Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 241915 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 315 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE...STAYING TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WET WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY... WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT OUR SKIES AND DROP OFF WINDS TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE 40S N AND 50S S...THOUGH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS IN THE S. SOME VALLEY FOG LIKELY TO FORM...MAINLY OVER INTERIOR VALLEYS. USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE COAST FRIDAY...THEN OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT...TRACKING TO OUR S. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER FOR US...EXCEPT FAR NORTHERN ZONES MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWERS DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SLIDING BY JUST TO OUR N. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S N AND LOWER 80S S...EXCEPT ONLY IN THE 70S ALONG THE COAST WHERE WEAK W NW WINDS WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO SET UP DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT. HOWEVER...WEAK SW FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BRING IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS. EXPECT FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FOG OVER INTERIOR VALLEYS. USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SATURDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT... BRINGING SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE THE START TO A PERIOD OF SHOWERY WEATHER AS MULTIPLE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND DIG A BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA BY MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO DIURNALLY ENHANCED INSTABILITY. IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY... BUT BEGINS TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AND IT SHOULD FINALLY BE A DRIER DAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE W TONIGHT THEN MOVING OFFSHORE AS IT STAYS TO OUR S FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER VFR CONDITIONS... WITH THE FOLLOWING EXCEPTIONS...SOME VALLEY FOG LATER TONIGHT THAT WILL MOSTLY LIKELY JUST IMPACT LEB AND HIE AS INDICATED IN THE TAFS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWERS FAR NORTHERN ZONES MAY AFFECT HIE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT LIKELY TO DROP BELOW MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEY SEE A BRIEF SHOWER. SOME VALLEY FOG MAY FORM AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...PERIOD OF WET WEATHER FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY COULD MEAN INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE W TONIGHT THEN MOVING OFFSHORE AS IT STAYS TO OUR S FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ON SUNDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KT. MODELS TRY TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 5 FT OR ABOVE ON THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW... BUT HAVE GONE BELOW THIS IN THE FORECAST AS MODELS TEND TO OVERDO WAVE HEIGHTS ON SOUTHWEST FLOW.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ KIMBLE/CAPRIOLA

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