Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 230749 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 249 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build across the area today allowing mostly sunny skies but cool temperatures. A very weak upper trof will move across the region tonight bringing some clouds and maybe a few flurries in the mountains. High pressure moves off to the east Friday allowing a warmer southwest flow to develop that will continue into Saturday. Another weak cold front crosses the region late Saturday bringing widely scattered rain showers. A cold upper trof settles over the region Sunday with possibly some scattered rain or snow showers and colder temperatures. More high pressure builds in for the start of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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A downsloping northwest flow accompanied by building high pressure will allow mostly sunny skies today. Some clouds may linger in the mountains though through mid morning. Temps will be much cooler with highs ranging from the upper 20s in the mountains to the upper 30s to lower 40s over southern and coastal areas. Used a blend of model mav/met for max temps.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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Tonight a weak upper short wave with very limited moisture will move through the fast zonal flow aloft and through the region. Nothing more than some clouds expected with this short wave. A few flurries are possible in the mountains. Friday a return southwest flow will develop as the surface ridge of high pressure moves off the coast. This will mean a return to warmer temps with highs mostly in the 40s.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Large scale troughing will remain in the area in some form through late next week over the eastern CONUS. A short wave will affect the region Saturday driving a weak cold front through the northeast. This northern stream system moves NE towards Labrador allowing for more zonal WSW flow to move in behind it. In the dailies...a warming trend will peak on Saturday with readings about 4-8 degrees above normal, yielding widespread 40s north and 50s south of the foothills. The cold front will drive temperatures back a few degrees below normal values for Sunday and Monday (normal being around 45 degrees for both Portland and Concord). Chilly nights are expected for both Sunday and Monday nights with lows ranging from the teens north to 20s south. These temperatures will impact p-type for the weekend...but generally we are expecting rain showers transitioning to a rain/snow mix and then just snow for the higher terrain. Any QPF that falls will be light and concentrated across the mountains and foothills. By Tuesday a series of waves will approach with precipitation chances increasing for the mid week period. Northern New England should see another warming trend as warmer air moves in from the southwest. Consensus shows a cold front likely moving through by next Thursday continuing the yo-yoing temperature trend. As for p-type, the warm air in place suggests mainly rain. There may be some snow showers on the backside of the system, but at this time it is too far out to assign much significance.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Short Term...VFR conditions through Friday. Long Term...Periods of MVFR may affect HIE and LEB primarily for the weekend in -SHRA/SN. Residual showers may impact HIE early Monday. VFR expected at all other terminals during this time frame.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term...The northwest winds will continue to diminish today and become more west. Seas over the outer waters remain high and will be slow to subside below 5 ft so a SCA for seas over the outer waters will continue today through Fri morning. Long Term...Wind gusts increase once again to strong SCA levels late Friday into Saturday with 5-8 ft seas. After a brief break Saturday night, winds/seas approach SCA criteria once again late Sunday.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 9 AM EST Friday for ANZ150-152-154.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...Marine SHORT TERM...Marine LONG TERM...Hanes

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