Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2

000
AXUS72 KGSP 071830
DGTGSP
GAC105-147-119-257-137-241-NCC075-173-113-099-087-175-
115-021-089-149-161-111-199-121-011-023-045-071-109-
035-003-097-119-097-179-025-159-059-SCC001-047-007-
073-077-045-059-083-087-023-021-091-211830-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
230 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015

...Severe Drought Conditions Expand Across the Southern Piedmont
of North Carolina and the Eastern Piedmont of South Carolina...

SYNOPSIS...
Precipitation deficits continue to increase across the
foothills...Piedmont...and portions of the mountains with
30-day percents of normal ranging from 10 to 75 percent. In
these regions...28-day streamflows are measuring in the 2nd to
15th percentiles while groundwater levels are measuring in the
20th to 50th percentiles. In areas impacted by drought...many
reservoirs are operating below full summer pool levels but above
normal minimum pool levels. Several municipalities are enforcing
voluntary water restrictions while mandatory water restrictions
remain extremely localized. Below-normal precipitation and
temperatures are expected over the next 14 days...therefore...
drought conditions are expected to persist or gradually intensify
through late August.

CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS BY COUNTY...
Drought intensity occupying the largest surface area in each
county is listed below...

..NORTH CAROLINA...

COUNTY    CATEGORY  INTENSITY       COUNTY    CATEGORY  INTENSITY
           AS OF:     AS OF:                   AS OF:     AS OF:
          8-4/7-28     8/4                    8-4/7-28     8/4

Alexander   D1/D1  Moderate     : Jackson      NO/NO  NO Drought
Avery       D0/D0  Abnrmlly Dry : Lincoln      D2/D2  Severe
Buncombe    D0/D0  Abnrmlly Dry : Macon        NO/NO  NO Drought
Burke       D1/D1  Moderate     : Madison      D0/NO  Abnrmlly Dry
Cabarrus    D1/D1  Moderate     : McDowell     D0/D0  Abnrmlly Dry
Caldwell    D1/D1  Moderate     : Mecklenburg  D2/D1  Severe
Catawba     D2/D1  Severe       : Mitchell     D0/D0  Abnrmlly Dry
Cleveland   D2/D2  Severe       : Polk         D1/D1  Moderate
Davie       D1/D1  Moderate     : Rowan        D1/D1  Moderate
Gaston      D2/D2  Severe       : Rutherford   D2/D1  Severe
Graham      NO/NO  NO Drought   : Swain        NO/NO  NO Drought
Haywood     NO/NO  NO Drought   : Transylvania D0/NO  Abnrmlly Dry
Henderson   D1/D0  Moderate     : Union        D2/D1  Severe
Iredell     D1/D1  Moderate     : Yancey       D0/D0  Abnrmlly Dry

..SOUTH CAROLINA...

COUNTY    CATEGORY  INTENSITY       COUNTY    CATEGORY  INTENSITY
           AS OF:     AS OF:                   AS OF:     AS OF:
          8-4/7-28     8/4                    8-4/7-28     8/4

Abbeville   D0/D0  Abnrmlly Dry : Laurens      D0/D0  Abnrmlly Dry
Anderson    D0/NO  Abnrmlly Dry : Oconee       D0/D0  Abnrmlly Dry
Cherokee    D1/D1  Moderate     : Pickens      D0/D0  Abnrmlly Dry
Chester     D2/D1  Severe       : Spartanburg  D0/D0  Abnrmlly Dry
Greenville  D1/D0  Moderate     : Union        D1/D0  Moderate
Greenwood   D0/D0  Abnrmlly Dry : York         D2/D1  Severe

..GEORGIA...

COUNTY    CATEGORY  INTENSITY       COUNTY    CATEGORY  INTENSITY
           AS OF:     AS OF:                   AS OF:     AS OF:
          8-4/7-28     8/4                    8-4/7-28     8/4

Elbert      D0/NO  Abnrmlly Dry : Hart         D0/NO  Abnrmlly Dry
Franklin    D0/NO  Abnrmlly Dry : Rabun        NO/NO  NO Drought
Habersham   NO/NO  NO Drought   : Stephens     D0/NO  Abnrmlly Dry

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

..AGRICULTURAL...

