Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS64 KFWD 190449 AAB AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1149 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014 .AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
HAVE DECIDED TO ADD 5SM BR TO THE KAFW AND KACT TAFS 12-14Z DUE TO THEIR MORE RURAL LOCATION AND TENDENCIES FOR COOLER DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES AND RESULTING SMALLER T/DP SPREADS. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AND DISCUSSION REMAINS ON TRACK WITH VFR SKIES OF SCT-BKN250...AND VFR CIGS FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES...AND LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND 8 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. 75
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PREV DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
/ISSUED 324 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/ AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE AND SOME PATCHY FOG/MIST MAY DEVELOP. THE VISIBILITY WILL NOT BECOME TOO RESTRICTED SATURDAY MORNING SINCE ANY FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD BE VERY SHALLOW. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NORTHERN MEXICO. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER FAR WEST TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN CAPPED AS WARM AIR FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU STREAMS OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND AND THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SYNOPTIC LIFT COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS A PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BREAKS OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON THE MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE AND THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WE HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY SUNDAY BASED ON THE AGREEMENT OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...SO ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM ON SUNDAY WILL BE ELEVATED AND SHOULD NOT POSE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SO WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ON TUESDAY AND RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND NO RAIN CHANCES. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT AFFECT NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH OF THE DRY LINE ON THURSDAY MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AND ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO ENTER NORTH TEXAS. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH DRY AND BRING LITTLE MORE THAN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL. 79
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 56 78 61 78 63 / 5 5 20 30 30 WACO, TX 54 77 60 78 62 / 5 5 20 30 20 PARIS, TX 52 77 57 76 60 / 5 5 10 30 40 DENTON, TX 53 78 59 79 62 / 5 5 20 30 40 MCKINNEY, TX 53 75 57 77 61 / 5 5 20 30 40 DALLAS, TX 57 78 62 78 64 / 5 5 20 30 30 TERRELL, TX 53 77 58 79 62 / 5 5 10 30 30 CORSICANA, TX 56 77 59 78 62 / 5 5 10 30 20 TEMPLE, TX 54 78 58 77 62 / 5 5 20 30 20 MINERAL WELLS, TX 52 77 58 76 60 / 5 5 20 30 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ /75

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.