Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000 FXUS62 KFFC 221946 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 246 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS SHIFTING EAST BUT STILL RIDGING IN PLACE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS. AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE CWA...WILL SEE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. HARD TO TELL AT THIS POINT HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE IT INITIALLY BUT THIS WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH BASICALLY A 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE CWA. FINALLY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS TX THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE TN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN PUSHING SOME OF THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. MUCAPE VALUES REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH IS PRETTY DECENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GFS SHOWS 30-40KTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME VALUES EXCEEDING 50KTS. THE NAM MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...BUT EVEN SO IF THE NAM OR GFS VALUES ARE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AS THEY HAVE DECENT SHEAR AND MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 100- 300J/KG BUT LESS LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA. LOOKING AT THE LOCAL WRF...IT IMPLIES WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNRISE...THEN POTENTIALLY A FEW BREAKS IN THE PRECIP...THEN MORE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES THROUGH. BESIDES SEVERE...HYDROLOGY IS THE OTHER ASPECT TO THIS SYSTEM. SEE THE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN. WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS GA. FOR SUNDAY...BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET. MET IS MUCH COLDER AND KEEPS AREA CLOUDY WHILE THE MAV IS WARMER AND TRIES TO PUSH CLOUDS OUT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT THINK IT WOULD BE LIMITED SO STAYED IN THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE. 11 .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE SUNDAY SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING RAPIDLY LEAVING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT DRY AIR WILL HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ENDING THE PRECIP. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP KICK THE UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD AS WELL AS GENERATE ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EXIT THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR SPREADS OVER THE CWA. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. 17 && .HYDROLOGY... SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH AROUND 2-2.5 ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE GROUND SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS MUCH PRECIP. EVEN SO WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. && .AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES BUT OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. SOME GUIDANCE POINTS AT 400FT SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUNDAY MORNING CLOSELY. RAIN WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT AT THE TAF SITES. HAVE MOVED THE TIMING UP SLIGHTLY IN THE TAFS...BUT MAY STILL BE ON THE SLOW SIDE...PARTICULARLY AT THE ATL SITES AND AHN. //ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND CIGS. 11 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 44 55 53 68 / 90 100 70 20 ATLANTA 46 57 54 66 / 90 100 40 10 BLAIRSVILLE 40 54 47 61 / 70 100 60 20 CARTERSVILLE 44 57 51 64 / 80 100 50 10 COLUMBUS 52 65 59 70 / 100 100 40 10 GAINESVILLE 44 54 49 64 / 90 100 60 10 MACON 53 66 61 73 / 100 100 60 20 ROME 44 58 53 63 / 80 100 50 10 PEACHTREE CITY 47 58 54 67 / 100 100 40 10 VIDALIA 56 71 65 75 / 100 100 80 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...11

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