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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 281811
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
211 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND MAINE TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO ISSUE A SEVERE TSTM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVE FOR ALL
OF OUR NH ZONES AND OUR WRN/SRN MAINE ZONES.

UPDATED AGAIN TO ADJUST CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS PER RADAR. AREA MOVING
TO THE N ACROSS NH AND WRN AND SRN MAINE AT THIS TIME WITH LITTLE
OR NO PRCP ACROSS OUR OUR NRN AND ERN MAINE ZONES AND PRCP ENDING
OR BECOME LESS SCATTERED OVER OUR SRN MOST AND EXTREME SW ME ZONES.
PRCP WILL EXPAND ACROSS REST OF OUR MAINE ZONES WHILE SRN EDGE OF
PRCP PUSHES FURTHER N ACROSS NH AND SW MAINE. HOWEVER...MORE PRCP
TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AS THE DAY GOES ON. AREAS OF FOG
SOME QUITE DENSE TO LAST THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
NRN NH TO NRN/ERN MAINE ZONES. ANY OTHER CHANGES JUST MINOR BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVED DATA.

PREV DISC:
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH
PWAT`S WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NH/WRN ME TODAY. CONFIDENT
OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO VERY HI POPS ARE FCST
ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT EVEN STILL SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG. HEAVY DOWNPOURS A CERTAINTY AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVG
.75-1.0 INCH MOST AREAS WITH SOME PSBLY HIGHER AMTS. DUE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW STAYING INLAND...LATER IN THE DAY SOME DRIER AIR
MAY TRY TO WORK INTO SRN AREAS IN THE FORM OF A DRY SLOT SO SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING CAN`T BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS
ALL OF THE FA AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH
MIXING WITH THE CONVECTION WIPES OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYERS
AND THE FOG.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS. USED THE HRRR FOR
TIMING ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING
QUITE WELL WITH TIMING. RFCQPF WAS ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRES MOVES OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT ALLOWING A DRIER
CANADIAN AIR MASS TO WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME
EVENING SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TUE
ALLOWING FURTHER CLEARING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GT LAKES FOLLOWS
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WITH A DRY STABLE WLY FLO DEVELOPING.
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG DUE
TO THE UPPER TROF...ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSUN.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TUE REACHING THE MID 70S MOST
AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS/POPS AND TIMING OF CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND
OCCASIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE IN THE CARDS AT
THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BR DRY MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM
MVFR TO LIFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/DENSE F
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE BUT WITH SHRA/TSTMS ON AND OFF THRU THE DAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. CONDS SLOWLY
IMPROVE TNGT TO VFR XCPT MVFR CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MTNS INTO
TUESDAY AND THERE MAY BE SOME F AROUND TNGT DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL
SATURATING LOW LEVELS. SHOULD BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FROM THU THRU SAT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED
DURING THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND MOSTLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF
THE TIME UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENS UP AND PRODUCES SOME
STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPDATED AGAIN TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO MORE THAN A FEW TWEAKS, IF ANY, TO
THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
TODAY BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT WINDS/GUSTS TO REACH SCA LEVELS BY EARLY THIS EVE WHICH
WILL CREATE ROUGH SEAS SO WILL LEAVE THE SCA UP FOR TNGT AND
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A TIME ON THU WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$