Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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000 FXUS63 KDTX 161107 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 707 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .AVIATION...
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//DISCUSSION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH WIND WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING AND BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR. THE AREA WILL BECOME IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS AND WILL MAINTAIN MODEST SE WIND THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME VIRGA INDICATED ON RADAR TONIGHT NEAR MBS BUT PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND WILL BE WELL INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. //DTW THRESHOLD THREATS... * NONE
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION...
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ISSUED 357 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014 SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT TODAY WILL START OUT WITH TEMPERATURES BOUNCING OFF NEAR RECORD LOWS THANKS TO CLEAR SKY AND CALM WIND ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. IT HELPS THAT DETROIT AND FLINT BROKE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS YESTERDAY AND SAGINAW WAS ONLY A DEGREE AWAY. NOCTURNAL RADIATIONAL COOLING IS ALSO BOOSTED BY A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW THAT MADE IT THROUGH THE COLD AFTERNOON YESTERDAY...AT LEAST OUTSIDE OF THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB. NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE THROUGH THIN CIRRUS DURING THE MORNING WILL HELP READINGS REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING BY NOON BEFORE THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN NOTICEABLY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S MAY BE A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE INLAND BUT LOOK SUFFICIENTLY RESTRAINED IN THE MID 30S NEAR LAKE HURON. DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORCE A SE WIND OVER THE REGION AND ONSHORE INTO THE THUMB. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE EXPANSIVE COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE PLAINS SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. MODEL OUTPUT DEPICTS DEEP SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE WAVE THAT WILL SUPPORT THE CLOUD FIELD AND SOME VIRGA BUT HIGH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT WILL FORCE PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH. DRY AIR WILL ALSO BE REINFORCED BELOW 800 MB BY THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE SURFACE HIGH NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THEN. THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY OVERCAST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES AT THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE. THIS IS WELL REPRESENTED IN THE GOING FORECAST WITH MIN TEMPS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. LONG TERM... UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE UNDERGOING DRAMATIC WEAKENING HOWEVER...IN FAVOR OF MORE ROBUST UPSTREAM ENERGY...WHICH WILL BE WORKING THROUGH OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE LOOSENING AND SURFACE LOW OPENING UP ON THURSDAY AS IT PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. LIGHT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPS ADVERTISED TO RISE TO 2.5 C SUPPORTING MAXES IN UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. AIRMASS IN PLACE LOOKS TO BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION WITH THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT DURING THE DAY. THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY YIELD DEVELOPING SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NARROW THETA-E RIDGE AXIS...AS HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO ARRIVE. 00Z MODELS (GFS/EURO/CANADIAN/UKMET) ALL IN AGREEMENT NOW WITH MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BY 00Z SATURDAY. STILL...GFS REMAINS A HOLDOUT FOR A STRONGER...SOMEWHAT PHASED SYSTEM. PREFERENCE IS WITH MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS (NON-GFS)...AND WILL JUST CARRY MODERATE CHANCE POPS DURING FRIDAY. WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT COLD AIR COMING IN TO SUPPORT SNOW...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HAVE SHUT OFF BY THE TIME THIS OCCURS. STILL...850 MB TEMPS WILL SNEAK DOWN INTO THE LOW NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS SATURDAY MORNING...PRODUCING A CHILLY START TO THE WEEKEND. HEIGHTS REBOUND QUICKLY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDING THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO MAKE A RUN TOWARD 60 DEGREES ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...AS 00Z EURO INDICATING 850 MB TEMPS RISING UP TO 8 C...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MUCH WARMER READINGS...BUT CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LEADS TO MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AT THIS TIME. MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS TODAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING...AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 30 KNOTS TONIGHT. LONG FETCH WILL LEAD TO WAVES IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON...BUT NO SUCH CONCERNS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON. LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS DIFFUSE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF RAIN.
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&& .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....BT SHORT TERM...BT LONG TERM....SF MARINE.......SF YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

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