Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 011855 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 255 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ALONG IT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POPPING IN NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DIE OUT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BY THIS EVENING. OCEAN STRATUS LURKING OFFSHORE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INLAND THIS EVENING IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MAINE. ELSEWHERE VALLEY FOG WILL AFFECT THE USUAL SPOTS. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
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HOT AND MUGGY TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT MORNING FOG AND STRATUS TO GIVE WAY TO HAZY SUN WHICH WILL QUICKLY DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. SHOULD SEE AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT LOOKING FOR A LOT IN THE WAY OF SHEAR UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY BUT SOME STORMS IN THE NORTH COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS BY MID AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL MAINE FROM PORTLAND TO THE MID COAST IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. ELSEWHERE HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 80S TO NEAR 90. MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WHICH MAY LAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FAR EASTERN ZONES. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RISING HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE WORKING INTO THE AREA BY WED MORNING. ANY REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY END BY MID MORNING...EVEN FOR ERN ZONES. HIGH PRES WILL REESTABLISH SE OF THE AREA...BRINGING SW FLOW ALOFT AND A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. FRI SHOULD BE THE WARMEST OF THESE DAYS...WITH H8 TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FNT. STILL LOOK TO FALL SHY OF RECORDS IN THE LOW 90S...BUT READINGS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. S/WV TROF EJECTS OUT OF LARGER WRN TROF...AND RACES UP THRU CANADA TO QUEBEC BY SAT. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FNT SLOWLY TOWARDS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE AGAIN IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A FROPA SAT...CLEARING THE COAST BY SUN. AS USUAL MULTI-MODEL BLEND TENDS TO SMOOTH OUT THE POP AND PROLONG CHANCE OF PCPN...SO I HAVE TRIED TO NARROW THE TIME WINDOW FOR POP AS BEST AS POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME RANGE. THE RESULT IS MOSTLY DRY FRI AND SUN...WITH HIGHEST POP SAT. A MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS BUILDS IN WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRES BEHIND FROPA. NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY AIR WILL BE THE RULE FOR A FEW DAYS...BEFORE RIDGING AND HEAT FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY BUILDS OUR WAY AGAIN.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. BECOMING VFR OF TUESDAY. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR FOR THE EXTENDED. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN NOCTURNAL VALLEY FOG AS HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE FORECAST. COLD FROPA SAT INTO SUN MORNING COULD BRING AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSTMS.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS. LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. AHEAD OF COLD FNT ON THE WEEKEND...SUSTAINED SWLY FLOW MAY BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 5 FT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO OVERFORECAST WAVE HEIGHT UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SINSABAUGH/LEGRO

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