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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 092108
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
408 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL GRAZE OUR SOUTHERNMOST REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
STORM AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE GRADIENT BACKS TO
NORTHWEST. A MARITIME STORM ON SUNDAY BACKS SOUTHWARD AND COMBINES
WITH A STORM COMING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...AND CROSSES THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. USED A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/CURRENT FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES/WINDS AND BLEND OF
MAV/CURRENT FORECAST FOR POPS.
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.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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ADVANCING SNOW LINE WILL HAVE TO MOISTEN UP A RELATIVELY DRY AIR
MASS BEFORE IT`S ABLE TO FALL. EXPECT IT TO BEGIN DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OVER WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND OVER EASTERN FORECAST AREA AFTER
NOONTIME. MODELS HAVE TRENDED NORTHWARD OVER PAST COUPLE OF RUNS AND
LOOKS LIKE TIGHT SNOW GRADIENT WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A COUPLE
OF INCHES SOUTH OF A KLEB-KPWM LINE TO 6 INCHES OR MORE ALONG
SOUTHERNMOST ROCKINGHAM COUNTY IN NH. ON THAT BASIS...HAVE ISSUED
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ROCKINGHAM COUNTY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. EXPECT HEAVIEST ACTIVITY TO OCCUR TOMORROW
EVENING.  SYSTEM EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT LEAVING A BRISK NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW BEHIND IT.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. DOWNSLOPE
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT DOWNWIND OF
THE MOUNTAINS. INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE IN
THE MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE
NORTH.

PRETTY UNEVENTFUL PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS DEPARTING LOW BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM AND SLOWLY RETRO-GRADES BACK TO THE WEST.

MINOR DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP
VARIABLE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH WITH MORE IN THE WAY
OF CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE BACKS
INTO EASTERN CANADA.

NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY WITH
MOST OF IT`S ENERGY ONCE AGAIN PASSING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. SYSTEM MAY BRUSH THE COAST WITH A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW LATE ON MONDAY BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT MAY BE LIKE
ANOTHER MISS FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

WINDY AND COLD WEATHER CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS NORTH/MOUNTAINS EXCEPT FOR ANY LOCAL MVFR
IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS. OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS...VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...LOWERING TO MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS...THEN LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM....MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN AREAS
FOR WEDNESDAY....IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY VFR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA...INCREASING TO SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE BAYS
AND GLW CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS SHOULD WIND DOWN THURSDAY EVENING.
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&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.
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&&

$$