Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 082025 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 425 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WILL SET OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. LESS HUMID HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MOVES IN SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL BEING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... 430PM UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED HOURLY POP TO REFLECT CHANGING IDEAS ABOUT CONVECTION THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY CONVECTION IS VERY ISOLATED AND NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF GROWING IN STRENGTH OR COVERAGE. EXPECT NOT TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS... BUT SHOULD SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS BETWEEN 8PM AND MIDNIGHT AS STORMS FROM THE WEST MOVE INTO THE REGION. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THE WARM UNSTABLE AIR. ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL SEE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT AS INDICATED BY THE HRRR. HOWEVER THIS LINE WEAKENS QUICKLY AS IT MOVES EAST AND WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT TOO FAR EAST. THE COLD FRONT SLOWS TO A CRAWL BY 12Z. ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT IN STORE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST AND EXPECT THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SWEEP THE HUMIDITY OFF SHORE. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WEAKLY AMPLIFIED FLOW AT 500 MB... WITH JET OVER FORECAST AREA WILL PERSISTS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY... WITH SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A FAIR... DRY AND COMFORTABLE PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES /HIGHS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND MINS IN THE 50S/ AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. 500MB TROUGH STARTS TO DIG TO OUR WEST BY SUNDAY... AND WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON WARM ADVECTION... LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST. MODELS DIFFER ON DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND TIMING...BUT SHOULD SEE A COLD FRONT CLEAR THE AREA BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...EXPECT SOME IFR IN THUNDER/SHOWERS AND FOG THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VFR WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE MVFR/IFR IN ANY SHOWER/THUNDER. VFR EXPECT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... OTHER THAN SOME NIGHTTIME VALLEY FOG...THE BEST CHANCE IS SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...ISSUED SCA FOR SEAS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK QUIET ON THE WATERS WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE

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