Agricultural impacts include some crop losses...increased
irrigation use...and drying pasture lands. The demand for hay is
increasing in response to deteriorating pasture conditions.

..RECREATIONAL...

Lowering pool elevations at reservoirs across the drought area are
beginning to restrict boat ramp access and lake navigation.

..WATER RESTRICTIONS...

Several municipalities are enforcing voluntary water restrictions.
Voluntary water restrictions are most concentrated across the
southern Piedmont of North Carolina.

Mandatory water restrictions remain extremely localized.

..WILDFIRE DANGER...

The current fire danger class as determined by the National Fire
Danger Rating System is Moderate across northeast Georgia and
Moderate to High across Upstate South Carolina. For North Carolina
the fire danger class is High to Very High across the southern
Piedmont and foothills...and Moderate across the mountains.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

30-Day Precipitation totals across the forecast area range from as
low as 0.25 inches in portions of the lower South Carolina
Piedmont to as much as 7.00 inches in parts of the northern and
central North Carolina mountains. The majority of the forecast
area observed 30-day precipitation totals of generally 0.50 to
4.00 inches.  Across the forecast area...normal 30-day
precipitation totals range from 3.00 to 5.00 inches in the Piedmont
to 4.00 to 7.00 inches across the foothills and mountains.
Therefore...the forecast area generally received 10 to 75 percent
of normal precipitation over the past 30 days. Only very localized
areas of the forecast area received near-normal to slightly above
normal precipitation especially in parts of the North Carolina
central and northern mountains...the South Carolina eastern
Piedmont...and the North Carolina western Piedmont...owing to
locally heavy rainfall from intense thunderstorms.

PRECIPITATION and TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
..6 to 14 DAY OUTLOOK...

The overall pattern through the next 10 days features a fairly
persistent Southern Plains deep layer ridge and an East Coast
trough...keeping the region in a northwest flow regime. In this
pattern the forecast area will be impacted by shortwaves embedded
in the flow aloft...but at the current time model guidance is not
optimistic that any shortwave will be potent enough to induce
widespread significant precipitation across our area.

Additionally...while no tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico or
Western Atlantic is expected...any activity that may develop is very
unlikely to impact the region as long as the northwest-flow pattern
persists.

At least a couple of frontal passages are expected during this
period...but there will be a minimal amount of return flow from the
Gulf of Mexico or the Atlantic which would be necessary to bring
deep moisture into the area. In fact...a semi-persistent surface
ridge will exist over the Upper Midwest through much of the
period...such that each frontal passage will only reinforce a
generally northerly low-level flow of drier...continental air
across our forecast area. This will keep temperatures seasonable
if not below normal during the period.

Therefore..over the next 14 days precipitation is expected to be
slightly below normal.  Temperatures are expected to be below
normal through day 10 and rebound to near normal through day 14.

..ONE MONTH OUTLOOK...

Over the next 30-days...there is an equal chance of above-normal...
below-normal...or normal precipitation and a slight chance for
above-normal temperatures.

..THREE MONTH OUTLOOK...

Over the next 90 days...there is an equal chance of above-normal...
below-normal...or normal precipitation and temperatures.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY and OUTLOOK...

..GROUNDWATER...

Location                           Current    Record     Date of
                                    Level     Lowest     Record
                                              Level

Davie Cnty Mocksville NC           21.61 ft  23.15 ft   8/30/2002
Burke Cnty Glen Alpine NC          13.35 ft  10.66 ft   8/04/2008
Gaston Cnty Pasour Mtn NC          41.47 ft  50.31 ft   1/31/2013
Haywood Cnty nr Cruso NC            6.09 ft   6.90 ft   1/05/1998
Mcdowell Cnty Pleasant Gardens NC  31.12 ft  31.72 ft   8/29/2011
Rowan Cnty Barber NC                9.33 ft  11.01 ft  10/02/2002
Transylvania Cnty Blantyre NC      31.84 ft  42.19 ft  12/12/2008
Union Cnty Mineral Springs NC      31.02 ft  42.48 ft   1/09/2013
Oconee Cnty Tamassee SC            29.51 ft  31.86 ft  11/10/2008
Spartanburg Cnty Croft SP SC       47.65 ft  51.65 ft   2/28/2013
York Cnty Rock Hill SC             24.37 ft  29.62 ft  12/22/2012
Chester Cnty Leeds Fire Tower      90.68 ft  94.20 ft   7/25/2013

..RESERVOIRS...

