Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000 FXUS62 KFFC 062353 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 753 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE. LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST AND DAMPEN A BIT OVERNIGHT. THE MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY TOMORROW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. HI-RES MODELS STILL NOT PROGGING VERY ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...SO THE SCT POPS SHOULD HOLD. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. BOTH THE WRF AND THE ARW SHOW A CLUSTER OF STORMS DIPPING SOUTHEAST IN THE FLOW EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THIS WILL OCCUR...SO WILL ONLY KEEP POPS ISOLD/SCT FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TOMORROW AND RANGE FROM NEAR 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. NLISTEMAA LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE. BDL PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES INCLUDING THE LOCAL AREA ALLOWING FOR SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THIS RIDGE SO WOULD STILL EXPECT LOW END SCATTERED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. PRETTY MUCH THIS SAME PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THU AND FRI AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN BUT NO REAL CHANGE IN THE MOISTURE PROFILE ALL POINTS TO AT OR BELOW CLIMO POPS THROUGH WEEKS END. BY THE WEEKEND...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD AND STRENGTHENS. WOULD IMAGINE MODELS ARE BEHIND THE CURVE ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SEEM TOO KEEN ON GENERATING CONVECTION THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH SUBSEQUENT RUNS...IF RIDGE IN FACT IS AS STRONG AS ADVERTISED...RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY COME DOWN IN THE MODELS AND WILL GO AHEAD AND INDICATE THIS IN NEW GRID SET. LIKEWISE...MODELS LIKELY TOO COOL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD LEANING TOO HEAVILY ON CLIMO AND WILL GO HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS WITH 595DM RIDGE BUILDING IN. DEESE && .AVIATION... 00Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE. //ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 70 92 71 93 / 10 30 20 20 ATLANTA 71 89 73 91 / 10 30 20 20 BLAIRSVILLE 63 84 65 85 / 20 40 20 30 CARTERSVILLE 68 89 70 91 / 20 30 20 20 COLUMBUS 72 92 73 93 / 10 30 20 30 GAINESVILLE 70 88 72 89 / 10 30 20 20 MACON 71 93 72 94 / 10 30 20 30 ROME 68 90 70 92 / 20 30 20 20 PEACHTREE CITY 69 90 71 92 / 10 30 20 20 VIDALIA 72 92 73 94 / 20 30 30 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$

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