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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KFWD 300447 AAD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1147 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS TRY TO KEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE
METROPLEX...THE HI-RES SOLUTIONS DO TRY TO MOVE SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE METROPLEX. WILL BE KEEPING VCSH ACROSS THE METROPLEX
DURING THE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THEN VCTS UNTIL
31/02Z. WILL KEEP KACT DRY...BUT ISOLATED VCSH ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 9-14 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. 75

&&

.UPDATE...
ISENTROPIC LIFT NOW OCCURRING BETWEEN 850-700 MB ACROSS NORTHWEST
TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF THE EXPECTED SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
IN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE NOT OVERLY
STEEP...BUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR NORTHWEST OF A
BRECKENRIDGE...DECATUR...SHERMAN LINE OVERNIGHT.

LITTLE RAINFALL IS ACTUALLY HITTING THE GROUND PER SURFACE OBS
ACROSS WESTERN OK/NORTHWEST TX...BUT EARLIER RAINFALL DID MOISTEN
LOW LEVELS BELOW 700MB EARLIER TODAY. EVEN SO...HAVE ONLY RAISED
TO 30-40% WITH MAINLY SHOWER WORDING WITH AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
STRIKES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT. DID SHIFT SLIGHT CHANCES AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS A CISCO...TO
DFW...TO BONHAM LINE. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
A FRONTAL LAYER REMAINS INTACT ABOVE NORTH TEXAS. ELEVATED
CONVECTION BEGAN ABOVE THIS FRONTAL SLOPE BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE
ACTIVITY EXPANDED ALONG AN AXIS OF 700MB FRONTOGENESIS FROM
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...TO THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...DOWN
THE I-45 CORRIDOR TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH RAIN AMOUNTS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT...RAIN-COOLED TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF
THIS CORRIDOR REACHED THE UPPER 80S...DESPITE CLOUD COVER. THIS
AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY SUNSET.
SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED IN CENTRAL TEXAS...
WHERE SUNSHINE WAS PLENTIFUL MUCH OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH INITIATED
BY FRONTAL DYNAMICS...THEIR MAINTENANCE IS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY
SURFACE HEATING...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE GONE BY MID-
EVENING.

WITH RIDGING ALOFT ERODED/DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH...THE WESTERLIES
ARE NOW IMPINGING ON NORTH TEXAS. A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW OVER COLORADO WILL APPROACH TONIGHT. AS THE TERRAIN FALLS
BENEATH IT...ONGOING LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE INDUCED AT THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...
RESULTING IN FRONTOLYSIS. HOWEVER...THIS PROCESS WILL MEAN
FRONTOGENESIS ON THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY. STILL THINK THE
BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE NOW SPIRALING OVER UTAH IS PULLED INTO THE PLAINS. THE
FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SHEARING AS ITS REMNANT ENERGY
FOLLOWS THE SAME TRACK AS THE WEDNESDAY IMPULSE. THIS TOO SHOULD
PRIMARILY AFFECT NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES...BUT ITS PASSAGE
SHOULD ALLOW THE NEW FRONT ON THE HIGH PLAINS TO SURGE THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES A CHANCE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY BEFORE THE UNSEASONAL RAINY
PERIOD COMES TO AN END.

SUNSHINE WILL RETURN FRIDAY...BUT COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. IN FACT...PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MEAN A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND. THE MILD AIR
WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK WHEN THE GULF FINALLY REOPENS.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  92  73  85  70 /  10  20  40  30  10
WACO, TX              74  97  74  89  70 /  10  10  20  30  20
PARIS, TX             69  81  68  78  66 /  10  40  80  50  10
DENTON, TX            73  89  71  83  67 /  20  20  50  40  10
MCKINNEY, TX          71  86  71  82  66 /  10  30  70  50  10
DALLAS, TX            76  92  74  85  71 /  10  20  40  30  10
TERRELL, TX           72  89  72  83  68 /  10  20  50  40  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  94  73  87  69 /  10  20  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            73  97  72  90  70 /  10  10  10  40  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  97  69  84  67 /  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/