Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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000 FXUS63 KDTX 222300 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 700 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .AVIATION... //DISCUSSION... RESIDUAL STRATUS /NOW IMPACTING JUST FNT AND MBS/ WILL ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS SLIGHT WARMING ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HELPS TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. LIMITED MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS HELD SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE GOOD COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL THUS POSE THE RISK FOR SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO THURS MORNING ASSUMING THE ANTICIPATED CLEARING TREND HOLDS. SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE OFF LAKE HURON UNDER LINGERING N-NE FLOW WILL ADD TO THE FOG POTENTIAL... PARTICULARY AT PTK/FNT/MBS. ALTHOUGH NOT STRONGLY CONFIDENT IN FOG...THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME REDUCED VSBYS IN THE TAFS. FOR DTW...LESS INFLUENCE FROM LAKE HURON AND WARMER NIGHTTIME MINS IN METRO DETROIT WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. IN LIGHT OF COOLING POTENTIAL...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY TOWARD DAYBREAK CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE. //DTW THRESHOLD THREATS... * NONE. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 354 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE EAST COAST ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL JET INFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS THE CLOUD COVER AS IT EVER SO SLOWLY ERODES AWAY. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE DUE TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE BRINGING. HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY IN AND WILL RESULT IN HELPING TO CLEAR OUT CLOUDS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE EFFECT LEADING TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA TO THE LOWER 30S. WITH THESE PARAMETERS IN PLACE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY ONLY A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IS IN THE FORECAST AS MODELS HAVE VARYING OPINIONS ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALSO DEPEND ON HOW FAST CLOUDS CAN CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER NOTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE CLOUDS ARE STILL PREVALENT. IF CLOUDS STICK AROUND THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS COOLER AND IN TURN LEAD TO A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS TEMPS WOULD BE ABLE TO APPROACH THE DEWPOINT FASTER. LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY FAIRLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL GET FLATTENED BY A TRAIN OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN STRONG WESTERLY JET ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. IT WILL STAY UP ACROSS CANADA THOUGH AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SW CONUS. THE RIDGE WILL PUSH THE COOL POOL...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE EAST COAST...FURTHER EAST AWAY FROM SE MI. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SLOWLY INCREASE. OVERALL PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER SE MI INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH LITTLE MORE THAN AN ELEVATED FRONT WORKING ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TO START THE DAY THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO AROUND 9C BY EVENING. A WEAK SYSTEM WORKING ACROSS CANADA WILL SHED A PIECE OF ENERGY SE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE RESULTS WILL BE A SHEARING FGEN BAND WORKING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. ITS HARD TO FIND A MODEL SOLUTION THAT GIVES ANY CREDENCE TO THE FRONT AS IT STRUGGLES TO FIGHT THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE FROM THE RIDGE AS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WICKS AWAY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. CONTINUED THE MOSTLY CLOUDS FORECAST OVER NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS HOLDING UP AROUND 40 WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN OVER THE AREA WITH ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WORKING INTO THE AREA AS WELL. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THURSDAY APPROACHING 60...BUT A SHARP THERMAL RIDGE AROUND 12C AT 850MB WILL FOLD OVER INTO MI FRI NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS UP IN MID 40S. THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR EARLY SATURDAY. DESPITE LOW-LEVEL POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION FOR MOST OF SATURDAY...STILL EXPECTING HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 60S DUE TO DECENT MIXING HEIGHTS AND AMPLE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE BREEZY THOUGH WITH 925MB WINDS OF 30-35 KT SUPPORTING DECENT GUST POTENTIAL. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL CAUSE A COOL DOWN FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...DROPPING TO THE MID- 50S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR CLOUD POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION...BUT FOR NOW CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN RECOVERY IN TEMPS FOR MONDAY. STILL LARGE MODEL SPREAD WITH INBOUND UPPER TROUGHING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE TARGETED TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME FOR CHANCE POPS. MARINE... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL BRING FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO THE LAKES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THEY VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....SC SHORT TERM...SS LONG TERM....DRK/DT MARINE.......DRK YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

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