Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000 FXUS64 KFWD 032345 AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 645 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .UPDATE... LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY OVER NORTH TEXAS OVER THE LAST HOUR AS WEAK BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME QUITE A BIT MORE DIFFUSE. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES TRY TO DEVELOP QUICKLY DIMINISHES. IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 20-30 PERCENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM ACTIVITY. THERE IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL PROVIDE ASCENT OVERNIGHT TO OUR NORTH. ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT CAN GET ORGANIZED TO OUR NORTH MAY PUSH INTO NORTH TEXAS LATER TONIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. DUNN && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/ THE TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON HAS BEEN FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVED SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS THAT FORMED FARTHER SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR... HAVE BEEN SHORT-LIVED. BESIDES SOME SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY 06Z...AND SPREAD INTO THE WACO AREA BY 10Z. EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT BY 16Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE 36 HOURS. 58 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/ FROM THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION...THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO CENTER ON THE CHANCES FOR NEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. 2 PM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT THE WEAK FRONT WAS IN PLACE ROUGHLY ALONG A BOWIE TO MCKINNEY TO EMORY LINE. THE FRONT HAS REORIENTED ITSELF FROM EAST TO WEST EARLIER THIS MORNING TO NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO TRACK ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SECOND... SLIGHTLY STRONGER...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. THROUGH THIS EVENING...NEITHER OF THESE TROUGHS IS IN A POSITION TO SPREAD LIFT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...SO THINK THAT THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOURCE OF ANY NEW RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THINK THAT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO DO NOT THINK ANY EVENING INDEPENDENCE DAY RELATED FESTIVITIES WILL BE A COMPLETE WASH OUT. DELAYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND MOST LIKELY NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOT REALLY MADE ANY PROGRESS DUE SOUTH TOWARDS DOWNTOWN DALLAS OR FORT WORTH...SO RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING WERE HELD IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. KEPT POPS IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED FOR MOST STORMS...IT IS DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT A DAMAGING MICROBURST FROM A FEW STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY CALCULATED PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT CAPE IS ON THE ORDER OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 15 TO 20 KTS. REGIONAL MORNING RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE SOMEWHAT MEAGER...AND THE KFWS RAOB HAD A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.90 INCHES. THESE PARAMETERS SUPPORT PRIMARILY A SINGLE TO MULTI-CELL STORM MODE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE THREATS MENTIONED ABOVE. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A THREAT AT THIS TIME. FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...BUT COULD BECOME A LARGER SCALE THREAT IF THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IS GREATER THAN ANTICIPATED. THE WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT THE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED IN NATURE...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT BEFORE SWINGING EAST TOMORROW MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL SPREAD SOME DECENT LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...AND WILL HELP INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR A BIT AS WELL. AS A RESULT...THINK THAT THE 12Z NAM SOLUTION FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF VERIFYING. THIS SOLUTION INDICATES THAT A MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTER WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND MOVE DUE SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS. OUR LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER STRONGLY OUT AHEAD OF THIS CLUSTER...AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY TO 20 TO 25 KTS. WHILE THIS IS NOT A SUPER STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET BY ANY MEANS...THE CHANGE IN DIRECTION AND SPEED IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE DOES PROMOTE A SITUATION WHERE THE PROPAGATION OF NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE JUST AS STRONG IF NOT A BIT STRONGER THAN THE MEAN LAYER OR ADVECTIVE WINDS. AS A RESULT...THE MULTICELL CLUSTER IS EXPECTED TO SINK ALMOST DUE SOUTH...WHILE SLOWLY BUILDING OR GENERATING NEW UPDRAFTS ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THESE STORMS DRAGGING THE CLUSTER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA AFTER 09Z. HAVE 60 PERCENT POPS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A GAINESVILLE TO EMORY LINE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ANTICIPATED STORM MOTION. THINK THAT THE BACKBUILDING COMPONENT OF THE MULTICELL CLUSTER WILL WEAKEN AFTER A FEW HOURS OF HEATING HELPS TO MIX OUT THE HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL JET. WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THEN MOVING EAST OF THE REGION...THE COMBINATION OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH...AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENING SHOULD CAUSE THE ENTIRE COMPLEX OF STORMS TO DISSIPATE JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF DALLAS BY 15Z/10AM. FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITHOUT ANY OBVIOUS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TIED TO WHATEVER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS IN TACT. LEFT POPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AS THE OVERNIGHT MULTI-CELL CLUSTER OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THERE...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DFW AREA TOMORROW MORNING. IF THE CLUSTER DOES NOT PAN OUT AS EXPECTED...POPS MAY BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST TOMORROW. IF THE CLUSTER MOVES FARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN EXPECTED...WILL PROBABLY NEED TO ADD AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF POPS TO WHEREVER THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GOES TOMORROW. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS A SOLUTION THAT IS SIMILAR TO THE NAM...SO THINK THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY FOR EVENING INDEPENDENCE DAY FESTIVITIES TOMORROW. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST OVER THE CWA...SO KEPT MOST AREAS DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AT THIS TIME. ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT REMAIN IN PLACE OR MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH OR WEST MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORMS. AT THIS TIME ONLY LEFT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A SHERMAN TO EMORY LINE ON SUNDAY AS THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA WHERE A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN IN PLACE. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THAT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT WILL BE GETTING FARTHER AND FARTHER AWAY FROM UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON TUESDAY...SO IT MAY STALL OUT BEFORE IT EVER REACHES THE CWA. THINK THAT THE AGGRESSIVE CONVECTION IN MODEL GUIDANCE IS HELPING THE FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA EXPLAINS WHY MOST GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING 40 TO 60 POPS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS. KEPT SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IN THE FRONT MAKING IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE CWA IS LOW AT THIS TIME. IT IS FAIRLY UNCOMMON FOR A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT TO MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO NORTH TEXAS IN JULY...SO WILL HEDGE TOWARDS LOWER RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME. IF THE FRONT IS LINED UP WITH STORMS AS IT MOVES SOUTH...IT DOES HAVE A CHANCE TO MAKE IT INTO THE CWA AS ADVERTISED. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A SOLID LINE OF STORMS ON THAT FRONT BEFORE BRINGING IT INTO NORTH TEXAS HOWEVER. IF IT GETS HERE...WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE PERIOD. THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER NORTH TEXAS. IF WE HAVE 4-5 DAYS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE END OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WE MAY START FLIRTING WITH 100 DEGREE HIGHS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S FOR NOW...BUT THIS IS A LARGE SCALE PATTERN THAT TYPICALLY INCREASES THE HEAT THIS TIME OF YEAR. CAVANAUGH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 76 95 76 92 77 / 30 20 10 5 5 WACO, TX 74 93 74 91 75 / 20 20 10 5 5 PARIS, TX 72 88 73 88 74 / 60 40 20 30 10 DENTON, TX 73 95 74 91 75 / 30 20 10 10 5 MCKINNEY, TX 74 89 75 90 75 / 40 30 20 10 5 DALLAS, TX 77 95 77 93 77 / 30 20 10 5 5 TERRELL, TX 74 89 74 89 74 / 30 30 20 10 5 CORSICANA, TX 74 91 75 91 75 / 20 20 10 5 5 TEMPLE, TX 73 93 73 91 74 / 20 20 10 10 5 MINERAL WELLS, TX 73 93 73 92 74 / 20 10 10 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$

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