Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 101346 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 946 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THEN GRADUALLY LIFT INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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UPDATE...CURRENT FCST ON TRACK. WILL JUST ADJUST TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY DRIVING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH, A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE WILL DROP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... CLEAR AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WILL SEE A CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S IN THE NORTH AND 50S IN THE SOUTH. MORE SUNSHINE FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NGT SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY GIVING US FAIR WX. A WARM FNT APPROACHES FROM THE SW SATURDAY NGT BRINGING WARMER...MORE HUMID AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR WITH IT. AN UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE TROF ALSO MOVES NE IN THE W SW FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING CONVECTION DEVELOPING SATURDAY NGT. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE CHC FOR SHRA/TSTMS ARRIVING SATURDAY NGT. THE UPPER LVL TROF MOVES BY TO THE NE FOR SUNDAY BUT THE VERY WARM, HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE RESULTING IN A CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS CONTINUING. ANOTHER UPPER LVL TROF MOVES THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVE WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS MORE SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE VERY WARM, HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. YET ANOTHER, THOUGH WEAKER, UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE MOVES IN FROM THE SW TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVE AS IT PINWHEELS AROUND AN UPPER LVL CLOSED LOW LOCATED IN CANADA N OF THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALSO BE SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE E. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES A SFC COLD FNT TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE W. AGAIN WILL HELP FOCUS SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. THE SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED BY FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE. WITH THE UPPER LVL FLOW REMAINING SW ON WEDNESDAY EVEN THOUGH THE FNT SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE ENOUGH WARM, MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MAY BE LEFT OVER THE REGION TO PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSTMS. USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MAINLY VFR FRIDAY NGT THRU SATURDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MOVES IN SATURDAY NGT THRU MONDAY WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LVL IMPULSES HELPING TO FOCUS MORE ORGANIZED SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY WHICH COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS. LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS WINDS AND SEAS WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NGT THRU SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE THE S SW FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED BY A SEA BREEZE CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE AND SEAS TO BUILD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT INCREASE ENOUGH TO CREATE SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS THRU MONDAY. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY PUSH SEAS TO THE 5 FT SCA THRESHOLD OVER THE OPEN WATERS MONDAY NGT. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... TFH

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