Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000 FXUS64 KFWD 010438 AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1138 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014 .AVIATION...
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THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE RETURN OF STRATUS OVERNIGHT...BUT BEING A BIT OF AN OUTLIER LEADS TO THE BELIEF THAT IT MAY BE OVERDOING IT. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE RAP AND GFS SOLUTIONS WHICH INDICATE GOOD NORTHWARD MOISTURE SURGE WITHIN THE 25KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...BUT GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS PLACES THE DALLAS AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK FIRST THING IN THE MORNING...SO WE WILL MAINTAIN THE MVFR CIGS AT KDAL AND KDFW 13Z UNTIL 16Z. STRATUS SHOULD ARRIVE A FEW HOURS EARLIER AT KACT. THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN VFR. STRATUS WILL LIKELY RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CONVECTION STILL A POSSIBILITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEYOND THIS TAF SET. 30
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&& .UPDATE... A FEW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES BEFORE SUNSET DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET. OTHER THAN REMOVING THE MENTION OF EVENING SHOWERS...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. 79 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THIS AFTERNOON WHICH ARE PART OF A LARGER LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE FIRST IS QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR PROVIDING FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE PRIMARY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL REMOVED FROM NORTH TEXAS. THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED 994MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS HAS HELPED PULL SOME HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR INTO NORTH TEXAS WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS JUST NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY DIVE SOUTHEAST AND DEEPEN OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. MEANWHILE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TOMORROW. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL EJECT NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH TEXAS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE AMOUNT OF FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. THE NAM IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH AND THEREFORE HAS THE BEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY CLUSTERED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND THIS FORECAST WILL FAVOR THAT TRACK FOR THE UPPER LOW. THIS MEANS THAT THE BEST FORCING WILL STAY NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER THE FRONT IS STRONG AND THERE WILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT ALONG WITH SOME DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AROUND MIDDAY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH MOST ACTIVITY BEING NORTH OF I-20 INITIALLY. THE LINE SHOULD EXPAND SOUTHWARD IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH BEST OVERALL RAIN CHANCES HOLDING EAST OF I-35 THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. THE FRONT WILL BE FAST MOVING AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING AND COOLER...DRIER AIR MOVING IN. THE CENTER OF A SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVER NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING AND THAT SHOULD BE THE COOLEST MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S AREAWIDE. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S BY MONDAY. DUNN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 73 92 75 88 62 / 5 5 10 40 20 WACO, TX 71 92 75 90 64 / 5 5 5 30 30 PARIS, TX 69 89 72 87 60 / 10 5 10 50 30 DENTON, TX 68 92 74 88 58 / 5 5 10 30 10 MCKINNEY, TX 70 91 74 88 59 / 5 5 10 40 20 DALLAS, TX 73 92 75 89 63 / 5 5 5 40 20 TERRELL, TX 73 92 74 89 61 / 5 5 5 50 30 CORSICANA, TX 72 91 73 90 63 / 10 5 5 40 40 TEMPLE, TX 69 92 73 90 63 / 5 5 5 20 30 MINERAL WELLS, TX 68 93 71 89 57 / 5 5 10 20 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$

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