Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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000 FXUS63 KDTX 240935 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 535 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017 .AVIATION... Moisture will increase through the day as low pressure lifts toward the region. Simply a substantial component of mid-high cloud will define conditions through the morning period. Exception at MBS, where the southern periphery of LIFR stratus will linger into the mid morning period before lifting. Defined axis of higher moisture and instability will then pivot northwest across the southeast Michigan airspace through the afternoon hours. While the exact coverage of thunderstorms remains somewhat uncertain yet, the most likely window for TSRA to be in the vicinity is now highlighted for all terminals. Intermittent VFR/MVFR likely during this time, with dependence on heavier showers/storms to disrupt visibility. Low level moisture will increase more substantially in the wake of this instability axis toward evening, resulting a greater deterioration of conditions. IFR restrictions now appear possible within periodic bouts of showers for portions of the region tonight. Modest easterly winds today, becoming northeasterly tonight. For DTW...Greatest window for TSRA to lift across the airspace remains centered 17z-21z. Movement from southeast to northwest today. Existing northeast flow settles to east-southeast by midday, then back to northeast again tonight. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for cigs aob 5kft thru 18z, then high mid afternoon onward. * Moderate for tstorms to impact the airspace 17-21z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017 DISCUSSION... Large upper low continues to churn south-southeast across IA and will move into the OH and TN valleys by tonight. Then it slowly moves to the mid Atlantic sea board by Friday. A surface low will develop this afternoon over northern KY/southwest OH in response to wave rotating around the east side of the upper low and the 150+ kt jet streak. These features will be the main forecast issues over the next two days. While the models do exhibit some differences, the overall flavor is the same for southeast MI. Southeast MI is in a region of weak forcing this morning with weak moisture advection. This will keep the scattered high based showers or sprinkles around this morning. Enough indication of thin spots in the high clouds that there will be a few filtered rays of sun around daybreak before a thicker cloud shield develops. Modest Fgen and deformation will accompany a better theta-e advection pattern from the southeast over much of the forecast area this afternoon. Model soundings indicate possibly around 500 J/kg of ML CAPE this afternoon. This should be good enough for high likely or low categorical pops for this afternoon with showers and a few storms. With the clouds and showers around, will go toward the cooler MET numbers for highs. The best response with the strongest Fgen, deformation and jet forcing occurs this afternoon and early evening well south of the forecast area in Ohio and east central IN. This area will pivot into the forecast area from southeast to northwest during the overnight hours. While it will be weakening as it does move into southeast MI, enough confidence of at least light QPF to have mostly categorical pops tonight. Instability wanes tonight and will take out any thunder mention. Weak deformation axis and surface troughing remain over southeast MI on Thursday with the upper low centered over OH. With a little diurnal boost, expect scattered showers to develop quickly on Thursday. Again will leave out any thunder mention with modest lapse rates and little if any CAPE. Like Wednesday, clouds and showers should keep high temps close to the cooler MET numbers. Think we can squeeze a dry day on Friday as surface ridge builds over Lower MI with rising 500 mb heights. Sun will be slow to return with plenty of low clouds in the morning and mid and high clouds already returning ahead of the next weak wave in the afternoon. Speaking of that next weak wave, the NAM and Canadian appear to be having some convective feedback issues. Meanwhile the GFS and ECMWF keep the wave weaker and much further to the south. Will have just a chance of showers for the far south late Friday night into Saturday morning. Saturday afternoon is expected to be dry and warmer ahead of the next cold front. That front and the next wave still look to move through late Saturday night and Sunday as another upper low settles over the Great Lakes bringing more cool and unsettled weather for the beginning of next week. MARINE... Low pressure developing over the Ohio valley today will lift north and near southeast Michigan tonight. This low will remain in the vicinity through Thursday before exiting to east by Thursday night. This will produce a stretch of unsettled weather, resulting in episodic showers and a few thunderstorms during this time. A period of moderate northeasterly winds will develop beginning today. Despite the higher degree of stability over the waters, this favorable trajectory may generate stronger gusts over Saginaw Bay. This will warrant a small craft advisory today over the bay. The steady onshore flow will then result in waves exceeding small craft conditions for all lake Huron nearshore waters by this evening. The long duration will then maintain small craft advisory conditions through Thursday. Eastward exit of this low will bring improving conditions by Friday. HYDROLOGY... Low pressure developing over the Ohio valley today will lift north and near southeast Michigan tonight. This low will remain in the vicinity through Thursday before exiting to east by Thursday night. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will develop during this time, producing rainfall averages ranging from less than half inch north of I-69 to almost one inch towards the Ohio border. There may be locally higher amounts in areas that experience thunderstorms. Ponding of water on area roads and in other prone areas is likely, especially considering the widespread activity over the weekend that left the ground saturated in most areas. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT Thursday for LHZ421-422. Lake St Clair...NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....MR DISCUSSION...RBP MARINE.......MR HYDROLOGY....MR You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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