Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000 FXUS62 KFFC 220635 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 235 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1053 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017/ UPDATE... Clouds will be on the increase overnight, but the forecast will remain dry. Along with increased cloud cover, overnight lows will be several degrees warmer than the past few nights, generally in the 50s and 60s. No forecast changes are needed at this time. RW PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 739 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017/ PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 318 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017/ SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/... High pressure over the Middle Atlantic will continue to shift offshore the eastern US through Sunday. The forecast is expected to remain dry through tonight, but precipitation chances will increase later Sunday into Sunday night. Quite a bit of cirrus has overspread the area today and have adjusted the cloud cover upwards in the grids. Along with the bkn high clouds, low level cloudiness will increase towards sunrise. The timing of the bkn/ovc cloud cover could impact min temps and they might have to be bumped upwards. Precipitation chances will begin to increase, especially from the west, Sunday night as a cold front approaches from the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Instability doesn`t look all that impressive Sunday night, but a few thunderstorms are possible along with some locally heavy rain. NListemaa LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/... Mainly only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance. The overall forecast speed of the next system seems to have increased. A wet Monday is still expected with a few strong thunderstorms still possible. Will continue to monitor the potential for any severe storms and flash flooding. BDL PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Still some variation concerning timing/path/strength of the system sweeping through the region at the beginning of the period. However, Early Monday through Monday evening is still looking like the most likely timeframe across the forecast area. Models continue to show minimal instability, but strong dynamics and good shear continue to point to at least a slight chance for some strong to severe convection during the day Monday. System moves east quickly overnight into Tuesday morning, but secondary strong short wave and marginal residual moisture keeps a slight chance for a few showers across the far north through the day Wednesday. Good shot of cold air behind this system brings well below normal temperatures into the state Tuesday/Wednesday, but models are now showing a pretty quick recovery by the end of the work week. Another quick moving system sweeps in for the weekend. Moisture return is not progged to be spectacular, but should be sufficient for at least a low chance of showers moving into the northwest by Friday night, spreading across the forecast area Saturday. 20 HYDROLOGY... A period of heavy rainfall potential can be expected starting late Sunday night into Monday night and affecting north GA the most. Storm total rainfall of 1 to 3 inches can be expected for much of the area with the greatest amounts in the n GA mountains and the least amounts across the southern portions of central GA. Minor flooding will be possible and will be highly dependent on the overall speed of the system. Conditions will continued to be evaluated for flash flood potential across portions of n GA. && .AVIATION... 06Z Update... VFR conditions to start but ceilings things will transition into the MVFR range around sunrise. looking for BKN025 by around 10z with some potential for lower clouds in the 1500ft range. Ceilings by midday Sunday should lift back into the VFR range but will stay BKN to OVC. Precip will move into the TAF sites just after 00z Mon with SHRA/TSRA increasing through the night. Winds will remain out of the E to SE through the period. Wind speeds will start near 5kts increasing to 10-12 knots this afternoon with gusts to 20kts. gust will trail off after 00z Mon. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium confidence on ceilings. High confidence on other elements. 01 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 77 64 71 54 / 10 70 100 70 Atlanta 77 66 70 54 / 10 70 100 50 Blairsville 71 60 66 48 / 10 70 100 60 Cartersville 76 65 70 51 / 5 80 100 40 Columbus 83 69 74 56 / 10 80 100 30 Gainesville 73 63 69 53 / 10 70 100 60 Macon 82 68 74 54 / 20 70 90 50 Rome 77 65 70 51 / 5 80 100 30 Peachtree City 78 66 71 52 / 10 70 100 50 Vidalia 82 70 79 59 / 30 50 90 70 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...01

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