Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 270808 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 308 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL PASS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR CLOUD COVER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. DESPITE AFTERNOON SUN...HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
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CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW NORTH TO 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW SOUTH. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE NORTH WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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MODELS SUGGESTING JUST SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TO 500 MB PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. NOTHING THAT WILL CHANGE THE OVERALL +PNA PATTERN...BUT ENOUGH THAT WILL BRING A STORM TRACK TO OUR WEST AND PUSH SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. 500MB ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN BEFORE A WEAK WAVE APPROACHES SUN NIGHT...AND THEN DIGS TO OUR NE ON MONDAY. SAT NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD WITH LOWS SINGLE BLO ZERO TO THE NORTH...AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY WILL START OFF WITH SUN...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. LOOKS LIKE ANY SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN EVENING. NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS GENERALLY...AS THE SFC LOW DOES NOT INTENSIFY UNTIL IT REACHES THE MARITIMES ON MONDAY MORNING. SO A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE SUNDAY...WITH CLEARING ON MONDAY IN W-NW FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE SHOULD ALLOW THINGS TO WARM AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WHICH IS CLOSE TO NORMAL. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS IN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A DECENT RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT. ALTHOUGH MID-HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING IN ON TUE WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER THAN MON. ANOTHER 500 TROUGH APPROACHES BY TUE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MOST ENERGETIC PART OF IT STAYS NW OF NEW ENGLAND. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT MAIN SFC LOW STAYS TO THE W AS WELL...BUT DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON TIMING...AND WHETHER THERE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LOW ON THE COAST. ANY PRECIP WILL PROB START AS SNOW BUT WITH TRACK TO THE WEST...WILL GET SOME WARM IN ALOFT AT LEAST...AND COULD SEE SOME FZRA OR RA IN THE MIX. AT THIS POINT...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MAJOR SYSTEM...BUT STILL BEYOND DAY 5...AND THIS WINTER THE MODELS CAN CHANGE A LOT IN THAT TIMEFRAME.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LONG TERM...VFR SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THEN A PERIOD OF IFR IN SN SUN NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN ON MON AND TUE.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY TIL 15Z. LONG TERM...SCA LKLY ON MONDAY IN NW FLOW AND POSSIBLE FZ SPRAY MON NIGHT.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150>154.
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&& $$

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