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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 181538
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1138 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN
MAINE ON FRIDAY...BUT GET PUSHED NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT. WARMER
AND MORE HUMID AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN ON SATURDAY...AND WILL REMAIN
OVER THEN REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WILL UPDATE TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS ALL ZONES
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE FOR THE REST
OF TODAY BASED ON LATEST RADAR. THE SURFACE FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY
MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST JUST OFF THE COAST TODAY BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
SUPPORTING THE PRECIPITATION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE DUE
TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG OR SEVERE
WEATHER DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LACK OF WIND SHEAR. ALSO
WITH THE FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST LOWER SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE
SLOWLY ADVECTING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH
DRIER AIR IN PLACE... TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500MB PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THEN CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST DOES REPRESENT A BLEND OF
00Z MODELS AND HPC GUIDANCE...IT LEANS MOST HEAVILY ON THE 12Z
EURO...WHICH SEEMS TO DO THE MOST REASONABLE OF HANDLING WAVES
THAT COME OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND INTO MODEST NW FLOW ALOFT.
IN OTHER WORDS...IN WEAKENS THEM AS THEY PASS THE CREST OF THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SWITCH TO
ZONAL TO SW FLOW...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
CONVECTION...AND ALLOW MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.

REGARDING POPS...DID PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES ON
FRIDAY...AS ONE DECENT 500MB TROUGH DROPS INTO ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF FAR NORTHERN
ME...BUT THIS GETS PUSHED BACK NORTH...AS NW FLOW ALOFT HELPS BUILD
THE SURFACE RIDGE BACK IN. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY...BECAUSE MAY MAKE IT
OVER THE RIDGE IN THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. BY
MONDAY... DEW POINTS WILL BE CREEPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND
SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY THAT EVEN THE WEAKEST WAVES
COULD PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY
WITH MVFR IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE INTO THIS EVENING. CLEARING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. COULD SEE NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED
VALLEYS AS WELL. VFR ON WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR NIGHTTIME
COASTAL STRATUS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...WILL UPDATE TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST. WEAK FRONT
OVER THE WATERS WILL PUSH OUT TO SEA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$