Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000 FXUS62 KFFC 020553 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 153 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/ .UPDATE... REMAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL GA EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BDL && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 715 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/ .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE COMBINATION OF WEAK RIDGING AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY...DIMINISHING AFTER 10 PM. MLCAPES CONTINUE TO BE DECENT...WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT NECESSARILY ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TUESDAY...AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STORMS TUESDAY WILL LIKELY FIRE ALONG OLD BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO MID WEEK. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE LOW TO MID 90S IN THE AFTERNOON. 31 && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN STATES THRU SATURDAY. EVEN BY THE WEEKEND...NO INDICATION OF STRONG PATTERN SHIFT OR AIRMASS CHANGE IN 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE. MED RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT HEIGHT AND MOISTURE FIELDS WHICH GET ABOUT AS CLOSE AS YOU CAN POSSIBLY GET TO MEDIAN CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST OF SEPTEMBER. WARM DAYS AND NIGHTS WITH APPROX 30PCT COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER COVERAGE BASED ON MODEL MEAN RH FIELDS. NOT SEEING ANY HIGH IMPACT...TROPICAL SYSTEMS OR PATTERN CHANGING FEATURES IN MODEL FORECASTS. 12Z GFS DOES TAKE A TURN FOR A WARMER PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER HIGH BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...BUT THIS SOLUTION NOT CONSISTENT WITH PREV RUNS OR 12Z ECMWF. REFRESHED TEMPS BASED ON 30DAY BIAS CORRECTED GRIDDED BLENDED GUIDANCE AND LATEST HPC GUIDANCE. MOST OTHER FIELDS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ACCURATE DEPICTION OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IN POP AND WX GRIDS. SNELSON PREV LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ISSUED 323 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID- WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON WEDNESDAY...BUT A WEAK BOUNDARY MAY TRY AND SNEAK THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD DIMINISH BY FRIDAY. A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT THE CWFA DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE BOUNDARYS PROGRESSION DOWN. OVERALL...NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. POPS WILL MAINLY REMAIN DIURNAL IN NATURE. COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS. NLISTEMAA && .AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS THIS MORNING NEAR KMCN. CU FIELD NEAR 4-6 KFT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT TO BKN COVERAGE. GREATER TSRA CHANCES IN 19-23Z PERIOD SO HAVE INCLUDED PROB30. WINDS GENERALLY CALM TO LIGHT VRB INITIALLY BECOMING WEST UNDER 7 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. //ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE... MEDIUM ON MORNING VSBYS AND TSRA TIMING. HIGH ALL ELSE. BAKER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 95 70 95 70 / 40 30 40 20 ATLANTA 93 73 90 72 / 40 30 40 20 BLAIRSVILLE 88 66 86 64 / 40 30 40 20 CARTERSVILLE 94 68 91 69 / 40 30 40 20 COLUMBUS 96 74 92 73 / 40 30 40 20 GAINESVILLE 92 71 91 71 / 40 30 40 20 MACON 95 71 94 71 / 40 30 40 20 ROME 94 68 91 68 / 40 30 40 20 PEACHTREE CITY 92 68 91 69 / 40 30 40 20 VIDALIA 95 74 93 73 / 40 30 40 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...31/BDL LONG TERM...NLISTEMAA/SNELSON AVIATION...BAKER

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