Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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883 FXUS63 KGRR 251118 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 718 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 LATEST UPDATE... Aviation/Marine .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 315 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Wet weather will continue into early next week as low pressure slowly approaches Lower Michigan from the southwest. Temperatures will be held into the 40s today as clouds and showers become widespread. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 315 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Model continuity was good so few changes were made in the near term. Likely to categorical POPs through the period with some wavering in the coverage of showers as low center approaches. Temperature forecast is also fairly consistent to prior forecast as clouds and showers will prevent mixing today of shallow cold air that advected in Friday evening with low level northeast flow. Coolest conditions will be across the northeast forecast zones where maxes today will be hard pressed to get out of the 30s. Do not see any issues with freezing rain as sfc temps should remain above freezing. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 315 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 An unsettled and showery pattern will continue Monday night as a trough of low pressure continues to bring more showers. Low pressure over the Arklatex region will move northeast along a frontal boundary and perhaps bring more numerous showers to our southern fcst area Monday night. However a consensus of latest medium range guidance now suggests that the steadier pcpn Monday night into Tuesday will stay south of our fcst area across IN/OH. Dry weather will finally return Tuesday through midweek as a high pressure ridge builds in from the north. The next low pressure system will bring a chance of showers as early as late Wednesday night with a better chance for rain Thursday through Friday as a southern Plains low pressure system moves northeast into the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. Temperatures will return to near normal for this time of year through the long range forecast period. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 717 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Widespread IFR and areas of LIFR conditions expected through Sunday morning with low clouds and rain reducing visibility blo 2 miles. East winds around 10 knots with some gusts to 20 knots at times today. && .MARINE... Issued at 717 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions today and tonight. Decided to cut back the end time of the SCA to 5 AM to match up better with advisory to the north. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1241 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 A wet pattern will continue through much of the next seven days with multiple rain events taking place. Rainfall totals over the next week will generally be in the 0.75 to 1.50 inch range. This will result in rises on area rivers with some area rivers reaching bankfull starting late this weekend and continuing at bankfull potentially through the end of next week. Significant river flooding is not anticipated with the amount of rainfall that is expected over the next week. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ844>849. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Ostuno SHORT TERM...Ostuno LONG TERM...Laurens AVIATION...Ostuno HYDROLOGY...Maczko MARINE...Ostuno

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