Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 251454 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1054 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE...STAYING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WET WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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11 AM UPDATE... MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. SOME CUMULUS STARTING TO FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON UP THERE. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...THEN SLIDE SOUTH THRU TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW/SEA BREEZE KEEPING THE COAST COOLER. CHANNELED VORTICITY AROUND THE QUEBEC UPPER LOW WILL ALSO BE DIRECTED TOWARDS NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS AS A RESULT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
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SW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL STILL FAVOR SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG. ATMOSPHERE WILL GROW INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF DEVELOPING EASTERN TROUGH...SO SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...BUT STILL OF THE SCATTERED VARIETY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXACT TIMING OF EACH ONE VARIES SLIGHTLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL. OVERALL AN UNSETTLED PERIOD EXPECTED BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE FIRST IN THE SERIES TO AFFECT THE AREA. INDICES INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IF TIMING IS RIGHT, THEN A BRIEF BREAK WILL OCCUR SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A MORE PRONOUNCED LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THRU NEW ENGLAND. ON TUESDAY SOME LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH ONLY SLOWLY EXITS THE REGION AND ENOUGH CYCLONIC FLOW TO ALLOW INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD BUT DUE TO CLOUDS/SHOWERS LIMITED DIURNAL HEATING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S DURING THE DAY. NIGHTS WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. BY MIDWEEK CLEARING TAKES PLACE WITH A DRIER CANADIAN AIR MASS WITH DRIER AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND INPUT FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES. USED A BLEND OF HPC AND MODEL GUIDANCE FOR QPF.
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&& .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. MORE VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COULD BRING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS TO PARTS OF NH. LONG TERM...SCATTERED CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY LOWERING CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES. CONDITIONS IMPROVED TO VFR MIDWEEK.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND HOLDS THRU SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. UNDERCUT WNA AND SWAN GUIDANCE FOR SEAS SATURDAY...AS THEY APPEAR TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO AND OVER 5 FT TOO QUICKLY IN SW FLOW REGIME. LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ON SUNDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KT. MODELS BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 5 FT OR ABOVE OVER THE OUTER WATERS ON THE SOUTH FLOW...THUS MAY NEED A SCA FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE

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