Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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619 FXUS61 KGYX 070011 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 711 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH QUEBEC TONIGHT. IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD CAPE COD ON TUESDAY... BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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7 PM UPDATE: MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS WITH CLOUD GRIDS FOR MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ALONG COASTAL PLAIN AND MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ON THIS TRANQUIL NIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH CANADA WILL PROVIDE SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY HAVE BROUGHT IN A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS... SO DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR AS COLD TONIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH QUEBEC AND INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE... A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT... TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 40S. BUT AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND EXPECT A NORTHEAST FLOW TO STRENGTHEN AND BEGIN TO PULL THE COLDER AIR DOWN INTO THE REST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE A LOT OF AREAS FALLING INTO THE TEENS BY MONDAY MORNING THOUGH SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL SOUTHERN MAINE MAY ONLY MAKE THE LOW TO MID 20S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST. NAEFS MEMBERS AGREE TO A CERTAIN EXTENT ON MSLP AND 500MB HEIGHTS PERHAPS AS FAR OUT AS 66 HOURS OR ONLY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. A NUMBER OF IMPULSES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND INDUCE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS. AS THE IMPULSES MOVE NORTH AND EAST FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC... SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS OR SNOW-MAKERS CLOSER TO THE COAST WHILE OTHERS KEEP THEM FARTHER OUT TO SEA. THE 12Z RUN OF THE EURO AS WELL AS THIS MORNINGS OPERATIONAL GFS BRING THE FIRST STORM JUST ALONG THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS LOOKS MORE LIKE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN FLURRIES BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE EURO SEEMS A BIT DRIER AS IT KEEPS THE DAMMING HIGH PRESSURE MORE ENTRENCHED. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN 2-4 INCHES CLOSE TO THE COAST AND PERHAPS INLAND AS FAR AS AUGUSTA MAINE AS THE SYSTEM PIVOTS. WINDS MAY BE QUITE GUSTY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS. INTERESTINGLY THIS STORM IS VERY ANOMALOUS EVEN WHEN COMPARED TO NAEFS PERCENTILES. THE STORM IS SHOWING A RETURN INTERVAL OUTSIDE THE M-CLIMATE AND NAEFS RETURN INTERVALS AS IT UNDERGOES BOMBOGENESIS IN 18 HOURS OR SO. THANKFULLY THE STRONGEST PART OF THE STORM WILL REMAIN HUNDREDS OF MILES OFFSHORE. ONE CONCERN IS THE TREND OF THE SREF PLUMES...WHICH SHOW 8-10 INCHES ALONG THE COAST. THE SREF ACTUALLY HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS PAST FRIDAYS SNOWSTORM (FEB 5). SO SOME CAUTION IS NEEDED HERE. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 4-6 INCHES ALONG THE COAST AND FOR ABOUT 50 MILES INLAND. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE WAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF MONDAYS SYSTEM... WITH ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER COASTAL SYSTEM EJECTING FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP KEEP MOISTURE BOTTLED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ADD PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH OR TWO TO ANY SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM MONDAYS STORM. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. A MUCH COLDER...DRIER...AND DENSER AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH NEGATIVE READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. BY SATURDAY WE WILL SEE SINGLE POSITIVE DIGITS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE. THIS IS SO FAR THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON AND AGREES WITH THE PROJECTED DIP IN THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION. NIL TO VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY MONDAY BECOMING MVFR OR LOWER IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS..LOWER ON THE COAST. GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. SOME IMPROVEMENT TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. VFR FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVING TOWARD CAPE COD. COULD SEE GALE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY INTO LATE MONDAY && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ150>152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$

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