Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000 FXUS62 KFFC 210500 AAB AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 100 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 .UPDATE FOR AVIATION...
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PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 741 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017/ UPDATE... Have only made minor adjustments to hourly pop and wx grids for the next few hours as precip persists over portions of central Georgia. Otherwise, previous forecast looks to be on track. 31 PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 328 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017/ SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/... As mentioned in previous update, pattern expected to remain mostly the same during the short term period. Somewhat unusual to see temps this warm in late September. Isolated convection may become a little more widespread over all of north and central GA Thursday afternoon as it has today over middle GA today. Model blends doing quite well with forecast temps, dewpoints and winds but did increase PoPs a bit during the afternoon and early evening. Any tropical systems will remain well to our east. SNELSON LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/... A broad ridge pattern and associated surface high pressure over the eastern CONUS will draw ample moisture from the Atlantic Ocean over the region to begin the extended period. Impulses within the upper level flow will provide a focus for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday. NAM and GFS models show modest CAPE values between 1000 and 1500 J/kg in the afternoon on both days, along with PWATS as high as 1.5 inches which is slightly above normal for this time of year. PoPs will be highest on Friday afternoon and are expected to be within the 30 to 40 percent range on Friday afternoon throughout the region. Additionally, PoPs will be within the 20 to 30 percent range on Saturday afternoon. High relative humidity between 95 and 100 percent coupled with light winds will lead to widespread patchy fog across central and northwest Georgia during the early morning hours on Friday through Sunday. GFS/ECMWF/NAM/Canadian models continue to agree on Tropical Storm Jose and Hurricane Maria remaining well to the east of our region. No direct impact to the region from either tropical cyclone is expected to occur in the extended period. Maria will pass through the South Atlantic Ocean on Sunday through Tuesday. At this time the southeastern CONUS will be influenced by the subsidence zone to the west of Maria, which will result in a drier and more stable air mass over Georgia. PoPs will decrease to minimal values from Sunday into next week. Temperatures will remain above average throughout the extended period. KING/NListemaa
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&& .AVIATION...
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06Z Update... Patchy to areas of IFR-MVFR vsbys in fog 10-13z. Otherwise VFR conditions expected today into tonight. Sct-Bkn cu 4000-6000 ft with some higher layers. Surface winds calm or light NW to start then NNE during the day less than 10 kts. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms possible after 16z. Due to the high uncertainly, have continued a VCSH at TAF sites, except for AHN, 18-03z. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Low confidence for wind direction with respect to which side of north the winds will be and VCSH late afternoon/early evening. High confidence on all other elements. BDL
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Athens 89 67 85 65 / 20 20 30 20 Atlanta 88 69 85 68 / 20 20 30 20 Blairsville 83 62 80 60 / 30 30 40 20 Cartersville 88 67 86 65 / 20 20 40 20 Columbus 91 70 88 69 / 20 20 30 20 Gainesville 86 67 83 66 / 20 20 30 20 Macon 90 68 86 67 / 20 20 30 20 Rome 89 66 87 66 / 20 10 30 20 Peachtree City 89 67 85 66 / 20 20 30 20 Vidalia 90 70 88 69 / 30 30 30 20
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&& .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ AVIATION UPDATE...BDL

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