Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000 FXUS63 KGRR 280729 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 329 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 LATEST UPDATE... SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING SOME RAIN BY EVENING. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY BEFORE FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER MOVES IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR A SLOWER ARRIVAL. WE HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING THE BULK OF THE RAIN THROUGH ON SATURDAY. HI RES MODELS SHOW A DIURNAL WEAKENING TREND TODAY WITH THE CONVECTION OVER IOWA ATTM AS IT MOVES EAST AND WE DONT EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION WITH WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED INSTABILITY BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SLOW CLEARING TREND BEGINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST AND HEIGHTS RISE BY SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 HOT AND DRY. THE ECMWF/GFS/FIM ALL AGREE THAT HEAT WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SHORT WAVES WILL BE PUSHED WELL NORTHWEST OF THE THE CWA LEADING TO GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH A DECENT CAP IN PLACE. SO EVEN THOUGH HUMIDITY WILL RISE AS SOUTH FLOW ADVECTS 60S DEWPOINTS INTO THE CWA RESULTING IN INCREASED AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF A KICKER TO GET ANYTHING GOING. IT/S POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP WED/THU AFTERNOON ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. LATEST ECMWF ALSO HINTS AT A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE UPPER PART OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY WHICH MAY HELP TO GENERATE A STORM. HIGHS WILL SETTLE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE RIDGING IN PLACE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AIR QUALITY ALERTS ISSUED. WE/LL KEEP AN EYE ON THAT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 SOME FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM OVERNIGHT, BUT PROBABLY WON/T RESTRICT VISIBILITIES AS MUCH AS LAST NIGHT. VSBYS WILL RISE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BLO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. MUCH OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE UNDER AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER COULD SEE HEAVIER RAINS. AT THIS POINT RIVER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN LOW INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO SHORT TERM...OSTUNO LONG TERM...04 AVIATION...04 HYDROLOGY...63/JK MARINE...OSTUNO

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