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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KGSP 252338
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
738 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front located just south of our area moves north as a
warm front on Friday and washes out across our area, but giving us a
cooler day because of clouds and a few showers. After that, expect a
warming trend through the weekend and into next week as high
pressure takes over. A weak cold front is expected to approach from
the northwest in the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 735 PM EDT Thursday: Cirrus continues to spread in from the
west and thicken while stratocu has dissipated. Winds have turned S
to SE across the area but will turn back to the NE overnight.

Otherwise, downstream of large-scale western height falls, a
building upper ridge will progress across the eastern half of the
country through the period. Confluent flow downstream of this
feature will support persistence of a 1030+ mb surface high over New
England, with circulation around this feature allowing for
development of an inverted surface ridge east of the Appalachians
tonight through Friday. S/SE flow above this shallow stable layer
will increase moist isentropic lift and upslope flow from around
sunrise through much of the day Friday. However, rising motion is
expected to be quite weak and moisture shallow, so PoPs are limited
to the 20-30% range and primarily confined to the mountains and
foothills. The larger impact of the weak lift is expected to be low
cloud development, which along with NE surface flow will
significantly limit the heating potential on Friday. Max temps are
therefore forecast to be 5-10 degrees below normal...or about 10
degrees cooler than today`s readings.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1215 PM Thursday: Looks like we will be dealing with expanding
and thickening cloud cover within the developing/lingering damming
regime Friday night.  A smattering of showers or light rain should
accopmany, mainly being forced by the easterly flow impinging upon
the higher terrain.  As upper ridging strengthens top the SE CONUS
and llvl flow veers to southerly, overall improvement is on tap
featuring dissipating showers and thinning of cloud cover on
Saturday.  At this juncture, as long as the expected improvement
plays out as expected, temperature should rise to around the late
April climo.  Should be a quiet and warm Sunday as upper ridge axis
keeps the atmosphere suppressed.  Llvl flow around Bermuda Hipres
will push lower elevation maxes to around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 115 PM Thursday: The warming trend will be ongoing to start
off the work week thanks to lingering eastern seaboard deep layered
ridging.  Ridging will begin breaking down on Tuesday with moisture
and weak frontal zone energy spreading into the western cwfa.  It
looks like a second elongated frontal zone will approach the
mountains on Tuesday, and within the broad moist and weakly unstable
atmosphere a round of scattered if not numerous showers and a few
thunderstorms are probable across the western cwfa.  Otherwise,
expect snother afternoon of piedmont lower and middle 80s for
maximums.  For the latter half of the period, the pattern remains
slowly progressive with daily chances of showers and storms, almost
summerlike with respect to the sensible wx as temperatures remaining
well above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR this evening with deteriorating
conditions overnight. Cirrus increases and thickens this evening.
Low level moisture and upslope flow will lead to MVFR cigs before or
near daybreak dropping to IFR near or a couple of hours after
daybreak. There will be some light rain or drizzle but chance of
that or vsby restrictions too low for the TAFs at this time. S to SE
wind this evening becomes NE overnight and increases in speed. Winds
then remain NE through the end of the period. Cigs rise to MVFR near
or after 18Z then low VFR by the end of the period.

Outlook: Periods of low clouds are expected to linger into Saturday,
with drying expected Sunday/Monday. A frontal system could bring a
round of showers and storms to the area Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL/RWH
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...RWH