Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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000 FXUS63 KDTX 282335 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 735 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .AVIATION... A STATIONARY STRETCHING DEFORMATION AXIS WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOR CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF OCCURRENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AN EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT. WILL BE MONITORING POSSIBLE LOWERING OF CIGS THIS EVENING AS OUTGOING RADIATIVE COOLING INCREASES...BUT ATTM MODEL DATA IS FAIRLY FIRM IN KEEPING CIGS HEIGHTS AT VFR THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE MAIN MIDLEVEL LOW CIRCULATION WILL FINALLY EJECT WEST TO EAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. INCREASED CONVERGENCE AND DCVA IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN FROM MID MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ATTM...THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I 69 CORRIDOR. AGAIN...LIGHT RAIN ACTIVITY WITH PERSISTENT VFR CONDITIONS. FOR DTW...PERSISTENT DRY EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS AT VFR BOTH IN RESPECT TO CIG HEIGHTS AND VSBYS TONIGHT. WILL MONITOR OBSERVATIONS THIS EVENING FOR ANY TRENDS THAT MAY CHANGE THIS THINKING. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOWERING CIGS OR LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FEET OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 339 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 DISCUSSION... SHEARED OUT UPPER LEVEL WAVE/PV ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING WEST BACK TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WHERE THE MAIN CIRCULATION/COLD POOL RESIDES. WHAT`S LEFT OF THIS UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TOMORROW...BOOTED OFF TO THE EAST BY THE STRONG PV ANOMALY TRACKING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN ONTARIO TOMORROW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FRIDAY NIGHT- SATURDAY WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE NEXT MOISTURE SURGE/SYSTEM LIFTS UP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. EXPECTING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS TOMORROW...AS THEIR APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING AS 700-500 MB COLD POOL OF -13 C TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LOOKING AT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AS WE ARE/BECOMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT...AS SEEN ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...BUT POTENTIALLY STILL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/FGEN TO KEEP A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS GOING AFTER 00Z. FEW IF ANY CHANGES MADE TO INHERITED TEMPERATURES...AS LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT OF DAYS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL...WITH MINS MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES..IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. INCREASING LATE APRIL INSOLATION WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW/MID 50S TOMORROW...AND NEAR 60 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE...HOVERING AROUND THE UPPER 50S...WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND INTO THE NEW WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HOLDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVENT THE THERMAL TROUGH FROM MODERATING TOO MUCH UNTIL POSSIBLY TUESDAY. THE NEXT STRONG WAVE WILL DIG THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY REGION TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT DROPPING THOUGH ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER LINGERING SHOWERS EXIT THE AREA ON SUNDAY THERE WILL ONLY BE LOW CHANCES OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THIS COLD FRONT. MARINE... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WILL SLIDE EAST AND LEAVE A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN MARINE AREAS WHILE MAINTAINING NE WIND...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DIMINISH IN SPEED. WAVE HEIGHT WILL RESPOND IN KIND AND DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THEN REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND BRING A NEAR REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF TODAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTHERN MARINE AREAS AGAIN WHILE MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND WILL AFFECT ALL AREAS. WAVE HEIGHT WILL LIKELY RETURN TO ADVISORY LEVELS BY SUNDAY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE IS SCHEDULED TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO START NEXT WEEK. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....CB DISCUSSION...SF/DRK MARINE.......BT YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

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