Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KGYX 281056 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 656 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH GUSTY WINDS...TORRENTIAL RAIN...AND HAIL...WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY BEFORE EXITING THE COAST WITH THE FRONT BY EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND MOVES OFF THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO RETURN. COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET IN 1ST PERIOD GRIDS. PREV DISC... A QUIET NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND HAZE IN THE HUMID AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NWS RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SOME SCATTERED LIGHT ECHOES ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST OTHERWISE A DRY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE SHOWING UP NICELY ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD CAPES AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE. WHILE THE HRR SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING...EXPECT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING ON AS SHEAR AND UVM INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING TO INCLUDE STRONG GUSTY WIND AND TORRENTIAL RAIN...AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SUPPORT THE CONVECTION EXITING EVEN COASTAL SECTIONS BY EARLY EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... CLEARING AND MUCH LESS HUMID TONIGHT AND FRIDAY UNDER BUILDING RIDGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S...WITH SOME LOWER 80 DEGREE READINGS CONFINED TO SOUTHERN INTERIOR NEW HAMPSHIRE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CLIMB LATE SATURDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOOK FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP AND SLOW DOWN AS IT EXITS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN AREAS SUNDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THAT PERIOD...SO COOLER CONDITIONS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER WARM UP WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM...MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS THIS MORNING...THEN VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SOME TSTMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. BCMG VFR AFT 00Z WITH LCL MVFR PSBL FRI AM IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG. LONG TERM...AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALLY LIFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...EXPECT MARGINAL SCA CONDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE TODAY...THEN WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LONG TERM...SCA THRESHOLDS MAY BE EXCEEDED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING AND SEAS BUILDING. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. && .FIRE WEATHER... WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY. THUS FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOWER THAN IT HAS BEEN. DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150- 152-154. && $$ ES

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.