Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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527 FXUS62 KFFC 250135 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 935 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 .UPDATE... A few remnant outflow boundaries could trigger some showers and possibly isolated thunderstorm or two through this evening...along with sea breeze front in the southeast. Not expecting much after midnight so have continued previous trend of slight pops area-wide leading up to. Some patchy fog in early morning for mainly areas that received some spotty precip. Previous discussion follows... BAKER && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 829 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016/ .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/... Isolated convection having a hard time getting ramped-up this afternoon but should continue to slowly increase in strength and coverage for the next couple of hours before diminishing. Still not anticipating more than low-end scattered coverage and severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time. Very little appreciable change to the overall pattern through the short-term forecast period. Forecast area remains under weak upper- level ridging and on the western periphery of the western Atlantic surface ridge. Models also continue to show some weak surface troughiness on the northwest side of ridge over the forecast area persisting through the period as well. All of this adds up to little change in the general forecast trends through Monday night with near to slightly above seasonal normal lows and above seasonal normal high temperatures with isolated to scattered diurnal convection. Instability remains marginal at best for any strong to severe storms. Small area of the east-central Georgia portion of the forecast area flirting with Heat Advisory level Heat Index values this afternoon however the area is small and not expected to expand significantly. Forecast Heat Index values tomorrow are similar or slightly below todays values so I do anticipate an advisory will be needed at this time. 20 && .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/... No major changes were made to the extended period as the typical summer-time pattern continues with mainly isolated to scattered diurnally driven convection expected each day... and above normal temperatures continue. See the previous discussion below. 39 PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION.../Issued 348 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016/ LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/... An upper level ridge will continue across the southern Appalachians Monday night and this should keep showers and thunderstorms mainly diurnal. However the NAM continues pops after midnight with greater moisture under the ridge. The upper ridge drifts a little S over the area for Tuesday. However plenty of moisture and instability will continue chances for mostly diurnal showers and storms favoring N GA. Another hot day with high temperatures in the 90s except for mid to upper 80s for portions of the mountains. Heat indices will range 100-105 for a large portion of central and E GA. The upper level ridge pattern continues for Wednesday with mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms favoring N GA. Most high temperatures will again be in the 90s except for mid to upper 80s for portions of the mountains. The upper ridge shifts some to the se for Thursday...more so on the GFS than the European and the GFS has more moisture for N and W GA than the European. This will still favor N GA for showers and storms. The GFS minimizes the upper ridge for Friday and Saturday with more moisture across the area while the European holds the ridge in more with less moisture. This will still favor N GA with the greatest chances for showers and storms. BDL && .AVIATION... 00Z Update... Mainly VFR conditions expected with slight chance of some early morning MVFR VSBYS but too low to include in TAF. Otherwise just some initial lingering VCSH then expect mostly clear skies and light SW to calm winds overnight. Then again a SCT-BKN 4-5 kft deck Monday with afternoon TSRA chance similar to today. Winds stay SW mainly under 7 kts. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... High on all elements. Baker && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 73 95 73 95 / 20 30 30 30 Atlanta 74 93 74 93 / 20 40 30 30 Blairsville 68 90 69 88 / 20 40 30 50 Cartersville 71 94 71 93 / 20 40 30 40 Columbus 75 95 75 94 / 20 30 30 30 Gainesville 74 94 74 92 / 20 40 30 30 Macon 73 95 73 96 / 20 30 20 30 Rome 72 95 72 94 / 20 40 30 50 Peachtree City 70 93 71 93 / 20 40 30 30 Vidalia 73 95 73 96 / 20 20 20 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...20/Baker LONG TERM....39 AVIATION...Baker

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