Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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000 FXUS63 KEAX 212322 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 522 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... /346 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/ A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE SRN CWA WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCALLY POOLED NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT QUICKLY NORTH AND DISSIPATE. AS PER FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST...THE MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WELL TO OUR SOUTH...IN AREAS WHERE DEEPER MIXING HAS OCCURRED. GIVEN INTERVALS OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND STRONGER SE WINDS...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TONIGHT. GIVEN THE MIXY NATURE OF THE SOUNDINGS JUST ABOVE THE SFC...STRATUS WOULD LIKELY BE THE RESULT IF MOISTURE WAS DEEP ENOUGH. AT THE CURRENT TIME...MOIST LAYER APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR STRATUS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE NRN GRIDS TONIGHT WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS A LITTLE DEEPER. WILL INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG FOR THE NRN GRIDS TONIGHT AND LET THE EVENING SHIFT MAKE ANY REFINEMENTS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. MOISTURE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT ENE INTO THE CWA SUN NIGHT. MOIST IS LIMITED WITH FORCING RATHER WEAK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES...BUT WILL NOT INTRODUCE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...MAIN CONCERN IS LATE MON AFTN AND MON NIGHT WHEN A STG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE MODELS HAVE A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN MVG THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NR THE MO/IA BDR MON NGT AND TUES WITH A STG WAVE MVG AROUND THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MUCH OF THE CWA IS IN THE FAVORABLE QUAD OF A 90KT H3 SPEED MAX MON NGT WITH A MODEST PVU MAX ROTATING THROUGH MISSOURI. GIVEN THE LOW STATIC STABILITY AND MODEST QG FORCING...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR LATE MON AFTN AND MON NGT. IN ADDITION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCAPES AROUND 100 J/KG. DB MEDIUM RANGE (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED DIVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BRINGING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA. DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS EVIDENT AMONG VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...HOWEVER THE GENERAL IDEA IS CERTAINLY CONSISTENT. BY TUESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST WITH LOCATION AND TIMING BY THIS TIME FRAME KEY IN DETERMINING WHERE PRECIP IS MOST LIKELY AND WHEN ITS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR TUESDAY...SLIDING ACTIVITY EAST WITH TIME THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY QUICK ON ITS HEELS. LINGERING PRECIP/CLOUD COVER MAY BE EVIDENT THROUGH MIDWEEK AS SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALSO SERVE TO BRING SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL THEN TRANSLATE ATOP THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEK BRINGING WARMER TEMPS. DEROCHE && .AVIATION... FOR THE 00Z TAFS...WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND MAY ALSO HAVE SOME MVFR FOG. ONCE THIS LIFTS NORTH BETWEEN 03 TO 04Z...PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP THE MVFR VSBYS FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF GIVEN THE EXPECTED SMALL TEMP DEWPOINT SPREAD. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. PC && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$
