Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000 FXUS62 KFFC 291926 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST. NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. 41 .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE. BDL PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED. 01 && .AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... EXPECT VFR INTO THE EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CEILINGS AROUND 050 BY EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR TOWARD MORNING WITH SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE TAF SITES. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO CENTRAL GA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE MONDAY AND INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MID MORNING. //ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS BUT MEDIUM ON MORNING CEILINGS. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 42 68 43 77 / 40 60 0 5 ATLANTA 46 67 46 74 / 40 60 0 30 BLAIRSVILLE 41 61 37 70 / 60 70 0 5 CARTERSVILLE 46 68 42 73 / 60 70 0 30 COLUMBUS 48 72 50 76 / 30 50 20 30 GAINESVILLE 45 65 43 72 / 60 60 0 10 MACON 45 70 46 75 / 20 40 10 20 ROME 47 68 41 74 / 60 70 0 30 PEACHTREE CITY 46 68 43 75 / 40 60 5 30 VIDALIA 41 72 50 78 / 10 40 20 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...41 LONG TERM....BDL AVIATION...41

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