Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 290246 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 946 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVERHEAD TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND CREST OVERHEAD TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... 935 PM UPDATE: SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT. TEMPS FALLING RATHER QUICKLY AS FCST. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS FCST ATTM BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA. NO OTHER CHANGES. PREV DISC: EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR LATER LEADING TO A VERY COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR. THE NAM IS THE WARMEST MODEL TONIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING JUST A BIT COLDER THAN THE ECMWF. I HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF/GFS FOR MINS TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST EVERYWHERE WITH SOME LOWER TEENS CLOSE TO THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN THE MODELS DIFFER WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. NAM IS THE WARMEST WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS BEING THE COLDEST BY FAR. THE PARALLEL GFS IS WARMER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND VERY CLOSE TO THE 00Z ECMWF. I USED THE PARALLEL GFS AND ECMWF TO POPULATE MAX TEMPS FOR SATURDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL INCREASE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE COLD BUT NOT NEARLY AS BAD AS TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. TEMPS MAY BECOME STEADY OR EVEN RISE A BIT BEFORE DAWN ON SUNDAY. I USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR LOW TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... OVERALL THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH SEVERAL SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES BUT NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FOR MID WEEK. SUNDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE DAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION SETS IN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES COMES AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. CLASSIC WARM FRONTAL ISENTROPIC UPLIFT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE TEMPERATURE BEGIN TO DROP THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SET IN. TUESDAY WILL SEE A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILD INTO THE REGION. INITIALLY THE STRING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY MORNING... BUT WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO 20S THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHWEST. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TRY TO PUT A TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY... BRINGING PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A BIG SPREAD IN THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND TYPE OF ANY PRECIPITATION. HAVE OPTED TO RUN WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AS THIS IS STILL DAY 6, BUT CERTAINLY TRENDING TOWARDS ANOTHER WIDE SPREAD PRECIP EVENT FOR MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM...EXPECT SOME EARLY MVFR/IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCE MVFR VSBY IS SNOW SHOWERS. LONG TERM... WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR ON SUNDAY. MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AT HIE AND LEB BUT ELSEWHERE RETURN TO VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. LONG TERM... SUNDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SCA ON THE OUTER WATERS IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.... AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND APPROACH GALE FORCE. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$

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