Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000 FXUS62 KFFC 260238 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 940 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 .UPDATE...
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HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO BRING RAIN FARTHER SOUTH INTO WESTERN GA...AND ALSO EXTENDED THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER INTO THOSE ZONES UNTIL AROUND 05Z. NO CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. 41 .PREVIOUS... .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE COMPLEX SHORT TERM FORECAST. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA DUE TO THE COLD CORE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING. ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA ARE EXPECTING TO SEE 0.5-1.0 INCH OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS /LARGELY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/ OTHER PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA WILL BE TOO WARM TO PROMOTE ANY ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS TIME...THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL ANTICIPATE LIGHT RAIN TO PUSH INTO NW GA THIS EVENING...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. ANTICIPATE THE TRANSITION TO A RAIN-SNOW MIX TO OCCUR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE ADDITIONAL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW MONDAY MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN AREAS ABOVE 1500 FEET AND GENERALLY 0.5 TO 1 INCH OR LESS. SOME PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIP WILL EXIT NW GEORGIA BY MID MORNING MONDAY...RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THE DAY...TAPERING OFF TO SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH IS DISCUSSED MORE IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL FOR THE NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES IN THE CWA. THE ADVISORY MEANS THAT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE BELOW WARNING CRITERIA /OR BELOW 2 INCHES/ BUT THAT INCONVENIENCES ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR NOW...THE METRO ATL AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...AND ALTHOUGH A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO A WINTRY MIX EARLY MONDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED /PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS/...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO TUESDAY. AND ON AN ENTIRELY DIFFERENT NOTE...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER TO THE GRIDS THROUGH LATE EVENING TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH GEORGIA. MODELS HAVE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY /100-200 J/KG/ THAT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO DIMINISH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE NOT CONTINUED THE THUNDER MENTION BEYOND 03Z. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. 31 .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MAIN CHANGE FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY HAS BEEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH...THE RESULT OF A LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THAT ROTATES INTO NORTH GEORGIA. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA THAT WOULD NOT BE LIMITED TO JUST THE MOUNTAINS AS PROFILES ARE MORE THAN COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. QPF HOWEVER IS VERY MEAGER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND JUST NOT SEEING ANY ACCUMULATIONS PAST 12Z TUE. MORE CONCERNING WILL BE RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON ROADS AND THE QUICK TRANSITION TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPS. ELEVATED WINDS WILL HELP IN THE DRYING PROCESS BUT CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS WILL NOT...NOT TO MENTION ANY RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION AS WELL. MAY BE THAT A TIER OF COUNTIES WILL NEED TO BE ADDED TO CURRENT ADVISORY EVENTUALLY FOR BLACK ICE POTENTIAL AND THAT OVERALL ADVISORY IS EXTENDED IN TIME THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...LIMITED CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WITH CONTINUED ADVERTISEMENT OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN TIER ONCE AGAIN ON THU NIGHT. DEESE
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 139 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015/ LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... OTHERWISE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH REST OF LONG TERM WITH SEVERAL OTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING ALONG THE STUBBORN BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT JUST CANNOT SEEM TO SHAKE THE EAST CONUS. HOWEVER...LARGE DISCREPANCIES EXIST IN THE MODELS WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF DISTURBANCES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR NOW LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN LATE SATURDAY. THE THURSDAY SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE A BIT BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM /ECMWF MUCH MORE BULLISH AND LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS/...WHILE THE SATURDAY NIGHT IMPULSE HAS MUCH LESS AMPLITUDE AND MORE OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTH. COLUMN TEMPS BOTH PERIODS SUPPORT POSSIBLE SNOW MIXING INTO THE FAR NORTH SO HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCE MENTION AT THE MOMENT. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AT THE MOMENT AND FUTURE CHANGES ARE LIKELY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFERENCES SEEN IN THE SOLUTIONS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST. BAKER AVIATION... 00Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY 05-07Z. BANDS OF RAIN DEVELOPING AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IN THE NORTHERN TAF SITES...MIXED WINTRY PRECIP POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 06Z. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE LOWEST 2-3KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY 17-18Z. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHWEST TAF SITES THIS EVENING. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-8KT OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS AT 12-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT EXPECTED BY MID MORNING MONDAY. //ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE... MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CEILINGS AND MIXED PRECIPITATION. MEDIUM TO HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 57 38 51 32 / 10 20 20 5 ATLANTA 56 40 47 33 / 10 30 20 5 BLAIRSVILLE 51 36 41 27 / 30 60 40 20 CARTERSVILLE 57 37 45 30 / 30 50 20 5 COLUMBUS 60 41 51 34 / 5 10 10 0 GAINESVILLE 53 38 46 31 / 20 40 40 10 MACON 60 40 53 32 / 5 10 10 0 ROME 56 37 44 29 / 40 50 20 5 PEACHTREE CITY 58 37 48 29 / 5 30 10 0 VIDALIA 61 42 55 36 / 5 10 10 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN... GILMER...GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION... WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD. && $$ SHORT TERM...41 LONG TERM....DEESE AVIATION...41

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