Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000 FXUS63 KGRR 241755 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 155 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 LATEST UPDATE... Aviation .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 320 EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 High pressure building into Lower Michigan should bring fair and cool weather today and Tuesday. Low pressure moving in from the west on Wednesday will bring wet weather Wednesday and Wednesday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1053 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 Lake clouds and sprinkles will gradually erode into the afternoon as drier air moves in. We will also see warming aloft, further helping to erode the clouds. Expect most areas becoming mostly sunny between 16-20Z. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 320 EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 Primary forecast issue is for p-type Wednesday across the northern zones as thermal profiles show possibility of frozen precip reaching the ground. Low pressure center tracking across the central Plains will bring an area of overrunning precip into Lower Michigan Wednesday morning with cold sfc high centered south of James Bay providing an easterly flow of cold dry air. Model soundings show wet bulb zero less than 1000 feet AGL much of Wednesday. Some frozen precip is possible, especially across the high ground of Osceola County, but even there, skin temps will probably be too warm for any accums. This is something we will have to watch, though. For today...Will keep slight chance POPs going this morning across the far northern zones per current radar trends which show lake enhanced rain showers across the U.P. and northern Lower Michigan. Sfc ridging and some subsidence should bring an end to the showers by afternoon. Tonight and Tuesday night look frosty but the growing season is over, so no frost/freeze headlines will be issued. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 320 EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 Forecast concerns deal with he movement of low pressure across the cwa Wednesday night/Thursday and the potential for more pcpn over the weekend. For several days, the models have been advertising a strengthening low pressure system moving from the Plains across the southern Great Lakes midweek. The 00z version of the ecmwf and gfs are in pretty good agreement showing the low crossing southern Lower Michigan/Northern Indiana Wednesday night and moving out of the state Thursday. We`re likely to see a fairly steady and cold rain Wednesday night and we have high pops to cover that. Thermal profiles suggest that we may see some wet snow mix in with the rain over the far northern cwa Wednesday night and we added this to the grids. Don`t think we`ll see any accumulation at this point as the ground is still fairly warm, but sfc temps are expected to fall to near freezing Wednesday night. The weekend system looks like a clipper type system that will generate some light rain Friday night and end Saturday morning. Another shot of cooler air will follow the clipper and highs Sunday will likely top out around 50...several degrees below normal. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 155 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 High confidence for VFR conditions at all terminals through 12Z Tuesday. There have been sprinkles reported at HTL and MBS, but expect this to remain north and east of the terminals this afternoon. VFR cigs will gradually erode this afternoon, leaving scattered and possibly broken layers above 10000 ft AGL overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1053 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 Will extend the small craft advisory headline through 8 PM this evening. North northwest winds will only slowly diminish today and waves are not expected to lower until the evening hours. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 No significant hydro impacts are expected over the next week. Widespread rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday. Rainfall totals between 0.50-1.00 inch are expected, which will result in river rises late in the week into next weekend. Mostly within bank rises are expected. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...JK SYNOPSIS...Ostuno SHORT TERM...Ostuno LONG TERM...04 AVIATION...TJT HYDROLOGY...EBW MARINE...JK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.