Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000 FXUS62 KFFC 100215 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 915 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .UPDATE... RADAR COVERAGE PATTERN HAS ALMOST RESEMBLED MORE OF A SUMMER OR EVEN TROPICAL REGIME THAN THAT OF A WINTER ONE THIS EVENING. IN THIS PSEUDO CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT...AS THE THE SUN HAS SET...COVERAGE OF -SNSH HAS DISSIPATED CONSIDERABLY WITH ONLY ISOLATED REPORTS ACROSS THE ATLANTA METRO. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL BE THE SLICK ROADS DUE TO SNOW COVER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND MOUNTAINS AND BLACK ICE FOR AREAS OF THE NORTH ATLANTA METRO. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND BELOW FREEZING ALONG AND NORTH OF I20 WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THEIR FREEFALL TONIGHT. WINDS WILL HELP TO DRY OUT ROADS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BUT WIND SHELTERED AREAS MAY STILL SEE SLICK SPOTS WELL INTO WED MORNING. OVERALL...NO CHANGES TO THE PRODUCTS BASED ON IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AND WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT GOING. DEESE && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED / PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED / SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY FOR SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE AWAY. AS THE TEMPERATURES GET COLDER TONIGHT .ROADS WILL BECOME A PROBLEM AT LEAST FOR SOME AREAS OVER N GA. A DECENT WEATHER DAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY EXCEPT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AND WINDS WILL KICK UP AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATING A SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE NW FLOW FOR N GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT COULD SPIT FLURRIES OR MAYBE EVEN SNOW SHWRS WHEN IT PASSES. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THINGS DRY BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR SNOW POTENTIAL WITH THE NEXT MODEL RUN. A RATHER WINDY PERIOD LOOKS TO CONTINUE...AT LEAST ENOUGH FOR THE COLD LOCATIONS OF THE NE MOUNTAINS AND THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE CONTINUED. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING 12-14 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH. BDL LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... DEEP LONG WAVE TROF WILL DOMINATE THE DISCUSSION THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH WILL INCLUDE TWO ARCTIC SURFACE RIDGE INVASIONS. THE FIRST AND WEAKER OF THE TWO WILL COME IN ON THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE QUICKLY SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY. OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD TROF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE GFS HAS TRENDED DRIER. OVERALL...AM KEEPING LOW END POPS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT WINTRY MIX IN THE NE MOUNTAINS IF IT OCCURS...ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TRENDING DOWN IN THAT TIME PERIOD. BY LATE SATURDAY...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MUCH STRONGER AND DEEPER ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE REGION..WHICH LOOKS TO BRING SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A WINTRY EVENT WILL UNFOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE BASIS IS THE STRONG ARCTIC SURFACE RIDGE WHICH SLIDES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH ALL OF THE EXTENDED MODELS AND EVEN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE PROGGING. BOTH THE GFS...ECMWF AND THEIR MEMBERS ARE PROGGING A STRONG CAD EVENT SETTING UP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF AND TAPPING A BIT OF GULF MOISTURE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION AND LOWEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN DETERMINING ANY PRECIPITATION TYPE AT THIS POINT WHICH COULD RANGE EVERYTHING FROM AN ALL VERY COLD RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN TO SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH ALL DEPENDS ON THE TIMING...DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR...AND THE WARM NOSE. NONETHELESS. FOR NOW...LEFT EVERYTHING IN THE FORECAST AS A RAIN OR SNOW. KEEP IN MIND THAT IT LIKELY WILL CHANGE AND IS SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER. 30 AVIATION... 00Z UPDATE... VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTERMITTENLY AT MOST AREA TAF SITES AT THIS HOUR BUT ANY REDUCTIONS TO VSBY OR CIGS HAVE BEEN LIMITED. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR THIS EVENING GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL MVFR OVERNIGHT. THESE CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON WED AND THEN DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE. //ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE... HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS. DEESE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 23 39 24 49 / 60 40 0 5 ATLANTA 23 37 27 50 / 60 5 0 5 BLAIRSVILLE 17 29 18 42 / 80 40 0 5 CARTERSVILLE 22 35 24 48 / 60 10 0 5 COLUMBUS 25 44 28 59 / 40 5 0 5 GAINESVILLE 22 34 24 45 / 60 30 0 5 MACON 25 44 26 56 / 60 5 0 5 ROME 22 35 23 47 / 70 5 0 5 PEACHTREE CITY 23 38 25 52 / 60 0 0 5 VIDALIA 29 45 29 57 / 20 10 0 5 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE... DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...LUMPKIN... MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS... TOWNS...UNION...WHITE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEESE LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...DEESE

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