Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 241111 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 611 AM EST WED DEC 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN LATE TODAY INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME WINTRY WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST LATEST MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS. PREV DISC... AT 07Z...SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LIGHT NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CONCERN THAT WITH COLD AIR DAMMING...FROZEN GROUND AND BORDERLINE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON MESONET...THAT NORTHERN COOS INTO WESTERN MAINE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. I`VE SPLIT OFF THE ORIGINAL FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREA AND EXTENDED IT UNTIL 10 AM FOR THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND TODAY AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES LATE AHEAD OF POTENT JET AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE COASTAL FRONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AHEAD OF THE COLD/OCCLUDED SURFACE FRONT WITH INDICES HINTING AT ISOLATED THUNDER. THE COAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF PORTLAND MAY MIX SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. RAIN QUICKLY ENDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. QPF TOTALS OF AROUND 2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. GOOD POST FRONTAL MIXING EXPECTED...IN COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. HIGHS COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH 60F ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE FOR A PERIOD THURSDAY EVENING...WITH A STRONG GRADIENT ALIGNED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER ME/NH. THEREAFTER WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. A COLD FRONT AND A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...TRIGGERING A FEW SCATTERED AND LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE PLAIN STATES. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE NH COASTLINE BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WOULD BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT IN RAIN/DRZL/AREAS OF FOG. LLWS EXPECTED TONIGHT. CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR BY THU AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY SFC WIND ALONG THE COAST CUD GUST TO 35 KT TONIGHT...AND TO 35 KT FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THU. LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI AND SAT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH COLD FRONT SUN. LOW PRESSURE WILL HEAD NORTHEAST...BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS BY MONDAY NIGHT IN SNOW. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE WITH GALES EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. LONG TERM... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY THU NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS NORTHEAST NEXT MONDAY NIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 00Z/25TH- 00Z/26TH. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF QPF WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE RFCQPF FCST. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE SOURCE REGION FOR THIS SYSTEM COMING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MODEL TRAJS SHOWING THAT MUCH OF THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL MOVE NORTH UP THE COAST INTO OUR REGION. CONSIDERING THE VERY HIGH PWATS FORECAST, THE MODELS MAY BE OFF BY AN INCH OR TWO. IF SO, RIVERS WILL RESPOND SO THE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. CURRENTLY ALL OUR RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGES ASSUMING TOTAL RAINFALL OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS LIKELY GIVEN QPF AND FROZEN GROUND. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE 11.2 FT HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON AT 1216 PM (IN PORTLAND). THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING THE PORTLAND AND HAMPTON TIDES TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE AS WE APPROACH OUR HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OF THE MONTH. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH TIDES AND ALSO BUILDING SEAS. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE TIED OR SET AT PORTLAND AND CONCORD CHRISTMAS DAY. THE HIGHEST CHRISTMAS DAY TEMPERATURES ON RECORD ARE 56 FOR CONCORD IN 1889...AND 53 AT PORTLAND IN 1994. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>022. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ023. NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>013-015. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NHZ001. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NHZ002>004. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ014. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
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