Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000 FXUS62 KFFC 290134 AAB AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 934 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .UPDATE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH CLEAR OR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BDL && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... MAINLY DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST TREND CONTINUES WITH ONE MORE COOL NIGHT BEFORE MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS IN EARNEST. AFTERNOON HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM AGAIN AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS RELATIVELY STRONG AND SKIES REMAIN PREDOMINATELY CLOUD-FREE. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD ALLOWS RAIN CHANCES TO CREEP BACK INTO THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/ EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. 20 LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE OVERALL PATTERN ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF WIDESPREAD MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...LINGERING TOWARDS 06Z SUNDAY. /FOR THE RECORD THE NAM REMAINS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER./ PW VALUES PROGGED TO BE NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 INCHES...DEFINITELY ABOVE AVERAGE AND EVEN ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE BUT STILL BELOW THE 99TH PERCENTILE. OVERALL THOUGH IT`S NOT LIKE WE`RE TALKING SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS. IT`S ONE OF THOSE HIGH POP-LOW QPF TYPE EVENTS /AT LEAST BASIN-AVERAGE QPF/ SO CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING AN ALL DAY /OR ALL-EVENING/ WASHOUT OR ANYTHING LIKE THAT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS VERY HIGH. ALL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA IN A CAPE MINIMUM THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT WITH CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO BETWEEN 2000-2500 J/KG SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE ARE STILL REMOVED ENOUGH FROM THE UPPER SUPPORT THAT THERE STILL ISN`T MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED POTENTIAL BUT OF COURSE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE THUNDERSTORM. THE PROBLEM IS THAT IT MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO RUIN OUTDOOR PLANS. LIKELY POPS STILL LOOK GOOD SINCE WE ARE TWO DAYS OUT BUT POPS WILL PROBABLY BE INCREASED AS WE GET CLOSER JUST BECAUSE POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGH AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING. BUT OF COURSE AS WITH SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORMS...PINPOINTING TIMING OR LOCATION WILL BE DIFFICULT AT BEST EVEN ON SATURDAY. ANYWAY...THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. SUNDAY LOOKING A BIT BETTER BUT THAT IS PARTIALLY DUE TO CONTINUED MODEL DISAGREEMENT...WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE BIGGER QPF IMPACTS IN NORTHWEST ZONES BUT THE GFS TRANSITIONING TO SOUTH AND EAST ZONES. HAVE KEPT TREND OF LIKELY POPS NORTH AND BUT INCREASED TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. OVERALL VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED OTHER THAN TO MAINLY REFRESH SOME OF THE PERIODS 4 AND 5 DATA. TDP LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... /ISSUED 341 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014/ EXTENDED PERIOD STILL CONTAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY BUT AT LEAST SOME MARGINAL IMPROVEMENTS TO MODEL CONSISTENCY NOTED THIS RUN. WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN A TRANSITION PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH KICKING OUT OF THE MIDWEST STATES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BE A KEY COMPONENT IN OUR LOCAL WX AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND PUMPS MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES SHOULD LEAD TO LIKELY COVERAGE OF STORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR. WESTERLY STEERING FLOW MAY BRING THESE STORMS FURTHER EAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY DEPICTED IN GRIDS AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS FOR A POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENT UPWARD. AFTER A FEW DAYS OF SUGGESTING SUNDAY AS THE WETTEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND...MODELS NOW AGREE ON SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE. FIRST WAVE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA LEAVING LOCAL AREA WITHOUT LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS IN WHICH THE ECMWF REALLY PICKS UP ON. STILL FEEL FAR NW ZONES WILL SEE BETTER THAN AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES GIVEN MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WILL GO WITH LIKELY BUT TRANSITION WITH A SHARP GRADIENT TO JUST LOW TO MID RANGE CHANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK BUT FEATURES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG. LIKEWISE...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOT ANYTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT AND ALL THIS POINTS TO CLIMO POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. DEESE && AVIATION... 00Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE 06-12Z...BUT NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM OVERNIGHT. //ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS INTO FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR WIND DIRECTION DURING DAY FRIDAY. BDL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 63 93 67 91 / 0 10 10 50 ATLANTA 68 91 71 88 / 0 10 10 60 BLAIRSVILLE 59 88 62 84 / 5 10 10 50 CARTERSVILLE 62 92 67 90 / 0 10 10 60 COLUMBUS 67 94 72 92 / 0 10 10 60 GAINESVILLE 66 91 69 88 / 0 10 10 60 MACON 64 94 72 92 / 0 10 10 60 ROME 63 93 67 90 / 0 10 20 70 PEACHTREE CITY 61 93 67 89 / 0 10 10 60 VIDALIA 67 96 72 92 / 0 10 10 50 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BDL

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