Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 291907 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 307 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A front stalled to our south will return north as a warm front early Monday. This front will be preceded by showers and a few thunderstorms through Monday morning. A warm humid air mass will follow the warm front on Monday afternoon with another round of showers and thunderstorms expected. Tropical moisture from the remnants of Bonnie will be entrained in the frontal system and could produce heavy rainfall and localized drainage flooding on Memorial day. Two cold fronts will cross the area Monday and Tuesday night with high pressure and drier air to follow Wednesday and Thursday. An upper level trough could produce some rain FRiday or Saturday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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At 18z a 1005 millibar low was centered over the upper Great Lakes with a warm/stationary front extending southeast through southern New England. To the north of this frontal boundary... easterly flow persisted with extensive low cloud found across the forecast area. With the exception of the upper Connecticut valley...GOES visible imagery showed broken to overcast conditions across the forecast area. NWS doppler radar mosaic showed a broken area of convection along and to the north of the 850 millibar warm front with activity impacting northern and mountain sections at moment. Additional activity over western New England could reach the Connecticut valley this evening. For tonight...the stalled front begins to push northward...but it won`t clear most of our northern and eastern forecast area until tomorrow afternoon as southwest flow in the low levels increases towards dawn. Convection will gradually increase in coverage overnight as overrunning increases.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As mentioned above...the warm front will work north and east across much of Maine and extreme Northern New hampshire on Monday morning leaving the entire forecast area in the warm sector by monday afternoon. Monday morning will feature an area of showers and thunderstorms that will push north and east and taper to scattered showers and thunderstorms following the warm frontal passage. we`ll warm into the 70s...with the exception of midcoast Maine because of the onshore trajectory...and it`ll be a humid day with dewpoints rising into the 60s. We should see sufficient heating from the Connecticut valley northward through the Maine mountains and foothills for scattered showers and thunderstorms to developing during the afternoon ahead of the cold front. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible as tropical moisture from the remnants of Bonnie will be entrained into the frontal system. A few of the stronger cells could also produce gusty winds. Any lingering convection will end by late Monday evening as the cold front sweeps offshore. Low level moisture and clearing skies should result in areas of fog Monday night behind the departing frontal system.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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high impact wx: none expected. Models continue to trend toward a more zonal jet that will reside just n of the US/Canada border. Will see one low wave exiting at the start of the long range, and another moving in at the end of the week, with ridging in between. Although 850 mb temps will generally be above normal, a lack of decent low level flow will allow onshore flow to develop, and keep sfc temps closer to normal, or even below normal, along the coast. The warmest day will be Tuesday, as will have to wait for upper level trough to drag the secondary cold front through the CWA, which will lower humidity and cool things down a bit. Still, highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Might see a few showers or storms across the far nrn zones...but weak dynamics and lack of instability should prevent much else from happening with the fropa. Wednesday and Thursday should be fair. Both days will feature a sea breeze, but Thursday will see the marine lyr move further inland as there will be an onshore pres gradient. Highs Wed will be from 70-80, and on Thursday mid 60s on the coast to mid-upper 70s further inland. Overnight lows Wed and Thu night will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s, fairly close to normal. 500 mb trough approaches from the west Friday and moves into New England on Sat. Models are lingering remnant tropical system off the Carolina coast through most of the week before it gets picked up by that trough. A lot of what happens with the front will depend on that, and confidence is low in this regard. Have chancepops in the forecast for Fri and Fri night, but just kept slight for Sat, which leans toward the ECMWF.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Short Term /through 12z Tuesday/...MVFR and LCL ifr tonight in ceilings and fog along with sct -shra/ and isold -tsra. On Mon...conds improve to vfr throughout btw 12 and 16z following a warm frontal passage with areas of mvfr btw 18z and 02z Tue in shra/tsra. Areas of MVFR and lcl IFR aft 06z Tue in valley stratus and fog. Long Term...Mainly VFR, with the exception of possible vly fog Wed and Thu night.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term /through Monday night/...winds and seas expected to remain below SCA threshold. However...there will be periodic vsby restrictions in fog, haze, and thunderstorms through Monday evening. Long Term...May see some winds approach SCA Tuesday afternoon, but otherwise, fairly quiet on the waters through the rest of the week.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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Cool...onshore flow will dominate most of the area into tonight. Relative humidity values will remain moderate to high region-wide. On Mon tropical moisture associated with Bonnie will stream into the area. Showers are likely...with some possibly heavy at times. A wetting rain looks most likely across southern areas.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR/SHORT TERM...Schwibs LONG TERM...Cempa

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