Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 271442 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 942 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COASTAL LOW EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...AND SNOW WILL WIND DOWN BY EARLY MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH FORMS OFFSHORE LATER TODAY AND WILL KEEP THINGS CLOUDY THROUGH TODAY AND COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPDATED DICS... UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY AS OF 14Z ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. MANY PEOPLE REMAIN WITHOUT POWER...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST MAINE AND MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE THE LOSS OF HEAT A CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SULL SUN WILL BE REPLACED BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATER TODAY. MESOSCALE MODELS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED TROUGH TO SET UP OVER THE SEACOAST OF NH LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING A FRESH COATING OF SNOW TO THAT REGION. GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS PRECIP...HOWEVER THIS CAN EASILY SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH WITH SUBSEQUENT RUNS. PREV DISC... SFC LOW SITUATED A OF EASTPORT ME AND JUST W OF YARMOUTH NS AND TRACKING NE INTO THE MARITIMES ATTM...WITH TRAILING 700MB CLOSED LOW LOCATED TO THE N AND W...AND THIS RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST BANDS OF SNOW CROSSING THE CWA...IN CLASSIC COLD CONVEYOR BELT STYLE. BASED ON RAD/SAT AND MESO MODELS THESE BANDS WILL SHIFT AND DISSIPATE THRU ABOUT 11-12Z...AND THIS TIMES OUT NICELY WITH CURRENT WSW...SO WILL LEAVE IT AS IS FOR NOW...AND TAKE IT DOWN ONCE ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDS. COULD SEE AN ADDL INCH OR TWO...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST IN WRN ME THRU DAY BREAK. FOR THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS THROUGH MIDDAY AT LEAST...BUT MODELS HINTING AT SOME BRIEF MID LVL RIDGING THIS AFT...SO COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN. ALSO..E.XPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE MID LVL RIDGING MOVES IN. MAXES WILL NOT RISE TOO MUCH AS WE SEE SOME CAA MOVE IN...BUT THE DOWNSLOPE SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... BEHIND THE WEAK MID-LVL RIDGING THAT MOVES THRU THIS AFT...IS WEAK TOUGHING...AND MODELS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS AN E-W ORIENTED TROUGH THAT PARALLELS THE ME COAST. THIS COULD SPILL SOME SHSN OR EVEN A SHORT PERIOD OF -SN INTO ROCKINGHAM @CODE AND THE MERRIMACK VLY TONIGHT...BUT LOOKS LIKE BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE IN COASTAL MASS. STILL...MODELS NOT ALWAYS SKILLFUL WITH THESE INVERTED TROUGHS...SO IT BEARS WATCHING. MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE UPPER 20S N...TO MID 30S S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND STARTS OFF COLD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE TEENS A THE COAST AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES HAVE LEANED A BIT COLDER THAN GUIDANCE AS I EXPECT VALLEYS WILL DECOUPLE AND RADIATE WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 40S ON SUNDAY AND EVEN THE LOWS WILL BARELY DIP BELOW FREEZING DUE TO CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY... BRINGING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE COLD AIR. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTY WELL INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES CONSIDERABLY BUT THERE WILL AGAIN BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MID WEEK AS ANOTHER POTENTIAL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARDS. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM...WILL SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. MAINLY VFR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT INVERTED TROUGH COULD PRODUCE IFR AT KPSM TONIGHT LONG TERM...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WILL HOLD GALES AS THEY ARE...THRU 7 AM...BUT WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AT COASTAL LOW TRACKS EWD INTO THE MARITIMES. WILL NEED TO CONVERT GALES TO SCA FOR WINDS THRU THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH THESE WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN UP INTO TONIGHT. LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WIND DIRECTION IS ALSO FAVORABLE TO DRIVE HIGHER WAVES INTO PENOBSCOT BAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ABRUPT SWITCH TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND SCA OR MARGINAL GALES POSSIBLE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.
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&& $$ CANNON

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