Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 301600 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1200 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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11 AM...FORECAST UPDATED TO COVER ONGOING WEATHER EVENTS... AS WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BETWEEN E ONSHORE FLOW AND NRN FLOW INLAND COMBINES WITH WEAK MID LVL FORCING /FNTGNS AROUND 700MB/ TO PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHRA. MESO MODELS SHIFT THIS BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY NNW DURING THE DAY...AND THE MID LVL FORCING WEAKENS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO FOLLOW THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY NNW AND BECOME MORE WIDELY SCT. HOWEVER...WILL LKLY SEE CLOUDS DIMINISH...AND THIS COULD GENERATE SOME ADDED INSTABILITY...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTIVE SHRA OR SOME THUNDER AS WE MOVE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. 630 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA. CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TOUGH...BUT SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL MAINE EASTWARD TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WERE DERIVED MAINLY FROM A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... ANY LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN A FAIR WX NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER. ON THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER PARENT UPPER LOW TO OUR NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR ASCENT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /AS LOW AS -17C AT 500MB/ SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST PROB FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SHOWERS SHOULD END UP BEING WIDESPREAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY LOOKING WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAY PROVIDE FOR SHOWERS ALL DAY. FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. SEVERAL WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT DIMINISHING CLOUDS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...LOCAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS. LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...A FEW 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY RETURN TO THE OCEAN WATERS ON THU. LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...CEMPA SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE...

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