Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000 FXUS64 KFWD 252043 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 343 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017 .DISCUSSION...
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A warm and breezy day is in progress, but a few changes are on the way in the next 24 hours. A surface low continues to deepen across western Oklahoma with strong southerly flow being the result across much of Texas. A cold front is draped westward through the TX Panhandle with temperatures in the 50s just north of this boundary. In addition, a dryline is positioned roughly from Altus, OK to Abilene, TX. An upper trough continues to dig southward through NM which is causing additional surface cyclogenesis through western TX. This trough will continue to make southeastward progress through Wednesday, driving the cold front through the forecast area Wednesday morning while delivering a chance for thunderstorms. Highs today have climbed into the 80s and 90s area-wide, but widespread cirrus and lingering cumulus have acted to hold temperatures a few degrees under previously forecast highs. The dryline is slowly advecting eastward and will enter our western counties by this evening. This boundary will not be convectively active due to the strong cap and lack of supplemental forcing. Moisture continues to increase as a southerly flow regime advects ample Gulf moisture into North and Central TX. Surface winds will remain strong through the evening hours until the surface low approaches from the northwest; a Wind Advisory remains in effect until midnight. After midnight, widespread low stratus is expected to develop across most of the area as the surge of Gulf moisture continues. The cold front will begin initiating convection across central OK as it sinks southward and some of this activity may approach the Red River between midnight and 6am. Much stronger upper forcing, including a potent PV anomaly, will near the region between 6am and noon which will aid in the initiation of convection along the front by lifting the formidable cap. At this time, we`re monitoring a brief window for some strong to severe storms mostly across areas east of I-35 from about 10am-2pm when the lift will be capable of overcoming the cap immediately along the front as it encounters the highest moisture content. At this time, storms are expected to initiate near or just east of I-35 across North TX. The southward extent of convection a few hours later remains uncertain, but a broken line of storms could stretch as far south as Palestine by the time it exits our forecast area to the east by mid afternoon. At this time, instability and shear parameters imply a threat for storms to produce severe winds and/or hail, especially if they remain discrete along the front. The tornado threat is low, yet nonzero, but forecast hodographs are not terribly supportive of a tornado threat. Behind the front, a few wrap-around showers will be possible, mostly across areas near the Red River. As the cold front clears the area later Wednesday afternoon, much cooler air will filer into the region causing high temperatures to hold in the 60s and 70s for many locations, but our southernmost counties may creep into the 80s before the front arrives. A cool and tranquil Wednesday night will follow. Southerly flow will quickly return Thursday along with warmer temperatures as the front returns northward as a warm front. Another powerful upper trough will begin deepening across the western US on Friday. A new surface low will form across West TX on Friday and a frontal zone will become stalled near the Red River. A dryline will also develop and sharpen just west of the forecast area. The warm sector ahead of the dryline will be quite juicy, characterized by 70F dewpoints and temperatures in the 80s. These conditions will yield considerable instability, especially as a plume of steep lapse rates aloft is advected eastward above the warm sector. This would normally result in a stout capping inversion, but the cap on Friday is expected to be relatively weak due to strong large-scale ascent (and therefore adiabatic cooling) from the vigorous upper trough. As a result, there is the potential for 2 areas of convection on Friday afternoon/evening: one along the dryline across our western areas, and another near the stalled front across North TX and into southern OK. Storm development during this time will hinge on the degree of lift and ability to overcome the cap. Given the instability and shear, any storms that would be able to form during this time would likely become strong or severe. The thunderstorm threat will continue into Friday night and through all of Saturday as the upper trough continues pushing east and we remain situated within a very high-quality warm sector. A cold front will slowly move through the area during this time and numerous thunderstorms are expected across most of the forecast area. While it`s much too early to delve into the mesoscale details of the forecast, there will be a chance for strong or severe storms as well as isolated flash flooding across most of the forecast area throughout this time. The specific timing and threat locations will continue to change throughout the coming days as more information becomes available. Those with outdoor activities on Friday evening through Saturday are strongly encouraged to keep an eye on the forecast. This potent system should be exiting the area by around midday Sunday with cooler conditions following into early next week. A couple days of quieter weather are expected to prevail through the first half of next week before another storm system possibly affects the region around the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. -Stalley
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&& .AVIATION...
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/ISSUED 106 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/ The stratus currently across Central Texas will move just east of Waco before 19Z. VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early evening. However, a 45+ knot low level jet will continue to bring a surge of moisture northward into a low pressure system that will move across the Texas Panhandle tonight. MVFR ceilings will likely redevelop over Central Texas early in the evening and spread northward through the night. We expect MVFR ceilings to return to Waco around 03Z and the Metroplex TAF sites between 04Z and 05Z. Ceilings will likely remain above 1000 ft due to the strong LLJ. A cold front will move into North Texas overnight/Wednesday morning and should reach the Metroplex TAF sites between 15Z and 16Z and Waco an hour or two after that. Although some showers and storms will accompany the cold front, it appears that the best chances will be just east of the Metro Terminals where instability will be the most favorable. A strong and gusty south wind will prevail through the night at speeds between 15 and 20 knots along with some higher gusts. A wind shift to northwest will occur behind the cold front on Wednesday but wind speeds will remain in the same range through the afternoon. 79
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 72 50 82 66 / 20 30 5 0 5 Waco 71 79 49 83 67 / 20 20 0 0 5 Paris 68 69 45 77 60 / 30 70 10 0 10 Denton 66 67 46 78 63 / 20 20 10 0 5 McKinney 68 71 46 77 63 / 20 50 10 0 10 Dallas 71 73 51 83 67 / 20 30 10 0 5 Terrell 70 71 46 80 63 / 20 50 10 0 10 Corsicana 70 77 48 82 66 / 20 40 0 0 5 Temple 70 83 50 84 67 / 20 10 0 0 5 Mineral Wells 64 68 45 85 63 / 10 10 0 0 5
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&& .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ092>095-103>107- 118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175. && $$ 79/26

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