Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 232334
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
634 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 204 PM CDT WED AUG 23 2017

A stable air mass currently in place across the local area will
maintain dry conditions for the next few days, while surface
temperatures are expected to remain 8 to 10 degrees below normal
for mid to late August. The dry air mass will also maintain dew
points in the mid 50s to low 60s, keeping relative humidity
values at comfortable levels.

Clear sky conditions may give way to a thin cirrus canopy by the mid
morning Thursday as isolated to scattered storms develop overnight
across Nebraska and Iowa. Widespread cloud cover will return by
Friday as a weak shortwave trough clips northern Missouri embedded
within northwest flow, though dry conditions should remain in place
until Saturday evening for most of the area. At that time,
operational models have Tropical Depression Harvey making landfall
along the Texas Coast. While the storm system will remain near
the Gulf Coast through the weekend, moisture associated with
Harvey will wrap into the Central Plains, though may be deflected
to the west initially, upstream of a lingering surface ridge. By
Saturday night into Sunday morning, however, this moisture will
pool ahead of a cold front near southeastern Nebraska, which will
eventually cross into northwest Missouri Sunday morning. The
boundary should then push through central Missouri by Sunday
afternoon. Will need to monitor the trends for potential strong to
perhaps severe storm development along the front, depending on
the amount of destabilization realized based on the timing of the
frontal passage.

Dry conditions should then return through the early to mid-week,
depending on the track of Harvey as it continues to weaken by that
time. As of now, the remnants look to be absorbed into the upper
level flow well south of the local area, which will help to maintain
dry and relatively cool conditions through much of next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT WED AUG 23 2017

Only concerns at the terminals for this forecast package is the
potential for early morning fog, considering the clear skies and
calm winds anticipated through the overnight hours. Air at the
surface is drier than last night so potential isn`t quite as high.
That being said, KSTJ has the best chance for getting some
overnight reduced VIS.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Leighton


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