Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 191346 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 946 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING AND BE FOLLOWED BY A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION MIDWEEK WITH RAIN.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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935 AM...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICKUP BY MIDDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...OTHERWISE SUNSHINE MIXED WITH A FEW CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. HIGHS RANGING FROM 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 60F IN SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE. I MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT SATELLITE TREND AS WELL AS THE 13Z MESONET FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE. PREV DISC... 645 AM...A FEW FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ARE NOW EXITING THE MID-COAST /WHICH DESPITE SOME DECENT RADAR ECHOES ONLY MANAGED TO BRING VIS DOWN TO 6-7SM/. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA OR SHSN IS STARTING TO WORK THROUGH THE ENE ZONES. THESE ARE ASSOCD WITH THE 500MB TROUGH...AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE TN ZONES...WITH SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. THESE SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MIDDAY. ALREADY SEEING M/CLR SKIES IN SRN NH...AND THIS WILL PUSH E THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL SEE SOME SCT STRATOCU CU SPILL BACK IN FROM THE NW NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. PREVIOUSLY...SOME RADAR ECHOES SHOWING UP IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT AND MOVING ACROSS NRN NH ATTM. THE ONLY SIGH OF THIS REACHING THE GROUND WAS A 10SM -SHRA AT KMPV. CANNOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR SPKL...OR EVEN A BIT OF PL...IN THE MTNS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. PROBABLY THE BETTER CHC OF OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALON THE INTL AND UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE MTNS BETWEEN 10-15Z...AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THIS THE THREAT OF ANY PRECIP WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR CLOUDS ELSEWHERE TO CLEAR OUT DURING THE MORNING AS WELL. WILL SEE THE WIND START TO PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE...BUT WILL SURGE EVEN STRONGER DURING THIS AFTERNOON...AS THEN 500MB TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...AND LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. IT WILL BE MORE BREEZY THAN WINDY WITH SUSTAINED NW WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH...AND GUSTS TO 30 OR SO. THIS WILL LKLY LEAD TO METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NH AND SW ME...SEE THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BLO. THE DOWNSLOPE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE 50S ON THE COASTAL...WITH A FEW WARMER SPOTS HITTING 60. IN THE MTNS WILL LKLY SEE TEMPS START TO DROP OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CAA KICKS IN....AND MIDDAY HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID-UPPR 40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNSET...AND BY LATE EVENING THE SHELTERED SPOTS WILL BEGIN TO DECOUPLE....AS SFC HIGH MOVES OVER THE CWA EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES WITH MINS INTHE 20S TO LOW 30S. THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR S ON SUNDAY...AND SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN GENERALLY SUNNY. LOOK FOR SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP...WHICH WILL LIMIT HIGHS ON THE COAST TO UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S...BUT THEY WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S INLAND. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRES SLIDES EWD ON MON...ALLOWING SOME SLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. CLOSED LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS SHOULD PRECLUDE DEEP...MOIST FLOW TO RETURN NWD HOWEVER...ALLOWING MON TO BE A SEASONABLE DAY WITH SOME SUN. DIGGING TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL EVENTUALLY DISLODGE LOW PRES E...AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO SURGE BACK TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. TUE SHOULD STEADILY CLOUD OVER...WITH COOL ONSHORE FLOW. SINCE LAST EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROF...AS OPPOSED TO EARLIER SOLUTIONS OF A COMBINED PINWHEELING GYRE. ATTM IT APPEARS A PERIOD OF RNFL WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED. PWAT VALUES WILL BE SEASONABLY HIGH SO CANNOT RULE OUT EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHRA. UPPER TROF CROSSES THE AREA LATE WED...BRINGING AN END TO PCPN. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL AND WINDY IN ITS WAKE. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM...MANLY VFR THROUGH SUN...COULD SEE A FEW SHRASN BRIEFLY BRING MVFR CONDS TO KHIE THIS MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KT. LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED MON...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUE NIGHT AND WED. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCA FOR HAZ SEAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS SWELL IS JUST STARTING TO SUBSIDE. WINDS SHIFT TO NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...AND COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE TODAY AND THIS EVE. WIND SUBSIDE AND SHIFT TO NE TONIGHT INTO SUN. LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. GUSTY NW FLOW WILL BRING WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY ABOVE SCA CRITERIA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .FIRE WEATHER... BORDERLINE METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON IN SRN NH AND SW ME. BASED ON CONSULTATION WITH ME/NH FOREST OFFICIALSYESTERDAY...FUELS NOT AT CRITICAL LEVELS...BUT WILL BE IN TOUCH WITH THEM FOR ADDL INFO. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
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&& $$ SCHWIBS

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