Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000 FXUS62 KFFC 191921 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 321 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... WARM FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FINALLY MOVING OUT OF THE CWFA...BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY IN QLCS TYPE SEGMENTS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DO THINK AFTER THE CURRENT PRECIP MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE A BREAK DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. BY SUNRISE...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE NW CORNER OF THE STATE AND THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN. THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWFA ON MONDAY. ACROSS THE NORTH...SEVERE WEATHER IS LESS LIKELY AS THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND SURFACE HEATING WILL BE LIMITED. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH SHOULD DESTABILIZE THE MOST. IN ADDITION...A NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB TROUGH WILL SWING THOUGH AND A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES HAVE INCREASED A BIT TO AROUND 50KT. AT THIS TIME...THINK THE AREA THAT HAS THE MOST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LA GRANGE TO ATHENS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING SHOULD BE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT. POPS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY MID TO LATE EVENING. NLISTEMAA .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AT LEAST W/RESPECT TO THE LARGER SCALE PATTERNS. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED THE LATER INTO THE RUN THE MORE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SOME OF THE SMALLER FEATURES... BUT OVERALL A GENERAL BLEND AND CONCENTRATION ON THE LARGER SCALE WAS USED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST GRIDS. PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION NOW FINALLY EXITING...USHERING IN A DRIER AND SEASONABLY MILD AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIPS EAST OF THE STATE. WEAK SHORT WAVES IN THE WESTERLY UPPER FLOW AND A WEAK COLD FRONT BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE NORTH. THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN SWEEP BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE GENERATING A DECENT SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE MID WEEK SYSTEM FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND MARGINAL NATURE OF THE INSTABILITY POINT TO MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WEEKEND SYSTEM SHOWING EVEN LESS INSTABILITY...BUT STRONGER DYNAMICS INDICATE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. 20 AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY EXITING THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD ALSO SWITCH AROUND TO THE SW SIDE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT...BUT IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY. TOMORROW IS EXPECTED TO BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. //ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 63 77 53 70 / 40 60 20 5 ATLANTA 64 75 53 68 / 30 50 10 5 BLAIRSVILLE 59 70 46 63 / 50 60 30 5 CARTERSVILLE 62 74 49 68 / 40 50 10 5 COLUMBUS 64 80 55 73 / 30 50 10 5 GAINESVILLE 62 73 52 67 / 40 60 20 5 MACON 64 80 55 73 / 40 50 10 5 ROME 61 73 49 69 / 50 50 10 5 PEACHTREE CITY 63 77 51 70 / 30 50 10 5 VIDALIA 68 82 60 75 / 50 50 40 5 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: EMANUEL...MONTGOMERY...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN... WHEELER. FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BLECKLEY...CLARKE...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY... EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...JACKSON... JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...LAURENS...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN... OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PULASKI...PUTNAM...TALIAFERRO...TELFAIR... TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHEELER... WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON. && $$ SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...NLISTEMAA

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