Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000 FXUS62 KFFC 011137 AAA AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 737 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS DOMINANT FEATURE OVER ERN CONUS DURING SHORT TERM PERIOD. TROUGH AXIS STILL PROGGED TO REMAIN STATIONARY WEST OF THE STATE THRU AT LEAST SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL COOL AIR STILL IN PLACE THIS MORNING ENHANCING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...BUT SHOULD ERODE SOME TODAY. TEMPS AND SFC-BASED INSTABILITY YESTERDAY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-20. HAVE ADJUSTED GUIDANCE TEMPS AND WX GRIDS FOR TODAY FOR SIMILAR REASONS. NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE STORMS BUT COULD SEE ISOLD STORMS BECOME STRONG. HEAVY RAIN ALSO A THREAT THOUGH OBSERVED AND FCST SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING EXTREME PW COMPARED TO NORMAL VALUES...AROUND 75TH PERCENTILE ON 00Z FFC SOUNDING. MODEL AND WPC GUIDANCE QPF ALSO KEEPING HIGHER AMOUNTS OUTSIDE OF CWA. SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE ABOUT THE SAME OR A LITTLE HIGHER SATURDAY. DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN ANY ONE AREA. MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE TSRA THAN PREV DAYS ON SAT BUT LOCATION/COVERAGE/TIMING AGAIN WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON MORNING SHRA AND CLOUDS. MODIFIED BIAS-CORRECTED BLEND FOR TEMPS BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD/PRECIP AREAS. TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE WELL EAST OF THE STATE BASED ON TPC AND MODEL GUIDANCE. SNELSON LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A MOIST UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TUESDAY. GFS AND EUROPEAN BEGIN TO DIFFER THURSDAY WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE EUROPEAN WANTING MORE OF A WEAK RIDGE. HIGHEST POPS FAVORING CENTRAL GA WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE INTO TUESDAY. POPS THEN FAVORING MORE TOWARD CLIMO FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIP WILL STILL HAVE A DIURNAL TREND BUT MAY NOT NECESSARILY END AT NIGHT. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FAVORING ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND GETTING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FAVORING NEAR TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BDL && .AVIATION... 12Z UPDATE... IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR AFTER 14-15Z. ANY PRECIP THIS MORNING AFTER 15Z SHOULD BE LIGHT...USED VCSH TO COVER THIS. BETTER CHC OF SCT SHRA AFTER 18-19Z. SOME CONCERN ABOUT WHETHER TSRA WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND INSTABILITY DO NOT THINK COVERAGE OF TSRA WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN TEMPO AT ATL METRO AIRPORTS AND KAHN. COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF TSRA OVER MIDDLE GEORGIA BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT TEMPO OR PREVAILING TSRA. ANOTHER IFR CIG EVENT LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AFTER 08Z SAT. //ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... LOW CONFIDENCE ON TSRA LIKELIHOOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS. SNELSON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 84 68 84 69 / 50 40 50 50 ATLANTA 84 69 84 70 / 40 40 50 40 BLAIRSVILLE 78 61 78 63 / 60 40 50 40 CARTERSVILLE 85 66 85 67 / 40 40 60 40 COLUMBUS 89 72 87 72 / 40 30 50 50 GAINESVILLE 79 68 81 69 / 50 40 50 40 MACON 87 69 85 71 / 40 40 50 50 ROME 85 68 85 67 / 40 40 60 40 PEACHTREE CITY 86 68 86 68 / 40 40 50 50 VIDALIA 92 73 90 73 / 50 40 60 50 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SNELSON LONG TERM....BDL AVIATION...SNELSON

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