Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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120 FXUS62 KFFC 170056 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA Issued by National Weather Service Morristown TN 756 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 .UPDATE... It will be a quiet night with surface high pressure slowly shifting east across the region. This will allow for light winds and cool overnight temperatures with lows falling into the 30s. A band of high clouds will move in this evening...slowly lowering through the night. The chance of rains showers will increase across the area during the day Sunday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued Issued by National Weather Service Morristown TN/ PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 233 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017/ SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/... Closed low within southern stream flow is in the process of lifting into the TX Big Bend area as the "kicker" shortwave digs south from SoCal into Baja. As a result of this...a downstream shortwave ridge has built across the Gulf States/Southeast where mid level heights have risen. In the lower levels high pressure is centered essentially right over Georgia. High clouds will continue to stream in from the west atop the mid level ridge through the afternoon and overnight hours. Dry conditions are expected through this time period with highs in the 50s this afternoon and lows dropping into the 30s most locations. By 12z Saturday the closed low will dampen into an open trough and move into the Midwest while the sfc high pushes offshore the Atlantic Coast. This will push a surge of deeper moisture towards the area from the west and northwest. Current guidance suggests that rain chances will increase across the far north of the state by mid morning and move SE through the day before stalling in the evening. Instability will remain to the south and west so have omitted thunder. WAA will allow temps to rise into the 60s across central Georgia...whereas clouds and earlier arrival of rain will make temps struggle into the 50s across thr far north. Kovacik LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/... Unsettled weather is expected for much of the long term portion of the forecast. For much of the long term forecast period, the flow aloft will remain zonal. This will allow for two things. The first is that several fast moving shortwaves will move east in the flow. Each wave should increase the potential for measurable rainfall. Most of the waves will be weak and hard to time, but the models are consistent with progging a stronger open wave to move through during the middle part of the week. Due to the difficulty in timing the weaker systems, have opted not to make any changes to the pops. With the flow remaining nearly zonal, the coldest air should remain well to the north of the CWFA during much of the extended portion of the forecast. With the warmer temps and wetter forecast, no frozen precip is anticipated at this time. NListemaa AVIATION... 00Z Update... It should be a quiet night with surface high pressure slowly shifting east across the region. As a result...winds will be light and high clouds will continue to move in...gradually lowering through the night. Rain chances will then begin to increase from northwest to southeast during the day Sunday. With a dry air mass in may take time to saturate the atmosphere. Scattered light rain should begin to develop over Eastern GA by 17Z and spread across the TAF sites throughout the afternoon. Accompanying the showers...will see the cloud deck lower with the potential over local MVFR conditions. Winds should shift to the southeast and remain less than 10 KTs. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Medium on cloud height trends. High on all other forecast elements. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 33 59 47 62 / 0 60 60 60 Atlanta 38 57 49 62 / 0 60 60 60 Blairsville 29 52 37 60 / 0 60 50 40 Cartersville 31 53 46 60 / 0 70 50 50 Columbus 39 64 57 68 / 0 50 70 70 Gainesville 34 55 44 61 / 0 60 60 50 Macon 34 64 54 66 / 0 50 60 70 Rome 30 50 44 60 / 0 70 50 40 Peachtree City 31 60 50 63 / 0 60 60 70 Vidalia 37 67 56 70 / 0 30 50 50 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...mjb AVIATION...mjb is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.