Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 041828 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 228 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO NEW ENGLAND...ALONG WITH COOL...ONSHORE WINDS. ONE PERIOD COMES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG TONIGHT AS IT GRADUALLY UNDERGOES CYCLOGENESIS AND MOVES NORTHEAST...WELL OFF THE COASTLINE. THE PTYPE WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...BUT SLEET OR SNOW PELLETS MAY CONTINUE AT TIMES OVER MOUNT WASHINGTON. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... PERIODS OF RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. THE EURO APPEARS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT CROSSES THE BENCHMARK THURSDAY EVENING. DUE TO THIS DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR ALONG THE COAST...IN PARTICULAR THE MIDCOAST REGION WHERE OVER AN INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIP MAY TAPER TO SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO WINDS BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CHILLY...WITH 40S TO LOWER 50S MAINLY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MEAN TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN DURING THE PERIOD WITH A SOME RAINY/SHOWERY PERIODS. IN THE DAILIES...ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS COOL AND CLOUDY ON FRIDAY. IT WON/T BE A WASHOUT BUT SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME. THE SAME GOES FOR SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO TRAVERSE THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. WE MAY GET A BREAK FROM THE REAL CRUDDY WEATHER ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SHOT OF A DRY DAY THEN. THEREAFTER...FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A LOT OF MODEL SPREAD EXISTS WHERE A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT SETS UP. IF IT SETS UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...RAINY WEATHER WILL RETURN. HOPEFULLY IT SETS UP SOUTH OF THERE AND ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF NICE DAYS TUE AND WED. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR WITH LOCALLY LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOP. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...WITH A VERY SLOW AND SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STUBBORN LOW PRESSURE NEARBY ALLOWS FOR LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS IN RAIN/SHOWERS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BUILDING THROUGH THURSDAY AND THE SCAS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL PROBABLY HOLD AT LOW-END SCA CRITERIA DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. && .FIRE WEATHER... DAYS OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH WETTING RAINS ON AND OFF THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER LOW. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL COMBINE WITH A DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. COORDINATED WITH WFO BOX AND PLAN TO HANDLE ANY POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES WITH ADVISORIES ON THURSDAY...IF NEEDED AT ALL...IN AREAS FROM PORTLAND AND POINTS SOUTH. THEREFORE NO WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED THIS PACKAGE. NART BASED WAVE RUNUP MATRICES CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME EROSION BEGINNING THE THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE ALONG COASTAL YORK COUNTY. HOWEVER...NEARSHORE WAVES WILL ONLY BE AROUND 5-6 FEET. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ151- 153. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM...CANNON SHORT TERM...CANNON LONG TERM...EKSTER

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