Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000 FXUS64 KFWD 032011 AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 311 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 .DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR LOOP TODAY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH UTAH AND INTO WYOMING. FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW WILL BRING THIS ACTIVITY EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THIS CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES NORTH TEXAS DUE TO VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE CRITICAL 700MB TO 900MB LAYER. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SATURATED ABOVE 700MB WITH SOME MEAGER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. THIS MEANS A FEW ELEVATED WEAK SHOWERS COULD SUSTAIN THEMSELVES LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE NORTHWEST ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE CONVECTION AND THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE AND HAVE KEPT POPS AT 10 PERCENT...EVEN THOUGH THE RADAR SHOULD HAVE A MORE PROMISING PRESENTATION. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL US DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE RED RIVER COUNTIES AND THE NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE WE WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS. THE AIRMASS OVER NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ACTUALLY FEATURE QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY AND VERY LITTLE TO NO CIN IN MANY AREAS. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE REGION ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH...IT IS CERTAINLY A PATTERN THAT CAN RESULT IN UNFORECASTED CONVECTION. HAVE SHOWN 10 POPS DOWN TO I-20 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS STRAY POP-UP CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AIRMASS. IF THERE IS BETTER FORCING FARTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS SUGGEST...IT WILL RESULT IN MUCH HIGHER COVERAGE. ASIDE FROM THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON POTENTIAL THERE IS ANOTHER VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES LATE FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHEAST AND STALLS ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. RIGHT NOW...JUST THE GFS BRING THIS FRONT INTO THE CWA...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE WORDED FORECAST. OTHERWISE THE MAIN STORY THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE HEAT. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SPEND MOST OF THIS WEEK TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA...BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF TURNING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL DRAG A BLOB OF VERY WARM AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE FROM WEST TEXAS INTO OUR AREA. SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR 100 FOR MOST NORTH TEXAS LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH DOES NOT BUILD IN OVER OUR AREA UNTIL THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK LOOK LIKE THEY WILL RANGE FROM 99 TO 104 ACROSS THE CWA. FURTHERMORE...THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOURCES SUGGEST THAT AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN WHAT WE SAW DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE 103 TO 109 RANGE...AND NECESSITATE HEAT ADVISORIES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA BEGINNING PERHAPS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. IT IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES NOW...BUT WE WILL BE LOOKING AT THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TR.92 && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 1238 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/ NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY FEW TO SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND A SOUTH WIND LESS THAN 12 KNOTS. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 79 99 80 100 80 / 5 5 5 10 5 WACO, TX 76 100 78 100 78 / 0 0 0 5 0 PARIS, TX 74 97 76 99 76 / 0 10 5 20 20 DENTON, TX 75 98 78 100 77 / 5 10 5 10 10 MCKINNEY, TX 75 97 78 99 79 / 5 10 5 10 10 DALLAS, TX 80 100 81 101 81 / 5 5 5 10 5 TERRELL, TX 75 99 77 99 77 / 0 5 5 10 10 CORSICANA, TX 76 100 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 5 5 TEMPLE, TX 74 100 75 100 75 / 0 0 0 5 0 MINERAL WELLS, TX 74 97 76 99 76 / 10 10 5 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$

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