Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000 FXUS64 KFWD 281750 AAB AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1150 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015 .AVIATION... CONCERNS...TIMING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS...DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AND CONTINUATION OF IFR CONDITIONS. METROPLEX TERMINALS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE -FZDZ THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THEN WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE REST OF THE TAF FORECAST. COLD SURFACE AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE METROPLEX TERMINALS THROUGH THIS FORECAST WHILE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ABOVE 3000 FEET PRODUCES WARM AIR ADVECTION AND OVERRUNNING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. THE NET RESULT IS LOW LEVEL SATURATION WITH IFR CIGS AROUND 700 FEET THIS AFTERNOON FALLING INTO THE 200-400 FEET RANGE OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...AND IFR TO MVFR VIS THIS AFTERNOON AND GENERALLY 2-3SM OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR VIS TO FALL TO 1SM OR LESS OVERNIGHT IF THE LIGHT DRIZZLE BECOMES HEAVY. ALSO...EXPECT THE OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION TO VARY OFF AND ON WITH A LULL AROUND DAYBREAK OR DURING THE MORNING HOURS. KACT WILL HAVE SIMILAR CONDITIONS BUT SHOULD REACH 32 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION MAY END SOONER AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON. ALL SHOULD HAVE NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST. KDFW EXTENDED...IFR CIGS/VIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR VIS DEVELOPING NEAR 02/00Z (SUNDAY EVENING). IFR CIGS MAY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL TUESDAY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AND ON/OFF ON MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LIFR FOG. 75 && .UPDATE... THE STEADY INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST HAS ALLOWED US TO REMOVE A FEW MORE COUNTIES FROM THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. FOR THIS UPDATE WE WILL REMOVE HENDERSON... NAVARRO...LIMESTONE AND FALLS. KAUFMAN AND VAN ZANDT WILL MOST LIKELY BE REMOVED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO SINCE TEMPS ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING CURRENTLY. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME. 79 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/ EARLY MORNING RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A PERSISTENT AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...WHICH CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY NORTH. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN TRANSITIONING FROM LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION CAN BE SEEN CREEPING NORTH...SO LULLS IN WINTRY PRECIP WILL LIKELY REMAIN SHORT-LIVED. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-MOST COUNTIES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...SO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH NOON. SOUTHERN COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON...SO THE ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF NORTH TEXAS AT NOON TODAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH 6 PM. THE SHORTWAVE THAT GENERATED OUR IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL YESTERDAY HAS RACED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THE OVERRUNNING PATTERN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONTINUING WINTER WEATHER HAS NOW DEVELOPED IN ITS WAKE. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WHICH ITSELF WILL GENERATE PERSISTENT MOIST RETURN FLOW ON TOP OF OUR COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE A GRADUAL SOUTH-TO-NORTH TRANSITION TO ALL LIQUID TODAY AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG TODAY BUT SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ALL PRECIP TO FALL IN LIQUID FORM THIS EVENING AS TEMPS CLIMB AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN-MOST COUNTIES WHICH RECEIVED THE MOST SNOWFALL. THIS AREA MAY HAVE SOME LINGERING LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WE WILL ASSESS TRENDS LATER TODAY...AND POSSIBLY EXTEND THE ADVISORY PAST 6 PM ACROSS PART OF THE REGION IF TEMPERATURES WARRANT IT. AT THIS TIME...THE 6 PM EXPIRATION TIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...CLOUDY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH...AND MAKE ITS WAY EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ONE DISTINCT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EJECT EASTWARD FROM THE VICINITY OF THE MAIN SYSTEM ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ADDED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY DUE TO LOW LEVEL WARM...MOIST AIR...WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES THE REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF NEAR FREEZING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE ALL OF THE PRECIP HAS EXITED THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF ROUND OF SLEET OR SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD OCCUR DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH HEADS FOR THE EAST COAST AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 34 34 47 39 50 / 60 40 40 50 40 WACO, TX 39 37 52 42 56 / 60 40 40 50 40 PARIS, TX 35 34 46 38 48 / 60 50 50 60 50 DENTON, TX 33 33 45 36 49 / 60 40 40 50 40 MCKINNEY, TX 34 34 46 38 49 / 60 50 40 50 40 DALLAS, TX 36 36 48 40 52 / 60 40 40 50 40 TERRELL, TX 38 36 49 41 52 / 60 50 40 60 50 CORSICANA, TX 40 38 51 44 56 / 50 40 40 60 50 TEMPLE, TX 41 39 54 44 60 / 50 40 40 50 40 MINERAL WELLS, TX 33 33 48 37 50 / 60 30 30 40 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>134-141>145. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ156>159. && $$ 75/

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