Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000 FXUS62 KFFC 311929 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 329 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA BUT ALL IN ALL A MUCH DRIER DAY THAN YESTERDAY. MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD HELP TO KEEP PRECIP TO A MINIMUM AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LACKING. THERE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE FAR E AND SE COUNTIES WITH SOME ADDED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TUESDAY SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THAT AREA OF THE CWA. HIGH TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS TUESDAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S AND 70S. 01 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER IN THE SOLUTION FOR THE LONG TERM. FOR THIS REASON HAVE NOT MADE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... 17 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015/ LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LONG TERM PORTION BEGINS WITH A RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN IN PLACE...A STARK CONTRAST FROM WHERE WE COULD HAVE BEEN HAD ERIKA BECOME A MAJOR PLAYER. INSTEAD...590DM UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE LOCAL AREA WITH A GOOD DEAL OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE TO KEEP POPS AT OR BELOW CLIMO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EXTREME SE CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE NORTHERN FRINGES OF RESIDUAL ERIKA MOISTURE LOOKS TO PROVIDE A JOLT TO POP CHANCES WITH LOW END LIKELY PLANNED FOR WED AFTERNOON. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY IS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES BREAK DOWN A BIT. BUT NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS OF NOTE TO IMPACT THE REGION AND WITH ONLY MODEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES...WILL HOLD POPS IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE. BLEND IS GIVING ME SOME MAX TEMPS THAT SEEM A LITTLE LOW EVEN WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW AND PLAN TO TWEAK THOSE UP JUST A TOUCH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NE STATES LOOKS TO BRING A WEDGE SCENARIO TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND THIS PATTERN REALLY WILL HOLD TEMPS IN CHECK WHILE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. USING MOISTURE FIELDS FOR POPS...COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME LIKELY COVERAGE FOR THIS PATTERN BUT THIS FAR OUT WILL LIMIT TO HIGH END CHANCE FOR THE EASTERN SECTIONS. DEESE
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&& .AVIATION...
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18Z UPDATE... IFR-MVFR CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFTING AND SCT OUT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ONCE CEILINGS GO VFR THEY SHOULD STAY THERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OUT OF THE NW BUT SHOULD TURN TO THE NE AND EVENTUALLY EAST THROUGH 12Z TUE. WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO STAY 10KT OR LESS. //ATL CONFIDENCE... 18Z UPDATE... CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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ATHENS 69 90 70 91 / 10 20 20 30 ATLANTA 71 90 72 90 / 10 20 20 30 BLAIRSVILLE 63 84 64 86 / 20 30 10 20 CARTERSVILLE 67 90 69 92 / 10 20 10 20 COLUMBUS 71 91 73 92 / 10 20 20 20 GAINESVILLE 69 88 71 89 / 10 20 10 30 MACON 70 90 72 91 / 10 20 20 30 ROME 67 90 69 91 / 10 10 10 20 PEACHTREE CITY 68 89 70 90 / 10 20 20 30 VIDALIA 72 91 73 90 / 10 50 30 40
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&& .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...01

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