Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000 FXUS62 KFFC 060142 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 940 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .UPDATED... CONVECTION IS AT A MINIMUM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT. HAVE REDUCED THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE...EXCEPT HAVE KEPT CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. 41 .PREVIOUS... .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AND IS NOW LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN KY/WESTERN VA. TWO MAIN AREAS OF PRECIP ARE PERSISTING ACROSS THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST IS A LARGER AREA OF PRECIP IN THE SE. THE SECOND AREA OF PRECIP IS MORE CELLULAR IN NATURE...AND IS CLOSEST TO THE FORCING PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LOW. A DRIER FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING...EXPECT COVERAGE OF STORMS TO DECREASE. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING BY SUNRISE. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED BEGINNING MONDAY. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO DAMPEN OUT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE UPPER FLOW ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SW...SO MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD FROM THE GOMEX. WITH NO REAL BOUNDARY TO FOCUS CONVECTION...WILL LEAVE POPS AT SCATTERED. HAVE CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH A LITTLE EARLY. NOT EXPECTED THE SCATTERED STORMS UP NORTH TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. NLISTEMAA .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE. BDL PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN STILL LOOKS ON TAP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BY MID WEEK AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME... IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL BE ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE STRONGER RIDGE INFLUENCE BEGINS TO TAKE BETTER HOLD BY WEDNESDAY. INCREASING RIDGE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BRING AMPLE SUNSHINE AND HELP PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 90S FOR MOST AREAS. THIS HEAT WILL WARRANT HOLDING ONTO A LOW CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY... AND A FEW PULSE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING MAX HEATING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. 39 && .AVIATION... 00Z UPDATE... CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND NOTHING THREATENING THE TAF SITES. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME MVFR/IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED IN TAFS. DIURNAL CUMULUS EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE. //ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE... MEDIUM ON OVERNIGHT CEILINGS. HIGH ON OTHER ELEMENTS. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 68 89 70 92 / 40 30 20 30 ATLANTA 70 86 72 89 / 30 40 20 30 BLAIRSVILLE 62 83 64 85 / 50 30 20 40 CARTERSVILLE 68 87 69 89 / 30 40 20 30 COLUMBUS 70 88 72 91 / 30 40 20 30 GAINESVILLE 68 86 70 88 / 40 30 20 30 MACON 70 90 71 93 / 30 40 20 40 ROME 68 87 69 90 / 30 40 20 30 PEACHTREE CITY 69 87 69 90 / 30 40 20 30 VIDALIA 71 90 72 94 / 40 50 30 40 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...41 LONG TERM....BDL AVIATION...41

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