Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000 FXUS62 KFFC 281146 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 646 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 .PREV DISCUSSION...
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/ISSUED 338 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015/ ..FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR SMALL PORTION OF NE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT... SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WHAT WOULD A MID SHIFT BE WITHOUT MORE WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS? WILL GET TO THAT IN A MOMENT BUT FIRST...STARTING OFF THE NIGHT WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AT THIS TIME WITH RIDGING ALL THE WAY DOWN TOWARD THE GULF COAST SO THIS HIGH HAS A WIDE INFLUENCE. TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ARE BUT TEMPERATURE FALL HAS BEEN CURBED SLIGHTLY FOR THE NW SECTIONS BY INFILTRATING CLOUD DECK. THIS MID DECK IS PART OF A LARGE PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING BUT EFFECTS SHOULD BE LIMITED LOCAL TO AFOREMENTIONED NW ZONES. FOR TODAY...HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND BEGIN TO SEE WEDGE SETUP OVER EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE LEE SIDE OF THE CAROLINAS AND EVENTUALLY INTO GEORGIA BY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM 3K THROUGH ABOUT 10K WILL ENHANCE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINNING IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT PRESENT ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM HIRES MODELS LIKE THE LOCAL WRF AND 4KM NAM TO WARRANT INCREASED POPS WITH 40 PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES. IF SOME OF THE HIRES RUNS ARE CORRECT...EVEN THIS MAY BE TOO LOW AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE EMERGES TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND EXPANDS NORTHWARD AIDED BY DEVELOPING 35 KT JET THAT SHOULD MAXIMIZE ISENTROPIC ASCENT BY 06Z TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...OUR FRIEND...MR 1045MB HIGH...HAS TAKEN POSITIONED ITSELF ALONG THE NE COAST WITH 1040 MB AS FAR SOUTH AS VIRGINIA. THINKING COMBINATION OF WEDGE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH ALONG WITH RESIDUAL SNOW COVER OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS MAY ALLOW TEMPS TONIGHT TO BE BELOW GUIDANCE DESPITE AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURE CURVE WILL BE DECIDEDLY NON DIURNAL WITH MIN TEMPS LIKELY REACHED BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z BEFORE RISING THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC INDUCED LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB FREEZING TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS OF THE NE MOUNTAINS PROVIDES ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR WINTER WX. CARRYING LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN THE CURRENT GRID SET BUT ONLY INDICATING A LIGHT GLAZE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. STILL...THIS IS ENOUGH FOR A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AND WILL ISSUE WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE. MAY SEE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING WELL PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FOR THESE AREAS AND NO ISSUES ANTICIPATED AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH QPF WILL BE LIGHT....LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET FOR MOST AREAS THE BALANCE OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH EASTERN SECTIONS FAVORED. HAVE SMALL AREAS OF LIKELY POPS ADVERTISED BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAMPED UP SHOULD MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE WITH INCREASED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE AREA. DEESE LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... WARMER PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THIS PATTERN ALSO LEANS WETTER. MINOR FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE STATE AND WASHES OUT. LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY SO I AM INCLINED TO REMOVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER WE CURRENTLY HAVE FOR THE DAYTIME PERIOD MONDAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A MUCH STRONGER FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE STATE AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE. INSTABILITY IS NOTICEABLY BETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET PROGGED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. COOLER WEATHER FILLS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT FLATTENING UPPER PATTERN SHUNTS THE BEST COLD AIR EAST WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. 20 .AVIATION... 12Z UPDATE... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID CLOUDS HAVING NOW INFILTRATED MOST OF THE STATE. LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE ANTICIPATED TO FORM ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS AND MOVE INTO AHN ARE JUST SIMPLY NOT THERE AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THEIR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH DAYBREAK. HAVE DONE LIKEWISE IN THE LATEST TAF SETS WITH JUST SCT ADVERTISED FOR THE LOWER CLOUD DECKS. BY TONIGHT HOWEVER...MORE CERTAINTY IN A PROLONGED LOW CLOUD EVENT WITH MVFR AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR AND LIFR INTO SUNDAY AS WELL WITH -RA AND DZ DEVELOPING. //ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... MEDIUM ON CIG THIS MORNING. HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS. DEESE
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 50 35 47 42 / 10 60 60 50 ATLANTA 49 37 51 43 / 5 50 50 50 BLAIRSVILLE 44 31 49 40 / 5 60 60 60 CARTERSVILLE 47 36 50 43 / 5 40 50 60 COLUMBUS 54 41 56 48 / 20 40 30 40 GAINESVILLE 45 33 47 41 / 5 60 60 50 MACON 51 39 51 45 / 30 50 40 40 ROME 49 35 50 43 / 5 30 40 60 PEACHTREE CITY 52 38 52 44 / 10 40 40 50 VIDALIA 48 38 53 49 / 40 50 40 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: FANNIN...LUMPKIN...TOWNS... UNION...WHITE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEESE LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...DEESE

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