Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 250000 AAA AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 700 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN LATE TODAY INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT ONLY A FEW SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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.UPDATE... MINOR UPDATE FOR INCLUSION OF RECENT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH WARM RAIN EVENT ONGOING. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WITH SOME CLEARING NOW DEVELOPING IN WESTERN NY STATE. THIS WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES NH PROVIDING A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION.
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&& PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLC STATES WILL GRADUALLY PUSH NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD ENTER THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...A SLUG OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD AID IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN TO MOVING S TO N ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WE HAVE ONCE AGAIN LOWERED QPF AMOUNTS AS THE LACK OF SUSTAINED SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MITIGATE RAINFALL. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...AND THIS STAGNANT AIR MASS MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF DENSE FOG. WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT ON THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS AS LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD HOLD THE LLJ AT BAY. NEAR-ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD OCCUR ON THE IMMEDIATE MID COAST...BUT THE FORECAST IS TO STAY UNDER AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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STRONG COLD FRONT OR OCCLUSION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...A WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN NH. NOT REALLY SURE HOW FAR NORTH IT MAKES IT...BUT IT MAY JUST REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NH BEFORE AN OCCLUSION MOVES THROUGH. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 WILL BE POSSIBLE. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...30S AND 40S WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A WARM OCCLUSION MOVES THROUGH AND PERHAPS PUSHES TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE FALLING BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIST PRIOR TO THE MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEREAFTER...CLEARING SKIES WILL TAKE PLACE AND WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDDAY. A FEW 50 MPH GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...AND AN ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED. JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS TIME. CONTINUED CLEARING AND BREEZY THU NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND A LARGE RIDGE IS SET UP OVER THE REGION. WEATHER WILL BE QUITE NICE AS TEMPS SHOULD PEAK OUT ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED AND ONLY EXPECTING A FEW SCATTERED AND LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO POP UP FROM IT. EARLY NEXT WEEK...A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PLAIN STATES. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE ADVERTISING A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...BUT THE 12Z RUNS HAVE COMPLETELY LOST THIS FEATURE NOW. THE PATTERN IS CERTAINLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT AND THE MODELS MAY PICK THIS FEATURE UP AGAIN AS WE ARE STILL 6 TO 7 DAYS OUT. IT CAN BE NOTED THAT A FEW OF THE EURO/GGEM ENSEMBLES ARE STILL SHOWING A STORM...SO FOR NOW I JUST WENT WITH SLIGHT POP OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALMOST ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KHIE WHERE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD KEEP CEILINGS AT MVFR OR BETTER. A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN IN SOME AREAS. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG ALOFT...SO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR/TURBULENCE WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TOMORROW AND PUSH OUT THE MOISTURE...BRINGING ALL SITES BACK TO VFR BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THIS FRONT. LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI AND SAT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH COLD FRONT SUN. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...GALES REMAIN LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WE PUSHED THEM BACK TIL LATER TONIGHT AS THEY SHOULD BE SLOWER TO MATERIALIZE DUE TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY GUSTING AROUND 40 KT DURING THE DAY ON THU. LONG TERM...WINDS WILL BE STARTING TO EASE BY FRIDAY MORNING BUT SCA WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD BY THE WEEKEND AND WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE ONLY CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS BEING SUNDAY WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT. && .HYDROLOGY...
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1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MAY PRESENT SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS AS WELL AS URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH UP AS IS DUE TO A MOISTURE-LADEN AIRMASS IN PLACE...BUT THE THREAT IS DIMINISHING.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR SPLASH-OVER MAY OCCUR AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE MIDDAY ON THURSDAY. TONIGHT/S MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE IS THE LOWER OF THE CYCLE AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ISSUES.
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&& .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE TIED OR SET AT PORTLAND AND CONCORD CHRISTMAS DAY. THE HIGHEST CHRISTMAS DAY TEMPERATURES ON RECORD ARE 56 FOR CONCORD IN 1889...AND 53 AT PORTLAND IN 1994. ALSO...RECORD HIGHS FOR MOUNT WASHINGTON ARE 38 FOR THE 24TH AND 42 FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. BOTH WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014- 018>022. NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>013-015. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ153. GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>152- 154.
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&& $$ UPDATE...HANES

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