Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KGRR 281005 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 605 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016 LATEST UPDATE... Aviation .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016 A northerly flow of cooler air will prevail today here in Michigan as low pressure pulls off to the east. There could even be some light rain showers...mainly early in the day. Tonight the clouds will thin out leading to a much cooler than normal night. High pressure tracks from the Upper Plains to the Ohio Valley by Thursday. This fair weather system will act to provide the area with generally dry weather for Wednesday and Thursday. Another cold front arrives for Thursday Night into Friday. && .SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Today through Thursday) Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016 The main challenge deals with the potential for rain showers on Thursday. For now...it looks like the trend is for a slower arrival of the precipitation. Models have trended slower with the arrival of the precipitation for Thursday. Forecast soundings also suggest the risk for thunderstorms will hold off until at least 00z Fri. The GFS does develop some instability Thursday...but the low level dewpoint lapse rate looks unreasonably...featuring too high values. In addition...an inversion is shown just above 700 mb. Thus it looks like if we do end up with some instability during the day...any rising parcels will have to push through a layer of subsidence. The forecast soundings for Thursday also have an overall dry look to them. Thus...will feature a dry day for nearly the entire forecast area on Thursday. Will hold onto a small potential for light rain showers today for most locations. The models are suggesting the area of light rain showers over northeast Lower Michigan will pivot south and could clip mainly the area east of a Big Rapids to Kalamazoo line. Cooler than normal temperatures will prevail today and into tonight. Perhaps some 30s up around Leota in Clare county are possible given the cooler than normal airmass in place along with a good radiational cooling night. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016 A cold front will bring scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms Thursday night into early Friday. Only weak instability will develop along and just ahead of the front and moisture is somewhat limited. Most locations will likely only receive around a quarter of an inch or less of rainfall. The overall dry weather pattern will continue through the vast majority of the long range fcst period with dry conditions expected Friday afternoon through Monday with high pressure in control of the pattern over the Great Lakes region. Temperatures will average slightly below normal behind the front Friday before moderating through the weekend into early next week. High temperatures should reach well into the 80s by early next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 602 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016 Lower clouds...mainly mvfr will be around especially this morning. Some sprinkles could occur. This afternoon...clearing conditions are forecasted as a drier airmass filters in from the north.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016 Conditions to remain favorable for hazardous boating and swimming conditions today. Winds and waves will slowly subside from north to south later this afternoon and evening as the pressure gradient weakens. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 223 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016 Slight uptick in river levels near Scottville and Whitehall from Sunday`s 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain, and they are far from any flood threat. The next best chance of rain will be late Thursday into Friday. Amounts do not look substantial enough to even put a dent in the recent dry weather. && .GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
-- Changed Discussion --
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for MIZ037-043-050- 056-064-071. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ848-849. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>847.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MJS SHORT TERM...MJS LONG TERM...Laurens AVIATION...MJS HYDROLOGY...CAS MARINE...MJS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.