Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 301021 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 621 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY. AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE FRONT WILL LOITER NEARBY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. ASOS EQUIPMENT AROUND THE HUDSON VALLEY ARE JUST NOW STARTING TO DETECT PCPN...DESPITE THE RADAR PRESENTATION. EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE PCPN THIS MORNING WILL BE VERY LIGHT OR NOT AT ALL...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS ON THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TO SHOW THIS TREND. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY BACK ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. SLY TO SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW SRN NH AND PARTS OF THE INTERIOR OF WRN ME TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL. WINDS OFF THE WATER HOWEVER WILL LIKELY KEEP COASTAL ME BELOW NORMAL. MORE OR LESS MOISTURE STARVED...QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT...AND BEST CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 0.1 INCH WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AIR MASS IS DRY ENOUGH THAT MOST PCPN SHOULD FALL AS SN...THOUGH A MIX WITH RA ACROSS SRN ZONES IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY NRN ZONES...THE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT OF THE WIND MAY HELP TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER GUSTS...NEAR 35-40 MPH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH LOW PRES PULLING N THRU QUEBEC. WHAT MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE WILL BE FORCED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND RESULT IN AREAS OF SHSN CONTINUING INTO TUE. A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FOR NRN ZONES. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MORE OR LESS MIXED OVERNIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS ON THE MILDER SIDE. COLDEST AIR WILL DELAY UNTIL TUE TO ARRIVE...SO TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE ABLE TO CLIMB TOWARDS 40 NEAR THE COAST WITH SOME SUNNY SKIES. ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE FOR FREEZING HOWEVER...AS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ALREADY WORKED INTO THOSE AREAS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE WHILE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST IT WILL STRENGTHEN AND COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TO PRODUCE SOME STRONGER WINDS ON WEDNESDAY... THOUGH GUSTS SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA... ONLY IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. IT WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER THOUGH AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO RISE OUT OF THE 30S. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A WARMING TREND TO COMMENCE ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A WARM FRONT WILL FORM PRIMARILY TO OUR WEST... BUT COULD EXTEND EASTWARD INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY AND AID IN THE PRODUCTION OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA ON FRIDAY THOUGH MOST OF THE FORCING STAYS TO THE NORTH. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THEIR WARMEST LEVELS OF THE SEASON SO FAR. READINGS IN THE 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 60 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY BUT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE OFFSHORE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL GENERATE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WOULD BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS LOW TRACK... AND THUS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY COULD FALL AS SNOW. IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GET ENOUGH COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. FOR THE MOST PART THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...AND THUS DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS FOR MOST TERMINALS. GREATEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER SHRASN WILL BE AT KLEB AND KHIE LATE THIS MORNING THRU THE EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST A BROKEN DECK OF MVFR CIGS TO TRANSITION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. GUSTY SWLY BECOMING WLY WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL PROLONG UPSLOPE SHSN NEAR KHIE INTO TUE. LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS SHOWERY WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS INTO TONIGHT. LONG TERM...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST WINDS TO STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS TO 25 OR 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ NEAR TERM...LEGRO SHORT TERM...LEGRO LONG TERM...KIMBLE AVIATION...KIMBLE/LEGRO MARINE...KIMBLE/LEGRO

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