Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000 FXUS62 KFFC 270712 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 312 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY THROUGH TOMORROW...IT IS STILL THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH ONE SMALL EXCEPTION. A FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND THE TAIL END OF THIS IS FORECAST TO DIP DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS TOMORROW. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AND IT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CWA TO GENERATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GA MOUNTAINS. HAVE INCLUDED ABOUT 20 PERCENT POPS WITH THIS... FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WITH THICKNESSES CONTINUING TO INCREASE...HIGH TEMPS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE FOR THURSDAY THEY WILL BE A FEW MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE TONIGHT. 11 .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS COAST AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM IN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WITH EACH RUN WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AT THIS POINT. STILL EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES LATE IN THE DAY. WILL THEREFORE CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ALSO FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOPE INDUCED LIFT AND SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LIKEWISE...FOR THE WEEKEND...MODELS HAVE SLOWED PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND ALSO HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH ITSELF. ECMWF IS DECIDEDLY SLOWER WITH MOISTURE RETURN AND FURTHER NORTH WITH MAIN ENERGY IMPULSE RESULTING IN HIGHEST POPS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. GFS ON THE OTHER HAND PUMPS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2.25 INCHES AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. FOR NOW IN THE GRIDS...HAVE PLAYED IT AS A SLOW START TO THE PRECIP ON SATURDAY WITH A SHARP GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR SUNDAY HOWEVER...FEEL EVEN WITH A GLANCING BLOW OF UPPER SUPPORT AS ECMWF SUGGESTS...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO WARRANT HIGH POPS. DEESE && .AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE... A FEW AREAS OF LOWER MID CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING BUT DO NOT EXPECT THESE TO LAST LONG AT SITES. MAIN CHALLENGE IN THIS FORECAST IS THE WIND DIRECTION FOR TOMORROW. EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TOMORROW LATE MORNING AT GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT WINDS BECOMING JUST NW OF N AT ATL FOR THE AFTERNOON. //ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION UNTIL 16Z AND THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. 11 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 90 64 95 67 / 0 5 5 5 ATLANTA 88 68 92 70 / 0 5 5 5 BLAIRSVILLE 85 60 87 64 / 0 5 20 10 CARTERSVILLE 89 61 93 65 / 0 5 5 10 COLUMBUS 92 67 94 69 / 5 5 5 5 GAINESVILLE 87 67 92 69 / 0 5 5 10 MACON 92 62 95 64 / 5 5 5 5 ROME 90 62 92 64 / 0 5 5 10 PEACHTREE CITY 89 60 92 64 / 0 5 5 5 VIDALIA 91 65 94 68 / 5 5 5 5 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....DEESE AVIATION...11

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