Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 030848 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 348 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT TRYING TO PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO OUR NORTH...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DRAG TRAILING WARM AND COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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SFC HIGH PASSING TO THE S OF THE CWA HAS FINALLY ALLOWED WINDS TO DIMINISH AND WE WILL START THE DAY WITH SUNSHINE WHICH SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING. THE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ROLL ING AROUND MIDDAY AS WAA KICKS INTO GEAR ALOFT...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. DETAILS OF THE THIS SYSTEM ARE ADDRESSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION...BUT WILL START TO SEE SNOW BREAK OUT IN SRN AND WRN NH IN THE 4-6 PM TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS TODAY WILL WARM WITH THE SUN THIS MORNING AND THEN MORE SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH THE CLOUDS...BUT INCREASING S FLOW THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SLOWLY MOVING UPWARD THRU THE AFTERNOON...RISING TO THE LOW-MID 20S IN THE N AND UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 IN THE S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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MAIN CORE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH DEEPER SFC LOW AND 500MB CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR N AND W...BUT BROAD AREA OF STRONG WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA FROM SW-NE OVERNIGHT...AND MOSTLY FOCUSED ON THE 00-06Z TIME PERIOD. SO BULK OF THE SNOW WILL HIT THIS EVENING INTO THE POST-MIDNIGHT HOURS. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW IN THIS TIME FRAME. THE SW WINDS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MIXING TO THE SFC OVERNIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE RISING...WILL LKLY BE STUCK BLO FREEZING...AND WITH ABV FREEZING AIR MOVING ALOFT...COULD SEE A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN AS THE PRECIP ENDS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND LIMITED TO SRN NH AND SW ME /YORK AND SERN CUMBERLAND COUNTIES/. A WIDESPREAD 3-5 INCHES LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN QPF OF A QUARTER TO JUST UNDER A HALF INCH. IN ALL BUT NRN AND ERN...RATIOS WILL START IN THE 13-15 TO 1 RANGE...BUT WILL GET CLOSER TO 8-10 TO 1 AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...SO THIS WILL BE A WETTER SNOW THAN MOST OF US ARE USED TO THIS WINTER...AND COULD LEAD TO SLIGHT LOWER AMTS IN S NH AS WELL. ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE 00Z REG CMC...WHICH HAS NOTICABLY LOWER QPF. ONCE WE BREAK OUT INTO THE WARM SECTOR WED MORNING A BREEZY W-SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WITH EVEN THE MTNS SEEING UPPER 30S...AND BREAKS OF SUN OUTSIDE THE MTNS MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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IN SHORT...A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THE WESTERN RIDGE GRADUALLY FLATTENS AND MOVES ONSHORE INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WHILE WE SEE LINGERING TROFINESS HERE IN THE EAST AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...PUNCTUATED BY PERIODIC BRIEF WARM UPS. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE FRONT STALLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WE`LL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD SHIELD...BUT EXPECT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. THERE COULD BE A FEW UPSLOPE FLURRIES IN THE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE A DRY DAY ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER IMPULSE RACES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE NEXT IMPULSE APPROACHES THE AREA BY SATURDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. THE NEXT IMPULSE AND COLD FRONT ARRIVE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...VFR THRU MOST OF THE DAY...BUT CONDS FALL TO IFR AROUND SUNSET OR EARLY EVENING IN SNOW...AND WILL STAY THERE THRU TONIGHT...WITH IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR ON WED. LONG TERM... THU AND SAT...SCT MVFR IN MTN SNOW SHOWERS.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...WIND DIMINISHING QUICKLY DURING THE PRE-DAWN...AND WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AS THEY SHIFT SSW AND INCREASE. WILL PROBABLY NEED SCA TONIGHT INTO WED. LONG TERM... THU...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE. SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028. NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001>015. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ NEAR/SHORT...CEMPA LONG...SCHWIBS

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