Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000 FXUS63 KGRR 310536 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 136 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014 ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THEN AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY MORNING THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW ON GRASSY AREAS. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE STRONG INTO FRIDAY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...AND 45 MPH INLAND. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY BUT COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY 40 TO 45. ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY...INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014 BASED ON RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS...THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE DELAYED A FEW HOURS TONIGHT. HIGH POPS STILL WARRANTED. INCOMING GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. CLOSE CALL FOR WARNING CRITERIA WINDS ON THE LAKESHORE. UPDATED FORECAST REFLECTS LOWER POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014 STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BE COMING INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING AS COLD ADVECTION POURS IN BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT. WILL BE HOISTING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AS TREE LIMBS COULD COME DOWN ALONG WITH ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN WITH THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CUT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ENHANCED BY THE LAKE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS H8 TEMPS DIP TO AROUND -4C BY 12Z FRI. EXPECT A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY AS H8 TEMPS CONTINUE DOWNWARD TOWARD -8C BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEFORMATION ZONE COMING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD COME IN AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT AS THE PCPN INTENSIFIES EXPECT IT TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER AS WINDS PIVOT TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST. A QUICK BURST OF SNOW WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE MAY PUT DOWN UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW. THE FAVORED AREAS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 10 REGION. AND ALSO OVER THE SE CWA AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. THE SE CWA MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT COMING OFF OF LAKE HURON FRIDAY NIGHT. AS FOR THE WIND...MIXING SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY. WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. IT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER INLAND...BUT IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH US INTO ADVISORY LEVELS. THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014 UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM FRIDAY/S ACTIVE WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AID IN A COLD NIGHT...WHERE LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S IN MANY AREAS. THE FAR NORTHEAST UP TOWARDS CLARE WILL SEE LOWS AROUND 20. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CREST THE RIDGE ACROSS CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK...PUSHING A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE IN THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SECONDARY LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH AROUND 40 DEGREES WHICH WILL BE 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. READINGS WILL PUSH BACK TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S EACH DAY. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS ARE PROGRESSING SE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. LOWER CIGS WILL FORM OVERHEAD WITH THE COLDER AIR COMING IN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS AROUND THE AREA WITH CIGS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND THE LOW END OF MVFR THROUGH 12Z. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW WITH SHOWERS AROUND. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND WILL GUST WELL INTO THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE THROUGH SUNSET TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL THEN MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON FOR A FEW HOURS. SHOWERS SHOULD THEN MOVE OUT AT MOST LOCATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR AND THEN CLEAR OUT WITH THE NORTH WIND AND LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY.
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&& .MARINE... ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014 CLOSE CALL FOR STORM CRITERIA WINDS. STILL A LOT OF GUIDANCE COMING IN. THIS SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH MAKES ADDS TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH END GALE. AS FOR THE TIMING....STILL LOOKS LIKE CLOSE TO 8 AM FOR THE START OF THE GALE FORCE WINDS. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014 NO HYDRO ISSUES EXPECTED...THE PERIOD OF PCPN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AROUND A QUARTER INCH. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074. LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
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&& $$ UPDATE...MJS SYNOPSIS...JK SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM...DUKE AVIATION...NJJ HYDROLOGY...JK MARINE...MJS

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