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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 220657
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
257 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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The remnants of Jose will meander well south of Cape Cod into
the weekend, gradually weakening with time. It will produce some
gusty winds at times along the coast through today. Meanwhile,
a large building ridge of high pressure will dominate the
weather across our region through the weekend and into early
next week. We`ll see a very nice stretch of dry and unseasonably
warm weather with temperatures running well above normal
Saturday through at least Tuesday. A front will remain nearly
stationary north of our region Wednesday, before sweeping south
as a cold front on Thursday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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At 06z...a 987 millibar low...the remnants of Jose...was
centered southeast of the 40N/70w benchmark. A 1023 millibar
ridge was draped across northern New England. GOES imagery
continues to show moisture streaming into the forecast area from
Jose. This was mostly in the form of high clouds with some
middle and low clouds confined to coastal sections. NWS Doppler
Radar mosaic showed a few bands of showers across the coastal
waters at moment. For today...Jose will wobble a bit further
north and may bring a brief shower to seacoast New Hampshire and
adjacent southwest coastal Maine this morning. Otherwise...a
dry day with the most abundant sunshine found inland and along
the international border. It`ll be another breezy
day...especially along the coast with high temperatures mainly
in the 70s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
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Jose retreats further offshore tonight as the ridge continues to
build across northern New England. Skies will become mostly
clear tonight with patchy valley stratus and fog developing once
again in the predawn hours. Mostly sunny Saturday and continued
unseasonably warm under the ridge with highs in the upper 70s
and lower 80s for the first full day of fall.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Very quiet conditions expected Saturday night with perhaps some
moisture, mainly in the form of cloudiness over northern areas
spilling over the upper level ridge. There will be some patchy
inland fog.

A strong upper level ridge will dominate for the later half of
the weekend with mainly sunny and dry conditions. It will be
very warm with H8 temperatures approaching +20C. With good
mixing, this will allow temperatures in the lower to mid 80s in
most locations. There will be an afternoon sea breeze near and
along the coastline, keeping conditions a little cooler in spots
and dropping readings back through the 70s.

It will continue to be unseasonably warm and humid for the
beginning of the work week next week with readings mainly in the
80s once again and dew points in the 60s. The record high
temperature for Portland 88 degrees and we will likely fall
several degrees short of that benchmark. There may be more
cloudiness and perhaps a stray shower over far northern areas
near the proximity of a stalled out front.

During the midweek period, temperatures will likely cool off
some as a maritime high pressure system allows for an east to
southeast flow to develop near the surface. We will need to
watch this time period for the possibility of maritime fog
forming and overspreading portions of the coastline.

Thursday will feature the best chance for showers as a strong
cold front crosses through the region. This will occur as Maria
passes by well southeast of the forecast area.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Short Term /through Saturday/...Lcl IFR through 12z in valley
stratus and fog otw VFR. SFC wind gusts today at coastal taf
sites up to 25 kt. Lcl IFR once again tonight btw 09-12z Sat in
valley stratus and fog.


Long Term...Very dry conditions with the exception for a slight
chance of a shower across the far north at HIE. Still VFR
conditions expected.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Short Term /through Saturday/...The remnants of Jose will
remain nearly stationary well south of Cape Cod through tonight.
This will mean SCA conditions are expected through today over
the outer waters. In Casco Bay...swells of 3-6 ft continue
along the outer harbor areas so a SCA due to hazardous seas will
be needed through today. An SCA for hazardous seas will likely
be needed outside the bays for tonight.

Long Term...Winds and seas generally below SCA levels. Some long
period swells are possible from hurricane Maria later in the
week.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Long period swells from the remnants of Jose will continue
through today and into the weekend. Some minor beach erosion
remains possible.
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&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ023>027.
NH...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ153.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150-
     152-154.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...Schwibs
SHORT TERM...Schwibs
LONG TERM...Cannon