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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KGRR 182319
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
719 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST INTO FRIDAY. IT WILL
BE A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BY JUNE STANDARDS WITH SOME PATCHY FROST
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY WITH 70S ON WEDNESDAY WARMING TO 80 THURSDAY AND THE LOW
80S ON FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 80S NEXT WEEKEND WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

LIMITED CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT. HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. CARRIED SOME
PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE TRADITIONALLY COLDER AREAS OF CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN TONIGHT DUE TO DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT TO SEE SOME
30S SHOW UP IN THE FAR NORTH LIKE BALDWIN AND LEOTA TOMORROW
MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AND
COOL LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. SOUTH FLOW THAT DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE WILL RESULT IN
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND HEAT LEADING TO MUGGY CONDITIONS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SHORT WAVE RIDING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE A SHOWER OR STORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BUT DUE TO A LACK OF
MOISTURE RETURN AT THAT POINT I/M NOT CONFIDENT WE/LL SEE MUCH. A
BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL BE SATURDAY WHEN A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH THROUGH THE CWA.

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NW WISCONSIN SOUTHWEST TO SRN
NEBRASKA WILL BE A FOCAL POINT FOR MORE STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. AS THOSE STORMS DRIFT EAST...WE/LL HAVE A CHANCE AT MORE
STORMS IN SW LWR MI...MOST LIKELY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS CAPITALIZING
ON DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES SUCH AS LAKE AND
OUTFLOW FROM PRIOR CONVECTION.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S THIS WEEKEND. WHEN COMBINED WITH
EXPECTED DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...THE AIR WILL FEEL QUITE MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE THROUGH 02Z.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

WAVES CURRENTLY ARE UP NEAR THE POINTS AND IN THE FAR SOUTH. 2
FOOTERS ARE NOTED AT THE MID LAKE BUOY...1.3 FOOTERS AT THE PORT
SHELDON BUOY WITH AN OFF SHORE FLOW...3.0 FOOTERS AT THE LUDINGTON
BUOY AND 4.6 FOOTERS AT MICHIGAN CITY.

THE NORTHERLY/OFF SHORE FLOW IS KEEPING THE HIGHEST WAVES OFF SHORE
AND OFF THE BEACHES. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE LIMITED WAVE
ACTION AT LEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

OVERALL...LIMITED HYDRO CONCERNS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. TWO RIVER
ADVISORIES REMAIN...AT IONIA AND HASTINGS. BASED ON THE CURRENT
TRENDS AND FORECASTS...BOTH SHOULD FALL BACK WITHIN BANK OR BELOW
ADVISORY STAGE IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS IN THE GRAND
RIVER BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE FROM RECENT RAINS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE