Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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171 FXUS63 KDTX 261924 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 324 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .DISCUSSION... Forecast area will continue to remain in a warm and humid air mass into the weekend. Most locations today are in the low to mid 80s with dew points in the lower 60s. This is producing cape values 1- 1.5k joules. Convection today so far has been suppressed by subsidence from mid level ridging and lack of any surface convergence. Some showers/tstorms have developed in the Thumb region from lake breeze convergence but these have struggled to do much. Weak mid level trough is currently over western lower Michigan. Some activity has developed in the past hour or so in this region aided by lake breeze convergence. The ridge currently over head will slide east while weak trough to west moves through this evening. This will help provide an increase in shower or thunderstorm development this evening though expect coverage to remain scattered as the area will also be under the negative influence of some right exit region subsidence from jet max over Wisconsin. The rest of the night will remain quiet overall with weak mid level ridging moving back in. Will still carry a small chc for a shower or storm as atmosphere will remain unstable and any meso boundary or disturbance could trigger some activity. Overall conditions will remain the same Friday through Saturday night as area will continue to ly between ridging along the east coast and troughing in the Midwest. Convection will depend on any meso boundary or disturbance in the southwesterly flow. Best chances for shower or storm activity will be afternoon and evening with heating of the day. Highs will generally be in the mid 80s and low mid 60s with the typical cooler daytime highs near the lake shorelines. Rain chances will hang around into Sunday as low pressure moves northeast over the northern Great Lakes region. As this low pushes northeast away from the area, ridging will begin to build in from the west giving the area a break from precip from Memorial Day through the middle of the week. There still remains the slight chance for some scattered showers on Memorial Day, however most areas should remain dry. Models are then advertising another low pressure system moving east across the northern Great Lakes at the end of the extended period as troughing looks to take hold once again across the area. && .MARINE... Several weak surface troughs across the region will sustain a chance of evening thunderstorms. The overall weak sfc gradient across the region will maintain relatively light winds through Friday. Thunderstorm chances will increase again Friday afternoon with another influx of moisture and instability. A couple of low pressure systems will track across the western Great Lakes and upper Mississippi Valley this weekend. These will sustain light south winds through the weekend while also providing a chance for thunderstorms. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1257 PM EDT Thu May 26 2016 AVIATION... The development of an MVFR/low end VFR strato cu deck has resulted from low level moisture and the onset of daytime heating. Continued heating during the course of the afternoon will slowly lift bases. Weak to moderate afternoon destabilization may lead to some scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon/evening...aided by mid level moisture pooling with the passage of a a weak trough axis in the 21Z to 01Z time frame. Given that the strongest ascent will be sliding north of the area and in light of recent regional radar trends...the chances of thunder at PTK/FNT/MBS look to be less than 30 pct. Low level moisture will linger across the region through the night. This may support some fog and/or low stratus development late tonight into early Fri morning. FOR DTW...The most recent regional radar loop is suggesting some redevelopment on the northern edge of the convection now tracking across Indiana. There is a chance that some of this convection will push into metro in the 21Z to 00Z time frame. If it does not reach the airport, there is at least a good chance that the southern sections of the D21 airspace will be impacted. //DTW Threshold Probabilities... * Moderate for ceiling 5000 FT or less this afternoon and evening. * Moderate for thunderstorms affecting DTW/D21 airspace late this afternoon and evening. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. Lake Huron...NONE. Lake St Clair...NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...DRC/SS MARINE.......SC AVIATION.....SC You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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