Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000 FXUS62 KFFC 270011 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 811 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS ON POSITION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS SETTING UP OVER THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE NAM IS JUST A LITTLE DRIER. WILL LEAN MORE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER AL/GA. THINKING THAT THE SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING DIMINISHING THE PRECIP SOMEWHAT...BUT THEN ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INCREASING THE PRECIP...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH AND WEST GA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. HIGH K INDEX VALUES ALONG WITH RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIP WATER WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 17 LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE SHOW A MOIST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SCALE BACK RAIN CHANCES AND KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE. HAVE ONLY MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR NEIGHBOR CONSISTENCY AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. 31 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/ A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE FOR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE POTENTIAL TO AFFECT THE AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE TO CONTINUE RATHER HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. A MORE DIURNAL TENDENCY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY DUE TO A WEAKER FLOW ALOFT BUT STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID U.S. APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BDL && .AVIATION... 00Z UPDATE... BAND OF STRONG TSRA HAS PUSHED EAST OF ALL THE TAF SITES BUT A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RA REMAINS. THIS TOO WILL SPREAD EAST OF ALL THE TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND EXPECT MFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. ABUNDANT RAINFALL AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z WED. WILL KEEP PREDOMINANT TSRA FOR WED AFTERNOON FOR NOW BUT MAY BE ABLE TO TRIM BACK TO A TEMPO WITH LATER ISSUANCES. //ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE... MEDIUM ON LOW CLOUD TIMING AND TSRA WED. HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS. DEESE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 67 79 65 83 / 90 80 80 70 ATLANTA 68 80 65 81 / 100 80 80 70 BLAIRSVILLE 65 76 60 79 / 100 80 80 70 CARTERSVILLE 67 81 65 81 / 100 80 80 70 COLUMBUS 69 82 66 84 / 90 80 80 70 GAINESVILLE 65 78 63 80 / 100 80 80 70 MACON 68 82 65 86 / 70 70 70 50 ROME 67 81 66 82 / 90 80 80 60 PEACHTREE CITY 66 79 65 82 / 100 80 80 70 VIDALIA 70 87 68 87 / 40 30 30 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEESE LONG TERM....BAKER AVIATION...DEESE

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