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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KFWD 291135
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
635 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

.AVIATION...
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12 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---None. VFR with north/northeast winds.

VFR will prevail through the entire TAF cycle for all of North
and Central TX sites. Sustained north to northeast winds will be
breezy with speeds around 10 knots. With decent vertical mixing, a
few wind gusts to near 15-18 knots cannot be ruled out. The
building ridge will ensure that high clouds at FL250-300 will
continue to filter into North and Central TX terminals. Wind
speeds will likely subside after sunset with wind direction
becoming a bit more variable.

24-Bain
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&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... 
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/ISSUED 318 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016/
Though 3 to 4 hours slower than expected on previous forecast,
the cold front is now here and moving into Central Texas as noted
by area radar and observations. Meanwhile, a broad upper ridge has
developed over the Plains, while a detached upper low continues
sinking slowly south across the Ohio Valley and toward the
Tennessee Valley.

Mostly sunny skies will occur underneath the upper ridge today,
while modest cold advection occurs in the lowest 5000 feet. The
thermal advection will combine with mixing today for a breezy and
mild day with highs mostly in the 70s. North winds will diminish
as the boundary layer decouples after nightfall. With the dry air
in place, radiational cooling will allow for a crisp Friday morning
with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. The dry airmass in place
will allow for a rapid warm up underneath abundant sunshine on
Friday with high temperatures continuing in the 70s. A broad
surface high pressure ridge settles into the area late Friday
into early Saturday with lows starting out in the 50s Saturday
morning, before weak low level southerly flow and warm advection
allow for highs rebounding Saturday back to into the lower to mid
80s.

Next week will start off breezy and warm both Monday and Tuesday
with the return of low level warm advection and richer dew points.
The richest moisture is expected to be somewhat delayed by the
current cold front having scoured the continental shelf of the
immediate Texas Gulf Coast. Increasing southwest flow aloft will
also strengthen over the Plains and help enhance the elevated warm
mixed layer(or cap) overhead, as a longwave trough deepens over
the Western U.S and the previous upper low over the Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys departs northeast over New England/Eastern Canada. A lead
shortwave is forecast to lift out across the central High plains
late Tuesday, which will help move a surface dryline east toward
our far western counties. Best forcing should remain northwest of
the area, however, a brief/isolated late day thunderstorm can`t be
ruled out Tuesday afternoon if the cap can lift and weaken.

As the main longwave trough approaches Tuesday night through
Thursday, height falls will spread across the Southern Plains and
Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday. Strong warm advection and
theta-E advection is expected ahead of a strong Pacific cold front
during this time period. I expect scattered, elevated convection
will develop across Northwest Texas Tuesday night, then become
surface-based with the Pacific cold front moving through the CWA
Wednesday night and Thursday.

The Euro becomes much more progressive with the system as a whole
versus the GFS moving into late next week. I have generally taken
a blend on timing with the cold front and convective chances with
a preference toward the Euro given its proven track record beyond
5 days. After the Pacific cold front passes through early
Thursday, rain chances will shift east of the area. Cooler and
drier air will work its way into the area as mid level heights
slowly increase overhead. The second weekend of October should be
much like the first, dry and slightly below seasonal normals.

05/
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&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  56  78  57  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                79  53  79  55  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               76  54  79  54  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              75  52  77  53  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            75  53  78  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              77  58  78  59  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             77  55  79  55  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           79  55  78  57  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              79  53  79  55  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       76  52  76  53  79 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

24/05