Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000 FXUS62 KGSP 250738 AFDGSP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 338 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY SETTLE OVER THE REGION DURING THE LATE WORK WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 315 AM...POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIG A 500 MB LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST STATES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH LARGE RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS STATES WILL TURN THE FLOW NW AND INCREASE ATOP THE CWFA...AND HELP DROP A DRY/WEAK SFC FRONT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY TODAY...SO EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND A RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPS FROM COOL EARLY MORNING LOWS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND LOWER MTN VALLEYS...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. TONIGHT...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK FRONT...A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE NC MTNS WITHIN NWLY FLOW. AN OUTSIDE CHC OF A LIGHT ISOLD SHOWER BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE NRN MTNS. BUT IF ANYTHING...MAINLY PATCHY SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. I WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC MENTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT IN THE NRN MTNS. THE REST OF THE CWFA WILL LIKELY JUST EXPERIENCE A WIND SHIFT FROM SW BACK TO NW. WITH WARMER AFTN HIGHS...AND INCREASED/LINGERING MIXING OVERNIGHT...MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN LAST FEW NIGHTS...MAINLY IN THE 40S IN THE MTNS AND UPR 40S TO LWR 50S PIEDMONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 315 AM SAT...ON SUNDAY...BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...H85 FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND HEIGHT RISES SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH THE DAY...MARGINAL GUST POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...PROVIDING RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. THE H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL PIVOT OVER THE REGION...WITH THE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS BY 0Z TUES. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO L80S EAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 325 AM SAT...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM 4 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON WED. THE COMBINATION OF DEEPENING MOISTURE AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...0Z GFS INDICATES THAT A DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROF WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION. I WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER DURING THE LATE WORK WEEK...KEEPING POPS GENERALLY IN THE SCHC RANGE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z SUN AT ALL TERMINALS. SKC AND CALM TO LIGHT NW/NE WINDS THRU THIS MORNING. CONTINUED SKC OR FEW250...WITH A LIGHT SW/WSW BY EARLY AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE MTNS THIS EVENING...WITH SOME VERY SHALLOW LLVL MOISTURE BANKING UP AGAINST THE NC MTNS IN NWLY FLOW. SOME OF THE CLOUDS MAY REACH KAVL. GUIDANCE HAS THIS AT VFR LVL...BUT THE CLOUDS MAY BE LOWER. OUTLOOK...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER AND A LOW PROBABILITY OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050- 053-501-503-505. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CSH/NED NEAR TERM...ARK SHORT TERM...NED LONG TERM...NED AVIATION...ARK

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