Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 301032 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 632 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler and drier Canadian High pressure will build across the area through today. The next disturbance approaches from the west Sunday and early next week bringing rain to the region. Mainly dry weather with a gradual warming trend is expected beginning Wednesday through late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 630 AM...Minor ESTF update to ingest the current mesonet into near term grids. Prev Disc... At 06z...a 1020 millibar high was centered north of Lake Huron. GOES infrared imagery showed mainly clear skies across the forecast area under the building high. There was a band of marine stratus and fog to our east over the Gulf of Maine that was reaching the coastline vicinity of Penobscot Bay. Across the interior...the light winds and clear skies were allowing some patchy valley stratus and fog to develop. For Today...the surface high will continue to nose into the area from the north. We`ll see a mostly sunny day with comfortable humidity levels. Highs will range from the 70s across the mountains to the lower and mid 80s elsewhere. The light synoptic flow will turn onshore by afternoon in a developing seabreeze. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Clouds will spread north and east into southern New Hampshire and extreme southwest Maine overnight...as the high retreats into the Maritimes and in advance of the next disturbance approaching from the Midwest. The ECMWF continues to be the most bullish with the northern extent of the precipitation shield...and while still an outlier has begun to trend closer to the NAM...CMC-global...and GFS solutions. Accordingly...I confined POPs to the southern third of New Hampshire and adjacent southwest Maine overnight. Lows tonight should range from the 50s in the mountains...to a few degrees either side of 60F for the remainder of the forecast area. On sunday...the weak disturbance attempts to inch northeast into the stubborn high parked over the maritimes. The onshore flow may contribute to some patchy drizzle near the coast from Casco Bay southward...otherwise the shower activity should be confined largely to southern New Hampshire and extreme southwest Maine during the day. High temperatures should be mainly in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A upper level trough will approach the area through Tuesday...then gradually move offshore Tuesday night. As the trough moves east of the area, an upper ridge will start to build across the region for the upcoming week. A cold cold front will approach the region Friday and is expected to cross the area Friday night. Models continue to have differences in the progression of these systems with the ECMWF being the most progressive. Although the forecast is based on a blend of models, have put a bit more weight in the slower model solutions. In addition, these models tend to keep the more significant rainfall west and north of the region...although all areas should see at least light amounts Monday and Monday night. In terms of surface conditions, damp weather will continue through Tuesday as a persistent southeast flow gradually backs to the east and northeast as a weak area of low passes very slowly south of the Gulf of Maine on Tuesday. The combination of this low along with high pressure over the maritimes will lead to a bit of cold air damming east of the mountains with high temps Monday and Tuesday mainly in the 70s. As the low moves away from the area Tuesday night and Wednesday..a weak area of high pressure will build into the area. The high will move offshore Wednesday night. As it does, a southwest flow will bring warming temperatures and increasing humidity into the region for Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term /through Sunday/...Lcl ifr through 11z in patchy stratus and fog...otw vfr. Lcl ifr developing aft 05z Sun in stratus and fog. Aft 12z Sun...bcmg vfr with areas of mvfr in -shra. Long Term...Areas of MVFR in showers Sunday night through Tuesday. otherwise mainly VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Sunday/...Conditions to remain below SCA thresholds through the period. Long Term...Winds and seas expected to be below sca criteria Monday through Thursday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ ES

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