Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000 FXUS64 KFWD 160439 AAD AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1139 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014 .AVIATION... WILL BE REMOVING VCSH FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES FOR TONIGHT WHILE CONTINUING VCSH AT KACT THROUGH 09Z. UNLIKE THAT SHRA WILL LOWER OR PRODUCE ANY CIGS REDUCTION TONIGHT. KACT STILL ON TAP TO SEE A FEW HOURS OF BKN035 ON TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS BKN-OVC AT 10000+ FEET AND LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 75 && .UPDATE... SHOWERS ARE ON THE WANE...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS INSUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 20 PERCENT AND REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER. OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE MORE TROUBLE COOLING THAN LAST NIGHT AND HAVE RAISED LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. TR.9S && .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS CONTINUALLY INVADED BY MOISTURE/ENERGY FROM ODILE. EVEN WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR-NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE FIRST SLUG OF MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE HAS AIDED IN THE PROLIFERATION OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. WITH MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THESE ELEVATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN INEFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND LARGELY DEVOID OF THUNDER. ALTHOUGH BENIGN...THIS ACTIVITY HAS HELPED TO ERODE THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH ALOFT. THE HIGH WILL ATTEMPT TO REGAIN CONTROL ON TUESDAY...BUT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR ODILE WILL DISRUPT THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID-LEVELS. A BACKDOOR FRONT COULD PROVIDE THE SURFACE FOCUS NECESSARY TO REALIZE THE INSTABILITY IN A PROGRESSIVELY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER. ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS MAY SEAMLESSLY TRANSITION INTO AFTERNOON SURFACE- BASED SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER SEALED. REGARDLESS...WITH WEAKENING WINDS IN THE LOWEST 20KFT...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY. BUT WITH STEADILY INCREASING PW VALUES...POTENTIALLY TOPPING 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY... ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW-MOVING CELLS. MITIGATING FACTORS WILL BE THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED FOCUS FOR INITIATION LIMITING OVERALL COVERAGE AND THE WEAK SHEAR SHORTENING THE LIFESPAN OF INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EJECTION OF A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ON WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...A WEAKNESS MAY LINGER IN THE MID-LEVELS ON THURSDAY...MAINTAINING RAIN CHANCES UNTIL PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 25 && .LONG TERM... FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE ECMWF...GFS...AND CMC DEPICTING A BROAD TROUGH TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DEEP TROUGHING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS BY SUNDAY. WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME CAN BE PINNED DOWN. STALLEY 25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 74 87 74 89 75 / 20 40 20 20 30 WACO, TX 73 87 73 88 73 / 20 40 30 30 40 PARIS, TX 69 84 69 86 69 / 20 30 20 20 20 DENTON, TX 71 87 71 88 71 / 20 40 20 20 20 MCKINNEY, TX 70 85 70 86 70 / 20 40 20 20 20 DALLAS, TX 75 86 74 88 74 / 20 40 20 20 30 TERRELL, TX 73 86 71 87 72 / 20 40 20 20 30 CORSICANA, TX 72 87 72 88 72 / 20 40 20 30 30 TEMPLE, TX 71 87 72 87 72 / 20 40 30 40 40 MINERAL WELLS, TX 70 85 70 87 71 / 20 40 20 20 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 75/

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