Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 252046
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
346 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 346 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

On the large-scale this afternoon...water vapor showing a nice
upper-level trough moving along the North Dakota/Saskatchewan
border...with an attended surface cold front stretching south
into the Central Plains. Out ahead of this feature...temps have
warmed into the middle 90s across the lower Missouri Vly...with
current heat index values ranging in the mid to upper 90s. Main
concerns going forward remain the likelihood of developing
convection during the evening and overnight hours...with potential
for localized heavy rainfall across northern portions of the fcst
area. For now...latest SPC mesoanalysis places better effective shear
values across the central Nebraska which with time...will slide east
into western and central Iowa as height falls spread east. From this
vantage point...best mid-level forcing looks to remain north of the
area and as a result...widespread severe will likely be hard to come
by across our region later today. That said however...cannot rule out
some stronger cells up across far northwestern and north-central
Missouri...and radar trends will most certainly have to be monitored.
Meanwhile...the atmosphere remains more than primed for efficient
rainfall production with PWAT values currently ranging between 1.8 -
2" across our area. Main limiting factor seen at this juncture
remains fairly poor forcing as mid-level energy remains north and
low-level flow ultimately becomes more and more parallel to the
incoming front overnight which should limit boundary layer convergence.
Regardless the trends will have to be monitored across north-central
Missouri where heavy rain occurred earlier this week. In any
event...weak convergence along with poor forcing aloft may limit the
areal scope of rainfall overnight however we can keep our fingers
crossed that some much needed rain occurs across our area.

Front to essentially stall across northern Missouri by Sunday morning
with fcst models in excellent agreement that we`ll see a resurgence
of convection during the late morning and afternoon hrs as
destabilization occurs. Models advertise better dynamics across the
area on Sunday as another yet/stronger mid-level wave approaches the
area. Again with precipitable water values remaining high...heavy
rainfall will remain a concern through Sunday evening. Weak wind
fields aloft should limit the overall severe wx threat...however a
few stronger cells with marginally severe hail and a strong wind
gust or two cannot be ruled out. Front lingers across the are Sunday
night right through Monday with convection potential gradually
sliding further and further south before the front finally clears our
area Monday night. This should allow for a reprieve in precip
chances along with cooler temps as high pressure noses in from the
north for midweek. Beyond this...northwest flow to redevelop over
the region as ridging again builds across the western U.S. This will
set the stage for cooler temps and renewed chances for precip as
several disturbances move across the region through the end of the
work week. With several individual systems expected...have
maintained chc pops right through next weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 106 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Main concerns with the 18z fcst package involve renewed chances for
convection overnight as a slow moving cold front descends across the
area. In comparison to earlier runs, today`s model runs have slowed
down the arrival of this feature with all pretty much suggesting
convection will develop after the 06z time frame and gradually push
south during the early morning hours. From this vantage point
however...the prevailing thought is much of this time frame will see
VFR conditions despite developing precipitation. As
such...introduced SHRA and VCTS mention at all sites during the
early morning with a continuation right through the conclusion of the
fcst as front stalls and additional convection develops after 12z.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...32



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