Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 280512
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1112 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY
AND TONIGHT WILL FLATTEN ON SATURDAY AS A PACIFIC TROUGH RACES
INLAND AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHEAST UT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN INTO WRN
CO DURING THE EVENING BEFORE SETTLING TO ABOUT THE SAN JUAN MTNS BY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE
THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MTNS WITH THE FRONT. MORE
NOTICEABLE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NW CO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PRE-FRONTAL WARMING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD BOOST HIGH TEMPS
ANOTHER 5+ DEGREES OVER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO REBOUND OVER THE WEST ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
NEXT WEAK TROUGH WILL WORK UNDER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN
ON SUN...THEN OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON MON. A MODEST AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE.
ENERGY AND MOISTURE REMAIN MARGINAL SO SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO
MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE WEST
ELK AND SAWATCH RANGES.

ADDITIONAL LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...INCLUDING ONE SHORTWAVE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON WED. THE BEST MOISTURE/FORCING
FOR THIS DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. BUT WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING. A SHARPER AND STRONGER TROUGH FOLLOWS
IN THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS THE GFS KEEPS THE PATTERN MORE ZONAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUE. THE
FRONT ON WED WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BRIEF
EXCEPTIONS MAY BE AFTER 00Z AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FORM
OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS AND COLORADO CENTRAL MTNS. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE POSSIBLE GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS AT TAF SITES KVEL
KEGE KASE BETWEEN 01Z- 04Z. ELSEWHERE KCAG KHDN KSBS COULD SEE
VRB15G35KT CIGS 030-050 IN -SHRA BETWEEN 00Z-04Z. MODERATE
MTN TOP LEVEL TURBULENCE EXPECTED AFT 15Z SATURDAY...STRONGEST
NORTH.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL



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