Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000 FXUS64 KFWD 291118 AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 518 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015 .AVIATION... AT 515 AM NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE REACHED HASLET AND DENTON...AND WILL START THE 12Z METROPLEX TAFS WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS. BY MID AFTERNOON WINDS SHOULD GUST INTO THE LOW TO MID 20KT RANGE...DECREASING AT SUNSET. SCT SKIES TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A HIGH OVERCAST ON FRIDAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS. RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN SATURDAY MORNING. THE WACO WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 15-16Z THIS MORNING...AGAIN WITH NO RESTRICTIONS TO CIG/VSBY. 84 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/ A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM TAHLEQUAH OKLAHOMA /KTQH/...TO ADA OKLAHOMA /KADA/...TO BOWIE /KOF2/ TO SWEETWATER /KSWW/ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR A PARIS TO DFW TO COMANCHE BY DAYBREAK...AND TO SOUTHEAST OF A PALESTINE TO GEORGETOWN LINE BY MID AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 15 TO 25 MPH AS THE FRONT PASSES. DESPITE DECENT INSOLATION TODAY /WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS/...THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE SHERMAN TO GRAHAM AREA TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE TEMPLE TO PALESTINE AREA. THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER SUNSET. WE WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AREA WIDE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH. ALL OF THE MAIN COMPUTER MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SO HAVE DONE LIKEWISE IN THE FORECAST. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES...AND SPREAD EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...AND HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH 40S TO MID 50S EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. WITH DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FARTHER EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY DESPITE THE SUNSHINE WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MAY BRING SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME LINGERING LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY. EXPECT NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 58 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 64 39 54 42 49 / 5 0 5 20 70 WACO, TX 68 41 56 42 54 / 5 5 10 20 70 PARIS, TX 62 34 53 38 48 / 5 0 5 20 40 DENTON, TX 62 36 53 40 48 / 5 0 5 30 70 MCKINNEY, TX 64 36 53 39 50 / 5 0 5 20 70 DALLAS, TX 64 39 54 42 51 / 5 0 5 20 70 TERRELL, TX 66 37 55 40 52 / 5 0 5 20 50 CORSICANA, TX 68 40 55 41 54 / 5 0 5 20 50 TEMPLE, TX 70 42 55 42 53 / 5 5 10 30 70 MINERAL WELLS, TX 62 36 52 40 47 / 5 5 10 40 80 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ /

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