Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 240351 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1151 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT. AS NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOMORROW IT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BEFORE HEADING INTO THE MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS A THREAT OF RAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... 1150 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT MESONET. PREV DISC... LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT TO SEE SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THE MAY EXPERIENCE SOME DOWNSLOPING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING WE WILL SEE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION TO PRODUCE SOME VERY GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO AROUND 40MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 45MPH OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THINK THEY SHOULD HOLD JUST SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR DISCUSSION ON DEW POINTS AND RH VALUES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS MOVE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...BUT STILL KEEP US DRY THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY OVER NH. LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BEFORE HEADING INTO THE MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD PRCP ACROSS THE REGION FROM W TO E FRIDAY NGT AND CONT THRU SATURDAY NGT. PRCP ENDS FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY NGT AND MONDAY GIVING US A BRIEF BREAK IN PRCP. LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE SW BRINGS A THREAT OF RAIN TUESDAY /MOST LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY/ AND WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...PREVIOUS FCST AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS ENDING AND CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM SW TO NE ON SUNDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF EXITING LOW PRESSURE WILL GENERATE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE WATERS TOMORROW BEFORE SUBSIDING TOMORROW NIGHT. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...NW FLOW PICKS UP BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW AND FNT SUNDAY THRU MONDAY WITH SCA WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. SEAS MAY REACH MINIMAL SCA LEVELS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AS WELL. && .FIRE WEATHER... PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP DRAMATICALLY TOMORROW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY MEET METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA. HOWEVER...NEW HAMPSHIRE FOREST SERVICE IS TELLING US THAT FUELS ARE STILL TOO WET TO BURN SO WE WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW. EXPECT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT TOMORROW. WILL MENTION FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE HWO ALSO. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ ES

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