Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000 FXUS62 KFFC 081123 AAA AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 620 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... STILL NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING AT A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY TODAY WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION... MAINLY RAIN ELSEWHERE BEFORE LATE IN THE DAY WHEN COLD AIR SPILLS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. MODEL AND WPC QPF REMAINS LOW...WHICH IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LOW PW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SNOWFALL TOTALS LIMITED...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS SINCE HIGHEST QPF MOST AREAS IS BEFORE THE CHANGE- OVER TO ALL OR PREDOMINATELY SNOW. MOUNTAIN COUNTIES STILL REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS DUE TO THE CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW EARLIER BEFORE QPF VALUES DROP. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL NEED TO ADD CATOOSA AND WHITFIELD COUNTIES FOR SNOWFALL POTENTIAL IN THEIR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STILL LIKELY TO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY THROUGH THE ATLANTA AND ATHENS METRO AREAS AND INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA TONIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS. 20 .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 500MB TROUGH AND STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SO ANY LINGERING ISO/SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THIS PERIOD. SINCE THE ATMOS IS PRETTY DRY AT THIS POINT AND VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW IS ANTICIPATED. THE FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND THE MID LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET. CWFA WILL REMAIN IN NW FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE PROGGING A PRETTY GOOD SHORTWAVE TO DIG DOWN IN THE FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS IS ALSO COINCIDENT WITH A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF/FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL START PUSHING NORTH LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY KEPT POPS AT 20 PERCENT OR LESS DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF IS COMING IN A LITTLE WETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE SYSTEM IS STILL A LITTLE FAR OUT...SO WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE FOR NOW AND KEEP POPS CAPPED AT 20 PERCENT OR LESS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. PTYPE MAY BE AN ISSUE WITH THE FRIDAY SYSTEM. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...TEMPS LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. HOWEVER...FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKIER. THE PRECIPITATION MAY END AS A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN GA. ITS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO NAIL DOWN EXACT PTYPES...SO WILL GO WITH RA OR SN. INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER AWARE...ESPECIALLY SINCE PTYPE ISSUES ARE INVOLVED. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT FRONT MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT THE CWFA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. NLISTEMAA && .AVIATION... 12Z UPDATE... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO START WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA... MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CEILINGS MOVING INTO THE ATLANTA METRO AND ATHENS TAF SITES AFTER 00Z...CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WILL TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE IN THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...MAINLY IMPACTING THE ATLANTA AND ATHENS TAF SITES. WEST WINDS 3-6KT WILL INCREASE TO 8-10KT BY 15-16Z AND 10-15KT W/ GUSTS 20-25KT BY 18Z...THEN DIMINISH TO 8-12KT W/ OCCASIONAL GUSTS 17-20KT AFTER 00Z. //ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... MEDIUM TO HIGH MOST ELEMENTS. 20 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 53 29 38 23 / 40 40 10 10 ATLANTA 50 28 36 23 / 30 30 10 10 BLAIRSVILLE 44 23 29 17 / 60 60 40 30 CARTERSVILLE 50 28 35 21 / 40 40 20 10 COLUMBUS 54 31 42 26 / 20 20 5 5 GAINESVILLE 49 27 34 22 / 50 50 20 10 MACON 56 32 42 25 / 30 30 5 5 ROME 48 28 35 20 / 40 40 20 10 PEACHTREE CITY 52 29 37 23 / 30 30 10 10 VIDALIA 60 34 45 28 / 20 20 5 5 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...DAWSON...FANNIN... GILMER...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE...WHITFIELD. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA AVIATION...20

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