Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS62 KFFC 250537
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
135 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016
No major changes needed to the ongoing forecast. Regional radar
shows any tsra/shra activity that was approaching nw GA from AL
has weakened. The hi-res models don`t have a really good handle on
the activity across central TN, so am opting to keep the isolated
pops in for most areas through the overnight hours. Tweaked the
hourly temp/dew grids.
-- Changed Discussion --/Issued 234 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016/
SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...
Models in pretty good agreement through the short term. Very dry air
aloft has suppress convection today but still wouldnt be surprised
if there is an isolated tsra along any left over outflow boundaries
from this mornings convection across extreme north GA. MCS moving
into western TN has a trajectory toward the CWA however all models
dissipate it before getting here. Having said that will maintain
slight chance pops through the night over north and east GA. As the
main surface trough moves out of the Tennessee Valley and into
central GA Saturday...a back door front will move into northeast GA
late Saturday afternoon and across much of north GA Saturday night.
This will increase instability ahead of the front bringing a higher
chance of convection Saturday afternoon and into Saturday night.
Temperatures Saturday will rise into the upper 90s across parts of
central Georgia. Heat index values will approach 105 degrees
Saturday afternoon. However the biggest problem with max temps
Saturday is the amount of clouds expected. If more convection
develops than anticipated this will yield lower max temps. So will
hold off on issuing a Heat Advisory at this time.
LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
Weak to moderate upper- level ridging remains in place over the
region to start the extended forecast period. Ridge does not
appear to be strong enough to suppress all convection...especially
considering the proximity of surface boundaries and strong surface
heating. Pattern shifts to northwest upper flow early in the new
work week with continued scattered convection. Convection should
also continue to show a decidedly diurnal bias...however passing
short waves and surface boundaries will keep convective chances
from drying up completely overnight through the period.
High temperatures remain above seasonal normals into early next
week...but should moderate somewhat as the upper ridge retreats west
and is replaced with northwesterly upper flow.
VFR ceilings and visibility through the period. Hi-res models are
developing convection during peak heating this afternoon...but
for now, will keep any prob30s to the south of KATL. Low end gusts
around 15kt possible tomorrow also.
//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High confidence all elements.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 75 98 72 90 / 30 30 30 30
Atlanta 76 96 75 89 / 20 30 30 30
Blairsville 69 90 68 88 / 20 30 20 30
Cartersville 74 96 73 90 / 20 30 30 30
Columbus 75 97 76 94 / 20 20 30 40
Gainesville 75 95 73 88 / 20 30 30 30
Macon 75 99 75 94 / 20 30 30 30
Rome 73 97 71 90 / 20 30 30 30
Peachtree City 74 97 73 90 / 20 30 30 30
Vidalia 76 97 76 93 / 20 30 40 30