Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 020504
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1104 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODEST MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000
J/KG...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JETLET PASSAGE SUPPORTING
CURRENT CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER THE
STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER ADJACENT VALLEYS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WILL SEE THE TYPICAL DOWNTURN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A
LITTLE LESS MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. WILL GO WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS TOMORROW MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CO MTNS
WHERE THE NOSE OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL JETLET WILL BE PROVIDING
ADDED LIFT LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL JET SETS UP OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND HELPS PULL PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTH OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL INCLUDE MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM
THE CURRENT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E. GFS AND SREF MOST
AGGRESSIVE...BUT ALSO MOST REASONABLE GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
PRECIP WATER VALUES TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH...HIGHEST OVER
SOUTHEAST UT AND FOUR CORNERS...THURSDAY AND CONTINUE AT THIS
LEVEL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FLASH
FLOOD WATCH...BUT AT THIS TIME...PRECIP WATER VALUES NOT
EXCESSIVE.

AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY AND THEN PASSES NORTH
OF THE REGION SUNDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME GETS SHUNTED TO THE
EAST AND WILL RETURN THE AREA TO THE NORMAL DIURNAL...MAINLY
TERRAIN-FOCUSED...CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY IN THE
IMMEDIATE WAKE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. GFS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST
ANOTHER INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG A KCNY TO KLXV LINE THROUGH 10Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST HROUGH 18Z. DAYTIME HEATING WORKING ON LINGERING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM 18Z THROUGH 03Z/WED. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER AIRPORTS FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ITS UNLIKELY THAT CIGS WILL DROP
BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS...HOWEVER ...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30 TO 35
MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...NL



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