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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KGRR 061149
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
649 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

A RELATIVELY INACTIVE PATTERN BEGINS TO SET IN OVER THE NEXT WEEK. DEEP
COLD WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A FEW UNIMPRESSIVE CLIPPER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THAT MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRY ACTIVITY. THIS SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THERES NOT MUCH TO BE CONCERNED WITH IN THE NEAR TERM WITH ONLY A
COUPLE OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED GOING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

A FEW FLURRIES CAN BE ANTICIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF GRAND RAPIDS. THIS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES...NOT MUCH MOISTURE IS TO BE FOUND IN THE
VERTICAL PROFILE AS THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR ALOFT. WHAT IS NEAR
THE SURFACE BEGINS TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FROM
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL
ALSO BEGIN TO RAMP UP THROUGH MID MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MILE PER HOUR BEING A GOOD BET. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING
THROUGH LATER TODAY AND COULD THICKEN THE CLOUDS BACK UP THIS
EVENING. A COUPLE OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT AGAIN...THERES JUST NOT MUCH THERE TO WORK WITH.

IT SEEMS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL COME
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FIRST ON SATURDAY MORNING WHERE A BIT OF
LIFT IS PRESENT IN THE DGZ AND A DGZ THAT FINALLY LIFTS OFF THE
GROUND. THAT SAID...THE DGZ IS NOT TOTALLY SATURATED EITHER SO THERE
ARE AGAIN SOME LIMITING FACTORS WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM AS WELL.
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW WILL MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY...BUT AS THE THEME
GOES THIS TOO IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ANYTHING EXCITING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

PRETTY QUIET IN THE EXTENDED WITH ONLY A WEAK CLIPPER COMING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW...AND AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH IMPACT TO THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. MILDER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY IN ZONAL FLOW
REGIME WITH THE POLAR JET RETREATING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHERE A
SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS JAMES BAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. LEFT DRY WEATHER GOING AS
THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN ON
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

A THIN LAYER OF STRATUS MOVING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL HAVE
CEILINGS OF 2000 TO 2500 FT AGL FROM MKG TOWARDS GRR EARLY THIS
MORNING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON WITH VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
MORNING WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

LOW ICE JAM POTENTIAL/FLOODING RISK OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

LATEST SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT ANALYSES INDICATE AROUND AN INCH OR TWO
IS CONTAINED WITHIN THE SNOWPACK INLAND WITH 2-4 INCHES OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. SWE VALUES OF 4+ INCHES ARE MOST
LIKELY IN THE WHITE AND PERE MARQUETTE RIVER BASINS.

A GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE LATEST MODELS ARE LESS BULLISH WITH THE WARM AIR.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SEEMS REASONABLE
WITH LOWS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. GIVEN THE MOSTLY DRY FORECAST
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...THIS COULD BE AN IDEAL FORECAST TO SLOWLY
MELT THE SNOWPACK AND CHIP AWAY AT ICE THICKNESS ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. RISES IN AREA RIVERS MOSTLY BELOW BANKFULL ARE EXPECTED
NEXT WEEK. A FEW SMALLER STREAMS COULD REACH ADVISORY
STAGE...ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND MARCH 11 INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
BUT THE MAJOR STEMS OF THE GRAND AND MUSKEGON RIVERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO EXCEED BANKFULL NEXT WEEK.

UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENTS CHANGE THE
DYNAMIC AND INCREASE THE RISK FOR FLOODING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAM
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...EBW