Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000 FXUS64 KFWD 252321 AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 621 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .AVIATION...
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FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...SHOULD ENSURE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LEADING TO SOME STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN SOME EARLY MORNING STRATUS TO CONTEND WITH AT AREA AIRPORTS FOR MONDAY MORNING...BUT THIS IS BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE CURRENT VALID FORECAST PERIOD. CAVANAUGH
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/ISSUED 321 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/ AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER TEXAS TODAY AND HAS RESULTED IN AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY REACHING THE 90S IN THE WESTERN ZONES WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. SO FAR IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF DFW WILL SET OR TIE ITS DAILY RECORD OF 89 LAST SET IN 1992. IF THE RECORD IS TIED IT WILL BE THE 4TH TIME IT HAS REACHED 89 ON THIS DATE. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND DESPITE THE WARM AFTERNOON...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPS NEAR TODAY/S READINGS...BUT RECORD HIGHS AT BOTH DFW AND WACO LOOK OUT OF REACH. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE DAY WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON. WITH THESE WINDS...LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE...BRINGING AN INVASION OF STRATUS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS...BUT READINGS WILL STILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST AREAS. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY TRACK WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY EARLY IN THE WEEK...WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY. SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS OKLAHOMA...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE EXITING THE REGION WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL OR WESTERN ZONES...BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN FROM SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL VARY QUITE A BIT OVER THE CWA...WITH LOW 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...BUT MID 80S ARE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME CLEARING OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISAGREE REGARDING THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE MIDWEEK. THE ECMWF STILL ADVERTISES A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS FEATURE IN THE MODEL IS STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850MB AND INDUCE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. THE GFS HAS TRENDED A LITTLE TOWARD THE ECMWF THIS RUN AND SHOWS MORE MOISTURE...BUT IT STILL DOES NOT GENERATE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT REQUIRED FOR CONVECTION. WILL KEEP 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY. IF THE ECMWF FORECAST DOES VERIFY...CLOUDS WILL RETURN OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST LOW TEMPS AND COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST HIGH TEMPS. IN THE WAKE OF THE THURSDAY UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AND RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AND THE GRADUAL INVASION OF A COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. TEMPS WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY...AND BY SATURDAY HIGHS MAY ONLY TOP OUT NEAR 70 DESPITE SUNNY SKIES. LOW TEMPS WILL BENEFIT FROM GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NEXT WEEKEND...AND SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S AREA WIDE. TR.92
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 66 90 66 86 66 / 0 0 0 0 10 WACO, TX 60 88 64 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 5 PARIS, TX 61 88 60 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 20 DENTON, TX 61 90 63 85 62 / 0 0 0 5 10 MCKINNEY, TX 61 89 62 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 20 DALLAS, TX 66 90 66 86 67 / 0 0 0 0 10 TERRELL, TX 63 89 65 86 66 / 0 0 0 0 10 CORSICANA, TX 63 87 64 85 66 / 0 0 0 0 5 TEMPLE, TX 60 87 61 85 65 / 0 0 0 0 5 MINERAL WELLS, TX 61 91 61 87 61 / 0 0 0 5 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ /

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