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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 051212
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
712 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TODAY...
SPREADING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND MAY SPREAD RAIN OR SNOW
INTO SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH
ON SATURDAY WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
ON SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPDATE...
SOUTHERN AREAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
REMAINS IN FULL SWING THIS MORNING. SOME VERY LIGHT ECHOES PER
LATEST 88D IMAGERY EXISTS OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY THIS
MORNING. MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS NOT MAKING IT TO THE GROUND
DUE TO A DRY COLUMN IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...NO
REPORTS AS OF 12Z. USED THE BTV TOP/DOWN WEATHER TOOL. WILL NOT BE
ISSUING AN ADVISORY WITH SUCH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR ICE THIS MORNING.

TIDES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ONCE AGAIN TODAY. SHOULD COME UP
CLOSE TO THE 12 FOOT FLOOD STAGE IN PORTLAND. HOWEVER...WITHOUT
MUCH WIND OR WAVE ACTION...PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WATER LEVELS
IN HAMPTON WILL BE RUNNING HIGH TODAY.

PREV DISC...
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
EACH CONSECUTIVE RUN. HOWEVER...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE NEW JERSEY COASTALINE IS BEGINNING TO GENERATE SOME LOW LEVEL
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT
SOME OF THIS MAY FREEZE ON CONTACT IF IT ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH
PRIOR TO OUR EXPECTED DAYTIME WARMUP TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS VERY CLOSELY AS LATEST HRRR RUN BRINGS LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION INTO FAR SOUTHERN AREAS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FROPA FINALLY OCCURS TONIGHT...CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION FROM A
STRATIFORM TO A SHOWERY TYPE OF WEATHER. TEMPERATURES IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE COOLING OFF...SO THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN ANY PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS WHICH BRINGS TEMPERATURES IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO BELOW FREEZING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT BY LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS TO
WHETHER A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE UP THE FRONT AND SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND OR NOT. CURRENTLY...THE NAM IS MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE
NORTHERN PROXIMITY OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH LEADS US TO THE LONG
RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRI NIGHT A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE E ALONG A STALLED
FRONT LOCATED S OF NEW ENGL. SRN AREAS OF ME/NH WILL BE ON THE NRN
FRINGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD SO SOME LGT PCPN IS EXPECTED. THE PCPN
SHOULD PRODUCE PSBLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER SRN AREAS AS ANY
MIXED PCPN GRDLY CHANGES TO SNOW AS CAA OCCURS FRI NIGHT. BY SAT
MRNG SKIES CLEAR AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRES
BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION SUN ALLOWING ANOTHER NICE DAY.
SUN NIGHT THE SFC/UPR RDG AXIS OVR NEW ENGL MOVES EWD ALLOWING A
MOIST SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS A BROAD WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS AND
MOVES EWD INTO THE REGION BY MON MORNING. MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT CONDS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AND SOME ACCUMS
EXPECTED AT THE ONSET MON MRNG BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO A MIX AND
THEN RAIN FROM S-N DURING THE DAY. BY MON NIGHT SYSTEM RAPIDLY
EXITS AND CLEARING EXPECTED AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION LATE IN THE SYSTEMS WAKE. TUES AND WED MUCH COLDER
TEMPS EXPECTED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED.

ACCEPTED TIMING AND POPS OF SUPERBLEND GUID FOR DAYS 4-7.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THIS MORNING WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY FOG/DRIZZLE MOVE IN. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE
SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...
FRI NIGHT IFR CONDS IN SNW OR MIXED PCPN OVER SRN AREAS WHILE NRN
AND CNTRL AREAS MAILY VFR. ON SAT CONDS BECOME VFR ACROSS ALL
AREAS AND CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES SUN
NIGHT AND MON LOWERING CONDS TO IFR/LIFR ACROSS ALL AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD 3 TO 5 FOOT
WAVES WITH TIME. WILL ISSUES SCA FOR SEAS...WHICH WILL CARRY ON
INTO FRIDAY.  THIS IS FOR THE OUTER WATERS ONLY.

LONG TERM...
NO FLAGS FRI NIGHT AND SAT. NW WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA CONDS SUN.
ON MON AN INCRG E FLOW WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$