Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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413 FXUS64 KFWD 010133 AAA AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 833 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016 .UPDATE... EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COOLER DRIER AIR NOW STARTING TO FILTER INTO NORTH TEXAS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL HAS LED TO WET GROUNDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY WHERE WINDS GO CALM...BUT THINK WIDESPREAD FOG IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN AND WIND SPEEDS THAT SHOULD STAY AROUND 5 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN TO TWEAK HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND LOWER THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG OVERNIGHT. DUNN && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/ VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT TALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. DRIER AIR HAS TAKEN HOLD OF THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE TO ITS SOUTH. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH MAY MANAGE TO CREEP NORTHWARD INTO THE WACO TAF SITE. HAVE INCLUDED THIS POTENTIAL WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. WHERE WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT IMPACTS TO VSBYS AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT ON MONDAY MORNING...WHICH REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT THIS TIME. RAIN AND POSSIBLY A MENTION OF THUNDER WILL NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN SUBSEQUENT TAF PACKAGES. STALLEY && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/ LOW LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR FRIDAY/S CONVECTIVE OUTBREAK CONTINUES LIFTING NORTH AWAY FROM NORTH TEXAS. SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA IS HELPING TO BREAK OUT THE STRATUS THAT/S BEEN AROUND ALL DAY. CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND SOME WET SOILS AROUND MAY LEND TO SOME PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE HEAVIER RAINS FELL. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS PREVALENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS. ANOTHER UPPER LOW NOW OVER LAS VEGAS NV IS LITERALLY ROTATING IN A FUJIWARA FASHION WITH THE OLD LOW NOW MOVING NORTH OVER NEBRASKA...ALL WITHIN THE BROADER LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM OVER LAS VEGAS WILL BEGIN TO TURN EAST AND MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES AND AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT FOR A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG-SEVERE STORMS SOUTHEAST OF GATESVILLE TO ATHENS LINE LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. HAIL...DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE HIGHS WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRESENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE SOMEWHAT ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION. THE ENTIRE CWA WILL BE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL COOL SECTOR...SO ANY STRONG STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS WARRANT ANY FLOOD WATCHES EAST OF I-35...BUT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY EXACERBATE ONGOING RIVER FLOODING ISSUES ON THE BRAZOS/TRINITY/AND SABINE RIVER BASINS. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 60S NORTHWEST AND THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST. AS THIS SECOND UPPER LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE COLUMN MOISTURE WILL BE A LITTLE RICHER. LOW CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THE CURRENT AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT FINALLY APPEARS TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THE REST OF THIS COMING WEEK. A FULL LATITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST FROM THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE PLAINS WITH A DRY AND SEASONABLE WEEK AHEAD. THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THAT NEED TIME TO DRY OUT FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM ARRIVING LATER NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY PART OF THE WEEK OF MAY 7TH. MANY DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...AS MODELS USUALLY STRUGGLE MIGHTILY WITH TRACK...TIMING...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEYOND 120 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. WE HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO RECOVER HERE AND GET MORE DATA INTO MODELS FOR THE TIME BEING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AFTER MONDAY AND MUCH OF THE WEEK. 05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH 58 75 59 69 55 / 5 5 60 30 5 WACO 59 77 58 71 56 / 5 20 60 30 10 PARIS 57 76 56 70 54 / 10 5 60 20 5 DENTON 54 74 55 68 52 / 0 5 50 30 5 MCKINNEY 56 75 56 68 53 / 5 5 60 30 5 DALLAS 59 76 59 70 56 / 5 5 60 30 5 TERRELL 58 77 58 71 55 / 5 10 60 40 10 CORSICANA 60 78 60 72 56 / 10 20 60 40 10 TEMPLE 61 78 60 72 56 / 10 20 60 40 20 MINERAL WELLS 54 73 55 69 51 / 5 10 50 30 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$

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