Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000 FXUS64 KFWD 210305 AAA AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1005 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015 .UPDATE... NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. AMPLE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SPREAD INTO NORTH TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN NEARLY OVERCAST SKIES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THIS MAY HELP KEEP TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SO HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A TAD. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST BUT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT DOES. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME ONGOING ELEVATED ACTIVITY THAT MOVES INTO NORTH TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE. TONED DOWN THE POPS A LITTLE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW TO 20-30 PERCENT BUT BETTER RAIN/STORM CHANCES ARRIVE MID TO LATE WEEK. DUNN && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 720 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/ FOR THE 00Z TAFS...ELEVATED RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN. A RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS WELL...HOWEVER ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN MAY RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 15Z TOMORROW. MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH THE ONSET OR PLACEMENT OF THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION TOMORROW...HOWEVER MOST MODELS SHOW SOME ELEVATED PRECIPITATION DEVELOP BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SHALLOW CAPE FOR AIR LIFTED FROM THE 850 MB LEVEL OR ABOUT 1 MILE AGL. CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ON TOP OF THE DFW AREA IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME...SO CHOSE TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION WITH A MENTION OF VCSH FROM 15 TO 22Z. MAY HAVE TO ADD A MENTION OF VCTS OR JUST A COUPLE OF HOURS OF PERSISTENT THUNDER IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP RIGHT ON TOP OF THE DFW AREA. ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR AIRPORTS TOMORROW...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CAVANAUGH && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/ AFTER A QUIET AND DRY PERIOD YESTERDAY THROUGH TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY IS MUDDLED AND CHALLENGING DUE TO DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS. PART OF THE ISSUE WITH THE MODELS AND THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS THAT THE DISTURBANCES AND/OR ATMOSPHERIC ELEMENTS THAT ARE KEY TO DIFFERENT FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE NOT BEING WELL SAMPLED OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN OR MEXICO. THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY IS MODERATE THAT WE WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE SEVERE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS IS LOW. NOW WE JUST HAVE TO ANSWER THE WHERE...WHEN...AND THREATS QUESTIONS. I THINK IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT THE FORECAST WILL HAVE DAILY CHANGES AND IT IS IMPORTANT THIS WEEK TO CHECK THE LATEST UPDATES EACH DAY. TONIGHT WILL BE A QUIET NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE ALREADY STARTING TO TURN TO THE SOUTH...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. THUNDERSTORMS MAY TREK ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND/OR NORTHWEST TEXAS LATE TONIGHT BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH NORTH TEXAS. ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HI RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THE LIFT FOR THESE STORMS COMES FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND THE 300K LEVEL. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL WITH THESE STORMS. ELSEWHERE...A SUITE OF OTHER MODELS INCLUDING THE 4KM WRF AND ECMWF INDICATE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL CARRY A 30-40 POP ACROSS THE AREA ALL DAY TOMORROW BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN EXACTLY WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL OCCUR. NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...VIRGA MAY BE OBSERVED WITH ANY ELEVATED ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING HOURS. ALSO ON TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE DRYLINE TO OUR WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE DRYLINE WILL BE TOO FAR WEST FOR THESE STORMS TO AFFECT OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT WILL LEAVE A 20 POP IN THE EVENING HOURS FOR THIS SLIGHT CHANCE. BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM ALONG A WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AND MAY TRACK INTO NORTH OR NORTHEAST TEXAS. AS ALSO MENTIONED IN THE SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK...STORM MODE IS UNCERTAIN FOR WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THIS BOUNDARY BUT THERE IS ALSO SUPPORT THAT AN MCS WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION...AT THE SURFACE...THE DRYLINE MAY BE CLOSER TO OUR WESTERN BORDER AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTH TEXAS WILL BE WARM AND VERY UNSTABLE /CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OVER 40 KTS/ AND ANY EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE DRYLINE AND POSSIBLY ELSEWHERE IF ANY OTHER BOUNDARIES ARE PRESENT. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER REFINE STORM EVOLUTION AS WE APPROACH WEDNESDAY BUT THE KEY MESSAGE AT THIS TIME IS A GOOD PART OF THE AREA COULD BE UNDER A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS ON THURSDAY WOULD LIKELY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES...AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND SHEAR VALUES ARE GREATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON THAN THEY ARE FORECAST TO BE FOR WEDNESDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO BE AWARE OF ANY BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER IN THE AREA FOR ADDITIONAL FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SWING INTO THE PLAINS FROM BAJA BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS BEFORE A FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE GFS. THE GFS HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE MORNING HOURS WHILE THE OTHER MODELS FOCUS MORE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO THE DISCREPANCIES WILL KEEP 50-60 POPS BUT EXTEND THE COVERAGE AREA AND TIMING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND EVOLUTION/MODE. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE ONCE AGAIN. WHILE IT IS TOO DIFFICULT TO DIVE INTO SPECIFIC DETAILS FOR STORM EVOLUTION...MODE...AND SEVERITY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME...IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND FLOODING. AT THIS TIME...A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK IS NOT EXPECTED ON ANY OF THESE DAYS. A FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA BEHIND THE STORMS ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN A PLEASANT WEEKEND FOR ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE GFS IS QUICK TO RETURN MOISTURE AND DEVELOP MORE STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS. THIS SEEMS TOO FAST FOR THE MOISTURE RETURN BUT WILL KEEP A 20 POP IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. JLDUNN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 52 75 63 76 66 / 0 20 10 40 40 WACO, TX 50 77 64 80 66 / 0 20 10 30 30 PARIS, TX 48 74 58 75 61 / 10 30 20 40 50 DENTON, TX 49 76 62 76 63 / 5 30 20 40 40 MCKINNEY, TX 48 74 62 75 63 / 5 20 20 40 40 DALLAS, TX 52 76 64 76 66 / 0 20 10 40 40 TERRELL, TX 49 75 63 75 64 / 0 20 10 40 40 CORSICANA, TX 50 76 63 77 67 / 0 30 10 30 30 TEMPLE, TX 52 78 65 79 67 / 5 20 10 30 20 MINERAL WELLS, TX 49 78 62 79 63 / 5 20 10 30 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$

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