Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000 FXUS64 KFWD 291135 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 635 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 .AVIATION...
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12 UTC TAF Cycle Concerns---None. VFR with north/northeast winds. VFR will prevail through the entire TAF cycle for all of North and Central TX sites. Sustained north to northeast winds will be breezy with speeds around 10 knots. With decent vertical mixing, a few wind gusts to near 15-18 knots cannot be ruled out. The building ridge will ensure that high clouds at FL250-300 will continue to filter into North and Central TX terminals. Wind speeds will likely subside after sunset with wind direction becoming a bit more variable. 24-Bain
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION...
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/ISSUED 318 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016/ Though 3 to 4 hours slower than expected on previous forecast, the cold front is now here and moving into Central Texas as noted by area radar and observations. Meanwhile, a broad upper ridge has developed over the Plains, while a detached upper low continues sinking slowly south across the Ohio Valley and toward the Tennessee Valley. Mostly sunny skies will occur underneath the upper ridge today, while modest cold advection occurs in the lowest 5000 feet. The thermal advection will combine with mixing today for a breezy and mild day with highs mostly in the 70s. North winds will diminish as the boundary layer decouples after nightfall. With the dry air in place, radiational cooling will allow for a crisp Friday morning with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. The dry airmass in place will allow for a rapid warm up underneath abundant sunshine on Friday with high temperatures continuing in the 70s. A broad surface high pressure ridge settles into the area late Friday into early Saturday with lows starting out in the 50s Saturday morning, before weak low level southerly flow and warm advection allow for highs rebounding Saturday back to into the lower to mid 80s. Next week will start off breezy and warm both Monday and Tuesday with the return of low level warm advection and richer dew points. The richest moisture is expected to be somewhat delayed by the current cold front having scoured the continental shelf of the immediate Texas Gulf Coast. Increasing southwest flow aloft will also strengthen over the Plains and help enhance the elevated warm mixed layer(or cap) overhead, as a longwave trough deepens over the Western U.S and the previous upper low over the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys departs northeast over New England/Eastern Canada. A lead shortwave is forecast to lift out across the central High plains late Tuesday, which will help move a surface dryline east toward our far western counties. Best forcing should remain northwest of the area, however, a brief/isolated late day thunderstorm can`t be ruled out Tuesday afternoon if the cap can lift and weaken. As the main longwave trough approaches Tuesday night through Thursday, height falls will spread across the Southern Plains and Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday. Strong warm advection and theta-E advection is expected ahead of a strong Pacific cold front during this time period. I expect scattered, elevated convection will develop across Northwest Texas Tuesday night, then become surface-based with the Pacific cold front moving through the CWA Wednesday night and Thursday. The Euro becomes much more progressive with the system as a whole versus the GFS moving into late next week. I have generally taken a blend on timing with the cold front and convective chances with a preference toward the Euro given its proven track record beyond 5 days. After the Pacific cold front passes through early Thursday, rain chances will shift east of the area. Cooler and drier air will work its way into the area as mid level heights slowly increase overhead. The second weekend of October should be much like the first, dry and slightly below seasonal normals. 05/
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 56 78 57 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 79 53 79 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 76 54 79 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 75 52 77 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 75 53 78 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 77 58 78 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 77 55 79 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 79 55 78 57 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 79 53 79 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 76 52 76 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 24/05

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