Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000 FXUS62 KFFC 232158 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 458 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 .UPDATE...
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Climate section has been corrected below. Corrections were made to the KATL and KMCN maximum temperature records for 02-24. These locations set new records for this date in 2017. 31
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION...
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/Issued 245 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018/ SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/... High pressure off the SE coast will continue to usher in moist southerly flow through the period. As a trough digs into central CONUS, this will start to suppress the current ridge in place. This will also supply higher PWats to the area early Saturday. Therefore, we expect CU development to erode by the evening hours with some mid/high level clouds moving into the region well ahead of the main system to the west. A piece of energy riding between the incoming trough and exiting ridge will aid in better precipitation coverage across far north GA by early tomorrow morning. Some guidance is suggesting we will saturate quickly across the area resulting in scattered showers during the morning hours, expanding farther south...although coverage looks quite minimal through the remainder of tomorrow afternoon. The front associated with the trough will slowly approach Sunday morning with a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms expected to edge closer to the NW tier near sunrise Sunday. Given the lack of instability, only have a mention of isolated thunder associated with the heavier shower activity. Fog tomorrow morning may be possible yet again. However, the overall extent does not seem as widespread as compared to today. Still thinking portions of east central up toward Athens will see some reduced visibilities, but this should erode through mid-morning. With the wind increasing from the south in the morning, there should be a bit more mixing at the surface to avoid stagnant low level moisture. Temperatures will continue to be above normal through the period. 26 LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/... Main adjustment was to increase some categorical pops with advancement of slow moving cold front Sunday and then have a slightly less progressive (already slow) trend to decrease pops from the NW later Monday. Still have a portion of the area in a Marginal Risk for extreme NW late Saturday and then centered along the I-85 corridor for Sunday. Thinking isolated threat cannot be ruled out despite meager instability since deep layer shear is supportive. Guidance has large discrepancies on when moisture field pushes east of the area with midweek disturbances so did not change this portion of the previous forecast. Otherwise minor adjustments made per latest model blend. Previous discussion follows... Baker PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 315 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018/ LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/... A rather active wet pattern looks to be in store this long term period with 2 rounds overall expected. The first round will be increasing Saturday night and Sunday and continuing Sunday night and diminishing Monday. This will be due to a cold front moving into the area on Sunday with a moist SW flow aloft associated. It is unclear if the front will stall across the area as the European model is indicating, with a wave on the front forecast to move across the area on Monday ending the rain chances. Or, the front just moves slowly E and S as the GFS is indicating. In the both cases, a moist SW upper flow is providing deep moisture. Both models end the precip during the day on Monday. There is some instability associated across the area and low level wind shear across mainly n GA early on Sunday. A slight chance or a chance of thunderstorms can be expected into Monday. There looks to be a break in the rain chances Monday night and Tuesday before the second round of wet weather begins. The GFS and European models are rather consistent with deep moisture returning with overrunning southerly flow kicking in Tuesday night and for the most part, continuing Wednesday before another cold front moves to the area on Thursday with some thunderstorm chances Wednesday night and Thursday. Rain chances will ending quickly either late Thursday or early Thursday night. N GA will be the target for the greatest rainfall with both rounds and conditions will be monitored for any flooding potential. Severe storm potential for n GA is low but not zero during round 1 and will be monitored as well. For the most part, temperatures will continue well above normal this low term period. BDL CLIMATE... Records for 02-23 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 79 2012 34 1989 57 1922 18 1939 1980 KATL 79 1980 32 1901 62 1909 19 1939 KCSG 83 1996 37 1989 67 1962 18 1963 KMCN 81 1980 37 1901 66 1909 22 1963 1909 Records for 02-24 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 81 1930 37 1947 58 1944 19 1989 1967 1947 KATL 78 2017 35 1907 64 1890 17 1989 1947 KCSG 81 1930 38 1901 61 1979 21 1989 KMCN 81 2017 36 1901 62 1961 18 1901 Records for 02-25 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 80 1930 34 1974 59 1992 8 1967 1967 KATL 78 1996 26 1894 62 1890 9 1967 KCSG 82 1930 36 1967 65 2001 17 1967 KMCN 82 1930 35 1914 62 1918 14 1967 AVIATION... 18Z Update... Cigs and vsbys have finally come up to MVFR/VFR criteria this early afternoon. This was after much of the region was socked in by low level moisture. Expect lingering mid level stratus to erode with shallow CU development through the remainder of the afternoon. Winds will be out of the south between 4-7kts. The low/mid level cigs will erode this evening with high clouds moving in during the early portion of the overnight. As the surface high offshore retreats farther east and better moisture feed moves into the region, expect increasing cloud coverage and lowering decks. Fog/stratus development looks possible again tomorrow, but mainly across east central/northern GA. Coverage may be more limited due to the increase southerly wind speed. Expect low-end VFR cloud coverage through tomorrow afternoon. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Confidence Low to Medium on morning cigs/vsbys. Confidence High on all other elements. 26
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 59 78 63 74 / 10 20 20 80 Atlanta 61 78 63 72 / 20 20 20 90 Blairsville 58 72 59 65 / 30 30 40 90 Cartersville 60 77 62 67 / 20 20 30 90 Columbus 61 80 65 74 / 30 10 20 70 Gainesville 59 74 61 69 / 20 20 20 80 Macon 60 81 62 77 / 5 20 20 60 Rome 61 78 62 67 / 20 20 60 90 Peachtree City 59 78 63 71 / 20 20 20 90 Vidalia 62 81 62 82 / 5 10 10 40 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....BDL/Baker AVIATION...26

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