Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000 FXUS64 KFWD 300447 AAD AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1147 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .AVIATION... ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS TRY TO KEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE METROPLEX...THE HI-RES SOLUTIONS DO TRY TO MOVE SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE METROPLEX. WILL BE KEEPING VCSH ACROSS THE METROPLEX DURING THE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THEN VCTS UNTIL 31/02Z. WILL KEEP KACT DRY...BUT ISOLATED VCSH ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AT 9-14 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. 75 && .UPDATE... ISENTROPIC LIFT NOW OCCURRING BETWEEN 850-700 MB ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF THE EXPECTED SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE NOT OVERLY STEEP...BUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR NORTHWEST OF A BRECKENRIDGE...DECATUR...SHERMAN LINE OVERNIGHT. LITTLE RAINFALL IS ACTUALLY HITTING THE GROUND PER SURFACE OBS ACROSS WESTERN OK/NORTHWEST TX...BUT EARLIER RAINFALL DID MOISTEN LOW LEVELS BELOW 700MB EARLIER TODAY. EVEN SO...HAVE ONLY RAISED TO 30-40% WITH MAINLY SHOWER WORDING WITH AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. DID SHIFT SLIGHT CHANCES AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS A CISCO...TO DFW...TO BONHAM LINE. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES. 05/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/ A FRONTAL LAYER REMAINS INTACT ABOVE NORTH TEXAS. ELEVATED CONVECTION BEGAN ABOVE THIS FRONTAL SLOPE BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE ACTIVITY EXPANDED ALONG AN AXIS OF 700MB FRONTOGENESIS FROM NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...TO THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...DOWN THE I-45 CORRIDOR TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH RAIN AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY LIGHT...RAIN-COOLED TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS CORRIDOR REACHED THE UPPER 80S...DESPITE CLOUD COVER. THIS AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY SUNSET. SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED IN CENTRAL TEXAS... WHERE SUNSHINE WAS PLENTIFUL MUCH OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH INITIATED BY FRONTAL DYNAMICS...THEIR MAINTENANCE IS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY SURFACE HEATING...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE GONE BY MID- EVENING. WITH RIDGING ALOFT ERODED/DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH...THE WESTERLIES ARE NOW IMPINGING ON NORTH TEXAS. A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW OVER COLORADO WILL APPROACH TONIGHT. AS THE TERRAIN FALLS BENEATH IT...ONGOING LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE INDUCED AT THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS... RESULTING IN FRONTOLYSIS. HOWEVER...THIS PROCESS WILL MEAN FRONTOGENESIS ON THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY. STILL THINK THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE NOW SPIRALING OVER UTAH IS PULLED INTO THE PLAINS. THE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SHEARING AS ITS REMNANT ENERGY FOLLOWS THE SAME TRACK AS THE WEDNESDAY IMPULSE. THIS TOO SHOULD PRIMARILY AFFECT NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES...BUT ITS PASSAGE SHOULD ALLOW THE NEW FRONT ON THE HIGH PLAINS TO SURGE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY BEFORE THE UNSEASONAL RAINY PERIOD COMES TO AN END. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN FRIDAY...BUT COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. IN FACT...PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MEAN A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND. THE MILD AIR WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK WHEN THE GULF FINALLY REOPENS. 25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 75 92 73 85 70 / 10 20 40 30 10 WACO, TX 74 97 74 89 70 / 10 10 20 30 20 PARIS, TX 69 81 68 78 66 / 10 40 80 50 10 DENTON, TX 73 89 71 83 67 / 20 20 50 40 10 MCKINNEY, TX 71 86 71 82 66 / 10 30 70 50 10 DALLAS, TX 76 92 74 85 71 / 10 20 40 30 10 TERRELL, TX 72 89 72 83 68 / 10 20 50 40 10 CORSICANA, TX 73 94 73 87 69 / 10 20 20 30 20 TEMPLE, TX 73 97 72 90 70 / 10 10 10 40 20 MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 97 69 84 67 / 20 20 20 20 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 75/

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