Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 030332 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1132 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY ALLOWING MORE HUMID AIR BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... 1130PM UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST POP TO REFLECT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN TONIGHT IN NORTHERN AREAS AND MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS MAY BEGIN TO BREAK UP AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT... BUT STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. 7 PM...UPDATED POPS TO KEEP THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR...EXCEPT ALONG THE MID- COAST WHERE MARINE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY MOVING IN. SHRA/TSRA JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS UPSTATE NY...WILL WORK THEIR WAY EWD AND SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE CT VLY 01-02Z...EARLIEST IN THE FAR N. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE TRENDING FOR BULK OF THIS PRECIP TO SHIFT ACROSS MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...WHERE BEST DYNAMICS WILL MOVE THROUGH. HAVE LIMITED THE LKLY/CAT POPS OVERNIGHT TO THIS AREA AND JUST WENT WITH CHC POPS CLOSER TO THE COAST. PREVIOUSLY...WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY KICKING OFF LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS AREA TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO MARINE LAYER IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE POPPING UP IN HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS AS HEATING CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF SHEAR AT THE MOMENT AND FREEZING LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH SO NOT LOOKING FOR ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE BUT SOME ISOLATED CELLS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS. MAIN EVENT WILL COME LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT GENERALLY AFTER 00Z. ALTHOUGH LOSS OF HEATING WILL TEND TO WEAKEN CONVECTION AS IT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...INCREASING SHEAR MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WHICH MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY. WILL LIKELY BE GETTING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT BEFORE CONVECTION MOVES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE NORTHWEST GRADIENT TIGHTENS...CLEARING OUT MOST AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK. WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOOKING FOR A BREEZY AND WARM DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO THE MID 80S. UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR DURING THE DAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CLEAR AND COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA. COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DIPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION THU BUT MOVES E ON FRI. COOLER AND DRIER WITH BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH UNTIL LATE FRI. ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT A RETURN WARMER SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN OFF THE COAST BY SAT NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR. OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODEL FOR POPS, WX AND TEMPS. && .AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING THIS EVENING IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ELSEWHERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...VFR THU AND FRI. BECOMING MVFR IN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS FRI NIGHT THRU EARLY SAT NIGHT. CONDS RETURN TO VFR SUN. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS. SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM...A SCA MAY BE NEEDED SAT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM S-SW. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...KIMBLE

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