Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000 FXUS63 KGRR 172029 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 330 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 LATEST UPDATE... Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 A couple of days of dry weather are coming up before rain chances increase again. Warmer weather is in the offing too as temperatures head toward 50 by the weekend. The next surge of colder air will arrive toward the end of next week. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 Forecast concerns are minimal and focus on pcpn chances tonight and again Thursday night. Local radar shows a few small areas of drizzle or light showers falling over the central cwa. Otherwise, stratus and fog are covering southwest Lower. Latest water vapor imagery shows a compact short wave on near the MN/WI/IA borders. This wave will moving across southern Lake Michigan tonight. We included the mention of light drizzle and fog, mostly over the southern cwa, to account for this. Wednesday will be mostly cloudy and dry. Ridging aloft and at the sfc will erode the clouds during the day and we may see some sun late. A wave will move north from the Gulf Thursday and Thursday night. We may see some light rain develop over the far southern cwa late Thursday night, but chances are low. We`ll see a steady climb in the temperatures over the next few days with highs in the mid to upper 30s Wednesday and lower to mid 40s Thursday. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 Overall the long term looks to be a mild period, although the ECWMF hints at a cooling trend into next Tuesday. Highs are forecast to be in the 40s and 50s which is well above the normal highs that are near the freezing mark. The long term period looks to be on the damp side as well (rain), as we will be in an active pattern. Two upper shortwave troughs affect our region with clouds and rain before an upper low moves south of our area early next week. All of these features move our direction from the southern stream, or out of the southwest U.S. The first upper shortwave trough moves through our area on Friday, followed by another which stays just west of the area for Saturday. A deeper system moves through the Ohio Valley on Monday and Tuesday. Have chances for rain in much of the extended period with highest pops for next Monday. So, the bottom line is mild with periods of rain. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1157 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 We are looking at an extended period of LIFR/VLIFR conditions for most of the next 24 hour period at all of the terminals. These conditions are currently in place, and they extend back upstream across Wisconsin and beyond. Some slight improvement is occurring across the I-94 corridor with a bit more of a wind there on the srn periphery of the low. This will likely persist until this evening when winds will diminish again. The ceilings and visibilities will drop at that point again. There will only be slight improvement toward the end of this fcst period as high pressure starts to build in and we get some diurnal mixing taking place. Better improvement in the conditions will likely take place after 18z Wed. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 The high building in behind the departing low isn`t all that strong and so the pressure gradient between the two is weak as well. That means winds and waves below small craft advisory criteria for the next couple of days. Winds will, however, increase Wednesday night into the 10 to 20 knot range pushing waves to 2 to 4 feet. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 151 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 Monday to Tuesday rain totaled 0.5 to 1.25 inches across the area. Runoff into already swollen rivers will be efficient due to frozen and saturated soil. Fortunately, warmer temperatures the rest of the week will allow ice to melt and should eventually alleviate the flooding situation at Robinson Township. The Looking Glass river near Eagle and the Maple River near Maple Rapids are being monitored for rises to Minor Flood Stage. Several other rivers above bankfull are expected to rise but should have less significant impacts to property. The next chances for rain will be Friday and early next week. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...04 SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...Duke AVIATION...NJJ HYDROLOGY...CAS MARINE...04

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