Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000 FXUS63 KGRR 292358 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 758 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS COULD BE RATHER WET AS SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BEHIND IT. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S DESPITE SUNSHINE. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF M-46 SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 70S BY TUESDAY AND 80S BY THURSDAY. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SO FAR IT/S BEEN LOW-TOPPED WITH LIMITED LIGHTNING. THE STRONGER CELLS ARE CLOSER TO ST LOUIS MO BUT ARE MOVING NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD SEE A GENERAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT BUT MORE SHOWERS THAN STORMS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND DISSIPATING ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LI/S NEAR -3 ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA ATTM COUPLED WITH 1K J/K SBCAPE BUT NOT MUCH TO FOCUS CONVECTION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL WITH HELP TO FOCUS PCPN LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR POST FRONTAL. A 300 MB JETLET SEEMS TO BE THE CAUSE OF THIS AS IT UNDERCUTS THE MAIN UPPER JET FARTHER NORTH. WE ALSO INCREASED POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY IN TEXAS MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WAVE WILL CAUSE MORE PCPN OVER THE SRN CWA. CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR SMALL ATTM DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD BE A BIT CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED. CANADIAN SFC HIGH MOVES EAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A MOIST RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY. DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ...THERE IS LITTLE TO FOCUS ANY CONVECTION AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INCLUDED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK AS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST THAT SLOWLY OPENS UP AND FILLS AND A COUPLE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THE SECOND TROUGH MAY FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK THAT WILL BRING SOME BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY PROVIDE BRIEF REDUCTIONS OF CIGS/VSBYS INTO MFR OR IFR CATEGORY FOR 15-30 MINS. LATER TONIGHT AFTER 06Z THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD IT BECOMES AND HOW LOW THE CIGS/VSBYS GO. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST SITES AFTER 09Z. FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY AS SFC FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE STATE AND LARGE AREA OF RAIN IMPACTS THE AREA. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY. LOOK FOR WAVES TO BUILD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 RIVER LEVELS RANGE FROM ABOVE NORMAL IN OUR NORTHERN HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA TO BELOW NORMAL SOUTHEAST. BASIN-AVERAGE RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING IS LIKELY TO BE AROUND A HALF TO THREE- QUARTERS INCH. PER NCRFC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE... BASIN-AVERAGE TOTALS OF ABOUT 2 INCHES WOULD BE NECESSARY TO PUSH SEVERAL OF THE MID- MICHIGAN RIVERS ABOVE BANKFULL. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...04 SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...OSTUNO AVIATION...MEADE HYDROLOGY...CAS MARINE...04

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