Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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755 FXUS61 KGYX 131717 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1217 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW TO MIDCOAST MAINE. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL PUSH THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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1210 PM...BUMPED UP AMTS MORE ON THE ISLANDS IN PENOBSCOT BAY...12-18" HERE...WITH UP TO AFOOT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE WEST COAST OF THE BAY...AND SHARP GRADIENT AS YOU MOVE N AND WEST. SFC COLD FRONT DISRUPTING THE NORLUN TROUGH ATTM THIS TIME...AND THIS IS HANDLED WELL BY HRRR/WRF/NAM12. THE MESO MODELS SUGGEST THE TROUGH GET REORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON IN PRETTY CLOSE TO THE SAME SPOT IT WAS...BUT LOOKS LIKE NEVER QUITE WITH THE VIGOR OF THIS MORNING...SO ADDL ACCUMS ARE LIKELY IN THIS AREA...SEVERAL MORE INCHES...BUT PROB NOT QUITE AS HEAVY AS THIS MORNING. IT DOES START TO SHIFT BACK WEST LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SO EXPECT THE SNOW TO SHIFT INTO LINCOLN COUNTY AND MAYBE TOWARD CASCO BAY...BUT THIS WOULD BE LIGHTER. OTHERWISE...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA AND OUTSIDE OF THE AREA NEAR THE TROUGH TEMPS WILL BE FALLING FROM HERE ON OUT. 1015 AM...AFTER RECEIVING SOME SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM THE PENOBSCOT REGION...HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW AMTS FOR HIGHER ACCUMS ON THE ISLANDS IN THE BAY AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL TOWNS...AND A SHARPER GRADIENT AS YOU MOVE N AND W AWAY FROM THE SNOW. A FOOT OR MORE IS POSSIBLE ON NORTH HAVEN...VINALHAVEN AND ISLESBORO...WITH CLOSE TO THAT IN PLACES ALONG THE SHORE LIKE ROCKLAND...ROCKPORT AND CAMDEN. PREVIOUSLY...ARCTIC FRONT IS GRADUALLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND EXPECT THIS CLOUD COVER TO SHIFT INTO WESTERN MAINE THROUGH DAYBREAK. HAD SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLIER THIS EVENING AS IT PUSHED INTO EASTERN NEW YORK BUT THAT ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. STILL LOOKING FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SQUALLS AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE SETTING UP SOUTH OF MIDCOAST MAINE PRODUCING A VERY LOCALIZED AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW JUST OFFSHORE AND OCCASIONALLY PUSHING INTO THE ROCKLAND AREA. EXPECT SNOW TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE MIDCOAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING AS AN INVERTED TROUGH BECOMES MORE DEFINED AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THIS BOUNDARY TIGHTENS. MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFS IN WHERE THIS TROUGH AXIS SETS UP BUT CURRENT BUOY DATA CURRENTLY SHOW IT JUST EAST OR ROCKLAND. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL BE STICKING WITH CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR THE MID COAST AREA. GOOD FLUFF FACTOR AND ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE 6 TO 10 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA OF KNOX AND COASTAL WALDO COUNTIES. AREAS SURROUNDING THESE COUNTIES WILL SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEST OF THIS AREA...MAY SEE PRECIP WRAP BACK TO THE WEST AS FAR AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE REACH BY LATE MORNING BEFORE FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING IN MIDCOAST AREAS AS INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT CLOUDINESS TO LINGER OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR MOST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH ADVISORIES FOR THE COAST. LOOKING FOR LOWS OF 15 TO 25 BELOW IN THE NORTH AND 5 TO 15 BELOW IN THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY BUT DESPITE THE SUN TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE NORTH WILL ONLY TOP AT 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE AND WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY CHILLY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT AS CHILLY AS AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WITH HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW SKIES TO BE CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR CREATING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS F NORTH TO THE SINGLE NEGATIVE DIGITS F SOUTH AND APPROACHING ZERO ALONG THE COAST. WE WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFFSHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE REGION. PARENT LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER CANADA...HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND TRAVEL NE DEEPENING TO ABOUT A 995MB CYCLONE AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN NH AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF OCCURRING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE AS ALL SNOW MONDAY INTO VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER MIDNIGHT HOWEVER WE WILL SEE A NON-NOCTURNAL CURVE AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASE. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY... WITH AN AREA OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AT THE INTERFACE AS WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN ALOFT ON A STRONG 850MB LLJ OF 75 KTS. MOST AREAS WILL SWITCH TO ALL RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL HANG ONTO SNOW LONGER. LOOKING AT THE QPF... THIS COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT... ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM LEBANON NH TO THE LAKES REGION OF MAINE. THIS WOULD ALSO DEPEND ON THE FLUFF FACTOR AND AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE A MORE NORMAL OR WETTER SNOW THAN WE HAVE BEEN HAVING RECENTLY...INDICATING SNOW RATIOS BETWEEN 1:10 AND 1:13. AS THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BRIEFLY MAKING FOR A WARM WEDNESDAY. THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW AND POSSIBLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT. THIS WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES FOR A TIME... AT LEAST FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS. NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL LIKELY STILL BE BELOW NORMALS. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHEAD FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. IT IS QUICKLY PUSHED TO THE EAST BY MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES... SETTING US UP FOR ANOTHER LARGE SURFACE STORM MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN MIDCOAST AREAS TODAY AND MVFR /IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS ELSEWHERE. BECOMING VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR ON SUNDAY. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN NIGHT THRU MON WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DIMINISHING SUN AFTERNOON. COULD SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER IN SN/FZRA/RA MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. ALSO WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME GUSTY ON TUESDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...CONTINUING GALES AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND SCA`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