Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 300826
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
326 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 325 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

The heaviest of the rain is exiting the eastern part of the CWA this
morning however a couple more rounds of light rain are expected
today. The first will come this morning into the early afternoon as
a surface low lifts northward across eastern Kansas lifting a warm
front across the area. There will be a break this afternoon as the
warm wing of precipitation shifts north of the area and we become
dry slotted. However, one more round of light precipitation is
expected  this evening into tonight as the low, which will now have
become stacked, will finally shift eastward moving across northern
Missouri. Light wrap around showers will be possible as this low
move through the area with the higher POPs across northern Missouri.
A few light showers may persist into Monday morning across extreme
northern Missouri as the stacked low finally shifts northeastward
into the Great Lakes. Otherwise the area will dry out during the day
Monday. Highs Sunday and Monday will be in the 50s to lower 60s.

Dry conditions will be short-lived however as precipitation chances
will return Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will occur as a
LLJ overruns a stalled frontal boundary extending from southern
Oklahoma into northern Arkansas. The nose of the LLJ will be focused
across northeastern Oklahoma and southern Missouri where the
heaviest precipitation is expected to fall. However, the southern
portion of the CWA will be on the northern edge of the precipitation
shield and will receive more rain. Conditions dry out Wednesday
night and Thursday however, Thursday night there will be another
chance for precipitation as a upper level trough slides through the
region. Conditions then look to dry out and warm up for the weekend
as upper level ridging builds into the Plains. Highs will be in the
60s Tuesday through Friday before rising into the 70s for the
weekend.
weekend


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

IFR ceilings are prevailing at the terminals with these conditions
expected to worsen through dawn. LIFR ceilings will be possible
despite the rain moving out as plentiful low-level moisture
remains locked in the region. Another round of rain will move
through the terminal areas later this morning but looks like it`ll
clear out by midday as a dry slot takes over. Look for winds to
become southerly during the day, shifting more from the SW later
this evening as a low pressure system approaches the region.
Lowered ceilings are anticipated to move back in, along with
additional rain showers.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ057-060.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for MOZ031>033-038>040-
     043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...lg



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