Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000 FXUS62 KFFC 161145 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 645 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 341 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017/ SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/... Overnight water vapor imagery reveals a strong negatively tilted shortwave trough over the TX panhandle/W OK with weak short wave ridging downstream of this feature across the SE. Latest sfc analysis shows stubborn stationary boundary flirting with the north Ga border and a weak wedge taking shape down the spine of the Appalachians as a 1030mb high centers across Mid Atlantic coast. Today...Axis of H5 shortwave ridge will move east allowing deeper SW flow to influence the area while the weak wedge builds into the NE portion of the CWA at the sfc. This will translate to an increase in cloud cover today with a few isolated showers possible just about anywhere...but opted to focus slight chance PoPs more along the wedge front. Despite more cloud cover...temps are expected to top off much above normal again with highs in the 70s most locations. Only high temp record in jeopardy will be ATL. Areas of fog are still possible through about mid morning today...but dense cirrus shield is helping to keep widespread conditions at bay. Tonight...Potent shortwave will push into the G Lakes...with SW flow still in pace across the SE and a ridge building into the Gulf and FL. Mild lows expected again with abundant cloud cover in place and a continued modified airmass. Our next frontal system will finally be approaching the area from the west..but Mid-Atlantic sfc high responsible for Monday wedge will push offshore but will maintain enough ridging influence to keep shower activity generally at bay- minus an isolated shower or two. Tuesday...Frontal boundary will continue to creep east before eventually setting up shop near our NW border. Rain and thunder chances increase just ahead and very near this boundary...mainly across far NW Ga. Lack of appreciable MUCAPE and fairly weak shear will lead to general thunder concerns below severe limits. High temps continue well above normal with highs upper 60s north to upper 70s central. A more focused potential for rainfall falls into the extended period. Kovacik LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/... Models are coming into a little better agreement for the long term portion of the forecast. Frontal boundary will begin to impact northern portions of the CWFA Tuesday night and early Wednesday. The main forcing with this system goes well to the north, but there should be some small chances of thunder right along the boundary early mainly Tuesday night. This front will stall across portions of central GA Wednesday into late Thursday. Not much forcing aloft to interact with this boundary, so pops will remain on the low side. However, if any perturbations in the zonal flow come across - pops could be locally higher near the boundary. The old front should begin to push northward as a warm front early Friday as the next system move out of the Lower Mississippi River Valley. The surface low pressure system will move well to the north, with a trailing front Thursday night into Friday. In the mid levels, the main forcing also shunts a bit to the north, but still some decent energy this far south. The longwave through actually comes through negatively tilted. there should be enough instability around for thunder...and a few of the storms could become strong. Will have to watch for the potential for severe. This front looks to make it to near the Florida panhandle by early Saturday. The next low pressure system/front looks to impact the area late Sunday into Monday. NListemaa CLIMATE... Records for 01-16 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 76 1952 30 1994 56 1974 9 1927 1928 1972 1952 1912 KATL 73 1882 28 1972 64 1882 5 1972 1912 1893 KCSG 79 1950 35 1972 64 1947 14 1972 1912 KMCN 81 1952 35 1994 64 2013 12 1927 1950 && .AVIATION... 12Z Update... Minor reductions in vsbys from fog this morning...mainly at FTY/PDK/AHN. This will continue through mid morning before dissipating. Mid level cloud deck has overspread the area and this should persist through the evening. Some scattered low end VFR clouds are possible...but do not expect any major impacts. Winds will remain on the east side through the entire period with speeds generally between 5-8kts. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Medium on all elements. Kovacik && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 67 50 71 56 / 20 10 20 30 Atlanta 70 55 71 58 / 10 10 20 30 Blairsville 64 51 63 52 / 20 20 50 60 Cartersville 70 54 70 56 / 10 10 30 60 Columbus 74 54 75 58 / 10 10 10 20 Gainesville 65 54 69 57 / 20 10 20 50 Macon 74 52 74 57 / 10 10 10 20 Rome 71 54 70 55 / 10 10 50 60 Peachtree City 71 49 71 56 / 10 10 20 30 Vidalia 75 54 76 58 / 20 10 10 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kovacik LONG TERM....NListemaa AVIATION...Kovacik

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