Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 070650 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 250 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE CIRCULATION AROUND AN OFFSHORE HIGH WILL TRANSPORT WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATER TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE ALLOWING PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH TWO INCHES...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80F...BUT A BIT COOLER AT THE COAST IN ONSHORE FLOW. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... MODELS SUGGEST A BRIEF LULL IN THE CONVECTION EARLY TONIGHT AS THE INITIAL ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EXITS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...THEN THE SECOND ROUND ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING POPS THROUGH DAWN. CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. ON WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT PRESSES SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST WITH ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER SUPPORT SLIPS OFFSHORE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER...WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST IN DEVELOPING POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS LOOKING QUIET THIS MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT FLOW ALOFT WILL TEND TOWARDS W OR WNW. WHILE THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP DISTURBANCES MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA...THE TENDENCY WILL BE FOR WEAKER AND MORE MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEMS. AFTER FRONT PUSHES S OF THE AREA THU...THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY UNTIL NEXT S/WV TROF ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. HARD TO REALLY GO MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AT THIS POINT HOWEVER. ZONAL FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS MORE CONSISTENT ACROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT ANY MAJOR AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW...TEMPS WILL TREND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...SCT MVFR AND BRIEF LCL IFR IN VALLEY FOG THROUGH 12Z...THEN VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR DVLPG THIS PM AND CONTINUING TONIGHT IN SHRA AND TSRA. LCL IFR CONDS PSBL BTWN 06Z AND 12Z WED IN FOG AND STRATUS. CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGHOUT BY 16Z WED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LONG TERM...VFR TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR AREAS OF VALLEY FOG AT NIGHT. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY...WITH MINIMAL SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY OUTSIDE THE BAYS TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ SCHWIBS/LEGRO

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