Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38

000
FXUS66 KEKA 281132
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
432 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THIS WEEK WHICH WILL PROLONG DRY WEATHER AND GENERATE HOT
TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN WARMER
THAN NORMAL WITH DECREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY WARM...DRY...AND STABLE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU LATE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF LIFTS
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND FILLS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE S PLAINS
BUILDS W. THIS WILL LEAD TO RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA. OVER
THE INTERIOR...VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 105 DEGREES EACH
AFTERNOON THRU THU. A FEW NORMALLY HOTTER LOCALES MAY TOP OUT
CLOSER TO 110 ON WED AND THU.

MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP...WITH THE STRONGEST
FLOW THIS MORNING. THE NAM IS DEPICTING ANOTHER WIND INCREASE OVER
THE N PORTION OF OUR AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE GFS HAS THE WIND MAX N
OF THE BORDER IN SW OR. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE ALL THE WAY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN AS
OFFSHORE WINDS KEEP THE COASTAL NORTHERLIES AT BAY AND BRING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE INLAND TERRAIN. MODEL CONSENSUS MAX
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BRING READINGS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 DEGREES AT KACV FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS LOOKS TO BE
POSSIBLE. RECORD HIGHS MAY BE ACHIEVED AT CEC AND EKA. HAVE KEPT
READINGS FOR EKA IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S DUE TO FORECAST LOW-
LEVEL WINDS BEING E VS SE. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR COASTAL
POINT FORECASTS AND RECORDS AND THE FIRE WX SECTION FOR FURTHER
DISCUSSION OF WINDS AND RH.

MODEL CONSENSUS IS ALSO WARM FOR WED. THE UPPER RIDGE IS STRONGER
FOR WED...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
A BIT BY THEN. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT MAX TEMPS UNCHANGED FROM
LAST PACKAGE...2 OR 3 DEGREES BELOW LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.

A BAGGY UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EPAC LATER IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE PROXIMITY OF THE SW
US RIDGE WILL KEEP READINGS GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTENING S
FLOW AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL ALSO ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO RETURN TO THE INTERIOR FROM FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW
IMPULSES WILL MOVE N OVER THE AREA...BUT TIMING THESE FEATURES
IS TRICKY THIS FAR OUT. MODELS ARE KEEPING THE UPPER TROF A BIT
FARTHER W THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND THIS MAY LESSEN THE IMPACT OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSES. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT NW
CA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW AND LOW
HUMIDITY. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT POCKETS OF LOW STRATUS/GROUND
FOG TONIGHT AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY AND ACV...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
BREEZY NORTHERLIES ARE LIKELY AT CEC DURING THE DAY TODAY. /BRC

&&

.MARINE...BRISK WINDS AND STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WATERS THIS MORNING DUE TO A STRENGTHENING THERMAL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS AT AREA BUOYS
EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATE SIG WAVE HEIGHTS OF BETWEEN 8 TO 10
FEET AT 8 TO 9 SECONDS...AND HAVE HELD RELATIVELY STEADY THROUGH
THE NIGHT. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BEGIN A GRADUAL WESTWARD SHIFT...WHICH WILL CARRY THE STRONGEST
WINDS FARTHER OFFSHORE. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO WILL BE
THE FIRST TO BENEFIT...AND WINDS/SEAS HERE WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
BY LATE THIS MORNING. AS OF 3 AM SEAS REMAIN SOMEWHAT LARGE AND
STEEP THOUGH...AND MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO SETTLE BELOW CRITERIA.
WHILE THE GENERAL TREND IS DOWNWARD...OPTED TO EXTEND THE
HEADLINES IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS UNTIL 9 AM...AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ONCE THE OUTER WATERS GALE WARNING
EXPIRES. NORTH OF THE CAPE...WINDS WILL BE SLOWER TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE COAST...AND AS A RESULT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
HAZARDOUS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. OPTED TO EXTEND THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WATERS INSIDE 10 NM UNTIL 9 PM...AS SEAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 7 TO 9 FT...8 TO 9 SECOND RANGE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH WINDS OF AROUND 15 TO 25 KT.

BY LATE TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECLINE NORTH OF THE CAPE AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FROM 30 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT GENERALLY BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTHERLIES DEVELOPING
ALONG AT LEAST THE MENDOCINO COASTLINE.  WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF TRANSIENT BUT LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLIES
AROUND POINT ARENA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL. /BRC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...INTERIOR AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
10 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND WED. RH VALUES WILL BE
ON THE DECLINE AS WELL WITH POOR NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FUELS TO CONTINUE TO DRY. MODERATE RIDGE-LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THIS WILL LEAD TO DETERIORATING FIRE WX
CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY IN FIRE WX ZONES 203 AND 204. WILL
CONTINUE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THESE ZONES THIS MORNING AND FIRE WX
WATCH FOR TONIGHT. /SEC

&&

.CLIMATE....FORECAST MAX TEMPS AND RECORDS FOR TUE AND WED...

LOCATION             TUESDAY      WEDNESDAY
-------------------- ------------ ------------
EUREKA (EKA)         73 (69/2000) 71 (68/1940)
CRESCENT CITY (CEC)  72 (72/2000) 71 (72/2000)

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING FOR CAZ003.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WED MORNING
       FOR CAZ003.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING FOR PZZ450.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING FOR PZZ455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING FOR PZZ475.

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.