Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000 FXUS64 KFWD 250846 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 346 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017 .DISCUSSION... A rapid warmup will begin today with building upper level high pressure and the return of Gulf moisture. The pressure gradient will tighten this afternoon in response to surface lee troughing across Eastern Colorado. As a result, southerly winds will increase across North and Central Texas between 15 and 25 mph along with gusts in excess of 30 mph. These speeds are just below wind advisory criteria, so we will forgo issuing one at this time. There will be plenty of sun today, which when coupled with the warm air advection, should send temperatures into the middle 80s to the middle 90s. Moisture recovery today will be the slowest across the western zones and relative humidities will fall below 30 percent this afternoon. The hot and dry conditions do raise some fire concerns. However, recent rainfall has kept the vegetation growing, so the fire threat should remain relatively low. The upper ridge will translate east tonight as an upper trough moves across the western CONUS. The approaching upper trough will deepen the Central High Plains surface trough which will keep the Gulf wide open. Therefore, tonight will be breezy and mild with lows in the 70s. Low clouds will also stream northward from South Texas and the Hill Country overnight and reach North Texas early Friday morning. Summer like conditions will return just in time for Memorial weekend with afternoon highs Friday generally in the 90s. Some triple digits are also likely across the western zones as the dryline mixes in and surface winds turn to the southwest. East of the dryline, dewpoints will remain in the upper 60s and lower 70s Friday afternoon,so afternoon heat index values will be around 100 in most areas. We don`t expect any storms to develop Friday afternoon due to a stout cap of warm air between 850 mb and 700 mb and a lack of large scale forcing. Saturday will be very similar to Friday with one exception, large scale lift will increase due to the approaching upper system. The increasing lift will work to lift and weaken the cap. Therefore, the mesoscale lift on the dryline may be enough for storms to develop Saturday afternoon. If any storms do manage to form they will likely become severe due to high instability (CAPE on the order of 5000+ J/kg) and favorable shear. We will still keep PoPs low for now since the cap may be difficult to overcome. Thunderstorm chances will increase Saturday night as the upper trough moves across the Central Plains and a cold front moves into North Texas. The best storm chances will be across the northeast zones in the region of the most favorable upper dynamics. We have kept PoPs on the low side (20-30) elsewhere since the cap may still be a limiting factor. The front will move slowly through the entire forecast area on Sunday which will increase precipitation chances. The storms Sunday will have an added boost from a shortwave approaching from the Desert Southwest. The front should clear the CWA Sunday night, but precipitation chances will linger across the southern zones through Monday as the shortwave translates across the region and moisture is forced up over the front. Precipitation chances will decrease Monday night once the shortwave moves to the east and brief large scale subsidence sets up. However, shower and thunderstorm chances will increase from south to north Tuesday through Thursday as the front lifts northward in response to another low pressure system approaching from near Baja. Energy and moisture associated with this system have the potential to bring precipitation chances to much of the region the second half of next week through the weekend. 79 && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017/ Winds have become southeasterly area-wide as the surface ridge behind yesterday`s cold front shifts east into East Texas and Louisiana. A strengthening lee Rockies surface trough will lead to a narrowing pressure gradient, resulting in increasing low level winds overnight. Winds will mix to the surface late Thursday morning, and all airports should experience sustained winds 15 to 20 KT with gusts 25 to 30 KT. These winds will remain fairly strong Thursday evening and overnight Thursday night. A low level moisture surge will result in a layer of stratus Friday morning, and MVFR ceilings have been added to the extended portion of the DFW TAF. Otherwise, VFR should prevail for the next 24 hours. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 90 74 94 77 94 / 0 0 0 5 20 Waco 90 74 93 76 93 / 0 0 0 5 10 Paris 84 69 88 73 88 / 0 0 0 5 20 Denton 90 74 95 76 95 / 0 0 0 5 20 McKinney 87 73 92 76 92 / 0 0 0 5 20 Dallas 90 75 93 78 93 / 0 0 0 5 20 Terrell 87 72 90 76 91 / 0 0 0 5 20 Corsicana 88 73 91 75 91 / 0 0 0 5 10 Temple 90 73 92 75 92 / 0 0 5 5 10 Mineral Wells 94 72 99 75 96 / 0 0 0 5 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 26/79

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