Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000 FXUS62 KFFC 110540 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1240 AM EST Sun Dec 11 2016 .UPDATE...
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/Issued at 1052 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016/ Temps dropping a little more than previous expected and have therefore lowered min temps tonight. No other changes planned.
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION...
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/Issued 615 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016/ UPDATE... Updated for the 00Z Aviation Discussion. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 223 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016/ SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/... Mostly clear skies will continue to prevail across the CWFA through most of tonight. Low level moisture will begin to increase across the area as prolonged easterly flow sets up - helping to increase the cloud cover through tomorrow. No precipitation is expected during the day Sunday. A cold front will begin to approach the northern CWFA Sunday Night...bringing a chance of rain mainly to the northern zones. Since temperatures will be moderating fairly quickly, no frozen precip is expected at this time. NListemaa LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/... Models coming into better agreement for the long term. A potent sfc low with an associated cold front draped down across north TX will progress eastward early Monday. Meanwhile, high pressure well to our east will still be nosed in across portions of north and central Georgia. With overrunning precipitation/isentropic lift ahead of the next front, expect a chance of light precipitation by early Monday morning. However, as heights fall and the sfc high shifts even further offshore, expect the wedge to erode and return flow to develop area wide through Monday. This will mean a moist airmass will quickly infiltrate the region as the front nears. It should be noted that much of the dynamics and lift associated with the front will be north of the area, so not expecting a complete washout or severe threat with this boundary. The front will eventually become stalled and wash out across the region through Wednesday. With mid level impulses crossing, this will allow the boundary to be the focus for sfc low development through mid-week. Therefore, expect a wet and mild first half of the week. Storm total rainfall amounts of around 0.75 inch in the extreme north to around 0.25 inch in central GA can be expected. With little mid/upper level forcing, do not see much in the way of instability, so have kept thunder out of the grids. As a trough crosses to our north, it will allow cold high pressure to the NW to build into the region. Meanwhile a deepening trough to the west will eject mid- level impulses toward the region. Another overrunning precipitation scenario may take shape. Either way, as the sfc high settles offshore and moist southerly flow increase by Friday/Saturday, looking at an increase potential for precipitation by the end of the week. 26/16
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&& .AVIATION...
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06Z Update... VFR conditions are expected to continue overnight. Then model guidances agree on MVFR cigs spreading up from the south and over the Atlanta TAF sites by 14z-15Z later this morning. The MVFR cigs will lower to IFR levels by 00Z-03z Mon and may even lower to LIFR levels by 06-09z Mon when -RADZ is expected to become prevailing. Easterly winds around 6-8kts is expected to prevail through tonight... but could begin to veer slightly more ESE by 12z Mon. Best rain chances will begin north of ATL/AHN this afternoon and into early this evening... but -RADZ along with MVFR Vsby`s should gradually spread into Atlanta and most TAF sites by 04-06z Mon. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium on timing of MVFR and IFR cigs/vsby. High on remaining elements. 39
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 48 26 44 39 / 0 0 20 30 Atlanta 49 33 46 42 / 0 0 20 30 Blairsville 44 25 43 38 / 0 0 30 50 Cartersville 46 25 47 42 / 0 0 20 40 Columbus 53 35 53 48 / 0 0 20 30 Gainesville 47 27 42 39 / 0 0 30 40 Macon 52 29 51 45 / 0 0 20 30 Rome 47 24 49 42 / 0 0 20 50 Peachtree City 50 24 48 41 / 0 0 20 30 Vidalia 54 33 59 50 / 0 5 20 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...17/39 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...39

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