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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 071305
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
805 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MAINE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY... WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND
EARLY ON MONDAY... FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
8AM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON THIS MORNING`S OBSERVATIONS.
VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. MANY MODELS SHOW A DRAMATIC
INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON TODAY...
HOWEVER... LOOKING UPSTREAM THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE
JUSTIFICATION FOR THIS RAPID MOISTENING. AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS ACROSS MASSACHUSETTS... WITH FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE AXIS
OUT OF THE NORTH (PUSHING ANY MORE MOIST AIR SOUTHWARD) WHILE FLOW
TO THE NORTH OF THIS AXIS WILL BE SOUTHERLY (BUT LACKS A SOURCE OF
MOIST AIR). AIR ALOFT IS ALSO STILL VERY DRY SO DAYTIME MIXING WILL
ONLY ACT TO KEEP THINGS DRY. HAVE LOWERED DEWPOINTS SO THAT THE
INCREASE IS NOT AS EXTREME TODAY. WILL LIKELY STILL SEE VERY LOW
HUMIDITY TODAY. ALSO INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES BASED ON THIS
MORNING`S GYX SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS WARM/DRY LAYER ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE MANY MODEL
FORECASTS AS THEY DID YESTERDAY. DRY AIR WARMS UP MORE QUICKLY
THAN MOIST AIR UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

645AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS USING THE 11Z OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
THE REGION. NEARLY FULL SUN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING TODAY FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN MANY DAYS. A FEW CLOUDS MAY ENTER THE REGION LATER
TODAY UNDER A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NORTHEAST GRADIENT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE LATER
TODAY WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER OUR REGION DURING THE DAY. MOST OF
THE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS
WELL...ALLOWING FOR BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND WARMING MARCH
TEMPERATURES. WARMING OF THE COLUMN WILL ALLOW SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK IN MOST AREAS
TODAY...WHICH HAS BEEN ELUSIVE FOR MUCH OF THE LAST COUPLE WEEKS.
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR MAXES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...SO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO THE UPSLOPE REGION OF THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR
WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER NOT BEFORE ADDITIONAL MELTING OCCURS WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 30S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THRU A WNW FLOW ALOFT AND MAY POSSIBLY
PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED SO NO ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. ON WEDNESDAY A LARGE CANADIAN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SE INTO
THE REGION WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES YET AGAIN. AT THE SAME
TIME MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW TO HANDLE A STRONG PIECE
OF ENERGY MOVING THRU THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY POSSIBLY ALLOWING A COASTAL LOW TO DEEPEN AND MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND NE TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE. THE EURO
CONTINUES TO INSIST ON A TRACK THAT WOULD PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL WHILE OTHER MODELS TRACK THE SYSTEM TOO FAR S FOR ANY
SNOW AT ALL. FOR NOW WILL HEDGE AND KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR LATE
IN THE WEEK DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK.
STAYED CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT BRIEFLY MVFR IN ANY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA...HOWEVER
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING GRADIENT MAY LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRU TUESDAY. LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE