Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000 FXUS62 KFFC 261814 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 214 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 .PREV DISCUSSION...
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/Issued 725 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016/ SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/... Medium range models remain in good agreement through the short term forecast period. Strong upper ridge centered over the southern Appalachians lifts slowly northeast toward the Mid- Atlantic coastal region through Saturday. Just enough moisture in place across the northern half of the area to keep isolated to scattered...mainly diurnal...convection in the forecast each day. Central Georgia should see little to no convection as moisture remains too limited there. Instability is moderate at best across the north so although a few strong storms remain possible with strong daytime heating... severe potential is low. High temperatures will remain noticeably above seasonal normals through the period. 20 LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/... Main concern in the Long Term continues to be the potential impact from a tropical low that computer models push into the Straights of FL on Sunday and into the far southeast Gulf Sunday night-early Monday. GFS and ECMWF start out in fairly good agreement... showing an upper ridge anchored along the mid Atlantic Coast by Sunday... weakening its grip as this low pressure system pushes into the southeast Gulf early on Monday. Then the long range models begin to differ considerably... with the ECMWF now showing a much weaker system similar to the GFS... tracking the low northward over the far eastern Gulf and then inland across central FL on Tuesday. Then the ECMWF exits the low off the northeast FL coast and along the GA coast Tuesday night and tracks the low northeastward along the SC and NC coasts on Wednesday... then further out to sea on Thursday. The GFS solution keeps the tropical low very weak... and now tracks the low from the southeast Gulf early on Monday... northwestward across the east central Gulf on Tuesday and meanders the low along the LA and MS coasts Wednesday and Thursday. Either way... confidence is increasing that a tropical low will push into the southeast Gulf sometime early next week and could potentially impact areas along the gulf coast by early to mid next week. With so much uncertainty on where it tracks and potential strengthening... all interest across the deep south should continue to closely monitoring the tropics over the weekend and beyond. Otherwise... will continue to show isolated to low scattered coverage of mainly diurnally driven convection each day... with a slight increase in rain chances warranted going into the middle of next week. Temperatures will remain mostly in the 90s for highs and 70s for lows through the extended. 39
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&& .AVIATION...
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18Z Update... No major aviation concerns this TAF period. VFR ceilings with no restrictions to VSBYs expected to continue. Winds are out of the NE to E and expected to stay there. Wind speeds expected to stay 10kt or less. Seeing some isolated showers over N GA again this afternoon and the ATL area airports may be affected through 00z. Put in a TEMPO group between 20z-23z this afternoon. Expecting another round of afternoon convection Sat but should see less in the way of coverage. decided to leave any mention of precip out of the TAF Sat afternoon. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... High confidence on all elements. 01
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 92 72 93 72 / 20 10 10 10 Atlanta 91 74 92 73 / 20 20 10 10 Blairsville 89 68 88 67 / 40 20 30 20 Cartersville 93 71 93 71 / 30 20 20 10 Columbus 94 74 95 72 / 5 5 10 10 Gainesville 90 72 91 72 / 30 20 20 10 Macon 94 70 95 71 / 5 5 5 10 Rome 93 71 93 71 / 30 20 20 10 Peachtree City 92 70 92 69 / 20 10 10 10 Vidalia 93 71 94 73 / 5 5 10 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....Kovacik AVIATION...01

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