Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000 FXUS62 KFFC 011934 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 334 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE COMBINATION OF WEAK RIDGING AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY...DIMINISHING AFTER 10 PM. MLCAPES CONTINUE TO BE DECENT...WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT NECESSARILY ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TUESDAY...AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STORMS TUESDAY WILL LIKELY FIRE ALONG OLD BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO MID WEEK. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE LOW TO MID 90S IN THE AFTERNOON. 31 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN STATES THRU SATURDAY. EVEN BY THE WEEKEND...NO INDICATION OF STRONG PATTERN SHIFT OR AIRMASS CHANGE IN 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE. MED RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT HEIGHT AND MOISTURE FIELDS WHICH GET ABOUT AS CLOSE AS YOU CAN POSSIBLY GET TO MEDIAN CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST OF SEPTEMBER. WARM DAYS AND NIGHTS WITH APPROX 30PCT COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER COVERAGE BASED ON MODEL MEAN RH FIELDS. NOT SEEING ANY HIGH IMPACT...TROPICAL SYSTEMS OR PATTERN CHANGING FEATURES IN MODEL FORECASTS. 12Z GFS DOES TAKE A TURN FOR A WARMER PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER HIGH BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...BUT THIS SOLUTION NOT CONSISTENT WITH PREV RUNS OR 12Z ECMWF. REFRESHED TEMPS BASED ON 30DAY BIAS CORRECTED GRIDDED BLENDED GUIDANCE AND LATEST HPC GUIDANCE. MOST OTHER FIELDS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ACCURATE DEPICTION OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IN POP AND WX GRIDS. SNELSON PREV LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ISSUED 323 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID- WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON WEDNESDAY...BUT A WEAK BOUNDARY MAY TRY AND SNEAK THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD DIMINISH BY FRIDAY. A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT THE CWFA DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE BOUNDARYS PROGRESSION DOWN. OVERALL...NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. POPS WILL MAINLY REMAIN DIURNAL IN NATURE. COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS. NLISTEMAA && AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN CU THIS AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MODELS DO ADVERTISE A MID LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH AT LEAST FEW-SCT 5-6KFT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-WNW BY 14-15Z...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 6KT OR LESS. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS TUESDAY WILL BE 19-22Z. //ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS. 31 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 70 95 70 95 / 20 40 30 30 ATLANTA 73 93 73 90 / 20 30 20 30 BLAIRSVILLE 65 88 66 86 / 20 30 30 40 CARTERSVILLE 70 94 68 91 / 20 20 20 30 COLUMBUS 74 96 74 92 / 20 30 20 40 GAINESVILLE 71 92 71 91 / 20 30 30 40 MACON 71 95 71 94 / 20 40 20 40 ROME 69 94 68 91 / 20 20 20 30 PEACHTREE CITY 69 92 68 91 / 20 30 20 30 VIDALIA 74 95 74 93 / 20 30 30 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...31 LONG TERM....SNELSON AVIATION...31

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