Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000 FXUS62 KFFC 251857 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 257 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/... Upper low off the North Carolina coast will continue to pull away taking what moisture is left with it. Skies will become clear tonight as a weak upper ridge builds over the CWA. The next system is already dropping into the southern plains and will start spreading low level moisture in the form of clouds into the CWA late tonight, mainly over west central Georgia. However dry air aloft will remain in place and as soon as mixing occurs Wednesday morning the clouds should dissipate. All models agree with a short wave being kicked out of the main trough and moving into the Tennessee Valley late Wednesday night. This will bring increasing pops to northwest GA late Wednesday night. MOS guidance temps look reasonable although have made minor adjustments based on local bias tables. 17 .LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/... Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance. Still decent chances for showers and storms on Thursday. The risk for severe storms still looks to be marginal. BDL PREVIOUS GUIDANCE... Dry conditions from the short term period will carry over into the long term for a brief period of time. On Wednesday night...a weak mid level shortwave ridge will be pushing east of the local area...with associated weak area of sfc high pressure also moving east with it into the Atlantic. Although conditions will remain dry into the very early morning hours Thursday...a cold front will be approaching from the west. Plenty of instability along and in the near vicinity of the frontal boundary will help sustain thunderstorm activity. As of right now...widespread severe weather does not seem likely...however enough shear in the vicinity of a LLJ across northwest and portions of north central Georgia may be enough for isolated severe weather in the morning hours. This isolated threat may shift to central Georgia Thursday afternoon as better shear moves into this area ahead of the frontal boundary and may be able to work in tandem with diurnal heating. Main threats Thursday look to be gusty winds and hail /as mid level lapse rates expected to remain over 6C/km/...though a brief...very isolated spinup isn`t out of the question across northwest Georgia Thursday morning /0-1km shear >30kts with dewpoints rising to near 60/. At least a portion of this frontal boundary will stall across Georgia Thursday night into Friday as the parent system moves well north. As this occurs...a closed mid level low will begin developing across the Southern Rockies within a broad cyclonic flow regime. The digging nature of this feature will help build a midlevel subtropical ridge into the Southeast /with Bermuda sfc high also building into the region/. This will lift the stalled frontal boundary north as a warm front and push a rather moist and unstable /dewpoints perhaps mid-upper 60s/ airmass into the Southern US. This unstable airmass will promote the development of diurnally driven thunderstorm activity Friday through Sunday...where warm frontal forcing/orographic forcing will likely also enhance lift for thunderstorms on Friday across far north Georgia. Anything severe Fri-Sun would be of the pulse variety at this point. As the closed low induces sfc cyclogenesis over the Southern Plains this weekend...it will pivot northeast into the Great Lakes by early next week. This will push another cold front towards the area Monday. Too early to determine severe potential...though shear improves with better upper level jet support. A return to stable and cooler conditions will follow this fropa just outside of the extended. Kovacik && .AVIATION... 18Z Update... VFR conditions through the forecast. FEW-SCT cu still around but should dissipate as the drier air aloft mixes down. A few cu with initial lifting Wednesday morning although CSG could see a more SCT deck late tonight. Cu field will dissipate during the late morning Wednesday. Winds will be gusty and northwest this afternoon, becoming near calm or calm tonight and then south to southwest Wednesday. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... High on all elements. 17 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 57 85 61 80 / 0 0 10 70 Atlanta 60 83 63 78 / 0 0 10 70 Blairsville 51 82 56 75 / 0 0 10 70 Cartersville 53 86 62 78 / 0 0 20 60 Columbus 61 85 63 82 / 0 0 10 70 Gainesville 59 83 62 77 / 0 0 10 70 Macon 56 86 60 83 / 0 0 5 70 Rome 54 86 61 78 / 0 0 30 70 Peachtree City 54 83 61 79 / 0 0 10 70 Vidalia 59 86 63 87 / 0 0 5 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....BDL AVIATION...17

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