Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000 FXUS64 KFWD 050000 AAA AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 600 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016 .AVIATION...
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/00Z TAFS/ Extensive low cloud cover again prevails across most of North and Central Texas this evening. Water vapor imagery shows the large upper low spinning over northern Mexico. This system is expected to move across North Texas during the day Monday. In the meantime...widespread MVFR cigs are expected to prevail through late evening. There is some drier air moving in aloft from the north and we`ve seen a gradual north to south erosion of the lower clouds over the last several hours...however most of the short term guidance suggests that the southward push of drier air will be short lived. Latest thinking is that it will not make it into the Metroplex so have kept MVFR cigs in through the late evening. Later tonight...widespread light rain is expected to fill in across most of the area. This will help cigs to continue lowering through the early morning hours. Expect IFR cigs by sunrise with reduced visibility in light rain. The light rain will continue into the early afternoon hours before a rapid west to east shift in precipitation brings things to an end. While the rain is expected to end and drier air aloft will move into the region...there will still be abundant moisture in the lowest 1000 feet of the atmosphere which will likely result in areas of fog/drizzle with IFR conditions continuing into Monday night. Dunn
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION...
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/ISSUED 350 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016/ North and Central Texas have experienced a break from the rain and drizzle that plagued the region yesterday, but another round of rain is expected tonight through Monday evening as an upper level low moves across the region. The upper level low is currently located just east of southern Baja California. It will start moving northeast tonight and cross North and Central Texas tomorrow afternoon and evening. Large scale lift ahead of the upper low will result in another round of widespread showers with isolated thunderstorms on Monday. Rain is already expanding in coverage from the Hill Country back into northern Mexico. As this rain approaches our Central Texas counties this afternoon, it is working against some cold air advection that is dissipating most of the rain activity. However, isentropic lift is expected to increase across our southern counties tonight, and we expect to see some rain spreading south to north overnight tonight. The rain may move into our far southwest or southern counties this evening, and will carry the highest PoPs south of Interstate 20 after midnight tonight. The rain will continue to expand in coverage on Monday, and then gradually end from west to east Monday afternoon and evening. The best chances for rain will be across the southeastern half of the CWA. We anticipate just about everyone will receive rainfall but it is possible locations in our far northwest could miss out on this last round of rain. Rainfall totals will vary from less than a 1/4 inch in the northwest to near 3/4 of an inch in the southeast. With more convective activity expected with the added lift from the upper level low, pockets of heavier rainfall can be expected within thunderstorms, but widespread or significant flooding is not expected. Very localized nuisance flooding may occur where some of the heaviest rains occur, but antecedent soil conditions are likely to handle the rainfall without much problem. As the upper level low moves northeast of the region on Tuesday, a weak front will drop into the region. This front will bring drier air to the region but warm air advection will bring some limited moisture back to the region Tuesday night and Wednesday in advance of our strong cold front. We may see a few showers in our eastern counties Wednesday and Wednesday night ahead of the front, but forecast soundings indicate a strong cap will likely suppress any attempts at rain. Instead, we may see some drizzle in our eastern counties if the isentropic lift is decent enough. The front will come blasting through Wednesday evening and night with strong north winds of 15-20 mph. These strong winds will continue into Thursday morning. Temperatures will drop quickly and most of the region will fall into the mid 20s to mid 30s Thursday morning. However, with the wind, it will feel like the teens and lower 20s. On Thursday, temperatures will only recover into the mid 30s to lower 40s. With the wind, it will feel like a bitter cold day by Texas standards. A surface high will slide into the region Thursday afternoon and night, decreasing the wind speeds. With clear skies and light winds, temperatures will plummet Thursday night and Friday morning into the 20s, with wind chill readings in the teens and lower 20s. Temperatures will still be winter-like on Friday but a warming trend will begin Friday night. At that time south winds will return to the region as the surface high slides east and a weak low pressure system develops in the Plains. Another front now looks like it will arrive early next week instead of next weekend. JLDunn
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 46 50 43 56 43 / 50 90 30 10 5 Waco 47 51 43 60 43 / 80 100 10 5 5 Paris 43 48 44 55 43 / 30 100 60 10 5 Denton 45 51 42 55 41 / 40 90 30 10 5 McKinney 45 50 43 55 42 / 40 90 40 10 5 Dallas 46 50 44 57 44 / 50 100 30 10 5 Terrell 46 50 43 58 44 / 50 100 40 10 5 Corsicana 49 50 44 59 45 / 80 100 20 5 5 Temple 47 51 45 62 44 / 100 100 10 5 5 Mineral Wells 45 50 41 55 41 / 40 90 20 10 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

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