Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 220827 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 327 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will track southeast of the region today, bringing a period of mostly rain to the area. A changeover to snow before ending will be found in the mountains. This low will pull a cold front across the area this evening. Thanksgiving will mainly sunny but chilly, with a warming trend Friday into Saturday. Another cold front crosses the area on Sunday and could bring some rain or snow showers, with another blast of cold air expected early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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A fast moving upper trof with an associated cold front will approach from the Great Lakes today. Ahead of this trof a warm moist south to southwest flow will develop. Overrunning light rain will develop by later this morning ahead of the trof and may even see a brief mix at the onset in the mountains due to the initial cold morning temps. A weak wave will develop southeast of New England and may enhance some of the precipitation along the immediate coast this afternoon. Qpf amounts from this system will be light...generally less than a quarter inch for most areas except .50-.75 inches along the immediate coastal areas due to the developing offshore system. During the mid to late afternoon hours enough cold air may make its way into the mountains to change any precipitation to snow showers before ending in those areas. High temps will be generally in the 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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The trof and associated cold front moves rapidly offshore this evening bringing an end to the precipitation over southern and coastal areas, a brief mix may occur before ending. Much colder temps will follow behind the front overnight with morning lows expected to dip in the teens in the mountains and 20s elsewhere. High pressure builds across the region Thursday with mostly sunny skies but cold temps with highs expected to be in the 30s except lower 40s along the coast and southeast NH.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The weather pattern will remain at a fast clip through the extended despite partial blocking downstream. Thanksgiving night clouds will be on the increase as the 5H closed low over eastern Canada pivots ENE with time. Snow showers will be possible near the international border overnight as a backdoor front moves through. This will push cooler and drier air into New England. Despite a chilly start, SW winds later in the day should result in highs ranging from the mid 30s north to mid to upper 40s along the coast. Friday night will be chilly with clouds still hanging on over the higher terrain. As one upper low moves towards Greenland another will swing south to take its place. This system will be more meridional and will trigger snow and rain showers through the weekend. The changover to snow will be elevation-based for the most part. Relatively little moisture will be available and only light QPF is expected. The region will be in the warm sector for much of Saturday, and downsloping winds will make for warm temperatures with many spots in the 50s Saturday. Upper 30s to mid 40s are more likely Sunday. Behind the weekend system temperatures will drop again towards more normal values. More zonal flow aloft and high pressure at the surface will make for a quiet beginning to the work week. Additional showers are likely for next Tuesday/Wednesday as we become more engaged in fast southwest flow. Again we could see some very warm temperatures- in the 40s and 50s for highs areawide- as northern New England stays locked in the warm sector.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Short Term...Conditions lowering to IFR later this morning and afternoon across the area. Conditions improve to VFR behind the frontal passage by later this evening. VFR conditions Thu and Thu night. Long Term...Some locations may see periods of MVFR conditions in SHSN/SHRA Saturday and Sunday.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term...A SCA will continue over the eastern outer waters for seas this morning and then later today through Thu for gusty winds and seas. For the outer waters area south and east of Portland winds and seas will increase to SCA conditions later today through Thursday. Over the bays conditions should remain below SCA conditions through Thu. Long Term...Both Saturday and Sunday will see periods of winds reaching or exceeding SCA criteria, although these times may not be adjacent temporally.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ150-152. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ154.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...Marine SHORT TERM...Marine LONG TERM...Hanes

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