Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 051724 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 124 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SOUTH TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK AND PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND POSSIBLY PROVIDE SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MIDWEEK OR LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1022 AM UPDATE: OTHER THAN MATCHING CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO GOING FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. 616 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE 10Z MESONET IN FIRST PERIOD GRIDS. PREV DISC... HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE CT VALLEY. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. WARM RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON SUNDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE FORECAST AREA WITH SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEARBY ON THURSDAY...SO ANY RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY SHOULD BE BRIEF AND LIMITED TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPSTREAM ENERGY WILL THEN CARVE OUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY...WITH BACKING FLOW AND A SURFACE LOW TRACKING TO OUR WEST...PUSHING THE STALLED FRONT BACK TO OUR NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM... OUTSIDE OF MORNING FOG POTENTIAL SUNDAY MORNING... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY SETTLES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT. FOG: PRETTY MUCH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE MOISTURE PROFILE DURING THE PAST 18 HOURS...WITH ANOTHER CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT. THUS...SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AT CON/AUG/HIE/LEB WITH PERIODS VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS PRIMARILY IN THE 9-13Z TIMEFRAME. WINDS: SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10KTS WILL GO CALM AGAIN THIS EVENING AND FOR THE OVERNIGHT...RETURNING TO 5-10KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. LLWS: CAN FORESEE A BIT OF LLWS POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS AS SURFACE WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN COUPLED. LONG TERM... MON AM...LCL IFR PSBL IN VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG. TUE AM...LCL IFR PSBL IN VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG. TUE PM - WED...SCT MVFR IN SHRA AND -TSRA. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LONG TERM... MON - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...ARNOTT/EKSTER SHORT TERM...EKSTER LONG TERM...SCHWIBS AVIATION...ARNOTT MARINE... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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