Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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702
FXUS63 KGRR 302257
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
657 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 313 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2016

A frontal system will push through the area tonight. This front will
bring a little bit of much needed rainfall to the area. A
thunderstorm is possible, however severe weather is not expected.

Rain will move out of the area early Friday morning, with clouds
clearing out through the day. Cooler air will settle in for Friday
and Saturday. Temperatures will become warmer the latter portion of
the holiday weekend, and even warmer next week. Conditions will be
mainly dry through much of next week after the rain tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 313 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Our only weather of note continues to be for the tonight period with
the cold front pressing through the area. Models are in good
agreement in bringing measurable rainfall to the area. The diurnal
convection along the front will be on the wane after sunset before
it arrives in Lower Michigan.

We expect that a strengthening low level jet to over 30 knots will
develop additional showers and an embedded storm. This will be
supported by general upper level divergence from coupled jets, one
over Ern Ontario, and the other across Mn and IA. A nice associated
short wave will also be coming in at that time. Instability is still
expected to be weak, so severe threat is very limited. Heavy rain
potential is limited also with the front and rainfall expected to be
fairly progressive.

Clouds will linger first thing Fri morning, but should clear out
through the day as N/NW flow bring in another surge of drier air to
the area. The rest of the short term will see confluent flow aloft
bring subsidence to the area. Temperatures aloft will gradually
warm, leading to a few degrees of warmth each day after bottoming
out on Fri.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2016

A warming trend is expected through the long term periods, becoming
quite warm by the middle of next week.  Rain chances appear to be
very low, continuing the dry period.

Early into the extended period we will still see northwest upper
flow over the Great Lakes keeping temps near normal through the
holiday weekend, in the upper 70s to mid 80s.  But as we approach
mid week an upper ridge will develop over the middle of the nation,
with heat building up under the dome. This ridge and heat dome will
build toward MI into Wed/Thu with H8 temps reaching +21C.  Daytime
temps should be pushing toward or into the 90s by then.

As for rain chances, they remain low.  A weak upper and surface low
will pass to our south over the Ohio valley on the 4th of July.  A
few random showers or storms could reach as far north of I-96 where
20 pops will be carried.  Then some models show a couple of northern
stream short waves riding over the ridge Wed and Thu.  Feel the
ridge will remain dominate, but have more 20 pops in this time frame
to account for the possible upper waves triggering some isolated
storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 654 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2016

The pattern still supports a band of showers with embedded
thunderstorms to pass through the TAF sites in Southwest Lower MI
later this evening. Given the dry airmass in place...conditions
will only gradually lower to MVFR. Some patches of IFR are
possible.

A sharp wind shift will occur on the backside of this system later
tonight. MVFR clouds are forecasted to prevail on the backside of
this system. Conditions will gradually improve as we go through
the day on Friday and a drier airmass works its way in from the
Northwest.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 313 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement will remain as is
with the forecast cycle. Winds will pick up tonight behind the
front, and peak Friday afternoon from North to South. Conditions
will then improve Friday evening.

The remainder of the holiday weekend is then expected to remain
headline free for marine interests. Winds are expected to mostly
remain 15 knots or less.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 313 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2016

We are expecting to see temporary relief of the fire danger
conditions in the short term with some rain likely at most areas
tonight. Around a quarter of an inch or rain will moisten things up
for a day or two.

We will see temps increase next week to very warm to hot levels.
With little rain expected next week, fire danger may tend to
increase quite a bit and approach very high to extreme levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Generally dry conditions are expected to continue through the next
several days. Albeit minor, tonight`s rainfall will provide some
relief. South Central Lower Michigan may be less fortunate with
rainfall totals only between 0.10-0.20 of an inch. Amounts
increase to the northwest, possibly totaling around 0.30 of an
inch from Muskegon to Newaygo and Mount Pleasant. The upcoming 4th
of July weekend includes more sunshine and moderating
temperatures, quickly drying things out once again.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from midnight EDT tonight through Friday
     evening for MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight EDT
     Friday night for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MJS
FIRE WEATHER...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ



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