Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS64 KFWD 101619 AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1019 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016 .UPDATE... FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY DAY ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE GUSTING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE 18KT OR SO RANGE. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ALONG WITH THESE BREEZY WINDS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON MOSTLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 455 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/ VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES. WINDS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT WILL TAKE ON A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND MID DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH. 78 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/ DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNABATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THERE WILL BE SOME DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATION IN THE SURFACE PATTERN...HOWEVER...AND THIS WILL DELIVER SOME MODEST VARIABILITY IN OUR TEMPS AND DAYTIME WINDS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO EASTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A RIDGE PERSISTS IN THE GULF. THE RESULTANT GRADIENT WILL FOSTER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA BY MIDDAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS APPROACHING 20 MPH IN OUR NORTH AND WEST COUNTIES. COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND INCREASINGLY CURED FUELS...THESE CONDITIONS HAVE NECESSITATED A GRASS FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 TODAY. JUST A TAD BELOW RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT RESIDENTS IN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS REALLY NEED TO START BEING AWARE OF THE GROWING RISK OF GRASS FIRES ON MARGINALLY WINDY DAYS LIKE THIS...AS WE MOVE THROUGH THIS SURPRISINGLY DRY EL NINO WINTER. A WEAK (AND DRY) COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE RED RIVER EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WON`T BRING A MAJOR CHANGE IN AIRMASS BY FEBRUARY STANDARDS...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PULL AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE NORTH BACK INTO THE 60S...WITH MILD 70S CONTINUING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE SOUTH. A SECOND REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SECOND (RAINFREE) FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF ROLLING AFTERNOON HIGHS AREAWIDE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL EVOLVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS A MODEST SHORTWAVE (BY FEBRUARY STANDARDS ANYWAY) SWEEPS EASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN TEXAS SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THEIR DEPICTION OF MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE/H8 SURFACE LOW DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT POP UP IN OUR EASTERN AREAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE BETTER COMBINATION OF LIFT...MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING WILL WARRANT CONTINUED CHC POPS EAST OF A BOWIE TO KILLEEN LINE. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OUT OF OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS BY LATE MORNING MONDAY. THE SPEED AND LIMITED MOISTURE QUANTITY OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT A FEW SPOTS EAST OF I-35 MIGHT PICK UP A QUARTER INCH. ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE EXITS OUR REGION MONDAY...WE`LL RETURN TO A FAMILIAR DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME AND STICK WITH IT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THERE`S SOME VARIABILTY IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BY THE WEEKEND OF THE 20TH...BUT NOTHING AT THIS TIME THAT AUGERS WELL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. OUR UNSEASONABLY DRY PATTERN WILL THUS CONTINUE. 66/BRADSHAW && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 72 47 68 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 WACO, TX 74 45 75 42 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 PARIS, TX 65 41 65 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 DENTON, TX 73 43 66 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 69 43 66 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 DALLAS, TX 71 47 69 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 TERRELL, TX 67 45 69 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 CORSICANA, TX 70 47 73 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 TEMPLE, TX 73 47 76 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 MINERAL WELLS, TX 76 43 69 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.