Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000 FXUS62 KFFC 191937 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 337 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN GA/FL BORDER MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT TAKING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN PROBLEM HAS BEEN HOW HIGH OR LOW THE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE AND ALONG WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA SE OF MCN WHERE SOME MUCAPE COULD FIRE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BRIEF AS THE CAPE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY BY 00Z. THE LINGERING SMALL PRECIP CHANCES TO START EASTER SUNDAY OVER THE FAR E CENTRAL COUNTIES...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE FOR MAINLY CENTRAL GA...WILL END QUICKLY AROUND MIDDAY. THEN THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. STILL SOME PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA BUT ANY GUSTY WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN TONIGHT BUT WILL KICK UP AGAIN FOR PART OF SUNDAY. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND MAY BE A LITTLE TOO LOW BASED ON CURRENT DEW POINTS. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER SUNDAY RUNNING 5-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MCN HAVING THAT 12 DEGREE DEPARTURE DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER. BDL .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LONG TERM BEGINS DRY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY OVER THE STATE. NEXT SHORT WAVE AND FRONT ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK OKAY. HAVE HELD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES...12Z MODELS SEEM A BIT SLOWER WITH THE SURFACE FRONT. NEXT SHORT WAVE SET FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IN GENERAL...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW. 41 PREVIOUS LONG TERM /415 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/... MAIN CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST STAYS FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AND MON BEFORE WEAKENING AND PUSHING FURTHER OUT TO SEA TUE. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE STATE SUN NIGHT WITH PRECIP ENDING . MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH NEXT SYSTEM TUE. 00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z TUE. ITS TRAILING COLDS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE DURING THE DAY TUE. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A BIT LESS INSTABILITY THAT PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS AS TO JUST HOW MUCH THUNDER WE WILL SE. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. 01 AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME IFR AND LOWER VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. MAINLY MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH OCCASIONAL/PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. SURFACE WIND NNE 10-15 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. IMPROVEMENT TRENDS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. //ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... LOW CONFIDENCE FOR VSBYS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR CEILINGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WINDS. BDL
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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ATHENS 48 68 46 78 / 30 10 0 5 ATLANTA 49 68 52 77 / 30 5 0 5 BLAIRSVILLE 48 70 46 75 / 30 0 0 5 CARTERSVILLE 49 72 49 77 / 30 0 0 5 COLUMBUS 51 70 52 79 / 10 5 0 5 GAINESVILLE 49 67 49 74 / 30 0 0 5 MACON 50 66 48 78 / 20 5 0 5 ROME 49 73 48 78 / 30 0 0 5 PEACHTREE CITY 48 69 47 77 / 30 5 0 5 VIDALIA 52 66 53 79 / 20 10 5 5
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&& .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BDL LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...BDL

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