Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000 FXUS62 KFFC 231939 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 339 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017 ...Tornado Watch continues for portions of east central Georgia until 6 PM and Flash Flood Watch for majority of area except far north Georgia through Wednesday afternoon... .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...
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Latest wave of showers/tstorms slowly exiting the CWA and by this evening this area of showers/tstorms will have pushed east out of the region. With instability remaining over the CWA tonight will need to keep low end chance pops for showers/tstorms all areas. The next wave of precip will be along and ahead of the cold front late tonight and Wednesday. Models have waffled a bit on timing of this front and precip but general consensus is that a line of showers/tstorms will develop along and head of the front, moving into northwest by between 10 and 12z, moving rapidly across the CWA and by mid afternoon Wednesday this round of showers/tstorms will be east of the region. CAPES will be 1000+ at 12Z ahead of the cold front along with 60kts bulk shear. With the forced lifting of the front, this should be enough for a few storms to become severe with gusty winds and possibly a QLCS tornado as the line moves across the CWA. The H5 low will be dropping into the Tennessee Valley Thursday evening with very cold air aloft (-20 to -22C at H5 which is quite cold for this time of year). This will continue to keep the atmosphere destabilized as evident by the +100 CAPES on all models Wednesday night. Will need to increase pops across north GA Wednesday night and with the very cold temps aloft, there is the risk of small hail with any thunderstorm. 17
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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Forecast QPF through 00Z Thursday should remain less than an inch, however can`t rule out an isolated 1 to 2 inch amount in some of the heavier thunderstorms. With the previous 2 days of rainfall, flash flooding remains a possibility with the next wave of precipitation late tonight and Wednesday. Will therefore continue the Flash Flood Watch through 18Z Wednesday. 17
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&& .LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
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Made minor cosmetic changes to fcst mainly to limit some precip chances in the north for a quicker departure of the upper low/moisture by Thursday evening. Also expanded Saturday slight chance pops for north GA given the zonal flow/disturbance influence. Otherwise rest looks on track with neighboring offices and previous discussion follows... Baker PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017/ LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/... Much of the area will be on the backside of deep moisture plume and associated cold front by Wednesday night with anomalously cold upper level low approaching from the northwest. Breezy and much cooler conditions will prevail into Thursday with clouds and scattered showers across north Georgia. Lapse rates appear steep enough to support a few embedded thunderstorms, again mainly north of I-20. Small hail will be possible with any storms. By late Thursday into Thursday night, drier air will work across the area and any showers/storms will diminish. Temperatures will gradually moderate closer to normal Friday into the weekend as an upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico builds slowly north. Battle between the GOM ridge and a strong upper trough digging across the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest occurs over the weekend creating an increasingly zonal flow across the area, especially north GA. Moisture will begin to increase as this occurs with chances for rain picking up late Saturday into Sunday. Medium range models appear to deepen longwave trough across the eastern CONUS thus resulting in an extended period of rain setting up once again - Sunday into Monday - across the Southeast region. However, this is 5 to 6 days out and things will likely change. DJN.83
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&& .AVIATION... 18Z Update... Current wave of showers/tsra moving across central/east GA will end from the west this afternoon with scattered showers remaining through the rest of this afternoon and evening elsewhere. A squall line is expected to develop along a cold front and move into western GA late tonight/early Wednesday and spread across the forecast area through the morning hours, exiting to the east by 18Z Wed. Mostly VFR with scattered MVFR/IFR cigs will hold through this evening with widespread IFR/MVFR cigs by 06z Wed. Cigs will remain IFR/MVFR through 18Z Wed. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... High on winds. Low to medium on remaining elements. 17 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Athens 63 75 57 73 / 30 80 40 20 Atlanta 65 73 56 71 / 50 90 30 20 Blairsville 60 69 52 66 / 50 90 60 40 Cartersville 64 74 55 72 / 60 90 50 30 Columbus 66 77 57 76 / 60 90 20 5 Gainesville 63 73 56 69 / 40 90 50 20 Macon 67 77 57 76 / 30 80 20 10 Rome 63 72 54 72 / 70 80 60 30 Peachtree City 65 75 56 72 / 50 90 20 10 Vidalia 69 79 61 77 / 70 80 30 10
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&& .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for the following zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bibb...Bleckley...Butts... Carroll...Chattahoochee...Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb... Coweta...Crawford...Crisp...DeKalb...Dodge...Dooly...Douglas... Emanuel...Fayette...Forsyth...Glascock...Greene...Gwinnett... Hall...Hancock...Haralson...Harris...Heard...Henry...Houston... Jackson...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar... Laurens...Macon...Madison...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe... Montgomery...Morgan...Muscogee...Newton...North Fulton... Oconee...Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...Pike...Polk...Pulaski... Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...South Fulton...Spalding...Stewart... Sumter...Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs... Treutlen...Troup...Twiggs...Upson...Walton...Warren... Washington...Webster...Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson. Tornado Watch until 6 PM EDT this evening for the following zones: Emanuel...Jefferson...Johnson...Laurens...Montgomery... Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Washington...Wheeler...Wilkinson.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....DJN.83/Baker AVIATION...17

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