Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000 FXUS62 KFFC 170811 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 411 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT NEAR A LA GRANGE TO MILLEDGEVILLE LINE. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A FEW SMALL SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY POPPING UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT... AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. THE FRONT IS PROGGD TO SAG SOUTH TODAY AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NORTH MS TRAVERSES THE STATE AND PROVIDES THE NEEDED PUSH. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE BY LATE MORNING... THEN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL WARRANT SHOWING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA TODAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL/DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... BRINGING A RAIN FREE FORECAST TO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN SPREADING IN OVER THE AREA TODAY BEHIND THE SAGGING FRONT... RESULTING IN NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ACROSS NORTH GA TODAY... THEN ACROSS BOTH NORTH AND CENTRAL GA BY THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. A MAV AND MET BLEND FOR TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 39 .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION AND NO PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP GEORGIA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH GA MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STAYING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE DECIDED TO ONLY GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING THE PRECIP SOUTHWARD MONDAY/TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE COOLER TEMPS IN STORE FOR THE STATE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COOLER DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. 01 && .AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE... A COLD FRONT NEAR AN LGC TO MLJ LINE IS PRODUCING A FEW PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CIGS THAT MAY BRIEFLY SPREAD OVER ATL EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY... AND SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF CSG AND MCN BY 16-18Z TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT... BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN ANY TAFS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09-13Z THIS MORNING. A NW FLOW OF 5-10 KTS WILL PERSIST. //ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE... HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS. 39 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 85 61 82 61 / 10 10 10 10 ATLANTA 84 63 84 65 / 10 0 5 10 BLAIRSVILLE 78 56 79 55 / 10 10 5 10 CARTERSVILLE 83 57 84 60 / 5 5 5 10 COLUMBUS 90 63 87 66 / 10 5 5 10 GAINESVILLE 83 62 82 62 / 10 5 5 10 MACON 90 62 86 63 / 10 5 5 10 ROME 84 57 86 59 / 5 5 5 10 PEACHTREE CITY 85 56 84 61 / 10 0 5 10 VIDALIA 88 67 85 67 / 20 10 10 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...39 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...39

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