Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000 FXUS63 KGRR 022229 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 629 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. IT WILL BE A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTERIOR SECTION OF THE LOWER PENINSULA. OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL COME IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A COOL AND SHOWERY REGIME WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FORECAST TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH WITH THE FRONT. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PRESSING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA AROUND 00Z TUESDAY EVENING. JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF THUNDER...WITH SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE 850MB LI/S AND A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE INDICATING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING CLOSE TO SEVERE GIVEN THE LOW INSTABILITY. POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGEST OF CELLS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERHEAD. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY CONTAIN THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OF THE TWO PERIODS GIVEN A DIURNAL BOOST TO THE ACTIVITY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 131. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SINKING SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY THURSDAY. WE STILL MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE SE CWA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THESE SHOULD PULL AWAY BY MID DAY. THE EXIT OF THE UPPER LOW OPENS THE DOOR TO AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD IN...RESULTING IN WARMER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE 70 TO 75...BUT COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. THE RIDGE IS NOT ALLOWED TO FULLY BUILD INTO THE REGION HOWEVER...AS A JAMES BAY VORTEX BRINGS A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE GOOD TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET UNSTABLE BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. CAN NOT RULE OUT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE FRONT BRINGS IN COOLER WEATHER...BUT IT APPEARS ONLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT WE MAY SEE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP BY MONDAY. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 629 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE VFR CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT AND VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. WSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH MKG BY EARLY EVENING TUESDAY.
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&& .MARINE... ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY. WAVES WILL BE NEARLY FLAT MUCH OF THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO RAMP UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE...BUT GIVEN IT IS A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME SOME OF THIS WILL NOT MIX TO THE SURFACE. THE MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN IS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS STRONG NORTH COLD AIR ADVECTION WINDS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A LOW. WINDS COULD HIT GALE FORCE AND WE WILL NEED AT LEAST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. GIVEN THIS IS OUT IN THE FORTH PERIOD OF THE FORECAST AND BEYOND HOLDING OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG SYCAMORE CREEK NEAR HOLT BY THIS EVENING. SYCAMORE CREEK CONTINUES TO RISE AND IS APPROACHING BANKFULL. AT BANKFULL... FLOODING ALSO BEGINS AT THE LANSING MUNICIPAL GOLF COURSE AND SCOTT WOODS PARK. THE GRAND RIVER AT IONIA MAY ALSO APPROACH BANKFULL TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE LIGHT IN NATURE. RAINFALL TOTALS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. BUT RIVER LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT... SO RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DUKE SHORT TERM...DUKE LONG TERM...JK AVIATION...JK HYDROLOGY...EBW MARINE...DUKE

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