Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 240231 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1031 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will slowly move north off the coast tonight through Tuesday and will dissipate over the Gulf of Maine Tuesday night. A cold front will slowly drop south through the region on Wednesday. A narrow ridge of high pressure will build over the area Wednesday night and will hold over the region on Thursday as a warm front approaches from the west. The warm front will stall over the region Thursday night and Friday and will finally push east of the region on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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1025 pm...Some minor tweaking to the forecast, but overall thinking is unchanged. Overnight will remain dry, with just an increasing chance of showers in NH, along the MA border toward daybreak. Elsewhere any showers look to hold off until daylight hours of Tuesday. Some patchy fog will develop along the coast as the lowering temps and sustained weak onshore flow come together. 7 pm...Updated POPs to reflect a brief period of isolated showers/sprinkles in rockingham and southern york county, although these should be fairly light and transient, only lasting thru about 00z. Otherwise, should be dry through the evening with the threat of showers increasing toward daybreak in southern NH. Previously...Clouds will be on the increase overnight as weak low pressure slowly moves north off the east coast. Increasing onshore flow will will bring ocean stratus into southern zones after midnight. Along with the clouds will come a chance of showers toward morning in southern New Hampshire and coastal Maine. Lows overnight will range from the upper 40s in the north to the lower 50s in the south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 7 pm update...Did some tweaking for Tuesday pops as best forcing aloft works from SE to NW during the day. Onshore flow will keep the clouds around...especially near the coast...but the highest pops will shift inland over the course of the day. A few convective cells are possible with some thunder as well...and could make it to the coast given some elevated instability over the marine layer. Previously...Tuesday looking gloomy with scattered showers and areas of drizzle. Should see some sunny breaks in the afternoon across the Connecticut valley and northern New Hampshire and with a fair amount of instability...should see showers and thunderstorms developing in these areas. Marine layer will hold temperatures in southern New Hampshire and southern Maine in the 60s. Northern zones and the Connecticut valley will reach the lower to mid 70s. Low pressure will dissipate over the Gulf Maine Tuesday night. After a chance of evening showers looking for partial clearing overnight. Lows will be fairly uniform across the forecast area dipping into the upper 40s to lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A short wave trough will be overhead at the beginning of the period Wednesday with another smaller impulse pushing a cold front through the region during the day. This will trigger widespread showers as the front moves SW...beginning in the afternoon and lasting through the evening. Thunderstorms are expected as well with lapse rates approaching 7 C/km in the 850-500 mb layer and ample CAPE...especially if we get any breaks in cloud cover. Westerly downsloping winds will help temperatures warm into the 70s and 80s both Wednesday and Thursday. Thursday will be the odd precipitation free day of the week although a warm front approaches late Thursday night. Friday and Saturday northern New England will be in near zonal flow as short waves to our north slowly flatten our ridge. By Sunday we begin to see more troughing appear aloft as the ridging is suppressed. At the surface Friday onshore flow and Canadian high pressure builds in from the NE bringing temperatures down several degrees. A baroclinic zone will remain in the area through the end of the weekend keeping lower level winds onshore through the first part of the holiday weekend and showers in the area. On Saturday a cold front will be poised to cross the region bringing showers and possibly thunderstorms. Dense high pressure builds in from the north for Sunday. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term...MVFR/IFR ceilings developing after midnight in southern New Hampshire and southern Maine. IFR/LIFR ceilings Tuesday...improving to VFR Tuesday night. Long Term...MVFR/IFR in showers and thunderstorms especially for KHIE...KAUG...and KRKD as a cold front crosses the region late Wednesday into Thursday. VFR Thursday with showers moving in from the west Friday causing MVFR/IFR conditions through late Friday night. Additional MVFR/IFR showers Saturday from north to south as a cold front drops down from Canada. && .MARINE... Short Term...Continuing SCA`s for seas through 600 pm. Long Term...Winds and seas remain calm for most of the week with weak surface boundaries settling in the area. && .FIRE WEATHER... Scattered showers and thunderstorms and high RH will keep fire danger low on Tuesday. Although temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s much of the week showers are expected almost every day this week. Wind speeds will be low. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Cempa/Sinsabaugh SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE... FIRE WEATHER...

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