Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000 FXUS62 KFFC 051112 AAA AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 712 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... /ISSUED 309 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015/ WITH THE RETURN OF BETTER MOISTURE TODAY...EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY LIMITED STILL WITH AROUND 1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A STRONG STORM THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT TERM THOUGH IS A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE TRACK ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL BRING US THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WE HAVE SEEN IN AWHILE. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE MENTION OF LIKELY POPS FOR NORTH GEORGIA ON THURSDAY AND SPREAD THEM FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE METRO AREA. IN ADDITION...OUR INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS DAY WITH VALUES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG. SHEAR IS MARGINAL...BUT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY VALUES AND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO KEY IN ON...COULD SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA BUT WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE ON THURSDAY...WILL SEE A DECREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. 11 LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... /ISSUED 309 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015/ LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS AS AN ACTIVE PERIOD AS WE WILL BE IN THE MIDST OF A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE PASSAGE WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. AS ALREADY MENTIONED...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY VALUES ARE MARGINAL AND THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DESPITE THIS...STILL THINK THERE WILL BE AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS ONGOING THROUGH THU NIGHT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. DESPITE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH REPRIEVE AS NW FLOW ALOFT ENTRENCHES ITSELF ALLOWING FOR A SERIES OF ADDITIONAL WAVES TO MOVE THROUGH. WHAT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE IS AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS EXTREME NORTH GA WILL ONLY SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.30 INCHES. MOIST ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND WILL SEE HIGHEST POPS THERE IN THE LOW END LIKELY CATEGORY. GIVEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTH HOWEVER...FEEL ALL AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE DESPITE THE DISPARITY IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE. SAME SETUP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MOST AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS. OVERALL MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND THIS WILL LIMIT POPS TO THE SCATTERED RANGE FOR ALL AREAS. WILL SEE YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL FRONTAL NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. COULD BE LOOKING AT LEAST LIKELY POPS ON ONE OR BOTH OF THESE DAYS BUT WILL LIMIT TO HIGH END CHANCE FOR NOW BEING THIS FAR OUT. DEESE && .AVIATION... 12Z UPDATE... CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A CHANCE AT EACH TAF SITE...HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 BUT WITH FUTURE UPDATES WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER TEMPO. WHILE THE PRO30S ARE FOR 21Z AND AFTER...ITS POSSIBLE TO SEE TSRA ANYTIME AFTER 19Z. WINDS AT ATL SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE. //ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS...CIGS AND WIND. MEDIUM ON TIMING OF PRECIP. 11 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 97 71 90 72 / 30 30 60 60 ATLANTA 94 73 89 73 / 30 30 60 60 BLAIRSVILLE 91 68 82 65 / 40 30 60 60 CARTERSVILLE 96 72 87 70 / 30 30 60 60 COLUMBUS 95 75 92 74 / 30 30 60 60 GAINESVILLE 95 72 87 71 / 40 30 60 60 MACON 96 73 91 73 / 30 30 50 60 ROME 96 72 89 70 / 30 30 60 50 PEACHTREE CITY 95 71 89 72 / 30 30 60 60 VIDALIA 96 75 93 75 / 30 20 50 50 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....DEESE AVIATION...11

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