Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
766 FXUS62 KFFC 281138 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 738 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017/ SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/... Second round of thunderstorms continues to roll through the Northern tier. Low end CAPE values still reside along an axis from Central Alabama in to West Central GA so would expect to continue to see some lightning with ongoing activity. All short term hi res show and gradual shift in activity through the ATL metro through daybreak as well as an overall weakening trend which looks on target given aforementioned instability. Will likely be dealing with some low clouds early on in the day for Central GA which should delay any further development but eventually by this afternoon...additional activity should fire. Moisture and CAPE values will be modest at best but supportive for low end sct thunderstorm development generally between the I20 and I16 corridors. Still some cold temps aloft but trends in lapse rates will be downward as shortwave passes to the east and ridge builds in. Not out of the question for a strong storm or two but should be very isolated in nature if at all. Not much change for Wed except that upper ridge gets even a little stronger in response to digging trough well to the west. This will allow for temps just about areawide to reach the low to mid 80s. Ridge should also preclude any significant precip development but will keep a sliver of 20 pops across Central GA for now where moisture and instability is enhanced. Deese LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/... The beginning of the long term period is characterized by more unsettled weather. Rain chances will initially increase Thursday especially across the eastern sections of CWA in vicinity of weak wedge front. The main storm system then quickly encroaches on the area from the west Thursday night into Friday bringing good shower and thunderstorm chances area wide. The possibility for some strong to severe thunderstorm activity remains during this time frame with adequate shear though instability is less impressive. Nonetheless, it is something to watch as we head from Thursday night into Friday. This storm system exits east by Saturday with a dry and warm weekend in store thanks to upper ridging. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday will be several degrees above average with mostly sunny skies. Early next week will transition back into an active pattern, though models diverge on timing and evolution of the next storm system. The ECMWF brings the next system into the area as early as Monday while the GFS holds off until Tuesday. Regardless, expect the brief inactive weather this weekend to come to an end early next week. RW .AVIATION... 12Z UPDATE... With SHRA/TSRA moving through in waves...environment remains mixed enough to prevent any developing IFR across the area. Indications are this will be changing later this morning with at least some MVFR to develop the west and then moving in with low level SW flow. Have gone TEMPO MVFR for now for the ATL sites and then improvement to VFR by early afternoon. Discontinued threat of TSRA this afternoon at ATL terminals but kept at MCN and CSG with low end chance in the grids requiring a Prob30 for those terminals. //ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE... Medium on MVFR development. High on remaining elements. Deese && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 78 54 83 58 / 30 5 0 5 Atlanta 76 57 82 61 / 30 20 10 5 Blairsville 71 48 77 55 / 20 5 0 5 Cartersville 76 53 81 59 / 30 10 5 5 Columbus 80 61 85 60 / 30 20 20 0 Gainesville 75 54 80 58 / 30 5 0 5 Macon 80 59 85 60 / 30 10 20 5 Rome 76 52 81 58 / 20 10 5 5 Peachtree City 77 56 83 57 / 40 30 20 5 Vidalia 83 63 86 63 / 30 10 10 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Deese LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...Deese

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.