Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000 FXUS63 KGRR 302309 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 709 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 LATEST UPDATE... Aviation .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 322 PM EDT Mon May 30 2016 The pleasant weather will continue tonight through Tuesday night with comfortable temperatures and humidity, along with dry conditions. Showers and storms will return for Wednesday and Wednesday night. A few for these storms could be strong. Mostly dry weather should move back in for Thursday and Friday, but there appears to be another good chance for rain into the weekend. Daytime temperatures will remain in the mid 70s to lower 80s Tuesday through Saturday, but then it should become cooler for Sunday and Monday. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 322 PM EDT Mon May 30 2016 The mid week system will be moving in slower than expected as it runs into the ridge over the eastern U.S. Will back off on rain chances for Tuesday night, with the bulk of the weather arriving Wednesday, then exiting late Wednesday night. Surface high pressure will continue to bring fair weather to the region along with pleasant temps and humidity. It will begin to move to our east by Tuesday, but will still just be over Lake Huron by the end of the day, and to Lake Ontario by daybreak Wednesday. This shift east will help reduce the subsidence and allow mid/hi clouds to move in by Tuesday afternoon. But the easterly flow around the high will keep the low levels dry until Wednesday. With minimal instability expected, we no longer expect measurable pcpn for Tuesday night. We could see a few sprinkles come from the mid deck at best. Wednesday and Wednesday night will bring a return to a chance of showers and storms. A slow moving surface cold front will only be moving into Western WI early in the day and this front will not reach the CWA until Wed evening. So the day should start out with some sun, but a solid pool of low level moisture arrives later in the day as the front approaches. Storms will be likely, but severe weather should remain minimal. Instability does not appear to be too great as the front moves into mid and upper 50s dew points over the area. A low level jet moves NE across WI Tuesday night, but it is up into Ontario by Wednesday. Our storms will have the right entrance region of the upper jet to work with. This feature comes through late afternoon into the evening, when some stronger storms will be possible. The convective nature of the pcpn will cause variable rain totals, but generally most areas should see a quarter to half inch by daybreak Thursday. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 322 PM EDT Mon May 30 2016 The last vestiges of the rain on Wednesday night will be moving out at the beginning of the long term period Thursday morning. The cold front will just be exiting the far SE corner of the CWFA at that time. The upper flow will remain anti-cyclonic and a sfc ridge axis will then build in across the state. This should hold through Friday, and allow for cooler and dry conditions to be the rule. We will see even cooler, and unsettled weather move in for next weekend and early next week. Models and their ensemble means are in good agreement in bringing lower heights across the area for that time frame. We will see a couple of stronger short wave troughs dive SE into the Great Lakes region. This will result in chcs of rain showers at times and max temps struggling to reach 70. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 707 PM EDT Mon May 30 2016 Favorable conditions for aviators are expected through this TAF period. Winds should be held under 10 knots at all locations with some increasing high cloud cover Tuesday evening. Perhaps a few cu around 5k ft are possible Tuesday afternoon, though forecast soundings generally do not support development.
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&& .MARINE... Issued at 322 PM EDT Mon May 30 2016 A rather quiet period is expected on the lake through the short term, with one exception. Southerly winds ahead of Wednesday`s front should cause rough conditions around the points into Wednesday afternoon. At this point it appears this will remain below small craft criteria however. Until then, winds will generally remain under 15 knots and mainly a southeasterly offshore flow. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 211 PM EDT Mon May 30 2016 River levels are currently stable and near normal for this time of year. No significant flooding or precipitation events are expected this week. Total basin-average rainfall Wednesday afternoon into Thursday will likely be less than 0.75 inches. This would result in only minor rises on area rivers. && .GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MI...None. LM...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JK SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM...NJJ AVIATION...Hoving HYDROLOGY...EBW MARINE...JK

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