Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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000 FXUS63 KDTX 011040 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 640 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014 .AVIATION...
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//DISCUSSION... WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATOCU WILL ONLY SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE MORNING. CLEARING WILL WORK INTO KMBS BY NOON BUT WILL TAKE THE BETTER PART OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TO WORK INTO THE REMAINING AIRFIELDS. NORTHERLY GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS KNOTS WILL PERSIST UNTIL SUNSET THIS EVENING WHEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW SUSTAINED WINDS TO FALL BELOW 10 KNOTS. AN OCCASIONAL FLURRY WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT NOTHING WORTH A SPECIFIC MENTION IN THE TAF. //DTW THRESHOLD THREATS... * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5KFT
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION...
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ISSUED 321 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014 SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS REVEAL WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S BENEATH AN EXTENSIVE LAKE ENHANCED STRATOCU DECK. WINDS WITHIN THE WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUE GUSTING 30 TO 35 MPH PRODUCING WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. IN ADDITION, MODERATE INSTABILITY WITHIN NORTHERLY FLOW OVER LAKE HURON IS SUPPORTING LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, WITH FAR EASTERN AREAS STILL STRUGGLING TO CHANGE OVER DUE TO WARM ADVECTION OFF THE LAKE. THIS MORNING`S WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT DISRUPTION TO STRATOCU COVERAGE OVER WESTERN LOWER DUE TO SUBSIDENCE TRAILING THE PASSING MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THIS BAND OF SUBSIDENCE WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN NOW AND ABOUT 13Z, WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME COMPROMISING OF THE INTEGRITY OF THE CLOUD SHIELD, BUT INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND CONTINUED THETA-E FLUX OFF THE LAKE WILL BE AN OFFSETTING FACTOR AND WILL HELP SUSTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR ALL BUT THE WESTERNMOST AREAS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. DISSIPATION OF CLOUDS OVER MOST OF SE MI WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BUILDS IN FROM WEST TO EAST 18Z-00Z BEHIND THE DEPARTING THERMAL TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING MOST AREAS TO REMAIN SOLIDLY BENEATH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER AT ALL FROM EARLY MORNING LOWS SPELLING HIGHS RANGING FROM 36 TO 40...LOWEST ALONG THE GLACIAL RIDGE. WIND CHILLS WILL BE 25-30F FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL FORCE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO TRANSLATE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. ASSUMING COMPLETE EROSION OF LAKE CLOUDS BY SUNSET, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE. ANY LOCATIONS THAT HAVEN`T YET HAD A HARD FREEZE WILL GET IT TONIGHT. THERMAL TROUGHING ALONG THE SHORELINE WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT UP A BIT AND SUPPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS OF 25-28. WEST OF US-23, LOWS MAY FALL TO 20 DEGREES...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED UPPER TEENS READING...BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS PRESENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY SUNDAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 40S AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TOWARD THE WEST MARKING THE ONSET OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL PERSIST INTO MON NIGHT. A PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS THE WRN US WILL FORCE A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUN INTO MON...MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DESPITE LINGERING DRY AIR IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS ON SUNDAY...MODEL PLAN VIEWS SUGGEST A GOOD DEGREE OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLING OVERTOP THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND CASCADING ACROSS LOWER MI /SUGGESTING OPAQUE SKIES AT TIMES/. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THEN ADVANCE INTO LOWER MI MON AND MON NIGHT WITHING STRENGTHENING W-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL US. WHILE THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER ON MON...THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL WARMING STILL SUGGESTS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A CUT OFF CIRCULATION OVER NRN MEXICO TUES INTO WED...WHILE THE NORTHERN BRANCH REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND ROTATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MON NIGHT TO TUES TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM WAVES ROTATING INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...A GENERAL CONSENSUS REMAINS THAT SOME SEMBLANCE OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURS INTO FRI. THIS WILL SUPPORT A COOLING TREND DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. MARINE...MARINE OBSERVATIONS STILL SUGGEST GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL STEADILY DECREASE DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND WEAKENS THE GRADIENT OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH WILL THEN INFLUENCE THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND PROVIDING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. S-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WARMER AIR WILL ALSO FILTER INTO THE REGION WILL WILL BOOST THE STABILITY OVER THE LAKES AND WILL SUPPRESS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS. CLIMATE... RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 11/1: DETROIT AREA (DTW).....30F (1879) FLINT AREA (FNT).......36F (1996) TRI-CITIES (MBS).......38F (2002) RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR 11/2: DETROIT AREA (DTW).....22F (1951) FLINT AREA (FNT).......20F (1951) TRI-CITIES (MBS).......18F (1951)
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&& .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LHZ363-441>443-462>464. GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LHZ421-422. LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LCZ460. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ444.
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&& $$ AVIATION.....JVC SHORT TERM...JVC LONG TERM....SC MARINE.......SC CLIMATE......JVC YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

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