Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000 FXUS64 KFWD 240925 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 425 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .DISCUSSION... A deep cyclone emerged from the southern Rockies overnight. This stretching process has intensified the circulation, which will be inclined to move equatorward on its eastward path today. Convection blossomed Thursday evening along the associated dryline across the Texas Panhandle and South Plains. Winds exceed 50 knots above the boundary (invof 700mb), and with an adequate cross-boundary component, the activity has made steady progress east overnight, with the dryline in-tow. However, a strong inversion remains downstream, and the convection has steadily diminished in intensity during the early morning hours. But the synoptically forced motion of the dryline is peeling up the surface layer to the east, and some showery activity is still ongoing. The boundary layer moisture was deeply mixed across much of North Texas on Thursday, and the instability the dryline is encountering is proving insufficient for updrafts supportive of lightning. But a replenishing surge of Gulf air is beginning to arrive and will refuel the layer beneath the inversion this morning. However, as the low-level flow veers with the decaying convective complex, the axis of richest moist advection will reorient itself into East Texas. The result should mean little change in the intensity of the line until later this morning when the convective elements begin ingesting better quality parcels east of the I-35 corridor. Today`s PoPs might suggest heavier precipitation, but most areas along and west of the I-35 corridor will see scant totals. But with the speed of the line, even light rain will be able to spread measurable rainfall over a considerable area. The greatest potential for thunderstorms with brief heavy rain will be east of the I-35 corridor from late morning through the afternoon hours. Shear profiles suggest a linear complex will be favored with some training of fast-moving cells in advance of the line. The Gulf moisture will not be extraordinary for late March, and being still early in the day, the boundary layer instability will be modest at best. Some updrafts may be able to support hail, but the downward transport of the strong mid-level winds will likely be the primary hazard early this afternoon. The convection will intensify later this afternoon, but the line should be east of our CWA when this occurs. As the precipitation passes, dry air will surge into western portions of North Texas. Deep mixing will allow some of the cyclone`s momentum to reach the surface, and wind gusts may reach/exceed 40 mph again today in our far western/northwestern zones. Downslope warming will offset the cold advection the winds will impart, and with full sun, high temperatures will reach the lower 80s behind the dryline. This will plunge relative humidity values below 20 percent. Combined with the gusty winds, extreme fire weather conditions are expected. A red flag warning has been issued for areas along and west of a line from Sherman/Denison to Dallas to Goldthwaite. A more westerly subset of this area, where sustained wind speeds will be 25 mph or greater, will also be under a wind advisory. Both will expire before sunset as the winds subside. Cold advection will ensue in earnest tonight, and temperatures will fall into the upper 40s and lower 50s for the first time in over a week. A mild but still pleasant day will follow, but the early spring chill will be short-lived. Strong south winds will return Sunday in advance of the next storm system, and afternoon temperatures will soar into the 80s. This trough will have a more northerly track to its predecessor, and the best storm chances will be well to our north. Areas north of the I-20 corridor may be near the tail end of the convective activity. Although storm chances have diminished, any storms that develop could become severe late Sunday. The subsequent system, which is still on schedule for the middle of next week, may be the most notable within this 7-day forecast. While there is still some disparity in timing and track among various operational solutions (and their ensemble members), there is considerable agreement for a system still several days out. Most significant is the low`s southerly track, potentially through North Texas. This would tug deep tropical moisture into the region and could provide our first significant rain event of the spring season. 25 && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 1210 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/ Stratus will spread north from South Texas on a 50-knot low- level jet. Expect MVFR ceilings to move into Waco 06-07z and into the Metroplex 08-09z. As an upper level trough and surface dryline approach from the west, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms may reach the I-35 corridor before daybreak. The atmosphere is expected to be capped, so for now have just included VCSH for the 11-16Z period. The stratus will be quickly swept to the east as the dryline passes. Winds will shift to the southwest at 15-25 knots. Some gusts over 30 knots behind the dryline. The gusts should die off toward sunset Friday. As Pacific cold front moves through the Metroplex Friday evening, winds will shift to the west northwest at around 15 knots. 58 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 52 75 55 85 / 60 5 0 0 10 Waco 81 50 77 53 84 / 60 5 0 0 10 Paris 73 52 71 51 81 / 70 20 5 0 20 Denton 82 50 73 50 84 / 40 5 0 0 20 McKinney 77 51 72 50 83 / 60 5 0 0 20 Dallas 81 54 76 56 85 / 60 5 0 0 10 Terrell 76 51 75 52 83 / 60 10 0 0 10 Corsicana 77 52 75 55 83 / 60 10 0 0 10 Temple 81 50 78 55 84 / 60 5 0 0 10 Mineral Wells 83 49 75 52 87 / 20 5 0 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>093-100>104-115>119-129>133-141>144. Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091-092-100>102-115>117-129>131-141. && $$ 82/25 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.