Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000 FXUS64 KFWD 301446 AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 946 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014 .UPDATE...
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NO UPDATES WERE NECESSARY TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE MOST FAVORED AREA FROM MCKINNEY SOUTHWESTWARD TO MINERAL WELLS AND INCLUDING MUCH OF THE METROPLEX. LEFT POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THIS EVENING THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND THE MOST FAVORED AREA WILL BE OVER THE WACO AND KILLEEN AREAS AND AREAS WEST TO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS COMANCHE. HAVE LEFT POPS OVER THESE AREAS AT 40 PERCENT. MUCH OF THIS AREA IS BEING HIGHLIGHTED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER AS HAVING A MARGINAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK AND WE ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE THINKING THAT A STORM OR TWO COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. TORNADOES ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOETH
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&& .AVIATION...
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/ISSUED 714 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/ /12Z TAFS/ CONCERNS...STORM POTENTIAL...WIND SHIFT. CLOUD COVER... OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DISCERNIBLE BY A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY. FLOW WITHIN A MILE OF THE SURFACE IS GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PREVENT THE MVFR STRATUS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY FROM REACHING WACO. HOWEVER... VEERING FLOW IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MEAN SOME VFR CEILINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...DURING THE HANDFUL OF HOURS PRECEDING FROPA. SKIES SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STORM POTENTIAL... MOISTURE RECOVERY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE METROPLEX. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISPARITY AMONG SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE...BUT WITH MOST SOLUTIONS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS...EVEN IF PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IS LOW. HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH...BUT AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. WIND SHIFT... SURFACE WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL BE PRIMARILY UNDER 10KTS. UNLESS CONVECTION IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST...THE EVENTUAL VEERING TO THE NORTH WILL BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. 25
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/ OUR FIRST WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AS A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST. A SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI BY MIDDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSS THE RED RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.15-1.3 INCHES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SIGNALING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS FROM THE DFW METRO SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. THE GFS AND HRRR ARE THE DRIEST SOLUTIONS AND KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ISOLATED...WHILE THE ECMWF/VARIOUS WRF MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED COVERAGE...WHILE THE SREF/NAM12 MODELS THE WETTEST. ALL THESE VARIABLE SOLUTIONS CREATED QUITE A QUANDARY FOR FORECASTING RAIN CHANCES LATER TODAY AND HOW MUCH TO RAMP THEM UP. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SEVERAL NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THE DECISION AGREED UPON WAS TO RAISE POPS...BUT STAY CONSERVATIVE AND LEAN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ECMWF/WRF PROJECTIONS. MOISTURE DOES INCREASE...BUT IS NOT OVERLY RICH WITH BEST VALUES ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE GENERAL FEELING WAS THAT THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TRAILING FROM THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OZARKS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT IN ADDITION TO THE SURFACE FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO RAISE AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35 INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. INSTABILITY BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT STRONG NORTHWEST BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 KTS MAY LEND TO A STRONG STORM OR TWO FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OF THE GENERAL VARIETY. COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE ORIGIN OF THIS NEXT AIRMASS IS OUT OF NORTH- CENTRAL CANADA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY CHILLY. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN DURING THE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY FOR TRICK OR TREATERS OR THOSE HEADING TO AREA HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL GAMES. NEVERTHELESS... TEMPERATURES BY NIGHTFALL WILL BE IN THE 50S AND WILL FALL READILY INTO THE MID- UPPER 40S BY LATE EVENING ACROSS MOST AREAS...SO BRINGING A LIGHT COAT OR JACKET IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FRIDAY EVENING. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE FROST ON THE PUMPKINS ACROSS RURAL AREAS NORTH OF I-20...AS LOW TEMPERATURES FALL WELL INTO THE 30S. ANY EXTENT OF FROST WILL REALLY DEPEND ON ANY NEAR- SURFACE MOISTURE THAT MAY BE PRESENT. MIGHT NOT BE A BAD IDEA TO PROTECT SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS AND VEGETATION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND MAKE SURE OUTDOOR PETS ARE PREPARED FOR THIS ROUND OF COLDER AIR. A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE OZARKS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING ONLY INTO THE 60S...DESPITE SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SETTLING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING BACK UP TO NEAR 70 DEGREES FOR HIGHS SUNDAY. THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE U.S. WEST COAST WILL BE OUR NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY. WE EXPECT MONDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE CAPPING INVERSION OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF STRATUS UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION. MODELS NOW HAVE THIS SYSTEM MORE OF AN OPEN AND DEEP WAVE THIS RUN VERSUS BEING CUT OFF ON RUNS 24 HOURS AGO. THOUGH MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW... WE DO EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO EJECT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AS MID LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS PICKED UP FROM AN OLD PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM. WE PLAN TO CARRY HIGH RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO WIDELY DIVERGE ON HOW THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT IS HANDLED. THE GFS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF CUTS IT OFF AND DROPS IT EVEN FURTHER SOUTH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE AREA WET INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...BUT THE GFS DRIES THINGS OUT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOWER POPS THAN GUIDANCE AND AWAIT LATER MODEL RUNS TO BETTER RESOLVE THINGS. 05/ && .SYNOPSIS... QUIET WEATHER WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WAS PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG UPPER SYSTEM WAS APPROACHING THE U.S. WEST COAST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 80 53 66 40 62 / 30 20 0 0 0 WACO, TX 79 53 70 40 64 / 5 30 0 0 0 PARIS, TX 73 46 63 34 59 / 10 10 0 0 0 DENTON, TX 78 48 65 36 61 / 30 10 0 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 76 50 65 34 61 / 30 10 0 0 0 DALLAS, TX 79 55 67 40 62 / 20 20 0 0 0 TERRELL, TX 77 52 67 38 62 / 10 20 0 0 0 CORSICANA, TX 77 54 69 40 62 / 5 20 0 0 0 TEMPLE, TX 78 54 71 41 64 / 5 40 0 0 0 MINERAL WELLS, TX 80 48 67 36 63 / 30 20 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ /

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