Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000 FXUS64 KFWD 251736 AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1236 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015 .AVIATION... LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING EASTWARD AND SHOULD ARRIVE IN METROPLEX FROM WEST TO EAST AND AFFECT TAFS SITES BETWEEN 19Z-22Z. STRONG TO SEVERE WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH TEMPORARY IFR/LIFR VSBY IN HEAVY RAINS. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE RATHER QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND EXPECT BY 6PM LOCAL AND 23Z TO SEE STORMS EAST OF TAF SITES. WILL WATCH FOR POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND SQUALL LINE...BUT BELIEVE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO WORKED OVER FOR AN ADDITIONAL ROUND. FOR WACO MORE CELLULAR ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF LINE AND WILL SHOW A TEMPO FROM 18Z TO 22Z. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MVFR STRATUS SHOULD ARRIVE BY EARLY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES...SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT 10-15KT. ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED IN COVERAGE. MAY NEED VCTS IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES. TR.92 && .UPDATE... WE/RE ISSUING A QUICK MID MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS UPWARD FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE MCS/SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS MOST AREAS WEST OF I-35 BY NOON TIME AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS ARE HIGH AND ALL FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE EXPECTED. 12Z FWD SOUNDING HAS SBCAPE OF 3100 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE. ALTHOUGH A CAP IS PRESENT...IT WILL BE OVERTAKEN AROUND MIDDAY. VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY. DISCRETE CELLS OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DEVELOP STRONG ROTATING UPDRAFTS THAT WILL LEAD TO SOME TORNADOES. FLASH FLOODING COULD BECOME A PROBLEM IF RAINFALL COMES DOWN VERY HARD AND FAST...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. 75 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/ A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR EL PASO IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE DAY TODAY...PROVIDING OUR NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTIVE WEATHER FOLLOWING A SHORT REPRIEVE OVERNIGHT. STRONG ASCENT WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEST OF OUR CWA. HI-RES MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP EAST INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIME OF DAY SHOULD ENSURE MAXIMUM INSTABILITY AS LIFT SPREADS OVERHEAD LATER TODAY. SBCAPE IN THE RANGE OF 2000-4000 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT WHEN COMBINED WITH MARGINAL BULK SHEAR VALUES TO GENERATE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS WHAT WE EXPERIENCED DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY EVENT. HOWEVER...RESPECTABLE PWATS OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES WILL STILL BE PLENTY HIGH FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. FORTUNATELY...THIS SYSTEM IS PRETTY PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD ACCELERATE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS...ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THAT A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OVERHEAD TUESDAY FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF TODAY/S FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE. THIS PATTERN WILL SET US UP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GOOD SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AREA-WIDE AS A DRYLINE SURGES EAST NEAR THE WESTERN CWA BORDER. WE HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 ACROSS THE WEST AND THE MID 80S ELSEWHERE. OVERALL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...SO THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY NOT BECOME PARTICULARLY HIGH. HOWEVER...GOOD MOISTURE AND IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY VALUES WILL ENSURE THAT JUST ABOUT ANY STORM WHICH DEVELOPS WILL BECOME SEVERE. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP 30 POPS OVER THE WEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...BRINGING A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES MIDWEEK. GOOD MOISTURE AND STRONG LIFT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST FROM THE WEST COAST INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN SLOW DOWN...BROADEN AND LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO NEXT MONDAY. ANOTHER BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 81 66 87 70 85 / 90 40 20 30 20 WACO, TX 84 67 86 71 86 / 90 30 20 20 20 PARIS, TX 77 65 82 68 85 / 90 70 20 20 20 DENTON, TX 79 64 86 69 86 / 90 30 20 30 20 MCKINNEY, TX 81 65 84 69 86 / 90 40 20 30 20 DALLAS, TX 83 66 86 71 87 / 90 40 20 30 20 TERRELL, TX 83 66 85 71 88 / 90 50 20 20 20 CORSICANA, TX 81 67 85 72 86 / 90 50 20 20 20 TEMPLE, TX 82 67 87 70 88 / 90 30 20 20 20 MINERAL WELLS, TX 77 64 88 69 86 / 90 20 30 30 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095- 100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$

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