Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000 FXUS64 KFWD 191759 AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1159 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014 .AVIATION... THE RAIN HAS COME TO AN END FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS DRY AIR BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE HAS ENCROACHED UPON THE AREA. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND BECAUSE OF THE COOL...MOIST AIR TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER...SO EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES. ONCE REACHED...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING FOR THE DFW TERMINALS AND SLOWLY LIFT TO AROUND FL025 BY MIDDAY. FOR KACT...IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL RETURN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. A LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBY IS ALSO LIKELY FOR THE DFW TAF SITES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED THERE AT THIS TIME. WHILE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY VEER. BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEASTERLY...REQUIRING A CHANGE FROM NORTH FLOW TO SOUTH FLOW FOR THE DFW METRO TAF SITES. THIS DIRECTIONAL CHANGE WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON FOR KACT. HOWEVER...BECAUSE SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ONCE THEY DECREASE THIS EVENING...A FLOW CHANGE COULD BE CONSIDERED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AJS && .UPDATE... UPDATING THIS MORNING TO REMOVE POPS WEST OF I-35 AND TO SCALE POPS BACK AND REMOVE THUNDER ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD AS THE UPPER TROF TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS TX. COULD STILL BE A FEW SPRINKLES AS THE TROF MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO ACCUMULATE. MODELS SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON BUT STRONG INVERSION AROUND 900MB WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED SO CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO CHANGED MADE. WILEY && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/ PRECIPITATION SHIELD FILLING IN OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS I TYPE THIS. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OCCURRING AS FAR NORTH AS ERATH COUNTY AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE ISOLD THUNDER NORTH TO COMPENSATE. THE UPPER LOW IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR AND IS MOVING EAST AT 30-40 KT AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE MODELS PROG THE PRECIP TO MOVE EAST AT THE SAME RATE...AND ALL THE RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. WHILE OVERALL QPF WILL BE LOW...THE GROUND HAS BEEN KEPT MOIST BY ALL THE FOG/DRIZZLE AND HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME MODEST RUNOFF FOR THE LAKES. WITH THE PRECIP MOVING EAST AND SOME SUBSIDENCE TO THIN THE CLOUDS...I FORECAST HIGHS RUNNING FROM UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW-MID 50S SOUTH. IF CLOUDS LINGER ALL AFTERNOON...I WILL BE TOO WARM. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RE-FORM OVERNIGHT AND KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. IN ADVANCE OF THE TUESDAY COLD FRONT HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE 60S ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY...BUT A NORTHWEST WIND ON TUESDAY WILL MAKE THE 50S/60S HIGHS SEEM COOLER. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EAST. THE NEXT LEE TROUGH FORMS BY THURSDAY AND WITH SOUTH WINDS IN THE TEENS HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 60S NORTH/LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF DAMPING THAT FRONT OUT TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS HAS WEAKENED THE COLD FRONT...BUT STILL BRINGS IT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AND WILL WATCH THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THE FRONT BECOMES A NON FACTOR. 84 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 51 42 52 41 55 / 50 5 5 5 10 WACO, TX 52 42 53 40 56 / 70 5 5 5 10 PARIS, TX 47 39 49 38 52 / 50 10 5 5 10 DENTON, TX 50 39 51 39 54 / 30 5 5 5 10 MCKINNEY, TX 50 39 50 38 53 / 60 10 5 5 10 DALLAS, TX 51 43 52 42 55 / 60 5 5 5 10 TERRELL, TX 51 42 51 40 54 / 60 10 5 5 10 CORSICANA, TX 52 43 54 41 55 / 70 10 5 5 10 TEMPLE, TX 53 43 54 41 56 / 70 5 5 5 10 MINERAL WELLS, TX 50 39 51 38 55 / 20 5 5 5 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ /

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