Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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FXUS66 KEKA 221235
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
435 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA. A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN MONDAY
BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THANKSGIVING. LATE IN THE WEEK
ADDITIONAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM(THROUGH TUESDAY)...RADAR AND SAT SHOWS THE STREAM OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THIS FRONT NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO...BUT COVERAGE MAY NOT BE TOO
WIDESPREAD WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE COLDER AIR ALOFT REMAINING
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS AFTERNOON MENDOCINO COUNTY
LOOKS TO DRY OUT A BIT MORE WITH MODELS SHOWING VERY LITTLE SHOWER
COVERAGE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE HILLS OF DEL
NORTE COUNTY. FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE INLAND VALLEYS DUE TO
THE RECENT RAINFALL SO HAVE ADDED THIS THE FORECAST. ALONG THE
COAST WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE FOG AWAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHILLY...BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT
FROST IN HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES WHERE WE ARE STILL
ISSUING FROST ADVISORIES. THERE LOOKS TO BE TOO MUCH MOISTURE AND
MIXING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE FARTHER INLAND IN TRINITY COUNTY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT A WEAK WARM FRONT
MAY PUSH INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS WARM FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND
DEL NORTE COUNTIES. THIS ALSO LOOKS TO BRING ENOUGH CLOUDS TO THE
AREA TO PREVENT FROST IN HUMBOLDT/DEL NORTE AND COASTAL MENDOCINO
COUNTIES. INLAND MENDOCINO AND TRINITY COUNTY MAY SEE SOME
FREEZING TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. EACH
NIGHT WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INLAND VALLEY CLOUDS AND FOG. MKK/RPA

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY. AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE ON
THURSDAY BUT MAY WEAKEN BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST. HAVE INCLUDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR DEL NORTE COUNTY ON THURSDAY. CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF
THE COAST. MODELS IN THE VERY LONG RANGE INDICATE THAT NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WILL LIKELY GO BACK TO A WET PATTERN BEGINNING ON
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. MKK/RPA

&&

.AVIATION...VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS SHALL VARY FROM MVFR TO IFR
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER NORTHWEST-NORTH WINDS BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INLAND. KML

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND TURN ONSHORE TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO RESPOND AS A
NORTHWESTERLY WAVE MAINTAINS 10 TO 12 FOOT SEAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NOW TAKE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AS GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES HAVE DIMINISHED
BEHIND THE FRONT. ELEVATED SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EARLY
HALF OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD SHALL KEEP
WINDS GENTLE. THEN AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK, HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MAGNITUDE OF
THESE WINDS SINCE MODELS EXHIBIT SOME DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING WITH
THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM. /KML

&&

.COASTAL FLOOD...SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
COMBINE TO BRING HIGH TIDES CLOSE TO 8.8 FT AT THE NORTH SPIT ON
HUMBOLDT BAY. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN KING
SALMON AND ON JACKSON RANCH ROAD IN THE ARCATA BOTTOMS AROUND THE
TIME OF THE HIGH TIDE NEAR 11 AM TODAY.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PZZ450-470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ455-475.

&&

$$

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