Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 281749
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
149 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will push slowly across the area today. Weak high
pressure should build in from the north for the middle to latter
part of the week. Another cold front is expected to push into the
area over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS of 145 PM EDT... Prefrontal trough has moved through our much of
our forecast area, although those areas mainly south of I85 are
still dealing with showers/thunderstorms along a surface convergence axis,
deep moisture and enhanced left exit region of jet-let. We will keep
those pops going, and there may be a brief push back to the north.

Also with the primary front still off in the mountains, and
dewpoints elevated, surface based capes have risen to over 1000
J/KG. As a result we will be reflecting isolated coverage
potentially redeveloping as the day wears on.

Once all of the precipitation settles down this evening, patchy fog
may be noted across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 AM Tuesday, a weak surface boundary will remain stalled
just south and east of the CWFA through the period. A series of weak
waves will move along the front which will help keep a moist low
level easterly flow over the area. With afternoon heating, expect
weak instability to develop each afternoon. This will lead to
scattered diurnal convection near the boundary, with isolated
convection north and west of the boundary. Chance of severe storms
is low given the lack of shear and modest instability. However,
there will be a decent amount of DCAPE, so an isolated damaging
downburst cannot be ruled out. Highs Wednesday will be slightly
above normal then fall to right around normal on Thursday. Lows
follow the opposite pattern.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 325 AM Tuesday, Friday should be a similar day to Wednesday
and Thursday with the stalled boundary near the CWFA. Scattered to
isolated diurnal convection with temps slightly above normal.

A stronger more active cold front drops into the area from the NW on
Saturday and stalls across the area on Sunday. Waves of low pressure
move along the front keeping forcing and moisture over the area.
This will lead to increasing precip chances both days. The front
will sag south slightly on Monday, but a moist and unstable air mass
will remain over the area. Precip chances fall only slightly with
the southward movement of the front. Highs remain a little above
normal on Saturday, but fall to right around normal for Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT: A very moisture atmosphere is still in place with spotty
showers in and around the airfield. However, it appears the primary
thunderstorms activity will remain just south and east. This is
where the primary surface cape resides, although there is the
possibility of a brief push back to the north, when the secondary
cold front enters the picture later in the day. Otherwise we will
keep thunderstorms out of the airfield forecast with showers in
their vicinity but monitor closely

Elsewhere, at least temporarily most of the thunderstorms will be
impacting our south TAF sites this afternoon. Again there may be a
push back to the north ahead of the next wind shift. Also surface
based cape is building back across the mountains, therefore the
placement of late day storms may be warranted there..

Outlook: Diurnally favored shra/tsra will return mid/late week.
Flight restrictions will be possible during any TSRA. In addition,
morning fog maybe possible over areas of recent rainfall.

Confidence Table...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     Med   76%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  83%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/TS
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG/TS


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