Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000 FXUS62 KFFC 291743 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 143 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/ UPDATE... A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WELL AS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN ALABAMA. FORECAST GRIDS ALREADY REFLECT THIS ACTIVITY WELL...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. COVERAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...HEAT ADVISORY STILL WILL BE IN EFFECT STARTING AT 1300 EDT GENERALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING AN INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO ALL SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO ALABAMA. NOT SURE HOW STRONG OR EFFECTIVE THIS FEATURE WILL BE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...SO ALTHOUGH NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THURSDAY AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105 ACROSS SOME OF OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY AND A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO LINE. 20 LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE IT STALLS ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THAT HELPS PUSH THE FRONT INTO SOUTH GA OR NORTH FL BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS SUGGEST DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY... THEN MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHERE THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS DURING DAYTIME HEATING. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT... SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND... WHILE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA... AT LEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK. 39 && .AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PREDOMINATELY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE AIRFIELD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND FAVOR A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT EXCEPT NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY TURN NORTHEAST BY TOMORROW MORNING BUT LOOK TO RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED THURS AFTERNOON. //ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON WINDS AND HIGH ON OTHER ELEMENTS. RW && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 92 73 93 74 / 40 30 40 30 ATLANTA 92 75 92 75 / 40 30 50 30 BLAIRSVILLE 87 69 89 66 / 40 30 40 20 CARTERSVILLE 93 71 93 71 / 40 30 40 20 COLUMBUS 96 76 95 76 / 40 30 50 30 GAINESVILLE 91 74 92 73 / 40 30 40 30 MACON 95 74 94 76 / 40 30 50 30 ROME 92 71 93 71 / 40 30 40 20 PEACHTREE CITY 93 72 92 74 / 40 30 50 30 VIDALIA 95 75 96 76 / 40 30 40 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP... DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...LAURENS...MACON... MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY... STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN... TWIGGS...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...RW

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