Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000 FXUS62 KFFC 281928 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 228 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM STILL DOMINATED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES EAST AND CONTINUES TO DAMP. GULF MOISTURE STILL BEING PUMPED INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW VALUES...12Z KFFC SOUNDING WAS 1.6 INCHES WHICH IS ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND NOT FAR FROM THE RECORD VALUES. SECOND WAVE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD PUSH INTO NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DAMP AND PUSH EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST. ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH MOST OF THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE FRONT WILL ELONGATE AND STALL ALLOWING SOME LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK EDGE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA. STILL PRETTY MUCH ZERO MUCAPE TO DEAL WITH AND WHILE WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER HERE AND THERE ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAVIER RAIN...NOT ENOUGH OF A CONCERN TO ADD THUNDER AT THIS TIME. FORECAST QPF THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IS PRETTY SMALL...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN HALF AN INCH ADDITIONAL RAIN EXPECTED. THIS IS DESPITE THE HIGH PW VALUES AND VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES. MIGHT BE HARD-PRESSED TO GET ANY FLOODING AS THIS SYSTEM WRAPS UP BUT WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE-AVERAGE ESPECIALLY FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FOR HIGHS IN SOUTHERN ZONES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WENT WITH A GENERAL BLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE WILL START NOTICING THE EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT MORE DRASTICALLY IN THE EXTENDED. TDP .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEXT SYSTEM FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS SHAPING UP TO BE AN INTERESTING ONE FROM THE OUTSET. WE HAD BEEN ADVERTISING TEMPS RIGHT AROUND FREEZING FOR SOME OF THE VALLEYS AS THE PRECIP MOVES IN AND NOW THE NEW GUIDANCE COMES IN EVEN LOWER WITH SOME TEMPS AROUND FREEZING EVEN ALONG OUR WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES. TAKING A LOOK AT THE MODEL COBB OUTPUT HOWEVER FOR BRASSTOWN BALD...IT IS EVIDENT THAT THE LOW TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 03Z...JUST AHEAD OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THE MID 30S BY 12Z. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME COLD AIR LOCKED INTO THE VALLEYS SO WOULD LIKE MID SHIFT TO GET A LOOK AT ANOTHER RUN BEFORE PULLING FROZEN PRECIP ON THIS CYCLE. SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY AS CAPE BUILDS TO A HIGH OF AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST SHEAR REMAINING TO THE NORTH. DO HAVE 30 TO 35 KTS AT 850MB ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THERE IS ACTUALLY AN EARLIER LOWER JET AROUND 925MB THAT PUSHES A 40 KT MAX ACROSS THE ATLANTA METRO SO WILL CONTINUE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WORDING IN THE HWO. TIMING ISSUES REMAIN WITH THE 12Z GFS MAINTAINING A SLOWER SOLUTION IN CLEARING THINGS OUT. HAVE YET TO SEE THE ECMWF FOR THE 12Z RUN BUT WILL LIKELY JUST KEEP THE LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THERE AS A HEDGE FOR THE EXTENDED UNTIL MORE AGREEMENT IS REACHED. BASED ON THE LAST WEEK...AM LEANING TOWARD A LESS PROGRESSIVE FRONT AND A WETTER PATTERN TO CONTINUE. DEESE && .AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... WIDESPREAD IFR AT TAF TIME WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MCN. SEE LITTLE IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAY SEE BRIEF LIFTING WITH ONSET OF SECOND ROUND OF -RA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT BUT OVERALL IFR EXPECTED EVERYWHERE...AND CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CIGS. MAY SEE SOME IMPROVING TO MVFR TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AT ATL. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBY AS WELL...AND CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF FG. SW WINDS TO START THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NW TOWARD THE END... GENERALLY UNDER 5KT. //ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... HIGH ON WINDS. MEDIUM-HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS. TDP && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 51 59 45 58 / 90 60 20 10 ATLANTA 51 60 46 57 / 100 40 10 5 BLAIRSVILLE 46 56 42 49 / 100 50 30 20 CARTERSVILLE 46 56 42 51 / 100 40 10 5 COLUMBUS 55 63 48 62 / 80 60 20 5 GAINESVILLE 49 57 45 54 / 100 40 20 10 MACON 56 64 47 63 / 80 80 30 5 ROME 46 55 41 51 / 100 30 10 5 PEACHTREE CITY 51 61 43 59 / 90 40 10 5 VIDALIA 60 67 53 64 / 40 70 60 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA... CHEROKEE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...DE KALB... DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON... GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...LUMPKIN... MERIWETHER...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING... PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING... TOWNS...TROUP...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD. && $$ SHORT TERM...TDP LONG TERM....DEESE AVIATION...TDP

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