Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000 FXUS64 KFWD 270839 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 339 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017 .SHORT TERM... /Today and Tonight.../ Regional surface analysis early this morning places a cold front across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and on into southeastern Kansas, where temperatures have fallen into the middle and upper 70s. Ahead of this front, showers and occasional storms are ongoing over northern portions of Oklahoma within a zone of enhanced isentropic ascent (courtesy of a 30-35 kt low-level jet) centered around the 310 K theta surface. With any warm advection of note forecast to remain well north of the Red River this morning, the only effects we should see will be from some additional high-level cloud cover this morning and afternoon. The combination of 23-24 C air at 850 mb and an increasing southwesterly component to the flow could support high temperatures as high as 103 or 104 today based on a local study, but I`ve tempered these just a bit given the expectation of additional cirrus being blown off of convection to our northeast later today. Somewhat drier air should mix its way down to the surface this afternoon, resulting in dewpoints running a hair lower than we`ve seen lately. Still, the combination of triple digit temperatures and upper 60s/near 70 dewpoints will result in heat index values in the 105-110 degree range across the eastern 2/3rds of the CWA today, where a Heat Advisory remains in effect. Late this afternoon and evening, we`ll need to keep an eye on convective trends across Oklahoma. At this time, it appears any activity should remain confined to north of the Red River through the evening hours. Overnight, however, strong isentropic upglide will get going at the nose of a strengthening low-level jet, and this may be sufficient to spark off some showers and isolated storms across our northern-most tier of counties. Carlaw && .LONG TERM... /Friday through Wednesday/ A cold front is expected to be along or just north of the Red River at daybreak Friday. This front is expected to slowly move south during the day and extend south of the I-20 corridor before sunset. With the better lift remaining to our north, most of the showers and thunderstorms will be across Oklahoma, with low chances across that part of North Texas north of Graham to Emory line. There is a question of how much cloud cover we will get from the thunderstorms to our north which makes the temperature forecast tricky. Highs should range from the mid 90s along the Red River to 103 degrees across Central Texas. This leads to the question of what to do with the Heat Advisory. With cooler temperatures across the northern part of the current Advisory area, will just extend the Heat Advisory through 8 PM Friday for areas along and southeast of a Killeen to Mineral Wells to Denton to Sulphur Springs line. This means that we are not extending the Heat Advisory beyond 8 PM today for Montague, Cooke, Grayson, Fannin, Lamar, Wise, and Delta Counties. The rest of the current Heat Advisory is being extended until 8 PM Friday where heat index values of 105 to 110 degrees are expected. The front should move through Central Texas Saturday morning. There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms area wide Saturday. Highs on Saturday will be "cooler" than we have seen during the last few days across most of the forecast area, with lower 90s northeast to around 100 degrees across parts of Central Texas. Heat Index values may reach 105 degrees across parts of Central Texas Saturday. Drier air will work its way in from the northeast late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. There will be low chances of showers and thunderstorms southwest of a Gainesville to Canton line. Saturday night and Sunday. With the upper level ridge remaining over the western United States and troughing to our east, we will be in northwesterly to northerly flow aloft for much of next week. This pattern will result in chances of showers and thunderstorms and slightly below seasonal normal temperatures. 58 && .AVIATION... /Issued 1133 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017/ No changes from previous TAF issuance with VFR conditions and south winds expected through Thursday night. While stratus is expected to develop in Central TX again tonight, low level flow should be too weak and veered by morning for these cigs to spread into the Waco TAF site. Diurnal cumulus will develop again Thursday afternoon with winds remaining southerly at 10-15 kts with an occasional gust up to 20 kts. Late Thursday night and Friday morning, some convection may be ongoing near the Red River, but don`t expect any issues at the TAF sites within the current valid TAF period. -Stalley && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 100 81 100 77 96 / 5 10 10 30 30 Waco 102 78 102 77 99 / 5 0 5 20 30 Paris 96 78 95 75 92 / 10 20 20 30 20 Denton 100 79 99 77 96 / 5 10 10 30 30 McKinney 98 79 98 76 94 / 10 10 10 30 30 Dallas 100 81 100 78 96 / 5 10 10 30 30 Terrell 99 77 99 76 95 / 5 10 10 30 30 Corsicana 98 77 100 77 96 / 5 5 10 20 30 Temple 101 76 103 77 100 / 5 0 5 10 20 Mineral Wells 101 76 100 76 97 / 5 10 10 30 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for TXZ103>105-107-117>123- 131>135-144>148-157>162-174-175. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-102-106. && $$ 90/58

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