829
FXUS63 KEAX 152337
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
637 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight into
Thursday.  Any storms that develop are expected to largely remain
below severe limits.

- Warmer and drier conditions expected this weekend into early
  next week. Cold front moving through the region Monday night
  could lead to strong to severe storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Zonal flow with ripples in the flow will continue to create periodic
chances of precipitation through the end of the work week. Broad
trough over the Northern Plains this afternoon is expected to shift
east into the Upper Midwest tonight.  Weakly capped atmosphere with
weak instability ahead of the approaching shortwave may be enough to
support the development of scattered thunderstorms through the
overnight as the wave passes to the north.  Increasing upper level
dynamics are expected tonight as upper level jet steak forms on the
leading edge of the upper level trough with  increasing lift
developing associated with the right rear quadrant of the upper
level jet.  0-6 km bulk shear is expected to be in the 25-30 knot
range much of the night, but with limited instability expect storms
to largely remain below severe limits. Mid level lapse rate remain
close to moist adiabatic, so the main severe threat appears to be a
strong wind gust with any stronger storms that are able to develop.
With a fair amount of high clouds remaining through the night, opted
to side with 50% model certainty for low tonight.

Weak instability and lift lingers across the area on Thursday and
could see a stray shower or thunderstorm redevelop ahead of a weak
cold front attempting to move through the area. The front is expected
to stall in an east/west fashion across central Missouri. Along and
south of the boundary, a weakly unstable atmosphere remains as
another broad short wave moves across the southern plains.  This
will result in additional shower/thunderstorm activity largely south
closer to the I-44 region.

Upper level ridge builds builds into the central and southern plains
through the weekend leading to warmer and drier conditions.
Increasing southerly winds on Sunday into Monday will lead to
effective moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico. Dew points
climb to near 70 degrees ahead of a cold front sweeping into the
region Monday night.  Thunderstorms can be expected along the front
Monday night into Tuesday, some of which may be severe.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Scattered showers are ongoing over NE Kansas and NW Missouri,
with these intermittently impacting STJ. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are likely later this evening, primarily in the 4z
to 9z time frame, with these occasionally impacting the
terminals. After convection clears to the east, MVFR ceilings
are probable for much of Thursday morning before returning to
VFR by early afternoon. Winds should remain light, with winds
turning northwesterly by tomorrow afternoon behind a cold front.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BMW