Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000 FXUS62 KFFC 180013 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 813 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW OVER CANADA AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA AND HAVE CONTINUED SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS SHOW AN MCS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE SHOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FOR INCREASED MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOMORROW. NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE...BUT THINK WE WILL SEE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE AND HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND. ATWELL LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS MORE CONSISTENT WITH INDICATING EASTERLY FLOW EVENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POPS SLIGHTLY /TO SLIGHT CHANCE/ ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA. ASIDE FROM THAT...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. 31 /ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/ THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION AND NO PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP GEORGIA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH GA MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STAYING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE DECIDED TO ONLY GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING THE PRECIP SOUTHWARD MONDAY/TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE COOLER TEMPS IN STORE FOR THE STATE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COOLER DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. 01 && .AVIATION... 00Z UPDATE... TSRA THUS FAR HAS REMAINED OUTSIDE OF THE TERMINALS AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME MFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL STREAM INTO EAST GEORGIA FROM NC TONIGHT BUT THINKING MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE FOR THE AHN TERMINALS WHERE OVC010 CONDITIONS ARE ADVERTISED. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW CLOUD SHIELD AS IT COULD APPROACH ATL TOWARD DAYBREAK. HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA IN THE GRIDS BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TAF. //ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE... MEDIUM ON LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL. HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS. DEESE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 63 83 63 80 / 5 10 10 10 ATLANTA 64 84 65 81 / 5 5 10 10 BLAIRSVILLE 57 79 56 76 / 10 10 5 20 CARTERSVILLE 58 85 60 83 / 5 5 5 10 COLUMBUS 65 88 66 87 / 5 5 5 10 GAINESVILLE 64 82 63 78 / 10 10 10 10 MACON 63 87 63 86 / 20 5 5 20 ROME 58 86 59 84 / 5 5 5 10 PEACHTREE CITY 58 85 61 83 / 5 5 5 10 VIDALIA 67 85 69 86 / 30 10 10 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEESE LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...DEESE

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