Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000 FXUS64 KFWD 172350 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 550 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018 .AVIATION...
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VFR conditions will prevail. Light and variable winds will become more southerly overnight as surface high pressure shifts eastward. South winds 10 kts or less will prevail through the remainder of the TAF period. -Stalley
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&& .SHORT TERM...
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/Issued 329 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018/ /Through Tonight/ The center of a 1041mb surface high associated with our cold arctic air is located just to the northeast of the region. As a result, winds have generally been light and variable under sunny skies. This has resulted in a nice rebound in temperatures with several locations now at or above freezing after a very cold start to the day. Visible satellite imagery shows an extensive area of cloud cover across south and southwest Texas but most of this should remain out of our area during the overnight hours. Light southerly winds around 5 mph overnight should be sufficient to disrupt optimal radiational cooling, but it will nonetheless be quite cold again. We`ll see temperatures in the teens and low 20s across most of North and Central Texas. Any spots that do go completely calm could see temperatures drop to 11-15 degrees. Dunn
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&& .LONG TERM...
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/Issued 329 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018/ /Thursday through Wednesday/ The upper level pattern will transition into a more progressive regime with long wave troughs moving into the country from the Pacific. The gates to the arctic will close off and the arctic high pressure cell will gradually dissipate over the Deep South by the end of the week. All of this spells a different (and warmer!) weather pattern that will take hold by this weekend. In the meantime it will take a few days for the cold airmass to moderate. Another chilly day is in store for Thursday, but with light winds and full sunshine, the highs near 50 in the west and the low 40s in the east will not feel too bad. Lows Thursday night will dip into the 20s and 30s again before the southerly winds bring moisture and clouds into the region Friday. The clouds will be most prevalent across the southeastern zones initially, but should spread north into the eastern half of the region by Friday night. Some drizzle or very light rain will be possible with this moisture surge Friday night into Saturday over the east. High temperatures Friday are tricky and will likely be held down in the low to mid 40s in the cloudy areas, but may reach the lower 60s in the sunny northwestern zones. The moderation trend will continue into Saturday with highs in the lower 70s in the western zones with low to mid 60s in the east where it will stay cloudy, cool, and a little damp. Temperatures will have trouble falling both Friday night and Saturday night as southerly winds, warm advection, and cloud cover prevail along and east of I-35. A cold front, Pacific in origin, will move through the region on Sunday with a strong dynamic upper trough. This trough will result in strong forcing for ascent and a rapidly eroding cap and favorable modification of the atmosphere for convection. Surface based CAPE is likely to increase to a few hundred J/KG over the eastern half of the region within a strongly sheared environment. While the parameter space might suggest a low risk of severe storms in the eastern and southeastern zones, this pattern typically results in the severe weather being to our east due to the fast movement of a slow to organize line. Nonetheless, a band of showers and a few storms are likely along the front as it plows into the better moisture east of I-35 where the highest PoPs will be placed. Behind the front, just slightly cooler and drier weather is expected to prevail Monday into the middle of next week. Temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s for highs with lows in the 30s. TR.92
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 21 48 30 53 47 / 0 0 0 0 20 Waco 15 44 27 49 46 / 0 0 0 10 20 Paris 16 43 25 49 41 / 0 0 0 0 20 Denton 12 46 26 55 46 / 0 0 0 0 10 McKinney 14 45 27 52 43 / 0 0 0 0 20 Dallas 20 47 31 53 47 / 0 0 0 0 20 Terrell 15 44 26 49 45 / 0 0 0 5 20 Corsicana 19 44 28 47 45 / 0 0 0 5 30 Temple 18 43 28 48 46 / 0 0 0 10 20 Mineral Wells 15 49 27 59 43 / 0 0 0 0 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 26/14

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