Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 041535 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1135 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...THE COOL AND WET WEATHER WILL RETURN AGAIN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO NEW ENGLAND...ALONG WITH COOL...ONSHORE WINDS. ONE PERIOD COMES TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SET TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE STUCK IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL RUNS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD THIS MORNING PER LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH TONIGHT...DROPPING ABOUT A HALF INCH OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY...STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 50S IN MANY LOCATIONS. PREV DISC... 6AM UPDATE... JUST A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES. A FEW PATCHY AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VT. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ALLOWING FOR LOW PRESSURE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE DELMARVA AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE EAST KEEPING COOL DAMP AIR IN THE AREA. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE AS THE OCEAN TEMPERATURE REMAINS AROUND 45 DEGREES WHICH, COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES. EVEN INLAND WHERE THE WATER IS NOT ALWAYS A FACTOR THE OVERCAST SKIES WILL PERSIST AND LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... RAIN WILL BEING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR STEADY RAIN IN THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE LOW TRIES TO MOVE OUT TO OUR EAST IN THE GULF OF MAINE, HOWEVER THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR DRIZZLE TO LINGER WELL INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THE SYSTEM MAY STALL FURTHER...KEEPING THE DRIZZLE AND OVERCAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AROUND, PATCHY FOG CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THU NIGHT UPPER LOW PRES CONTINUES ITS SLOW MIGRATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. S/WV TROF WILL ROUND THE BASE AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST INTO FRI MORNING. COULD SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF RNFL AND GENERAL LOW CLOUDS/COOL ONSHORE FLOW. A BRIEF PERIOD OF S/WV RIDGING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THE UPPER LOW THEN MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST. THAT SHOULD SUPPORT DIURNAL INCREASES IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND TEMPS REMAINING A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL. LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW TRENDING TOWARDS A STRONGER NRN STREAM UPPER LOW SENDING A COLD FNT THRU THE REGION. THAT WILL PROLONG THE STRETCH OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCES FOR RA. BEYOND THAT...THERE IS STILL A CONSENSUS FOR RIDGING ON THE EAST COAST AND WARMER TEMPS BY MIDWEEK. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...SOLID CLOUD DECK OF 3500 TO 4000FT PRESENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AT THIS POINT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE DAY WITH PRECIPITATION IMPACTING MHT CON PSM AND PWM BY 21Z. OVERNIGHT IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. PERIODS OF LIFR IN FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR PSM PWM AND RKD. LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES MOVES THRU THE GULF OF ME. LATE FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND...UPPER LOW PRES MOVES CLOSER TO OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS...AND AFTERNOON SHRA. CANNOT RULE OUT IFR OR LOWER IN ANY HEAVIER SHRA. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...HAVE ISSUED SCAS FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR WINDS/SEAS. LONG TERM...SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS RUNNING NEAR 5 FT. && .FIRE WEATHER... WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOIST ONSHORE FLOW HELPING TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HIGH AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... BEGINNING THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE ARE SET FOR A PERIOD OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THE HIGHEST TIDES WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WHEN PORTLAND IS FORECAST TO REACH 11.9 FEET AT 1135 PM AND 1226 AM RESPECTIVELY. COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY. IF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS A LITTLE SOONER OR STRONGER...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS THE THURSDAY EVENING TIDE. ANY FLOODING WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF PORTLAND. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ151- 153. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$

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