Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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720 FXUS62 KFFC 030843 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 443 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ACTIVE PERIOD DRAWING TO A CLOSE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHIFT EASTWARD. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS PRESENT THIS MORNING ACROSS GEORGIA AS SURFACE FRONT HANGS BACK ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA. MAY HAVE TAPERED OFF POPS TO QUICKLY OVER THE NORTH FOR THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE AS NEEDED FOR DEVELOPING -SHRA OVER AL. AMPLE MOISTURE IS CONFINED SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND WITH SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT TODAY THE BEST MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION WITH IT. SPC DOES HAVE THE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY...LARGELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO JACKSON TO HARTWELL WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK IMPULSE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING/MODELED CAPES 1000-1500 J/KG /. HAVE LIMITED BEST POPS TO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND KEPT THUNDER MENTION LIMITED TO HIGHEST POP AREAS. PRIMARY HAZARDS CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. AS FRONT CONTINUES TO TRANSITION SOUTHWARD...POPS WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SURFACE LOW PERSISTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN FL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS POSITIONS GEORGIA IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S...WITH THE COOLING TREND CONTINUING INTO LATE WEEK. BEGIN TO SEE SOME INFLUENCE OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS CONTINUE IN THE GRIDS. 31 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SWATH OF MOISTURE INCREASE AND SOME LOW CAPE WITH THIS FRONT. COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THIS COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE PERSISTING ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. POPS RETURN LATE MONDAY FOR NORTHWEST GA WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SOME BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR MID WEEK WITH A MODERATING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND. 41 && AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE... LIGHT SHOWERS STILL IMPACTING THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT LARGELY NOT AT TAF SITES. DEGRADING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA...AND HAVE IFR AT ALL SITES BY 09-11Z. SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN QUICKLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z. SHOWERS POSSIBLE 15-18Z AT THE ATL TAF SITES...AND -TSRA POSSIBLE AT CSG AND MCN FOR GENERALLY 16-20Z. SW WINDS WILL BECOME NW AT 8-12KT. VRB GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN/NEAR CONVECTION. //ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS. 31 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 80 54 74 49 / 30 20 20 10 ATLANTA 76 55 71 50 / 30 20 20 20 BLAIRSVILLE 71 48 67 44 / 30 10 40 40 CARTERSVILLE 75 51 71 46 / 30 10 20 40 COLUMBUS 80 58 75 53 / 50 20 5 10 GAINESVILLE 76 53 70 48 / 30 20 20 30 MACON 82 56 77 50 / 60 40 10 10 ROME 75 50 71 47 / 20 10 30 40 PEACHTREE CITY 78 52 72 47 / 40 20 20 20 VIDALIA 84 62 79 54 / 70 60 10 5 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...31 LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...31

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