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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KFWD 260431
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1131 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017


.AVIATION...
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The showers that have been west of the Metroplex TAF sites this
evening continue to weaken as expected. Other than a few
sprinkles, all North Central Texas TAF sites should remain dry
overnight with broken to overcast middle and high clouds.

We were expecting low clouds to begin to develop late this evening
over the Texas Hill Country, however, a complex of storms moving
out of the Rio Grande Valley is disrupting low cloud formation a
bit. We are still anticipating low clouds to develop overnight,
but the arrival at the North Central Texas airports should be
delayed by a couple of hours Tuesday morning. The low level jet is
also a bit weaker than the past couple of days (around 20 knots)
which should also limit the low cloud formation. The low clouds
which do move in Tuesday morning should scatter out by midday,
however, mid level clouds will be on the increase as moisture is
drawn up at the base of the deep trough across the western CONUS.

South to southeast winds between 7 and 13 knots will slowly back
to the east through the day Tuesday ahead of a cold front. Once the
front arrives Tuesday afternoon, precipitation chances will
increase across the Metroplex TAF sites. The wind should become
northeasterly Tuesday evening as the front moves south. The only
exception will be at Waco where the front should not move through
until Wednesday morning.

79
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&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 334 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017/
/Through tonight/
Water vapor satellite imagery continued to show a large trough
over the western United States this afternoon. Lift associated
with a northeastward moving shortwave out ahead of the main trough
was bringing some showers into the western part of the forecast
area as of mid afternoon. Showers and maybe a few thunderstorms
are expected to continue to move north northeast and should remain
mainly west of a Bowie to Lampasas line through tonight. A little
activity may try to approach the I-35 corridor before daybreak
Tuesday. Some patchy fog may develop across Central Texas late
tonight, so have mentioned this from areas from Meridian to
Palestine southward. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to mid
70s and winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph.

58

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 334 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017/
/Tuesday through the Weekend/
After several days of remaining planted between an upper trough
over the Western CONUS and a broad upper ridge to the east, North
and Central Texas will finally experience a shift in the weather
pattern mid to late week, leading to opportunities for
precipitation and a return to temperatures more representative of
this time of year.

On Tuesday, the Western U.S. trough is progged to split into two
shortwave pieces of energy. One of which will lift northeast
across the Northern Plains, reaching the Upper Midwest on
Wednesday. This should give a cold front enough of a southward
push to cross the Red River Tuesday and trudge slowly south
through the rest of forecast area Tuesday night and Wednesday.

While the initial shortwave exits to the northeast, the second
piece of energy will be in the form of an upper low, which will
become cut-off from the main upper level flow near the Four-
Corners Region. This upper low will provide lift for numerous
showers and storms just west of the region over the next several
days. By late Tuesday, there should be enough lift from the upper
level low when combined with additional forcing from the surface
front to generate scattered showers and a few storms over North
and Central Texas. The best rain chances will be late Tuesday and
Wednesday as the front pushes slowly south, with the highest
coverage across the western-most counties where the strongest lift
will reside.

Severe weather should not be much of a concern due to the lack of
any significant instability and shear, but there could be some
locally heavy rain across the far western counties now through mid
week. A Flood Watch does not appear necessary at this time due to
rainfall deficits this month and lower overall qpf amounts
compared to our neighbors to the west.

The cut-off low will eventually lift northeastward into the Plains
during days 5 through 7 in the forecast, which will bring an end
to the rain chances late this workweek and into the upcoming
weekend. Though an upper ridge will redevelop overhead in its
wake, drier air behind the cold front should keep temperatures
seasonal, with lows in the 50s and 60s and highs in the 80s as we
bring an end to September.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  89  73  85  69 /  20  20  40  30  30
Waco                72  91  72  87  70 /  10  20  30  30  20
Paris               68  89  70  87  68 /   5  10  10  20  20
Denton              72  87  70  83  64 /  20  30  40  40  30
McKinney            71  88  71  85  66 /  10  20  30  30  30
Dallas              75  90  74  87  70 /  10  20  30  30  30
Terrell             71  91  71  89  70 /   5  10  20  20  20
Corsicana           71  90  71  88  71 /   5  10  10  20  20
Temple              71  88  71  85  70 /  20  30  40  30  20
Mineral Wells       70  85  68  79  63 /  50  40  70  50  40
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&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

79/25