Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS63 KDTX 242254
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
654 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016
Surface high pressure will drift over the area tonight and shift
slowly southeast through Saturday. VFR conditions will prevail due
to the dry low level airmass associated with this high. Winds will
remain under 5 knots overnight and become southeast 5-10 knots on
Saturday with return flow west of exiting high pressure.
//DTW Threshold Probabilities...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016
Cyclone positioned over the Pacific Northwest this afternoon is
modeled to progress east along the US/Canada through Sunday, lifting
to James Bay early next week. Expansive subtropical ridge remains in
place throughout this time, amplifying northward in advance of the
approaching wave. For tonight, expansive high pressure will support
clear skies, calm winds, and low temperatures falling into the 50s
areawide. Gradually warming column characterized by H85 temperatures
rising into the upper teens by Saturday evening and remaining there
through the weekend will support highs in the mid/upper 80s Sat and
around 90 Sunday and Monday.
As the cyclone advances into Northwest Ontario, very elongated warm
conveyor will spread into the area from the west during the day
Sunday. Dewpoints should have no problem rising into the upper 60s,
but uncertainty in high temperatures will be in play due to
encroaching convective debris. Cross-sections indicate the depth of
the moist boundary to be up to 700mb, which should prove effective
in eroding the existing cap. Thus, high chance to entry-level likely
pops remain in place despite the potential for only modest
destabilization (per non-NAM guidance). Given the lackluster wind
field, organization will struggle even if if a higher
insolation/higher instability scenario unfolds. As it stands, just a
low risk for marginally severe hail/wind. Another warm night in
the upper 60s/low 70s Sunday night as the warm conveyor exits but cold
front remains well upstream.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
Precipitation will clear Southeast Michigan late Sunday night/early
Monday morning. However, the actual frontal boundary will lag behind
allowing for another hot day by Michigan standards on Monday. High
will be in the mid 80`s over thumb and near 90 south of the thumb.
Humidity, which looked like it would remain high originally, now
looks as if it will lower behind the precipitation band. High
pressure builds over the region Tuesday with predominately dry
conditions through early Friday morning. Temperatures will cool down
for Tuesday and should remain mild through Friday with high`s in
the 70`s and low`s in the upper 50`s.
Surface high pressure will remain centered over the central Great
Lakes through Saturday. This will continue to bring quiet weather
and light winds. An area of low pressure will move through northern
Ontario Sunday, pushing a cold front across the region. Winds will
increase from the south Sunday as the front approaches, allowing
wind gusts over the nearshore waters to reach around 20 kts. The
front will slip across the area during the afternoon and evening,
triggering showers and thunderstorms.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
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