Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000 FXUS62 KFFC 230231 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 1031 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .UPDATE...
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CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION...
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/ISSUED 737 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... QUIET AND PLEASANT FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TOMORROW RESULTING IN A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH...THOUGH THERMAL PROFILES STAY DRY ASIDE FROM PERHAPS A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE COOL AGAIN TONIGHT /ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM/ THEN MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE RIDGE AXIS AND ENHANCED MOISTURE STAYS WEST OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR THIS ATYPICALLY NICE LATE MAY PERIOD. BAKER LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER FL SUNDAY AM COMBINED WITH SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE NC COAST WILL KEEP THINGS MOSTLY DRY ON SUNDAY. TEMPS STILL RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO. MEMORIAL DAY THRU TUESDAY. BY EARLY MONDAY...BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFT FURTHER EAST ALLOWING FOR MORE OF A SOUTHERLY FETCH OFF OF THE GULF BY MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD IN TERMS OF POP CHANCES BY MONDAY AS A RESULT. GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS COVERAGE VS THE ECMWF FOR MONDAY EVEN THOUGH THE GENERAL PATTERN IS SIMILAR BUT BOTH REMAIN IN THE HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. DONT BELIEVE IT WILL BE A RAIN OUT BUT FOLKS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE RADAR ON MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MORE OF THE SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH LOOKS TO PERSIST EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WED THRU FRIDAY. FOR NOW...BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF AFTERNOON COVERAGE BUT HEIGHT RISES ENSUE WED THROUGH FRIDAY THUS REDUCING OVERALL COVERAGE BACK TO NEAR CLIMO. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE VERY NEAR CLIMO WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEXT WEEK CREEPING SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. 30 AVIATION... 00Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ONLY SOME AFTERNOON CU FIELD OF FEW 4-5 KFT. WINDS HAVE BEEN PROBLEMATIC WITH NW TO NE FLOW BUT SHOULD SETTLE OUT PREDOMINATELY EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. //ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE... HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS. DEESE
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 53 83 56 83 / 0 0 10 5 ATLANTA 58 81 62 82 / 0 0 10 5 BLAIRSVILLE 50 77 55 77 / 0 0 5 5 CARTERSVILLE 52 83 59 83 / 0 0 10 5 COLUMBUS 57 85 64 86 / 0 0 10 10 GAINESVILLE 55 80 57 80 / 0 0 10 5 MACON 55 85 60 86 / 0 0 5 10 ROME 51 83 57 83 / 0 0 5 5 PEACHTREE CITY 52 82 57 83 / 0 0 10 5 VIDALIA 59 86 63 86 / 0 0 5 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEESE LONG TERM....31 AVIATION...DEESE

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