Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 291139

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
639 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017


Issued at 225 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

Clear and calm across E Iowa/NW Illinois. Latest sfc obs were
reporting temps in the mid 50s to lower 60s on avg.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

Today and Tonight

Large area of sfc high pressure to bring beautiful late July
weather. Highs are forecast in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows
in the mid to upper 50s. Expect dry conditions, light winds, and
comfortable humidity. Uttech

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

Surface high pressure under northwest flow aloft will prevail
Sunday through Tuesday leading to slightly below normal
temperatures, pleasant humidity levels, and no rain.

On Wednesday, 00Z model runs indicate a cold frontal passage
through the area, but details vary on the timing of the frontal
passage as well as rain chances. A dprog/dt analysis of the GFS
and ECMWF show little continuity or agreement in these details the
past few runs with, for example, the ECMWF more aggressive with
QPF on its 12Z run but the GFS more aggressive on last night`s
00Z run.

The common theme is a modest chance of thunderstorms since
moisture will be somewhat limited at least compared to recent
rainfall events. Regarding severe weather, CAPE looks decent but
both shear and low-level forcing are rather weak.

Variability in model output persists Thursday with differences in
timing the exit of rain. But there is agreement in a trend toward
cooler and drier weather Friday which could persist into next


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

VFR to prevail for next 24 hours with high pressure in control.
Light sfc winds tonight may lead to shallow ground fog formation
after midnight into early Sunday morning. Since it is toward the
end of the TAF period and confidence is low, did not mention in
TAFs yet. Uttech


Issued at 1150 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Evening Update...

Minor flooding continues to work its way south down the
Mississippi River. The crest has passed south of Gregory Landing
and levels to the north continue to recede. Earlier this evening,
New Boston dropped below flood stage and the warning there has
been cancelled. Keithsburg will be the next to go early Saturday.
This will leave minor flooding only for another day or two at
Gladstone and Burlington.

Moderate to major flooding is occurring on the Pecatonica and Rock
Rivers. Also, major flooding is forecast on the Wapsi near DeWitt.
See the latest flood statements for further information.

No significant rainfall is expected during the next 10 days.




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