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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 081318
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
818 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD LATE WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY THEN MOVES INTO THE
MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
815AM UPDATE...
MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION UP TO 925
MB (+3C). WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING TO MIX UP TO THIS LEVEL WHICH
WHEN EXTRAPOLATED DOWN TO THE SURFACE YIELDS A TEMPERATURE OF 46
DEGREES. AS A RESULT... EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM QUICKLY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE LEVELING OFF. ONE CAVEAT TO THIS IS
CLOUD COVER SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COULD LIMIT
HEATING... BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM RISING WELL
INTO THE 40S. MOUNTAINS ARE IN A COOLER AIR MASS... DO NOT HAVE
THIS SHARP INVERSION... AND WILL BE SEEING COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT TODAY SO TEMPERATURES THERE WILL NOT BE AS WARM. HAVE
UPDATED HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS TO REFLECT
THESE THOUGHTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR PORTLAND SHOULD BE
AROUND 21Z.

MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. SOME OF
THIS CLOUDINESS WILL DIMINISH AS THE MOISTURE ATTEMPTS TO REACH
THE COASTLINE. AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS...ADDED TERRAIN KICK
MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

USED A BLEND OF WARM MAV NUMBERS WITH COOLER MET READINGS. THIS
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY IN QUITE SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A SHORT
WAVE MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION
TONIGHT...WITH JUST SOME CLOUDINESS SKIRTING SOUTHERN AREAS.

IT WILL BE BACK TO CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION REMAINS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE STRONG
MARCH SUN WILL STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S DESPITE H8 TEMPS IN THE -14 TO -16C RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COUPLE OF MINOR CLIPPERS MOVING THRU THE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. COLD
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY. THE BIG QUESTION
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE IF THE DIGGING NORTHERN
TROUGH THRU THE MIDWEST CAN PHASE WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY BEING
KICKED NE FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM. AT THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE
NOT PHASING THE SYSTEMS ALLOWING NOTHING MORE THAN A WEAK NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH TO MOVE THRU ON THURSDAY. THE EURO HAS ALSO BACKED
OFF WITH THE PHASING OF THE SYSTEMS. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
THOUGH SO STAYED WITH THE SUPERBLEND AND MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THRU THE OUTLOOK PERIOD
LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT THE EXTREME COLD OF THE PAST
WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SNOW
SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY BECOMING MVFR SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE ISSUED AN SCA FOR SEAS AS OFFSHORE LOW BRINGS A
FEW 5 AND 6 FOOTERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...
WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRU WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...RM