                Full      Current
 Name           Pool     Elevation

Hartwell Dam  658.9 ft:  657.28 ft
Russell Dam   473.9 ft:  474.33 ft
Jocassee Dam   99.5 ft:   99.05 ft
Keowee Dam     99.0 ft:   95.74 ft
Bridgewater     100 ft:   96.47 ft
Rhodhiss Dam    100 ft:   96.59 ft
Oxford Dam      100 ft:   96.41 ft
Lookout Shoals  100 ft:   96.42 ft
Cowans Ford     100 ft:   95.54 ft
Mountain Island 100 ft:   96.56 ft
Lake Wylie      100 ft:   94.91 ft
Fishing Creek   100 ft:   98.92 ft
Great Falls     100 ft:   97.51 ft
Cedar Creek     100 ft:   97.10 ft
East Fork       100 ft:   91.06 ft
West Fork       100 ft:   90.96 ft
Bear Creek      100 ft:   92.46 ft
Cedar Cliff     100 ft:   98.31 ft
Thorpe          100 ft:   94.31 ft
Nantahala       100 ft:   94.63 ft

..OUTLOOK...

The forecast area typically enters a period of reduced rainfall from
late August into October. However...this period is also during the
peak of the Atlantic hurricane season and tropical activity may
enhance rainfall during the late summer and early fall. Currently
strong El Nino conditions are expected to persist into the winter
season which may contribute to a below-normal Atlantic hurricane
season and to greater chances of above-normal precipitation for our
forecast area as we head into the late fall and the winter months.
Therefore...drought conditions are expected to persist or strengthen
into the fall and gradually improve heading into late fall and
winter.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

This product will be updated no later than early September or sooner
if significant changes to drought conditions occur.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

The U.S. Drought Monitor /USDM/ is a multi-agency effort involving
NOAA/s National Weather Service /NWS/ and the National Centers for
Environmental Information...the U.S. Department of Agriculture
/USDA/...the U.S. Geological Survey /USGS/...state departments of
agriculture...the U.S. Forest Service /USFS/...state forest
services...the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers /USACE/...private
reservoir operators...state and regional climatologists...and the
National Drought Mitigation Center /NDMC/.

County-specific drought categories are derived from the NDMC/s USDM.

Agricultural information is derived from the USDA...the Climate
Prediction Center /CPC/...the North Carolina Department of
Agriculture and Consumer Services...and the National Integrated
Drought Information System.

Fire Danger classifications are courtesy of the USFS...the Georgia
Forestry Commission...and the North Carolina Forest Service.

The precipitation analysis is derived from quality-controlled
gridded precipitation estimates produced at the Lower Mississippi
River Forecast Center and the Southeast River Forecast Center.

The precipitation and temperature outlook is derived from guidance
produced at the CPC.

Groundwater levels and records are courtesy of the USGS.

Reservoir information is courtesy of Duke Energy...Georgia Power...
and the USACE.

RESOURCES...

NDMC/s USDM...
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu

USDM Classification Definitions...
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/AboutUs/ClassificationScheme.aspx

North Carolina Drought Mitigation Advisory Council...
http://www.ncwater.org/drought/

South Carolina Drought Response Committee...
http://www.dnr.sc.gov/climate/sco/Drought/drought_current_info.php

River Conditions and Forecasts via the NWS...
http://www.weather.gov/ahps/

Streamflow Conditions via the USGS...
http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch

Mid-Term and Long-Term Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks
via the CPC...
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

QUESTIONS or COMMENTS...

This product will be undergoing a series of revisions and
enhancements during the current drought period. Your feedback and
recommendations are encouraged in order to ensure this product
meets user needs.  Please direct feedback...recommendations...
questions...and comments to:

National Weather Service
Weather Forecast Office - Greenville-Spartanburg
1549 GSP Drive
Greer SC 29651
Phone 864-848-9970
gsp.webmaster@noaa.gov

JMP
$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.