Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 282237
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
337 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF MENDOCINO COUNTY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK MID LEVEL BOUNDARY SLIPPED BY LATE THIS MORNING AND
BRINGING SOME CLEARING BEHIND IT. TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AS A WEAK RIDGE BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO COOL EFFECTIVELY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS.
WITH THAT, TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THE SAME AS LAST NIGHT.
NO FROST ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. BFG

DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST COAST. ONCE AGAIN
TEMPERATURES MAY MAKE A RUN FOR 80F IN INTERIOR MENDOCINO COUNTY.
MOST OF MONDAY WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. STRATUS MAY REDEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN LESS SUNSHINE ALONG THE COAST
ON MONDAY.

THE MAJORITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH THE MONDAY NIGHT SYSTEM
WILL TRAVEL INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE SYSTEM WILL CLIP OUR REGION RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN
FOR AREAS PRIMARILY NORTH OF MENDOCINO COUNTY. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
RANGE FOR A TRACE IN SOUTHERN HUMBOLDT TO POSSIBLE NEAR A HALF INCH
IN THE MOUNTAINS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.

THE MODELS ARE LESS CONSISTENT BEYOND TUESDAY WITH THE ECMWF
INDICATING SEVERAL WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING INTO OREGON
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEMS MOVING INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON. HOWEVER
BOTH MODELS INDICATE SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO 4-5K FT. HAVE OPTED TO
MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME CONSIDERING
THE UNCERTAINTY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LIKELY BUILD BACK OVER THE WEST COAST
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. WITH VERY DRY AIR THE STRONGER LOW
LEVEL INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT BENEATH THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR COLD AIR
TO POOL IN INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE GROWING SEASON WILL RESUME
FOR ZONE 3...INTERIOR HUMBOLDT AND INTERIOR DEL NORTE COUNTIES...ON
APRIL 1ST. THUS FROST ADVISORIES/FREEZE WARNINGS WILL BECOME A
POSSIBILITY FOR THE INTERIOR EXCEPT FOR TRINITY COUNTY WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON DOES NOT RESUME UNTIL APRIL 15TH. /RPA

&&

.AVIATION...BASICALLY A GOOD FLYING DAY PREVAILED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. AIRPORTS REPORTED VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING
EVEN AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH LATE MORNING. THIS SYSTEM BROUGHT IN AN INFLUX OF MID-HIGH
CLOUDS. ALSO...A BUILDING RIDGE OFFSHORE...INTERACTING WITH THE
INVERTED LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTH TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND THEREFORE WAS THE CATALYST FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR AS SUGGESTED BY
GUIDANCE. TA

&&

.MARINE...THE BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE AND DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE 18Z
ASCAT PASS WAS MINIMAL BUT CONFIRMED HIGH END SMALL CRAFT WINDS
SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO THUS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOK TO BE
ON TRACK AND WERE LEFT UNCHANGED. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND STEEPEST
SEAS FOR THE NEARSHORE ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND CAPE MENDOCINO
AND NEAR POINT ARENA. WINDS WILL EASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE AND THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOP. OTHERWISE, A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
WAVE SYSTEM WILL HELP KEEP AN ELEVATED SEA STATE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ455-475.

&&

$$

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