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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 111331
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
931 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AND TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY WITH SNOW ENDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND COLD AIR BEING PULLED IN BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN
FOR FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL UPDATE TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVED DATA. HAVE LOWERED THE CHC OF
PRCP THIS MORNING BASED ON RADAR AND SFC OBS. JUST ISOLD /MAYBE
SCT THIS MORNING/ -SHSN OR MIXED -SHRASN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY. W NW FLOW PICKS UP ENOUGH TO HELP CLR SKIES OUT ESPECIALLY
OVER DOWNSLOPE AREAS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL HANG ONTO MORE
CLOUDINESS DUE TO UPSLOPING W NW FLOW. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF LOW ST AND F AROUND SOME AREAS AT THIS TIME WHICH IS SLOW
TO LIFT...BUT SHOULD BURN OFF WITH TIME. TEMPS WILL BE MILD THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 N AND IN THE 40S S. SOME SRN TOWNS
MAY EVEN HIT 50 THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO THE WEST.
PCPN WILL BE HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFT 09Z OVER SRN AREAS OF NH AND
TOWARD MORNING OVER EXTREME SRN ME. ANY PCPN WILL START AS SNOW
WITH NO ACCUMS EXPECTED BY WED MORNING. USED A BLEND OF THE
GFS/NAM/EURO FOR TIMING OF THE ONSET AND ALSO POPS AND TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

OVERALL...00Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE DATA HAVE WARMED AGAIN
AND ARE SPREADING MIXED PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. THIS
SHOULDN/T BE ALL THAT SURPRISING GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID AND
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS PASSING TO OUR WEST.
THEREFORE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO
WARM A LITTLE MORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS. QPF CONTINUES TO
BE QUITE HEAVY. SO...IT APPEARS WE/LL HAVE A PLETHORA OF HAZARDS.

IN THE WESTERN MAINE AND NORTHERN WHITE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE
FOOTHILLS...HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED WHICH COULD POSSIBLY BE MIXED
WITH A LITTLE SLEET FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. SHOULD SEE A GOOD
10 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW THERE. THE WATCH HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO A
WARNING IN THOSE AREAS.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE PICTURE IS MORE MUDDLED DUE TO WARM AIR
ADVECTING IN AT THE SFC AND THE MID LEVELS. MOST AREAS SHOULD
START AS SNOW...BUT A TRANSITION TO A MIXED BAG IS VERY
LIKELY...PROBABLY AS FAR NORTH AS A PIERMONT NH - SKOWHEGAN ME
LINE. NEAR THAT TRANSITION ZONE...A HEALTHY DOSE OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET. FURTHER
SOUTH...INCLUDING SOUTHERNMOST NH AND THE COAST OF MAINE...PLAIN
RAIN WILL PROBABLY COME INTO PLAY FOR A TIME...AND MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY CUT DOWN ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND HAS
BEEN ACCOUNTED FOR IN OUR LATEST SNOWFALL FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS UP SINCE THE TRANSITION ZONE WILL
LIKELY WAVER AROUND A BIT...AND MAY INDEED RESULT IN A HAZARDOUS
ACCUMULATION OF MIXED PRECIPITATION...EVEN IF SOME AREAS DO NOT
SEE 6 INCHES OF SNOW. AM CURRENTLY FORECASTING A NARROW STRIPE OF
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF ICE AWAY FROM THE COAST.

NO WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE ROCKINGHAM...COASTAL YORK
AND COASTAL CUMBERLAND COUNTIES AT THIS TIME AS IT APPEARS
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WX MIX WILL BE MITIGATED THERE...UNTIL
PERHAPS SOMETIME LATER WED NIGHT OR THURS MORNING. WHAT MAY BECOME
A HAZARD THOUGH IS HEAVY RAIN THERE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAIN WITH MELTING SNOW AND
POSSIBLY SOME CLOGGED STORM DRAINS COULD PRESENT AN URBAN FLOODING
ISSUE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A FLOOD WATCH...ESPECIALLY IF
TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE A BIT MORE NORTH WITH THE WARM AIR.

WINDS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE WED NIGHT INTO THURS...WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES IN AREAS
THAT ARE RECEIVING A HEAVY WET SNOW AND/OR ICE.

SYSTEM WINDS DOWN THURS AFTERNOON...WITH FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDS
IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. VFR CONDS ALL AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
SNOW...RAIN...AND MIXED PRECIP. GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AS WELL. VFR
FOR FRIDAY...WITH POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY WITH COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...WILL UPDATE TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA WITH A FEW MINOR CHANGES. STILL WINDS AND SEAS STAY
BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALE WATCH POSTED FOR ALL WATERS WED AFTN THROUGH
THURS EVENING FOR PERIODS OF 35-40 KT GUSTS WITH COASTAL STORM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ018>022-025>028.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ006>010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ001>005.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$