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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KFFC 190757
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
357 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN KY WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN GA. THIS FEATURE HAS HELPED
DEVELOP AND SUSTAIN CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA
EARLY THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINERS. MPE PLACES AN
AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM SOUTHEAST WALKER COUNTY INTO EASTERN DAWSON
COUNTY. THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY PUSHING OFF TO THE
EAST...BUT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP BACK OFF TO THE WEST. DO
THINK THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS WHERE CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP. FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CWFA...THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE
THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS. THIS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HAVE MODELED POPS AROUND THE HRRR
OUTPUT FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST PERIOD. DO EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORMS TO
KEEP FIRING ACROSS NW GA THIS MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST. THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT A MCS TYPE FEATURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWFA AND PUSHING SE TODAY. THE HRRR ACTUALLY IS
HINTING AT THIS ALSO. NOT VERY CONFIDENT THIS WILL
HAPPEN...ESPECIALLY WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD DEBRIS AROUND. MORE
SCATTERED ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
ZONES...WHERE THEY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE MOST HEATING.

IF AN MCS FEATURE DOES DEVELOP...ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WET MICROBURSTS. FLASH
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD...ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS REPEATEDLY
MOVE.

TOOK BLEND FOR TEMPS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

PREICP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SETS UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HAVE ONLY TWEAKED POPS DURING
THIS PERIOD.

FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...THE 500MB TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS REMAINS
ACROSS THE SE COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP FOCUS SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY. PREVIOUS RUNS PUSHED THE FEATURE OFF THE COAST
ON TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FOR THIS
FEATURE HAS BEEN LOW FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE ECMWF NOW HAS THE
BOUNDARY APPROACHING NORTHERN GA ON FRIDAY...AND MOVING THROUGH THE
CWFA DURING THE DAY. THE GFS HAS CONTINUES TO BRING THE BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD. NEITHER MODEL IS PRODUCING MUCH PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE
FOR NOW...SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE SCT RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

MAIN CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE TO UP POPS SLIGHTLY IN THE EAST
FOR WEDNESDAY. MAINLY PERSISTENCE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
CURRENT PATTERN MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE TIMING OF
CONVECTION. FOLLOWED THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR FAIRLY CLOSELY FOR
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...IT HAS BEEN THE
BEST MODEL. CIGS AND WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CHALLENGE. MODELS DO
HAVE CIG VALUES DIPPING TO IFR AND OBS REFLECT THIS...ALSO AREAS
OF FOG WILL BE PRESENT BUT ONLY HAVE 5-6SM PREV. MORNING
CONVECTION MAY LIMIT AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
REMAINDER OF ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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ATHENS          79  64  85  66 /  60  50  30  20
ATLANTA         80  66  86  66 /  60  30  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     73  59  83  60 /  70  50  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    80  65  88  65 /  60  30  20  20
COLUMBUS        86  67  90  67 /  40  30  20  10
GAINESVILLE     77  63  85  65 /  70  50  30  20
MACON           85  66  88  66 /  50  30  30  10
ROME            81  65  89  65 /  60  30  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  81  64  87  64 /  50  30  20  10
VIDALIA         84  67  83  66 /  50  50  40  20
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA