Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000 FXUS64 KFWD 260431 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1131 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017 .AVIATION...
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The showers that have been west of the Metroplex TAF sites this evening continue to weaken as expected. Other than a few sprinkles, all North Central Texas TAF sites should remain dry overnight with broken to overcast middle and high clouds. We were expecting low clouds to begin to develop late this evening over the Texas Hill Country, however, a complex of storms moving out of the Rio Grande Valley is disrupting low cloud formation a bit. We are still anticipating low clouds to develop overnight, but the arrival at the North Central Texas airports should be delayed by a couple of hours Tuesday morning. The low level jet is also a bit weaker than the past couple of days (around 20 knots) which should also limit the low cloud formation. The low clouds which do move in Tuesday morning should scatter out by midday, however, mid level clouds will be on the increase as moisture is drawn up at the base of the deep trough across the western CONUS. South to southeast winds between 7 and 13 knots will slowly back to the east through the day Tuesday ahead of a cold front. Once the front arrives Tuesday afternoon, precipitation chances will increase across the Metroplex TAF sites. The wind should become northeasterly Tuesday evening as the front moves south. The only exception will be at Waco where the front should not move through until Wednesday morning. 79
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&& .SHORT TERM... /Issued 334 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017/ /Through tonight/ Water vapor satellite imagery continued to show a large trough over the western United States this afternoon. Lift associated with a northeastward moving shortwave out ahead of the main trough was bringing some showers into the western part of the forecast area as of mid afternoon. Showers and maybe a few thunderstorms are expected to continue to move north northeast and should remain mainly west of a Bowie to Lampasas line through tonight. A little activity may try to approach the I-35 corridor before daybreak Tuesday. Some patchy fog may develop across Central Texas late tonight, so have mentioned this from areas from Meridian to Palestine southward. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s and winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph. 58 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 334 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017/ /Tuesday through the Weekend/ After several days of remaining planted between an upper trough over the Western CONUS and a broad upper ridge to the east, North and Central Texas will finally experience a shift in the weather pattern mid to late week, leading to opportunities for precipitation and a return to temperatures more representative of this time of year. On Tuesday, the Western U.S. trough is progged to split into two shortwave pieces of energy. One of which will lift northeast across the Northern Plains, reaching the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. This should give a cold front enough of a southward push to cross the Red River Tuesday and trudge slowly south through the rest of forecast area Tuesday night and Wednesday. While the initial shortwave exits to the northeast, the second piece of energy will be in the form of an upper low, which will become cut-off from the main upper level flow near the Four- Corners Region. This upper low will provide lift for numerous showers and storms just west of the region over the next several days. By late Tuesday, there should be enough lift from the upper level low when combined with additional forcing from the surface front to generate scattered showers and a few storms over North and Central Texas. The best rain chances will be late Tuesday and Wednesday as the front pushes slowly south, with the highest coverage across the western-most counties where the strongest lift will reside. Severe weather should not be much of a concern due to the lack of any significant instability and shear, but there could be some locally heavy rain across the far western counties now through mid week. A Flood Watch does not appear necessary at this time due to rainfall deficits this month and lower overall qpf amounts compared to our neighbors to the west. The cut-off low will eventually lift northeastward into the Plains during days 5 through 7 in the forecast, which will bring an end to the rain chances late this workweek and into the upcoming weekend. Though an upper ridge will redevelop overhead in its wake, drier air behind the cold front should keep temperatures seasonal, with lows in the 50s and 60s and highs in the 80s as we bring an end to September. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 89 73 85 69 / 20 20 40 30 30 Waco 72 91 72 87 70 / 10 20 30 30 20 Paris 68 89 70 87 68 / 5 10 10 20 20 Denton 72 87 70 83 64 / 20 30 40 40 30 McKinney 71 88 71 85 66 / 10 20 30 30 30 Dallas 75 90 74 87 70 / 10 20 30 30 30 Terrell 71 91 71 89 70 / 5 10 20 20 20 Corsicana 71 90 71 88 71 / 5 10 10 20 20 Temple 71 88 71 85 70 / 20 30 40 30 20 Mineral Wells 70 85 68 79 63 / 50 40 70 50 40
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&& .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 79/25

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