Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 280647
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1147 PM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 PM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

Cold front has stalled north of the Bookcliffs this evening with
moderate to heavy snow falling along a narrow band just north of
the front. Spotters reporting anywhere from 3 to 6 inches under
the band with lighter amounts south and north of a line roughly
along Highway 40. The front will be shifting south overnight with
heavier precipitation sliding south with it. Have hoisted
additional winter weather advisories for the lower west-central
mountains and across the northwest plateau. Snow also picking up
across the southern zones this evening with 6 inches reported near
Silverton and automated sensors climbing at a nice steady rate.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 345 PM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

Gusty southwesterly winds are being reported across the forecast
area this afternoon as a storm system continues to push east
towards the forecast area. The current satellite water vapor image
is showing the associated trough of low pressure sliding through
the Great Basin placing Utah and Colorado in moist southwesterly
flow. The satellite and GPS derived total precipitable water image
is showing between 0.50 and 0.60 inches of precipitable water or
about a 116 percent of normal pushing into the Four Corners.

Over the next 18 to 24 hours the 1800Z GFS is showing a 150 kt
jetstream passing over head while at the surface a cold front is
expected to push southwest overnight. These conditions support
gusty southwesterly winds which may be strong at times,
especially over the higher terrain through this evening. Ahead of
the front modest isentropic ascent is in place and will lift the
afore mentioned moisture resulting in light to moderate rain in
the valleys with mountain snows. The rain in the valleys will
transition over to snow later this evening.

The trajectory of the moisture and lift will provide southern
portions of the CWA enhanced precipitation. Therefore Winter
Weather Advisory and Winter Storm Warnings are in place across
the southern CWA including low elevations. In addition Winter
Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings are in place for
many of our Mountain zones. Some of the areas of heavier snow fall
are expected to be the San Juan Mountains, especially
southwesterly facing slopes. The storm system should be east of
the area by late Tuesday morning bringing an end to the snowfall
by Tuesday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

The 1800Z GFS20 and 1200Z ECMWF have initialized well with the
current synoptic weather pattern and remain in good agreement
through the up coming weekend. Both models quickly build a broad ridge
of high pressure over the the Western CONUS behind the departing
system which is impacting our area Today. This broad ridge of high
pressure will bring dry weather and a modest warming trend for
the second half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1145 PM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

A strong Pacific storm will be passing through eastern Utah and
western Colorado through Tuesday bringing widespread rain and snow
to the area. Expect CIGS to drop below ILS levels with areas of
IFR and MVFR conds persisting through Tuesday evening. Mountains
will be obscured and areas of blowing snow will also be prevalent
over the higher elevations. Conditions are expected to slowly
improve from northwest to southeast Tuesday night.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Winter Weather Advisory until noon MST Tuesday for COZ003-004-
     013.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MST Tuesday for COZ002-005.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST Tuesday night for
     COZ009-010-017.

     Winter Storm Warning until midnight MST Tuesday night for COZ012-
     018-019.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Tuesday for COZ020-021.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST Tuesday for COZ014.

     Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for COZ022-023.

UT...Winter Weather Advisory until noon MST Tuesday for UTZ025.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST Tuesday night for
     UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...Larry
LONG TERM...Larry
AVIATION...JDC


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