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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 240632
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
232 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will continue to build across the region into the
mid week period. This will mean well above normal temperatures
during the daytime hours, with a few inland record highs
possible. A cold front looks to sweep across the region late
Wednesday or Thursday with showers and possible thunder. It will
also introduce much cooler air to the region for the late week
period. At this time...it looks like Hurricane Maria will not
be a threat to our region thanks to the cold front sweeping her
out to sea well to our south.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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At 06z...a 1021 millibar high was centered over western
Pennsylvania. A stationary front was draped across Quebec and
the Gaspe peninsula. GOES imagery showed clear skies across the
forecast area under the surface high. We`ll see some valley
stratus and fog develop over the next few hours that should
quickly burn off following sunrise. For today...well above
normal temperatures will continue with highs in the mid 80s to
lower 90s. It`ll be cooler near the coast however as the light
synoptic flow turns onshore.

A Climate section was included below to mention Concord`s
potential for record high temperatures today and Monday.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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Tonight will be mostly clear under the ridge with low temperatures
in the 50s and 60s. We`ll see valley stratus and fog develop
once again. Monday will be another unseasonably warm day with
high temperatures similar to today. There could be an isolated
shower or thunderstorm over the higher terrain...otherwise
another dry and humid day across the region.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Warmth continues Monday night into Tuesday as a large upper
level ridge remains intact over the Northeast. H8 temperatures
around +18C with sunshine and good mixing will allow readings to
top out in the lower to mid 80s most locations. Upper 70s
expected along the coast due to an afternoon sea breeze.

Models have backed off on the backdoor cold front, however there
could be an east, southeast flow briefly developing over
northern New England Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

During the day Wednesday, upper level moisture associated with
Maria may move up the coast from off of North Carolina, bringing
filtered sunshine into the region. A cold front will approach
from the west. As this system approaches, there will be widely
scattered showers during the day. Modest instability may trigger
a thunderstorm or two over northern areas as well.

These showers and isolated storms over northern sections will
continue Wednesday night as the front sweeps through the region.
Canadian high pressure will then slowly build south and east on
Thursday, bringing cooler air to the region. Daytime highs will
reach the 70s however, which is still well above normal.

The surface high will remain in place Friday, before a large
scale upper level trough approaches the region for next weekend.
During the period, Maria`s moisture will likely remain just
south and east of Maine and New Hampshire.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Short Term /through Monday/...VFR conditions except some Lcl
LIFR btw 09z-12z today and Monday along the CT River Valley in
stratus and fog.


Long Term...VFR Monday through Wednesday. Areas of MFR ceilings Wednesday
night and early Thursday morning.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Short Term /through Monday/...Winds and seas expected to remain
below SCA threshold for the period under building area of high
pressure.

Long Term...Winds and seas will remain below SCA thresholds.
Long period swells may arrive from hurricane Maria late in the
week.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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There is a moderate risk of rip currents today on all area
beaches.
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&&

.CLIMATE...
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High temperature records may be in jeopardy in NH today and
Monday. The record for today, the 24th in Concord NH is 90
degrees and occurred in 2010; the record for Monday, the 25th in
Concord NH is 89 degrees and occurred in 1970. The forecasted
high for both days is 89 degrees.
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&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...Schwibs
SHORT TERM...Schwibs
LONG TERM...Cannon