Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 141708
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1008 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HOLD NO SURPRISES. SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. ADVISORIES IN NW CO ARE ON
TRACK. AT 9AM SNOW HAD SPREAD INTO THE NW UINTA MTNS BUT WAS STILL
DRY IN OUR CWA. JET SUPPORT QUICKLY ENHANCES OVER NW CO THIS
AFTERNOON BUT IS EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY THIS EVENING. DENDRITIC
CRYSTAL GROWTH REGION IS NEAR SATURATION THROUGH THIS PERIODS AT
AROUND 600MB/14KFT. NE UTAH AND MUCH OF THE NW CO PLATEAU ARE
STILL PROGGED TO GET LITTLE SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE I-70
CORRIDOR FROM GLENWOOD EAST COULD GET SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION THIS
EVENING. IF THE NAM IS CORRECT EVEN RIFLE COULD GET AN INCH OF
SNOW BUT THIS LOOKS OVERDONE FOR NOW.

BY MIDNIGHT THE DYNAMICAL PORTION OF THE STORM IS OVER AND IT
BECOMES AN OROGRAPHIC EVENT. THIS IS STILL OPTIMAL FOR THE PARK
RANGE AND STEAMBOAT SPRINGS AREA. CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS EMPHASIZE THE
BEST SNOW FROM STEAMBOAT NORTHWARD AND THIS STILL LOOKS CORRECT.
VAIL PASS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW THROUGH MONDAY THOUGH SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

DEEP MOISTURE (3 TO 3.5 G/KG AT 700 MB PER NAM) SPILLING OVER THE
WEST COAST RIDGE ARRIVES OVER THE ELKHEAD AND PARK RANGES EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WILL SPREAD INTO THE FLAT TOPS...GORE AND ELK
RANGES DURING THE DAY. THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE CARRIED BY NORTHWEST
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST BEYOND 36 HOURS YIELDING SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. INITIALLY NAM80 DIVQ FIELDS SHOWED UPWARD
MID-LEVEL FORCING...BUT BEYOND THIS MORNING DYNAMIC FORCING
APPEARED LIMITED. HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OF 25 TO 35 KTS
AT THE 7H LEVEL MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE OROGRAPHIC
SNOWFALL IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS
SATURATED. IT APPEARS THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS FAVORED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHEN LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST AND 110 KT JET
NOSES OVER THE AREA. SNOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THOUGH DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE DROPS BELOW SATURATION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND EXPECT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHTER DURING THIS PERIOD. FORECAST APPEARS
ON TRACK WITH 6 TO 12 INCH ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE ELKHEAD AND PARK
RANGES WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN THE FLAT TOPS AND ELKS. CURRENT
HIGHLIGHTS LOOK GOOD AND DON/T SEE ANY CALL FOR CHANGES AT THIS
POINT.

MOISTURE DESCRIBED PREVIOUSLY IS EXCLUSIVE TO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SO EXPECT THERE WILL BE CLOUDS...BUT LITTLE
PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE. A BIT OF A DOWNTURN IN TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WITH CAA THOUGH NOT APPRECIABLE. IN CONTRAST...CLOUDS WILL
BRING MORE MODERATE OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY ERODING MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE GREAT BASIN...SENDING DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SNOW OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO BE WINDING DOWN WITH DRY WEATHER MOVING
BACK IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...PATTERN IS
BECOMING A BIT MORE ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY EARLY
THURSDAY. THIS OPEN WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND SHOWERY PRECIP TO THE VALLEYS. MODELS COMING
INTO BETTER TIMING AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVING
OUT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WILL START NUDGING POPS UP A BIT
THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN
WITH GRADIENTS TIGHTENING UP ALONG THE DIVIDE AND TO OUR EAST WITH
LESS SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING. ANOTHER FLAT RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD
BACK IN BEHIND THIS EXITING WAVE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUMPING A BIT MORE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
GOOD MIXING EXPECTED WITH THE WAVE LATE IN THE WEEK. SO A COOLER
START...THEN TEMPS JUMPING A BIT MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE...THEN DROPPING BACK AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MID DAY)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

SNOW WILL INCREASE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CO I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. AFT 21Z MOUNTAIN TOPS ACROSS NW COLORADO WILL
BECOME OBSCURED AT TIMES. KEGE KASE WILL HAVE PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH CIGS 030-050 AND VSBY 3-5SM IN SNOW. STRONG NW
WINDS AT AND ABOVE MTN TOP LEVEL WILL KEEP TURBULENCE ELEVATED
WITH POSSIBILITY OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. AFT 12Z SNOW WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE MTNS ALONG AND NORTH OF VAIL PASS INTO WYOMING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     COZ004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     COZ005-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR COZ010.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...TGJT


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