Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000 FXUS63 KGRR 240422 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1222 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 LATEST UPDATE... Aviation .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 Hot and humid weather will continue through the weekend into early next week. A cold front will bring a chance of showers Wednesday and a stronger cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms with much cooler air late in the week. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 Sfc/upper ridging and persistent south to sw flow waa will result in a continuation of unseasonably hot and humid wx through the short term fcst period. High temps Sunday will again reach the upper 80`s to lower 90`s with a couple of mid 90`s maxes possible once again at typically hottest/driest locations from KGRR/KLAN off to the south. Heat indices Sunday afternoon will once again reach well into the 90`s. Large scale subsidence and lack of a forcing mechanism for convective initiation to occur should result in persistent dry conditions through the short term fcst period. A cu field has developed mainly north of I-96 and near to east of US-131 and it is not completely impossible that an isolated shower may develop near KMOP late this aftn when instability will be maximized. Therefore I added mention of isolated showers to the fcst late aftn/early eve over our far ne fcst area. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 Confidence remains high that a sharp cool down will take place at the end of next week. However prospects are not looking good for any widespread appreciable rainfall. Looks like the drought continues. Guidance is similar in showing the first cold frontal passage on Tuesday night/early Wednesday although this feature comes through mostly dry due to limited moisture/upper support and unfavorable timing of the frontal passage. Actually Wednesday and Thursday should be pleasant days with lower dew points behind the sfc front but temps still a bit above normal. Perhaps a better risk of rain showers arrives for late Thursday night into Friday with the main push of cold air and arrival of the upper trough. However there is not much support for lake effect/enhancement since the low level flow goes northerly once the coldest air comes in and sfc ridging is already building in on Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1222 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Dewpoints have trended down over the past 24 hours, so the potential for late night/early morning fog seems less now. Left a bit of fog in the JXN TAF, otherwise vsbys should largely stay unrestricted. VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours with a light SSE wind at 8 knots or less. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 Wave heights will remain minimal at less than 2 feet through the rest of the weekend with south to southwest winds around 5 to 10 kts. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1131 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 Rivers are running around normal to below normal for the time of year. Meanwhile, the US Drought Monitor is indicating dry conditions across Southern Lower Michigan. Near-record warmth is expected today through Monday. The next good chance for rain is Wednesday. No river issues are expected through the week. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Laurens SHORT TERM...Laurens LONG TERM...Meade AVIATION...JK HYDROLOGY...63 MARINE...Laurens

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