Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000 FXUS62 KFFC 310908 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 508 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A LOT GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AND POSSIBLY OUR FIRST ENCOUNTER WITH WINTERY PRECIPITATION. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE AN UNSEASONABLY POTENT UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIG SOUTHWARD AND CUTOFF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOWING MOISTURE CLIPPING NE GA BEGINNING TONIGHT AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS. BASED ON LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND PROGGED OMEGA...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN ACROSS NORTH GA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIP FRIDAY EVENING AS THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR THE DRY SLOT TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE STATE BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SAT. THE BACK SIDE MOISTURE BEGINS TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING LOW CENTER EARLY PUSHING INTO NE GA BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SAT. AS THIS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVES IN A COLD AIRMASS IS ALSO BEING ADVECTED SOUTHWARD AND COULD SEE TEMPS DIP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. WITH THE COLD AIRMASS AND MOISTURE OVER NORTH GA WE MAY ALE SEE OUR FIRST SNOW FALL OF THE SEASON AS WELL. HAVE PUT IN A MENTION OF SNOW FOR NE GA BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS. THERMAL PROFILES NEAR BRASSTOWN BALD ARE DEFINITELY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AND SHOW SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAINLY AFTER 03-06Z SATURDAY. FORECAST 850MB TEMPS EVEN GET AS LOW AS -8 C BASED ON THE GFS FOR 12Z SATURDAY. AMOUNTS ARE NOT VERY CLEAR THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT AT GENERALLY IN THE 0.20-0.50 INCH RANGE FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE TEMPS...THE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY STICK TO GRASSY AREAS AND ELEVATED SURFACES...THOUGH MAY STRUGGLE TO STICK TO ROADWAYS GIVEN SOME HIGHER SOIL TEMPS. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH GOOD VORTICITY SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LINGERING FLURRIES EVEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHEAST AS WELL. GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG SATURDAY AS WELL AND WILL MOST LIKELY REACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. 01 .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 20S IN THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK WITH SOME TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THIS NEXT FRONT...HOWEVER LOW POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. 41
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&& AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD BUT THINGS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT WINDS SPEEDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 6KT OR LESS BUT WILL SEE SPEEDS INCREASE TO 12-15KT GUSTING TO 20KT BY 18-19Z. WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE 20KT GUSTING TO 30KT BY 08-10Z. CLOUDS ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS 8000FT TO 12000FT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS LOWER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH BKN025 EXPECTED BY 01Z AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE ATL AREA TAF SITES. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT A BIT THROUGH SAT MORNING WITH BKN035 EXPECTED BY SUNRISE. //ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND WIND SPEEDS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VSBYS...AND PRECIP. 01 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 67 37 53 35 / 10 30 20 0 ATLANTA 66 35 51 36 / 10 10 5 0 BLAIRSVILLE 57 30 44 29 / 40 40 40 0 CARTERSVILLE 64 35 50 33 / 20 20 10 0 COLUMBUS 71 39 56 39 / 5 5 0 0 GAINESVILLE 62 36 49 35 / 30 30 20 0 MACON 71 39 56 37 / 5 5 5 0 ROME 64 34 50 34 / 30 30 10 0 PEACHTREE CITY 67 36 53 35 / 10 10 5 0 VIDALIA 74 40 56 40 / 5 5 5 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER... GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER... WHITE...WHITFIELD.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...01

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