Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 290734 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 334 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND WILL SET OFF SCATTERED SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO OUR WEST BRINGS A THREAT FOR RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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LARGE RANGE OF TEMPS EARLY THIS AM AS NW FLOW IS KEEPING MANY LOCATIONS ON THE COASTAL PLAIN MIXED EARLY THIS AM WITH READINGS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S...WHILE THE SHELTERED AREAS IN THE MTNS HAVE DECOUPLED AND ARE IN THE 10-15 F RANGE. FOR TODAY...LOOK FOR SFC RIDGE TO BUILD IN WITH LIGHT NW FLOW DIMINISHING THIS MORNING...AND SHIFTING TO SW THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED....WITH SCT CIRRUS OVERHEAD...BUT BLO NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW 30S N...TO UPPER 30S S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
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SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WITH COMPACT 500 MB WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE NRN STREAM. SHOULD SEE SOME MID- UPPR LVL WAA MOVE THRU THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD SET OFF A FEW SHSN IN THE MTNS AND CT VLY TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY...BUT MOST PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING AND CROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL SEE SOME SHSN IN THE MTNS...AND SHSN OR SHRA ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO IN THE MTNS...BUT A COATING AT BEST ELSEWHERE AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND SHOWERS END OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME UPSLOPE SHSN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS THOUGH.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN THRU AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BROAD TROF ACROSS THE E WITH AN ACTIVE NRN STREAM WILL KEEP US YO-YO-ING BETWEEN NEAR NORMAL AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. ONE COLD SHOT ARRIVES MON NIGHT...WITH NWLY CAA AND UPSLOPE SHSN LINGERING INTO TUE. A FOLLOW UP WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL PASS S OF THE AREA TUE...WITH MAINLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS SRN ZONES. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND RETURN FLOW WILL HELP SOME MORE MILD AIR WORK BACK NWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITH PLENTY OF SN LEFT AROUND FORECAST BECOMES MORE LOW CONFIDENCE AFTER THU...AS NWP STRUGGLES TO CONSISTENTLY HANDLE A STRONGER S/WV TROF EJECTING FROM LARGER L/WV TROF DROPPING INTO THE WRN CONUS. IN GENERAL LATE IN THE WEEK LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THRU SRN CANADA. INITIALLY WE CAN EXPECT SOME MILDER AIR AHEAD OF THAT...BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU THE REGION. THE TIMING OF THAT FEATURE IS MORE LOW CONFIDENCE THAN THE EVOLUTION AT THIS TIME. KICKER S/WV TROF DROPPING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRES MAY TRY AND INTERACT WITH LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE EAST COAST. WHETHER RESULTING CYCLOGENESIS CAN TAKE PLACE BEFORE SLIPPING TOO FAR E TO RESULT IN MUCH PCPN REMAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION. GIVEN THE ECMWF SEEMING PENCHANT TO OVERDEVELOP SYSTEMS IN THE LONGER TIME RANGES...I FAVOR THE FLATTER GFS SOLUTION...BUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BE POSSIBLE.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT. SHRA AND SHN COULD BRING CONDS DOWN TO MVFR AT TIMES MON MORNING...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. LONG TERM...UPSLOPE SHSN NEAR KHIE MAY KEEP LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS GOING INTO EARLY TUE BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR. HIGH PRES WILL CONTROL THE AREA THRU MIDWEEK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...SCA SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. SCA WINDS/SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY. LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO TUE BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE WEEK MAY TRY AND BRING WINDS AND SEAS BACK CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-152-154.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...CEMPA SHORT TERM...CEMPA LONG TERM...LEGRO AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO

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