Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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212 FXUS62 KFFC 021145 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 745 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES IMPACT THE STATE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE THAT SWEEPS THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY. HI-RES MODELS HAVE DONE A FAIRLY GOOD JOB WITH INDICATING LULL IN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...AND CONSENSUS IS FOR A LATER START IN ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT BEING SAID...THESE MODELS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR HAVING DIFFICULTIES RESOLVING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. FOR NOW...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH INFLUENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING. AT THIS TIME MODELS SUGGEST BEST MUCAPE TO BE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...WITH VALUES ABOVE 1500 J/KG IN NE GEORGIA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS LARGELY NORTH GEORGIA WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE...WITH BEST CHANCES MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SPC DOES HAVE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...POPS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THEN RAMP BACK UP TUESDAY MID/LATE MORNING. MAY HAVE YIELDED A TAD ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE AND DROPPED POPS TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME STILL FEEL THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS. WITH THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE STATE...EXPECT MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH GA ON TUESDAY. TODAY WILL BE THE LAST REALLY WARM DAY FOR A WHILE /AT LEAST UNTIL SUNDAY/. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH INTO THE 80S...BUT COOLING TUESDAY WITH HIGHS LARGELY IN THE 70S. THIS COOLER TREND CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION. 31 LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SURFACE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL GA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...SO POPS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO CENTRAL GA EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DECREASING AFTER THAT. GENERAL TROUGHING ALOFT WILL TAKE PLACE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK AS A CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH GA. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE. SO POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE FAR NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE NORTH HALF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CIRCULATE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL STAY EAST AND NORTH OF OUR AREA. RIDGING SHOULD GRADUALLY TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING US DRY. 41 && .AVIATION... 12Z UPDATE... LARGELY VFR THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION. SEEING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ALREADY THIS MORNING...BUT OVERALL EXPECTING SLIGHTLY LATER START TO CONVECTION /GENERALLY 20Z AND AFTER...AND HAVE GONE PREVAILING FOR -TSRA. WINDS WILL BE SW AT 6-10KT THROUGH THE DAY...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTION. CIGS WILL DEGRADE TO IFR OVERNIGHT...AND CLEARING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. //ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CONVECTION. MEDIUM ON CIGS WITH CONVECTION. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS. 31 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 83 63 79 54 / 60 60 30 20 ATLANTA 82 63 76 55 / 60 60 30 10 BLAIRSVILLE 77 59 73 49 / 70 70 40 10 CARTERSVILLE 81 61 75 51 / 70 70 30 10 COLUMBUS 85 65 79 57 / 50 40 40 20 GAINESVILLE 79 62 76 54 / 70 70 30 10 MACON 86 65 81 56 / 60 60 50 20 ROME 80 60 76 51 / 70 70 30 5 PEACHTREE CITY 83 62 76 51 / 60 60 40 10 VIDALIA 86 68 83 61 / 60 60 60 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...31 LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...31

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