Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 260449
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1049 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CONVECTION CONTINUING THIS EVENING UP NORTH WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER WAVE IN CENTRAL UTAH AIMING TOWARDS OUR CWA. A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER POSSIBLE BUT SOME SHOWERS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE SO BUMPED
UP POPS FOR NRN ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD BE
DONE BY THEN AND CURRENT GRIDS CAPTURE THIS WELL. MORE PRECIP ON
TAP TOMORROW WITH AREAS N OF I-70 BEING FAVORED BY MODELS ATTM
THOUGH SOME STORMS WILL FIRE OVER SAN JUANS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ANOTHER SOMEWHAT ACTIVE EVENING UNDERWAY AS THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SWATH CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
THE GRAND VALLEY HAS BEEN HARDEST HIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH REPORTS
UP TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES WITHIN AN HOUR AND A HALF NEAR THE
COLORADO NATIONAL MONUMENT...DUE TO STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
OVER GLADE PARK AND TRAINING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. CURRENT RADAR
RETURNS INDICATE WEAKENING OF STORMS OVER THIS AREA...AND THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS MOVING EAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY. A H5 VORT MAX IN NORTHWESTERN AZ WILL
WRAP AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND GET TO EAST CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UTAH
AROUND 10PM TONIGHT. EXPECTING NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE LIKE
LAST NIGHT BUT WITH LESS COVERAGE AND FURTHER NORTH...AS THIS
DISTURBANCE IS WEAKER.

NEWEST MODEL RUNS KEEP PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.95 INCHES FOR
SATURDAY...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN WE HAVE BEEN SEEING
FORECAST IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...CANNOT IDENTIFY ANY
STRIKING FEATURES TOMORROW THAT WILL CREATE LARGE COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SO KEPT POPS
MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING SHOWERS WILL END EARLIER
SATURDAY EVENING AND NOT CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HANG AT OR ABOVE AN INCH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ANY
WIGGLES IN THE FLOW WILL EXCITE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FINDING
THOSE MINOR RIPPLES IN THE FLOW WILL BE THE CHALLENGE OVER THE
NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS HINTING AT A FEW STRONGER WAVES
EARLY MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY. WILL BE MAINTAINING RATHER HIGH
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS
HIGHLIGHTED. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING CLOSE TO
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

LOCALIZED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THIS ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT KCNY BRIEFLY BEFORE 09Z
THOUGH A DECREASE IN FLIGHT CATEGORY IS UNLIKELY. IN FACT...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CARRY THROUGH UNTIL MIDDAY SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...DAYTIME HEATING WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL
DRIFT OVER ADJACENT VALLEYS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MONSOON MOISTURE IS RATHER DEEP SO
STORMS MOVING OVER TAF SITES WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VSBY
AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...NL



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