Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 250031 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 731 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER MORE DYNAMIC COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE ON IN. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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730PM UPDATE... FINALLY SEEING THE END OF THE SNOW MOVING MORE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE DROPPED THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR HILLSBOROUGH, CHESHIRE, MERRIMACK, AND BELKNAP COUNTIES. SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP THE REST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO AND START CHIPPING AWAY AT THE MAINE HEADLINES AFTER THAT. HAVE FURTHER REFINED FINAL SNOWFALL TOTALS BASED ON LATEST REPORTS AND ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS POINT. 6PM UPDATE... BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO PUSH EAST. FINAL BAND HAS ACTUALLY EXPANDED AS IT MOVED INTO CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE. FIRST REPORT OUT OF THIS BAND WAS ABOUT HALF AN INCH IN 45 MINUTES... SO SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED BEFORE THIS FINALLY MOVES THROUGH. FURTHER EAST... MORE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDCOAST WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THE LONGEST AND MAY REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OF THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. HAVE UPDATED HOURLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REFLECT A LITTLE SLOWER ENDING TO THE SNOW. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED A LITTLE BIT AS WELL... BUT AT THIS LATE STAGE OF THE GAME THERE WILL NOT LIKELY BE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THESE FORECAST NUMBERS. 5PM UPDATE... HEAVY SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE MIDCOAST OF MAINE. HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY WHERE THE HEAVIER BANDS HAVE JUST BEGUN ARRIVING. LATEST REPORTS ARE OF ONLY AN INCH OR TWO SO FAR BUT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. CONTINUE TO WATCH THE BACK EDGE OF SNOW FORMING INTO A MORE INTENSE LINE AS IT VERY SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHWEST MAINE. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BIT OF SNOW BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN. SHOULD BE ABLE TO START DROPPING SOME ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH. IN BETWEEN THIS BAND AND THE COASTAL BANDS THERE MAY EXIST POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... AT 3PM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AND MOVING NORTHEAST. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING. CLOSER TO THE COAST.. BANDS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE IN AS THE LOW PULLS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW AND AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL COMBINE TO GIVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF 1"/HR SNOW RATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DUAL POL RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE MELTING ZONE WELL OFF SHORE... KEEPING THE PTYPE ALL SNOW... HOWEVER AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WILL SEE A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE LOW CLOUD DECK BEFORE CLEARING FINALLY ARRIVES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... THE LOW WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN FOR SUNDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... BOTH BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM REMAIN VERY ACTIVE THIS COMING MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE EASTERN CONUS A DEEP TROUGH IS CARVED OUT AS BLOCKING SETS UP DOWNSTREAM OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS KEEPS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME SPACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SHORT WAVES RIPPLE THROUGH THE TROUGH AND MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. COLD HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY. THE COLDER AIR WILL HAVE INFILTRATED THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH TEMPERATURES NOT ANY HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 20S. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD DAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL HELP INCREASE TEMPERATURES A BIT. AN UPPER LOW CUTS OFF TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST... HOWEVER THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE CENTER JUST OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE ECMWF STEERS IT INSIDE. THE EURO ALSO FAVORS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TO LINGER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE SOME OTHER MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW CENTER JUST OUTSIDE THE GULF OF MAINE. THE DIFFERENCES WOULD TRANSLATE COULD INTO HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS. AN UPSTREAM KICKER PUSHES THE SYSTEM AHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND IT MOVES QUICKLY NNE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BASED ON BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT... HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OR BETTER... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. AGAIN COASTAL ZONES AS WELL AS DOWNEAST WILL SEE THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WHICH SHOULD REACH DOUBLE DIGITS GIVEN DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM... LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FOR PWM...RKD...AND PSM AS THE SNOW CONTINUES. MHT AND CON WILL SEE AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... WITH THE COASTAL SITES RETURNING TO MVFR BY 09Z. VFR WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY. LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR MONDAY WITH MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN HEAVY SNOW. STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS ON WEDNESDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM... LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVING IN BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ON THE OUTER WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. LONG TERM...LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SCA FOR THE BAYS AND GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS COASTAL LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE S AND E. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ022>028. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ014- 018>021. NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ010- 013-014. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ153. GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...KIMBLE SHORT TERM...CURTIS LONG TERM...HANES AVIATION...CURTIS/HANES MARINE...CURTIS/HANES

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