Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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000 FXUS63 KDTX 270953 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 553 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .AVIATION...
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Stability provided by the influence of upper ridging off the East Coast should keep the area free of SHRA/TSRA until at least mid- afternoon. Additional low-level moisture working into the area should allow a ceiling to develop below 5000 feet this afternoon as daytime heating builds, however. Instability building through the day and any small-scale upper waves left over from convection over the plains last night will then provide a chance for showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening. Activity should once again be very scattered in nature given lack of a more organized forcing mechanism, with best potential from FNT northward. Have removed PROB30 group for areas south of there as potential for SHRA/TSRA is now too low to be worthy of a mention in TAFS. Low- level jet pushing into the area this evening and overnight will keep low chances for SHRA/TSRA going. High dewpoints will bring potential once again for some visibility restrictions late tonight, especially for sites that see rain today/tonight. FOR DTW...Daytime heating and the arrival of additional moisture should allow a ceiling to develop around 4000 feet this afternoon. Chances for showers/thunderstorms to impact DTW or airspace will be low today and tonight. //DTW Threshold Probabilities... * Medium for ceiling at or below 5000 FT this afternoon and evening. * Low for thunderstorms affecting DTW/D21 airspace this afternoon through tonight.
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 310 AM EDT Fri May 27 2016 DISCUSSION... A warm, and increasingly humid, pattern will persist into Saturday night/Sunday as an upper ridge over the eastern CONUS amplifies downstream of an upper level low pressure system as it works from the southern Rockies into the central plains. This will allow temperatures to climb into the mid 80s area-wide both today and Saturday with minimum temperatures holding in the mid/upper 60s as low level moisture increases and limits radiational cooling to a greater degree heading into the weekend. Patchy fog will also be possible early this morning generally along/north of I-69 as the leading edge of this more humid air mass expands through lower MI. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will also increase to some degree as instability edges upward within the increasingly humid air mass. That said, most forcing will remain well west of the area, so any activity will be rather disorganized over the next several days. The aforementioned upper low pressure system then opens and lifts through the central Great Lakes on Sunday, providing better forcing for shower and thunderstorm development. With moderately unstable conditions expected during the passage of this system, suspect that Sunday will be the best chance of widespread rainfall during the next week. Even so, the convective nature will most likely leave some locations dry as the upper system itself passes north of the area and southern lower Michigan remains in the warm sector. Conditions cool in the wake of this low pressure system as the upper pattern evolves into a shallow upper trough over the area early next week. High temperatures will edge back to around 80 degrees. In the meantime, with less humid conditions, low temperatures will fall into the 50s to around 60. A second upper trough will then work into the area late in the forecast period as upper level low pressure tracks slowly east across southern Canada. This will bring a renewed chance of showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday after a quiet start to the week. MARINE... High pressure off the east coast and broad low pressure slowly tracking eastward through the Central Plains and Upper Midwest will maintain fairly light south to southeast flow through Saturday. A warm and humid airmass will promote fog development over the cold waters of Lake Huron today (especially northern portions of the lake), while also keeping chances for thunderstorms in the forecast. Thunderstorm coverage through Saturday is expected to remain fairly low. Low pressure tracking across Ontario will push a weak cold front across the Central Great Lakes Sunday into Sunday night. This will bring a better chance for thunderstorms as well as a modest increase in southerly winds Sunday afternoon and evening.
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&& .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. Lake Huron...NONE. Lake St Clair...NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....HLO DISCUSSION...DG MARINE.......HLO You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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