Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000 FXUS62 KGSP 250549 AFDGSP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 149 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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AS OF 145 AM...ONLY UPDATED THE SKY/WIND FOR 06Z TAFS FOR THIS UPDATE. FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. 1030 PM EDT UPDATE...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WAS PASSING OVERHEAD AS OF OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CP SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NW RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED PER LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...HENCE HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER ACCORDINLY. EXPECT QUIET AND CHILLY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH PATCH FOG POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW MTNS/VALLEYS BEFORE SUNRISE. 720 PM EDT UPDATE...HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER/HOURLY TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBS TREND. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION FORM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS UPPER WAVE EJECTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ALONG THIS HEIGHTS ALOFT. THUS...SKIES ARE FORECAST TO CLEAR BY EARLY MORNING ALLOWING FOR ABUNDANT RADIATIONAL COOLING REGIONWIDE. THESE COOL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH CALM WINDS WILL YIELD FROST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST NC...TO INCLUDE BUNCOMBE COUNTY AND THE OUTSKIRTS OF ASHEVILLE PROPER. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE UPSTATE AND NC PIEDMONT HOLD IN THE LOWER 40S. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON SATURDAY EFFECTIVELY REINFORCING THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHER WEST...BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY PERIODS END. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RETURN TO AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 200 PM FRI...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT NITE PUSHING THRU A WEAK COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE ENUF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO COMBINE WITH THE UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHRA ALONG THE TN BORDER. THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE MTNS...EVEN WHERE SHRA DO NOT DEVELOP. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL...BUT GUSTS SHUD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THRU THE DAY SUN...BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER. ELSEWHERE...SOME CLOUDS MAY SPILL OUT OF THE MTNS AND ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHUD PREVAIL. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME LOW END GUSTS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. ON MONDAY...A BROAD H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SERN CONUS. SLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND THICKNESSES WILL BE ON THE RISE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS...AFTER LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 215 PM FRI...UPPER RIDGING ATOP THE SE CONUS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HANG ON INTO TUESDAY...CONTINUING OUR STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. SWLY LLVL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BOOST MAX TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE CLIMO VALUES. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN ON JUST HOW QUICKLY FRONTAL ZONE MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY AFFECT THE MTNS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE OP GFS SLOWER THAN EARLIER SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...TOKEN SMALL SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE NC MTNS WEDNESDAY. A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE SAGGING INTO THE CWFA ON THURSDAY. AT LEAST A LIMITED AMOUNT OF FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE L/WV TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z SUN AT ALL TERMINALS. SKC AND CALM TO LIGHT NW/NE WINDS THRU THIS MORNING. CONTINUED SKC OR FEW250...WITH A LIGHT SW/WSW BY EARLY AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE MTNS THIS EVENING...WITH SOME VERY SHALLOW LLVL MOISTURE BANKING UP AGAINST THE NC MTNS IN NWLY FLOW. SOME OF THE CLOUDS MAY REACH KAVL. GUIDANCE HAS THIS AT VFR LVL...BUT THE CLOUDS MAY BE LOWER. OUTLOOK...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER AND A LOW PROBABILITY OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
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&& .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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GA...NONE. NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050- 053-501-503-505. SC...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...CSH NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG/JOH SHORT TERM...RWH LONG TERM...CSH AVIATION...ARK

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