Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000 FXUS62 KGSP 020545 AFDGSP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 145 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AN KEEP A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1 AM MONDAY MORNING...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHORTLY EXIT THE CWA EASTWARD WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS UPSTREAM. PER CAM MODEL GUIDANCE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL REDEVELOPMENT/INITIATION MONDAY AFTERNOON IN AN ENVIRONMENT SIMILAR TO THE LAST 2 DAYS WITH CAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20 TO 35 KTS. HOWEVER...A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED BEFORE THEN. CURRENT PATTERN OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW MAINTAINING BL MOISTURE WITH FORCING FROM A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS TOMORROW 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH RELATIVELY HIGH RH. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 130 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE BROAD MODEL CONSENSUS DOES NOT LEAD TO MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING THINKING WITH RESPECT TO THE EXPECTED SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ATOP THE SE CONUS WILL CONTINUE THEIR STEADY LOWERING AND A BROAD WSW FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER REMAINS. DESPITE THE LACK OF ANY LARGER SCALE FORCING... SCATTERED DIURNAL ENHANCED TSTMS ARE STILL PROBABLE. THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM OF THE CWFA LEAVING US IN A RELATIVE LULL. ENERGY DUMBBELLING AROUND DEEPENING UPPER LOW MAY RESULT IN MTN SHOWERS BY WED NITE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 140 PM SUNDAY...GOOD CONFIDENCE IS HAD IN THE EXT RANGE FCST AS THE OP MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ULVL PATTERN AND THE SENSIBLE WX RESPONSE. THE GEFS MEMBERS ARE SHOWING LITTLE SPREAD OVER THE ERN CONUS UNTIL LATE FRIDAY...MAINLY DUE TO DEEPNESS DIFS WITH THE UPPER LOW. THE PATTERN STILL SUGGESTS A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK WITH THE ERN LOW DEEPENING AND DROPPING SE OFF THE ATL COAST INTO THE SAT TIME FRAME...THEN QUICKLY RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHOT OF LLVL MOISTURE TO THE FAR WRN MTNS EARLY THU...WHICH WILL QUICKLY WANE AFTER SUNRISE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF RESPONSE FROM THIS FEATURE. THINGS WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY AFTER THAT AS DEEP NW FLOW ENGULFS THE REGION AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF LOW THETA/E AIR MIXES IN. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES FRI BTW THE OP MODELS WITH AN EMBEDDED S/W CREATING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES...BUT GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THIS SITUATION EITHER. THE ATMOS WILL REMAIN RATHER STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO NO THUNDER WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS. OVERALL...THE PERIOD LOOKS TO PRETTY NICE FOR EARLY MAY WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDS...MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND PLEASANT TEMPS. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS BY A CAT OR SO ARE EXPECTED THU THRU SAT...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PROBABLE BY SUN AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS NEARS AND DEEP SUBS INCREASES. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AT KCLT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHORTLY LEAVE THE AREA. FURTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE VICINITY BEFORE THEN. MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND OF AROUND 10KT. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND SHOWER/AFTERNOON THUNDER ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. CLOUDS MAY HAVE CEILINGS DOWN TO IFR LEVELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED FOR THE TIME BEING...THOUGH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NIGHT. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 10KT. WITH MOIST LOW-LEVELS AND RECENT RAINS...SOME LOW CEILINGS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN PLACES PRONE TO FOG. OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER/OCCASIONAL CONVECTION/RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY...AND THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-00Z KCLT HIGH 100% MED 72% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAVL HIGH 100% MED 61% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KHKY LOW 57% HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAND HIGH 100% MED 72% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SBK NEAR TERM...WJM SHORT TERM...CSH LONG TERM...SBK AVIATION...WJM

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