Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 010424 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1224 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY AND WILL SLOWLY CROSS NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL MEANDER OVER THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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1215 AM...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE POPS THRU SUNRISE A BIT AND ADJUST OVERNIGHT TEMPS AS WELL. GFS REMAINS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BRING RAIN INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHILE MOST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH LOWER QPF. HAVE LOWERED A BITS THRU 12-15Z. HARD TO SEEANYTHING MORE THAN FEW SPKLS IN THE CT VLY...MONADNOCK...LAKE SUNAPEE REGION AND THE WHITES THRU 12-14Z. 926 PM UPDATE... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MORE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLING INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS STILL RANGING QUITE A BIT FROM SOUTHERN NH TO NORTHWESTERN MAINE. UPDATED TO ADJUST THERMAL PROFILES. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. 720 PM UPDATE... DEW POINTS ARE SLOWLY BUT SURELY INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT TO OUR SW. STILL A FEW SPOTS IN THE 60S THIS PAST HOUR SO ADJUSTED THE DIURNAL AND NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVES AS WELL AS THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS. WINDS ARE LIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION NOT REALLY STARTING IN WESTERN NH UNTIL PERHAPS DAYBREAK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING FOR INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S IN THE NORTH AND MID 30S TO NEAR 40 IN THE SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY WITH GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN WESTERN ZONES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S WITH COOLEST READINGS ALONG THE COAST. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... UNSETTLED IS THE WORD FOR THE LONG TERM. STILL A LOT OF QUESTION ALSO WITH WHAT COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. FIRST THINGS FIRST. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOME WELL NEEDED RAIN. MODELS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING THIS SHORT WAVE WITH EACH RUN WITH THE GFS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF. A THIRD TO 0.75 OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL BE A COOL AND RAW DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE MODELS SUGGESTING THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. ON THURSDAY A DIGGING TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BE A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF SYSTEM THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND KEEP THE NORTHEAST IN RAIN/SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALSO TIDES WILL BE QUITE HIGH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AN 11.9 FOOT TIDE EXPECTED IN PORTLAND ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ONSHORE AT THAT TIME WITH BUILDING SEAS. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY SUNDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...IFR EXPECT MONDAY...BECOMING VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS. LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD LATER IN THE WEEK AND SCA MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN. && .FIRE WEATHER... RH WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND WETTING RAINS WILL MOVE IN ON SUNDAY... CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. NO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CEMPA

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