Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KGRR 052025 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 325 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 LATEST UPDATE... SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 254 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN IOWA WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CREATE SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY FOR WEST CENTRAL PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS FLOW WILL ALSO SUPPORT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO SUNDAY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. A COOLING TREND WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEAK AS THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 254 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 AT THIS TIME I DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN LIMITATION WILL BE THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO SUPPORT MORE IN THE WAY OF WET ROADS RATHER THAN SNOW COVERED THROUGH SUNDAY. ONE WEAK 700 MB WAVE TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MI TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF IT MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS UP AROUND LUDINGTON. ONLY CHANCE OR LESS POPS ELSEWHERE. A DIGGING MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT DOES SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MAINLY LATER SUNDAY. A DRY SLOT IS SHOWN TO MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LAGGING WEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. IF THE OVERALL SYSTEM SPEEDS UP...WE COULD SEE STEADIER PRECIPITATION MOVING IN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 254 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 A STRONG CLIPPER MOVING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY WILL DRAW DOWN SOME ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE/LL SEE SEVERAL DAYS OF SNOW SHOWERS NEXT WEEK AN ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE. MONDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE LEAST SNOWY DAY DUE TO SOME WARMER AIR OVER THE CWA AND THE LOW OVERHEAD. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WON/T BE CONDUCIVE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT THAT WILL CHANGE BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE LIGHT SNOW. THEN THE ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN BEGINNING TUESDAY. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES. H8 TEMPS FROM -8C TUESDAY MORNING TO -20C BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL FALL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THE DGZ WILL REMAIN SATURATED. GIVEN THE HIGH INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE WE/LL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERALL...WE BOOSTED POPS WAY ABOVE GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OVERALL SNOW POTENTIAL. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WHEN TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 20S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1239 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING MAINLY GRAND RAPIDS BUT MAY CLIP KALAMAZOO AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD 00Z LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 254 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 OVERALL TRENDS ARE FOR WEAKER WINDS AND LOWER WAVES LATER TONIGHT. MARGINAL SETUP FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED...AND IF TRENDS CONTINUE...WE MAY NOT NEED HEADLINES. WILL NOT ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE LIMITED CONFIDENCE. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 1134 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 THE GRAND RIVER AT IONIA AND MAPLE RIVER NEAR MAPLE RAPIDS ARE THE ONLY RIVERS CURRENTLY OUT OF THEIR BANKS. BOTH ARE AT OR NEAR THEIR CRESTS AND WILL SLOWLY RECEDE INTO NEXT WEEK. NO OTHER RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED BANKFULL AT THIS TIME. MOST RIVER CHANNELS ARE FREE OF ICE... BUT COLDER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK MAY LEAD TO ICE REDEVELOPMENT AND THUS WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR RIVER LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJS SHORT TERM...MJS LONG TERM...04 AVIATION...04 HYDROLOGY...CAS MARINE...MJS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.