Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 222241 AAA AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 641 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH AND MODERATE NW FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND A POSSIBLE SHOWER ACROSS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT. COOL AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED AND COOL CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... .UPDATE... GUSTY WINDS DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE MAKING FOR A CHILLY EVENING AFTER A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. IN GENERAL GUSTS ARE AROUND 20 AND 30 MPH. EXPECT THESE TO DWINDLE IN THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS. COLD AIR STRATUS IS STILL HANGING TOUGH OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THIS DECK SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AND TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO INTERACT OVER THE TERRAIN. MAY NEED TO ADJUST OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A BIT FROM CURRENT FORECAST OF LOWER 30S AS GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE. OTHERWISE FROST SHOULD DEVELOP IN AREAS STILL CONSIDERED TO BE IN THEIR GROWING SEASON INCLUDING MERRIMACK COUNTY AND THE FISHTAIL OF CUMBERLAND COUNTY. HOWEVER...FROST IS NOT FORECAST FOR ENOUGH OF THE COUNTY TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. && PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ABATING BY MIDNIGHT. A LIGHT WIND SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN MANY PLACES DUE TO A PRETTY TIGHT GRADIENT IN PLACE SO NOT TOO WORRIED ABOUT WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS HANG ONTO STRATOCU DUE TO MOST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO SOME AREAS SUCH AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE CAN BRIEFLY DECOUPLE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY MORNING...AND THIS MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE AREA. UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS SHOULD HANG ONTO STRATOCU AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...NOT AS GUSTY AS TODAY WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S. CLEAR CALM AND CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SCATTERED FROST POSSIBLE COASTAL ZONES WHERE THE SEASON HAS NOT ENDED YET. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE WELL ESTABLISHED BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY...SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AND CLEAR SKIES WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. THIS MEANS THAT LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CT RIVER VALLEY. MORE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BY THE WEEKEND AND WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS DRY AND PLEASANT...IF THERE ARE ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES THAT CLIMB THE RIDGE...THEY COULD DRAG A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AS BOTH THE EURO AND GFS ARE HINTING AT FOR NEXT MONDAY. EITHER WAY...THE WEATHER LOOKS GREAT FOR AT LEAST AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF TIME. HOWEVER...WE HAVE GOTTEN STUCK WITH LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE MANY TIMES BEFORE WHILE BEING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...I`LL HAVE TO PLAY THE ROLE OF A PESSIMIST FOR NOW DUE TO DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AND WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF MODEL SUITES. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL ABATE THIS EVENING. LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION DURING THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT FOG MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY AT LEB AND HIE. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS AOA 5 FT EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL ABATE LATE TONIGHT AND TUE. LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ UPDATE...HANES

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