Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000 FXUS64 KFWD 240013 AAB AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 713 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016 .UPDATE... A few locations in our southwest counties have reported light rain or drizzle with the reflectivity being detected on areas radars. The rain is being aided by a disturbance moving northeast across the same area and sufficient saturation down into the lower levels of the atmosphere is now allowing precipitation to reach the ground. Have updated the forecast to include a 20 percent chance for rain tonight south and west of an area from Comanche to Glen Rose to Waco to Cameron. Over the next few hours will evaluate if this area needs to be expanded farther north and east. For now, have left the mention of sprinkles everywhere overnight, but may be remove this mention with the next update depending on trends. JLDunn && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016/ 00 UTC TAF Cycle Concerns---Virga overnight into Monday morning. MVFR ceiling potential on Monday morning. For the DFW Metroplex TAF sites---Mid-level clouds will continue to develop across North TX as a shortwave lifts northward around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge parked across the SE U.S. While the mid and upper levels have moistened quite a bit, the low levels remain too parched for precipitation at the TAF sites. This trend should continue through the overnight hours. Virga, however, may result in some light to occasionally moderate turbulence below FL150. With regards to the MVFR ceiling potential, most hi-resolution model guidance suggests that the probability is low. In addition, the low level wind field appears to be too weak to support rapid transport of moisture this far north. As a result, I`ve removed the mention of MVFR ceilings at the Metroplex, but I`ll keep an eye on observational trends and the latest model guidance. Winds will generally remain southerly at around 10 to 15 knots through the entire 00 UTC TAF cycle. For the Waco TAF site---Mid and upper level cloudiness will persist through the entire 00 UTC TAF cycle. The lower levels of the atmosphere should result in rain-free conditions, though virga may result in some light to moderate turbulence in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. The potential for MVFR ceilings is a little higher at the Waco TAF site compared to the Metroplex. The best potential for MVFR cigs, however, will likely remain further west, near an KLZZ-KGOP line. For now, I will TEMPO MVFR ceilings around FL025 early Monday morning between 10 and 14 UTC. I will closely re-examine this potential at the 06 UTC TAF issuance. Outside of the brief window for MVFR cigs, VFR should prevail. 24-Bain && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016/ Quiet weather is on tap for the entire week. Currently, a shortwave disturbance in the southern jet stream was moving across Northeast Mexico and will continue lifting northeast across our neck of the woods late tonight into early Monday. This system will continue to be `moisture-starved`, sans high level moisture above 500mb currently. High resolution short term models do forecast saturation down through 700mb overnight/early Monday. The bulk of any light radar echoes are expected to be in the form of virga (rainfall that evaporates before making it to the ground) by sunrise Monday, however we cannot rule a rogue drop or two reaching the ground. I will add `isolated sprinkles` to the Monday morning forecast with no measurable rainfall expected. Otherwise, persistent south winds 10 to 15 mph will help Gulf moisture surge northward through Tuesday. With upper ridging building in early this week, the only change the next 48-60 hours will be an increase of humidity to go along with warm and breezy conditions with highs in the lower 80s. We are still expecting a system around mid week, or more precisely, later Wednesday into Thursday morning to move east- southeast across the Central U.S. However, models have continued to dampen the upper trough and stall the surface front from East- Central Oklahoma into the Ozarks/ArkLaTex. With forcing mechanisms both at the surface and aloft being held north of the area, we have gone ahead and removed low convective chances along the Red River Valley. This was our one hope for at least some low rain chances, but now that appears very doubtful. The mid week system moves east away from the area later on Thursday. In wake of the departing shortwave, upper ridging increases across the Southern Plains once again. Our rain chances will remain nil with breezy and warm conditions continuing through next weekend. High temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal with highs generally in the lower to middle 80s, with overnight lows varying from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Our next shot of rain will be likely in the 8-10 day range of the extended forecast. 05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 65 82 64 82 65 / 0 0 5 5 5 Waco 62 82 61 83 62 / 0 0 5 5 5 Paris 58 82 56 81 60 / 0 5 5 10 10 Denton 60 80 60 80 61 / 0 5 5 5 5 McKinney 61 80 60 80 61 / 0 0 5 10 5 Dallas 65 83 64 82 65 / 0 0 5 5 5 Terrell 61 80 60 82 62 / 0 0 5 5 5 Corsicana 63 82 61 82 62 / 0 0 5 5 5 Temple 61 83 61 82 61 / 0 0 5 5 5 Mineral Wells 60 82 60 81 60 / 0 5 5 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 24/82 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.