Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 302212
AFDEKA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Eureka CA
312 PM PDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure aloft will prolong hot and dry weather
over the next several days. Interior temperatures will range from
near to above normal values for this time of year. Coastal
temperatures will remain more seasonal with morning cloudiness and
afternoon clearing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Much like yesterday, a few afternoon cumulus are developing across
the Yolla Bolly and Trinity Alps. Coverage thus far has been less
though, do to a reduction in precipitable water values and increased
mixing. This has helped dry out the low levels, with stratus having
burned off by late morning along the coast this morning. We do
expect some coastal stratus and patchy fog to once again develop
overnight, which should make it into portions of the Eel River
Valley as well. Temperatures will be near seasonal values.

By mid to late morning tomorrow, the coastal clouds will be on a
decreasing trend. Temperatures will be in the lower to middle 60s
near the coast, warming into the upper 80s to upper 90s across the
interior valleys.

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)

Slightly cooler temperatures with dry conditions will dominate your
weather through the weekend and into next week. A short-wave trough
will drop south across the region for Friday through the weekend. As
mid-level heights drop slightly, a similar response will be seen in
our temperatures across the interior, with afternoon highs cooling
to the upper 80s to lower 90s by early next week. This pattern will
generally persist through the remainder of the forecast period.

Given the trough is not that strong, and southwesterly winds will
prevail aloft (not a favorable wind direction for convection to
develop across Northwest California), soil moisture will continue to
decrease. If you have any fire-related activities planned this
weekend and especially on the fourth of July, please keep a watchful
eye on any open flames, as the potential for wildfires will continue
to increase due to the grounds continuing to cure. /PD

&&

.AVIATION...The marine layer was less extensive this morning
compared to the previous 2 days. Pireps confirmed cig bases to
tops ranged from 003-013/016 (300-1300/1600 feet). Clouds had
completely dissipated across the coastal areas by noonday. Inland
areas remained SKC. For air terminals near the coast, winds became
somewhat robust today, especially around CEC. This morning`s wind
profiler was quite interesting in that it showed low level winds
along the coast to be much stronger today than yesterday. History
and guidance keeps breezy/gusty WNW/NNW winds blowing across the
North Coast through mid-evening. Through the Taf period, marine
clouds will re-develop along sections of the North Coast this
evening. Winds will pick up in the afternoon again tomorrow, but
not as windy. Airfields in the Interior valleys and mountain areas
will remain VFR. /TAA

&&

.MARINE...ASCAT pass, ship, and buoy reports have confirmed GALE
FORCE winds across the waters last night and today. Strong northerly
winds and large steep seas will continue across the outer waters
through Friday as high pressure offshore interacts with a thermal
trough over the California interior. A GALE WARNING remains in
effect for the outer waters tonight through Friday night. Conditions
will be marginal for a warning on Saturday with gusts to 35 kt
expected. Seas will remain very steep and rough on Saturday and near
GALE conditions are anticipated in the outer waters (10-60nm from
shore) on Saturday. Northerly winds should start to ease below GALE
Sunday into Monday, however, seas will continue to be steep with
northerly breezes around 25 kt.

Closer to shore and inside 10nm, primary concern through Friday will
be very steep waves arising from the strong north winds in the outer
waters. Northerly winds have been howling around PT ST GEORGE, with
gusts to around 40KT. Even around Cape Mendocino inside 10nm, GALE
FORCE winds have been occurring as evident from the CDIP buoy
which has been up to 14 feet. Northerly wind waves from the NWPS
have been very close compared to the buoy observations over the
last couple of days and we will continue to utilize it for primary
guidance. Therefore, we will maintain the HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING
for the inner waters north of the Cape tonight. Conditions for a
warning will be on the outer fringes of the inner waters across
Mendocino waters and a Small Craft Advisory will be sufficient.

Seas should diminish slightly on Friday, however it will still be
steep and hazardous through Saturday and a SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY for
HAZARDOUS SEAS will be necessary. Winds should ease up more on
Sunday and Monday and seas should trend down some, though it will
continue to be steep and uncomfortable on both days. /DB

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory for winds until 5 AM PDT Friday FOR PZZ450.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Friday FOR PZZ450.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Saturday FOR PZZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Saturday FOR PZZ455.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Saturday FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

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