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FXUS61 KGYX 100240 AAA
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
1040 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will continue into Thursday as a frontal
boundary waffles just south of the area, before clearing out by
Friday. The Bermuda high will be in place through the weekend,
supplying mostly dry and warm weather. The ridge breaks down
for the start of the new work week, with a return of hit and
miss showers and warming temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Northwestern portions of the forecast area continue to hold onto
some meager MUCAPE...but it is sustaining isolated convection at
times. There is not much in the way of organized forcing...so I
will keep slight chance to chance PoP going thru most of the
night.

Otherwise there will be some threat for fog to move inland
tonight. It is currently masked by higher clouds on
satellite...but the peeks I am able to see show it moving
westward across the Gulf of ME. Hi-res guidance suggests this
will arrive at the local coastline between midnight and 2 AM. I
have used the latest HRRR for timing...but left things at
visibility higher than dense fog criteria given the uncertainty.

As we near sunrise the synoptic situation changes. A S/WV trof
will pivot into the St. Lawrence River Valley and the upper jet
will begin to strengthen. The forecast area will be in the right
entrance region of that jet streak...and the resulting forcing
for ascent will support more widespread coverage in convection
by morning. Heading into the afternoon...diurnal heating will
lead to greater instability and more robust convection. While
the strongest storms should remain west of the forecast area
based on latest ensemble and machine learning guidance...the
PWAT values will remain elevated and torrential rainfall will be
possible with any shower or storm. Once again we will have to
keep a close eye on training storms for any flooding potential.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Tomorrow looks wetter overall than today, with more widespread
showers and some scattered thunderstorms. After the bulk of the
morning activity, storms likely develop again the afternoon
across western areas where more sunshine and warmer temperatures
are expected through the daytime. Highs likely warm into the
upper 70s through the Connecticut River Valley, helping to fuel
the afternoon storms, while low to mid 70s are expected
elsewhere with more showery conditions.

Showers diminish again tomorrow evening as the front presses a
little further south of the area. Northern areas likely hold
onto the scattered shower activity the longest as storms weaken
and drift northeastward through the evening and early overnight
hours. Temps cool a bit more tomorrow night, with lows generally
expected to dip into the upper 50s to low 60s across the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Takeaway:Typical summertime pattern expected over the long term.
High pressure builds in over the weekend, followed up by a series of
weak upper level systems that will push across the area bringing
unsettled hit/miss weather through the rest of the work-week. Hit or
miss showers possible, but no widespread rainmakers or otherwise
significant weather anticipated at this time.

High pressure will begin sliding into the region during the day on
Friday as the front that brought showers and thunderstorms on
Thursday departs eastwards off the coast. Orographic lift forced by
westerly flow over the mountains may cause some scattered afternoon
showers and thunderstorms but most of the coastal plains area should
be relatively quiet. The 500 mb ridge and the subsequent surface
high builds in further on Saturday and into Sunday likely bringing
warm and dry conditions. Light flow could support sea fog
development and will need to watch for any coastal impacts both
Saturday and Sunday mornings. Into the latter parts of Sunday and
beyond, the ridge breaks down with a more zonal flow developing.
Subtle shortwaves in the 500 mb flow regime combined with typical
summer-like moisture and diurnal instability could allow for more
showers and thunderstorms to develop early next week. However,
because of the subtleness of these features and our temporal
proximity to the event, confidence is low at the timing of each
wave. There is also a signal for the middle of next week for
anomalously warm and humid conditions as another 500 mb ridge builds
back into the region so will have to keep an eye on that as
well.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...VFR to MVFR ceilings lower to IFR with a low
stratus deck at most terminals tonight. Scattered showers are
possible at most terminals late tonight and into Thursday
morning. The stratus deck will be slow to lift through the
morning tomorrow, with MVFR possible by the early afternoon.
Scattered showers and storms are possible at HIE and LEB
tomorrow afternoon. Ceilings likely lower again to MVFR to IFR
tomorrow night.

Long Term...Quiet weather Friday into Sunday, with only an isolated
threat of showers with reduced flight cats. Late night and early
morning fog and stratus in the valleys and sea coast will also be
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Conditions remain below SCA levels as a stalled
front lingers south of the waters. Areas of fog continue to
bring reduced visibility through at least Thursday.


Long Term...Expect similar to above through the weekend and much of
the work week. There will be a slight downward trend in the winds
over the weekend with the surface high overhead. Waves primary SSE
swells and winds for the majority of the forecast, with no
significant periods above 8 seconds expected.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Legro