Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000 FXUS62 KFFC 222326 AAB AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 725 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .UPDATE... DECIDED TO INCLUDE GILMER COUNTY IN THE FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT. COVERAGE OF TEMPERATURES IS SPOTTY BUT THERE ARE ENOUGH AREAS THAT MAY SEE SOME FROST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY...TO INCLUDE IT. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. 20 && .PREV DISCUSSION...
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/ISSUED 316 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE CWA IS UNDER NW FLOW INITIALLY WITH RIDGING OVER THE MS VALLEY AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE NW. THESE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE AREA IS MUCH DRIER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY IN TERMS OF PW VALUES AND THE NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO PERSIST...DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE LOWER GUIDANCE VALUES OR EVEN A BLEND...TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SINCE THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT BIAS TOWARDS BEING TOO COLD OVERNIGHT. THIS RESULTED IN VALUES DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS FAR NE GEORGIA. WITH THE CALM WINDS AND SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...EXPECT FROST ACROSS THAT AREA AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR FIVE COUNTIES ACROSS THE FAR NE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COULD STILL SEE PATCHY FROST ACROSS OTHER ISOLATED AREAS IN NORTH GEORGIA. AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY SHIFTS EAST AND THE NW FLOW BEINGS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM A COUPLE DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...LOWS ONLY DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S SO AT THIS POINT JUST A TAD TOO WARM FOR FROST FRIDAY MORNING. 11 LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE LONG TERM. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... 17 LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... /ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/ CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...BUT TWO COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT GA DURING THE PERIOD. AN EARLY WEEKEND COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A SECOND COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS CURRENTLY HAVE THE COLDEST MIN TEMPS. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...IF TEMPS ARE COLDER THEN PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR THE NORTHEAST GA MTNS. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. NLISTEMAA
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&& AVIATION... 00Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 04Z-14Z IN FOG...HOWEVER I DO NOT ANTICIPATED ANY RESTRICTIONS AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT 8KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. //ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE... HIGH. 20 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 40 70 43 71 / 0 0 0 5 ATLANTA 44 70 48 70 / 0 0 0 5 BLAIRSVILLE 34 67 40 67 / 0 0 0 5 CARTERSVILLE 37 68 39 70 / 0 0 0 5 COLUMBUS 44 72 46 74 / 0 0 0 5 GAINESVILLE 44 69 46 70 / 0 0 0 5 MACON 39 72 41 75 / 0 0 0 5 ROME 39 69 41 71 / 0 0 0 5 PEACHTREE CITY 38 70 39 72 / 0 0 0 5 VIDALIA 47 72 48 75 / 0 0 0 5 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....39 AVIATION...20

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