Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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000 FXUS63 KDTX 271932 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 332 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE EFFECTIVE MAINTENANCE OF A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WITHIN THE WESTERN CYCLONIC PERIPHERY PROVIDING YET ANOTHER DAY OF COOL/CLOUDY CONDITIONS LOCALLY. STRONG DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THE EXISTING CLOUD FIELD...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DAYTIME MIXING BEGINNING TO LIFT AND GRADUALLY SCATTER THIS DECK NOW ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. LATEST SOUNDING DATA AND RH FIELDS POINT TOWARD SEEING AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING BY EVENING...IF NOT A MORE AGRESSIVE CLEARING TREND...AS DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT FADES. CLOUD TRENDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD LESS CERTAIN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO COMMENCE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE FLOW VEERS SLIGHTLY TO NORTHEASTERLY...DRAWING IN THAT HIGHER MOISTURE RESERVOIR STILL RESIDING OVER EASTERN ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC. WILL HOLD THE LINE WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY MENTION FOR NOW...ALLOWING SUBSEQUENT NEAR TERM TRENDS DICTATE FURTHER ADJUSTMENT IN SKY CONDITION. LOWS A TOUCH WARMER TONIGHT...STILL LARGELY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S. && .LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY A MORE COMFORTABLE STRETCH OF SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMEPRATURES. PERSISTENT STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD LET UP BRIEFLY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY WITH TWO GOOD SURGES OF SUBSIDENCE AND A FAIRLY RAPID LOSS IN DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS LOSS IN LOW CLOUD SHOULD ONLY BE TEMPRORARY AS A GOOD SIGNAL EXISTS THAT LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL THEN BLOSSOM INTO A FAIRLY ROBUST DIURNAL CU RESPONSE. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE 60...ALTHOUGH AREAS HUGGING THE LAKESHORE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. MUDDY MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LACK OF FLOW IN THE COLUMN WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENCE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE LOW LEVELS ARE FORECASTED TO BE MARGINALLY DRIER WHILE THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR SOME MIDLEVEL MOISTURE TO POOL OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. STILL EXPECTING SOME MIDCLOUD...BUT BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60S ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL DATA IS AGGRESIVE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMUM DROPPING STRAIGHT SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE BOOK HASNT BEEN WRITTEN YET ON SPECIFICS WITH MODELS TRENDING WESTERLY WITH THE QPF AXIS. REGARDLESS...FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE AND INBOUND TRAJECTORY OF AIR PARCELS SUPPORT AN INCREASINGLY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A COOL DOWN AND RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BUMPED POPS UPWARD FROM THE OFFERED GRIDDED GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY COULD STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BEYOND SATURDAY...MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING OF THE NEXT RAIN MAKER...WITH A COUPLE MODELS NOT EVEN SHOWING ANY CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. && .MARINE... FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TOMORROW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES. WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING LATE TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY...AND THERE COULD BE ONSHORE COMPONENT TO SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER WAVES ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS. && .AVIATION...ISSUED 1247 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015 EXISTING EXTENSIVE MVFR DIURNAL CLOUD FIELD WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME THROUGH THE EVENING PERIOD AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FIELD MAY DRAW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF VFR CLOUDS. THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS TO DIP BELOW 3K FT WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE INVERSION LEVEL DROPS...PARTICULARLY AT PTK/FNT. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LOW THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ421- 441>443. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MR LONG TERM....SF/RK MARINE.......SF AVIATION.....MR YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

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