Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 212124 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 524 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... 510 PM UPDATE: MADE MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST FOR POPS/WX NOW AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT TO REFLECT WIDESPREAD SHWR ACTIVITY. INCREASED THE POPS ACROSS THE FA AND INCREASED QPF. SOME AREAS IN NH MAY SEE A GOOD SHOT OF QPF IN THE SHWRS LATE TONIGHT WHILE MAINE PORTIONS QPF AMTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MORE SCT CONVECTIONS IS EXPECTED FRI. ADJUSTMENTS FOR FRI WILL BE UPDATED ON THE NEXT UPDATE. PREV DISC: BAND OF PRECIP THAT CROSSED SW ME...AND BROUGHT SOME MODERATE RAFL...HAS MOVED NE AND WEAKENED. THIS WAS SET OFF BY SOME BRIEF MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS. ALSO...SEEING SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG SFC TD BOUNDARY IN THE ERN ZONES...WHERE THERE HAS BEEN MORE SUN AND HEATING. THESE SHOULD TRACK NNW ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND DIMINISH WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TONIGHT...COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA MOVE INTO SRN AND WRN NH THIS EVENING...BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH AS THEY HEAD EWD TOWARD ME...WITH LITTLE CHC OF ANY PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND MARINE AIR WILL KEEP MINS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 50S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND COULD SEE SOME MID 50 READINGS IN THE MTNS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... ON FRIDAY...LOOK FOR A WEAK 500 MB WAVE TO ALLOW A PUSH OF COOLER AIR IN FROM THE NE...WHICH COULD SET OFF OF SCT SHRA....ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS. GRADIENT FLOW WILL SHIFT TO EAST AND DEEPEN A BIT...SO IT WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S OR LOW 70S. EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FRI NIGHT WITH MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY PUSHES SWD THRU THE REGION ON SAT. AS IT DOES SO A STEADY CLEARING WILL WORK IN FROM N TO S. IF BOUNDARY HANGS UP IN SRN NH...THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT POP UP DURING PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES MOVES IN AND DOMINATES THE WX THRU MIDWEEK. RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVES EWD...BUT WILL REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE W. THIS WILL PREVENT THE SERIOUS HEAT FROM WORKING ALL THE WAY EWD...BUT WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK A COLD FNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W. HOWEVER...ATTM THEY DISAGREE ON TIMING. PREFER THE SLOWER TIMING AT THIS POINT...WITH A VERY BLOCKY PATTERN IN PLACE. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM...COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...PERHAPS DROPPING TO LIFR AT KLEB/KAUG...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FRI AFTERNOON. LONG TERM...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MORNING FOG IN FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE A SURGE OF NE WINDS TO AROUND 15 KTS ON FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...MARINE SHORT TERM...MARINE AVIATION...MARINE

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