Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 141147
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
347 AM PST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO MAINLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER. CHANCES FOR
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND A RETURN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO THE AREA THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE IN
HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTY...ALTHOUGH SOME WILL LIKELY MAKE IT
AS FAR EAST AS TRINITY COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST
AREAS WITH UP TO A HALF INCH IN THE FAVORED AREAS. THE 06Z NAM IS
SHOWING CLOSE TO HALF INCH IN THE HILLS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY START TO CLEAR TONIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE QUITE A BIT OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS THAT LINGERS IN THE VALLEYS.

MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA. ANY LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
MONDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE
NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO APPROACH THE AREA BRINGING
HIGH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE 00Z MODELS WERE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE 06Z GFS HAS SLOWED IT DOWN SLIGHTLY. SO
CONFIDENCE REMAINS ONLY MODERATE ON THE TIMING. LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR
DROPPING SNOW LEVELS. CURRENT MODELS INDICATE SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP TO AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET. QPF OUTPUTS ARE STILL FAIRLY
DECENT AT THIS POINT SO THIS COULD BRING A DECENT AMOUNT OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATION PASSES.

FRIDAY MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. SATURDAY THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AROUND
THE AREA. SUNDAY THINGS LOOK TO CONTINUE THE DRYING TREND SO HAVE
POPS SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS ARE
HINTING AT BUILDING RIDGE BRINGING DRY WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA.
MKK

.AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV TODAY. THE LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL BE DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES.
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT KUKI
TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS A WESTERLY SWELL DIMINISHES. THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALL THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
NONE.

&&

$$

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