Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 261645 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1145 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... It`ll be blustery and noticeably cooler today behind a departing cold front. A weak trough will cross the area later today and that may produce a few mountain snow showers. Low pressure passes to our north late tonight and Monday and will introduce warmer air once again to the region. The trailing cold front will cross the area late Monday. A more significant storm system will arrive for the mid week period. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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1145am Update...Forecast package primarily in good shape. Cold air advection is getting going and winds are picking up as expected. Temperatures across much of the area will either stay steady or begin falling. Will update the forecast to account for these trends. 910am Update...Radar showing some fairly decent returns coming off the mountains. High resolution short range models are doing a pretty good job of picking up on this activity. Will update forecast to account for this precipitation as well as adjust temperature trends a little bit. 604 AM...minor ESTF update to reflect current radar trends and to ingest the latest mesonet into near term grids. Prev disc... At 07z...a surface cold front had just exited the coastline. A weak secondary front/surface trough was approaching the Saint Lawrence valley. For today...upslope flow and the secondary front will produce a few clouds and mountain snow showers with the potential for some light accumulations. Elsewhere...we should see a few clouds along with partly to mostly sunny skies in downslope flow. Highs today will range from near 32F in the mountains to upper 30s and lower 40s elsewhere.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Diminishing winds and clearing skies this evening as weak ridging takes hold. However...the next disturbance will quickly approach from the Great Lakes tonight with some warm air advection clouds arriving overnight mainly for northern and eastern sections. On Monday...the surface low will track across Quebec with the trailing cold front dropping into the area during the mid to late afternoon hours. Any rain or snow showers with this boundary should be confined to the higher terrain. Ahead of the front...milder southwest flow will boost temperatures into the 40s...with a few lower 50s over southern New Hampshire. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will be in control Tuesday with increasing moisture and cloud cover ahead of a sprawling low pressure system moving through the central CONUS. Temperatures Tuesday will warm into the 40s and 50s with the warmest readings over southern NH and SW Maine. Even warmer readings are possible Wednesday. We will see warm temperatures again on Thursday, but they will tempered in the north by cooler air arriving behind a cold front. Precipitation chances will increase from SW to NE Tuesday and increase overnight and into Wednesday as the actual frontal fracture and moves through. Precipitation chances will diminish on Thursday with the cold front moving offshore very early in the day and the upper level short wave swings through. The back end of the upper level trough moves through over the weekend bringing a chance of snow showers mainly to the higher terrain. From Thursday night/Friday morning onward temperatures will drop much closer to normal with a couple very chilly nights expected over the weekend (lows in the north around 0-5 degrees F and around 10-20 degrees F in Portland and Concord). Likewise daytime highs will be in the 20s and 30s. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term /through Monday/...VFR...with sct MVFR in mtn -shsn. NW surface winds will gust to 25 kt. VFR throughout tonight with sfc winds becoming light. Sct MVFR Mon in mtn -shra/-shsn. SW sfc wind on Monday will gust up to 25 kt during the afternoon. Long Term...Scattered MVFR conditions spreading from SW to NE Tuesday afternoon into Thursday in mainly -SHRA but also some -SHSN for HIE and LEB. Fog/visibility restrictions are also likely. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Monday/...Strengthening NW flow in cold air advection today with marginal gales in the open waters and small craft conditions in the bays. Winds and seas will briefly drop off tonight before increasing southwest flow on Monday brings small craft or gale conditions. Long Term...Winds and seas decrease quickly Monday night to sub-SCA criteria. Winds increase to gales and seas in the 6-9 ft range are likely Thursday into Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... The flood watch remains posted for interior portions of Maine and new Hampshire through this evening. Mild temperatures and recent precipitation has caused water levels to rise and to cause ice movement on many rivers and streams. We currently have several ice jams that have formed and additional ice jams could form at any time. Therefore...we`ll be continuing with the flood watch through today. Please consult our latest flood products for details on where ice jams and flooding are occuring. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for MEZ007>009-012>014- 020-021. NH...Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for NHZ001>009-011-012- 015. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ151- 153. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ150-152-154. && $$ Pohl

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