


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
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Issued by NWS Portland, ME
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --455 FXUS61 KGYX 110608 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 208 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --Clearing will prevail today but a few showers and thunderstorms are likely over the interior this afternoon and evening. The Bermuda high will be in place through the weekend, supplying mostly dry and warm weather. The ridge breaks down for the start of the new work week, with a return of hit and miss showers. Heat will begin to build by the middle of the next week once again.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Today will see the slow eroding of the low clouds and fog again. Daytime heating will support scattered convection...largely tied to terrain heating since we lack a more synoptic scale lifting mechanism. There is a fairly well defined MCV present across Lake Michigan at this hour...and that could spark more widespread convection. Current model forecast have it over NY in the afternoon...but it will warrant some monitoring this morning to see if that forecast remains on track. After collaborating with neighboring WFOs, did increase PoPs across much of the region for this afternoon and evening based on latest hi-res guidance runs. Winds will be a little more southerly than easterly today...and so temps should be a few degrees warmer than what we saw yesterday. The coolest readings will be along the coast with highs into the 70s while inland locations warm into the lower to middle 80s.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Any lingering convection should end by mid to late evening tonight with the loss of daytime instability. The latest HREF indicates that low-level clouds and fog will likely move back onshore and it could be fairly widespread given light flow and the lingering low-level moisture. Low temperatures will be into the lower to middle 60s. Clouds will likely be more stubborn to scatter out on Saturday as a weak disturbance arrives from the west. This will also introduce a better chance for more widespread scattered showers and rumbles of thunder. Highs will range from the 70s across much of western ME due to the lingering low-level marine deck while western NH may warm into the lower to middle 80s.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --200 AM Long Term Update... Little change in the latest NBM suite of model guidance. A typical Summertime pattern is in store with temperatures into the 80s/lower 90s likely by the middle of next week. Dew points currently do not look to be quite as high though as compared to the last stretch of hot weather. Previously... Overview: High pressure will keep mostly dry conditions through the forecast area Saturday night and Sunday, but will need to watch for afternoon showers or storms near stalled boundary to the west. Additional showers and storms will organize along a incoming cold front Sunday night through Monday. This front will lead to broad ridging into midweek, allowing for another potential stretch of day with hot temperatures. Details: Sunday-Monday: A cold front will advance eastward out of the Great Lakes Sunday. Ahead, onshore flow moderates temperatures w/ areas remaining dry through much of the afternoon. PoPs begin to increase into the evening hours as weak forcing arrives while any daytime instability remains. Presently little conviction on coverage here as low levels are dry. Present rain chances focus on Sunday night-Monday associated with the frontal approach through Mon evening. Because the parent low drives north and occludes over Hudson Bay Sunday, forward progression slows. The result is precip influence from the boundary potentially through Mon night into Tuesday. There will be instability ahead of the front to bring the chance for thunder, mainly during the afternoon. Elevated instability will bring the chance for a few rumbles overnight and evenings as well. On the heels of that weather maker, a return to hot temperatures appears likely should the front move through by Tuesday afternoon. Daytime highs into midweek could again top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s with dewpoints reaching the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Short Term...Low clouds and FG will continue to result in IFR to LIFR restrictions through around 13Z this morning before improving back to VFR at most sites later today. The exception may be at KRKD where MVFR CIGS may linger through much of the day. Isolated SHRA/TSRA is also possible this afternoon and early evening, mainly over inland terminals. Winds will be at 5-15 kts from the south. Low clouds and FG return tonight with additional restrictions likely under light and variable flow. Slow improvements are then expected on Saturday but some lingering restrictions are possible due to low ceilings and scattered -SHRA/-TSRA. No LLWS is anticipated outside of any TSRA. Long Term...Restrictions likely Saturday night into Sunday morning due to low ceilings and FG. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions are likely through early next week outside of any scattered -SHRA/-TSRA and FG.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --Short Term...Winds and seas to remain below SCA thresholds through the period. Marine fog is expected though, especially at night through the morning hours. Long Term...Conditions remain below SCA through the period. There will be the chance for marine stratus and fog to cause reduced visibility through this weekend and into early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for MEZ027-028. NH...None. MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ NEAR TERM...Tubbs SHORT TERM...Tubbs LONG TERM...Cornwell/Tubbs