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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 220243
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1043 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses tonight with little precipitation followed
by a dry and blustery day Monday. High pressure slides south of
the area Tuesday for warmer and dry conditions. Low pressure
approaches the region Wednesday bringing the next chance for
rain. High pressure then builds in towards the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1040 PM...Forecast in good shape. Second round of -SHSN
/mainly/ moves into the N zones briefly for a few hours after
midnight, but as the forcing shifts back NE these will die
quickly. Otherwise, a few of the more sheltered areas have
decoupled and temps have fallen a little more quickly than some
other spots, although The increased flow behind the front in the
pre dawn should slow this cooling. Thus mins end up a degree or
two colder than in the previous update in a few spots.

735 PM...Just a few tweaks to the forecast based on current
conds, but overall overnight forecast in good shape. Some very
weak WAA, possibly aided by the onshore of the sea breeze that
set off a few showers in the mtns is fading, but the cold front
that`s working in won`t make it until after midnight, so a few
flurries and sprinkles still possible in the mtns to the intl
border this evening, with a slight increase in showers as the
cold front moves through the N zones midnight to 4 AM, but still
pretty light stuff. Ahead of the front winds are diminishing
with nightfall, but winds should pick up a bit in the pre-dawn
hours behind the front, but won`t get gusty until after
sunrise.

Previously...A weak cold front crosses through northern New
England tonight. Clouds increase with this passing front, and
some scattered showers are likely near the Canadian border and
across the higher terrain. Otherwise, the passage of the front
will mainly only be marked by a wind shift to west-northwesterly
flow, and cooler and dry air making a return.

Overnight, temperatures cool into the 20s and 30s as a dry
Canadian airmass moves in. The coolest readings will mostly be
found through the northern valleys where temps drop into the mid
20s, but there are also likely to be some lows in the 20s south
of the mountains in more sheltered radiational cooling
locations. Skies also clear through the overnight, adding to the
radiational cooling effect.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry and breezy conditions are expected tomorrow as downslope
winds mix down dry air. RH values dip into the teens and 20s
tomorrow, with wind gusts of around 20 to 25 mph. These lead to
heightened fire weather concerns for tomorrow, with cooler temps
in the 40s and 50s being the only factor restraining greater
concerns. Otherwise, a beautiful, dry, and sunny day is
expected with a steady breeze.

Temperatures cool much more tomorrow night, with lows dropping
into the 20s in most locations. Lows near freezing are likely
along the coast, and into southern New Hampshire, while a few
teens are possible across the northern valleys. Clear and dry
conditions persist overnight tomorrow night as high pressure
steadily builds into New England.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Quiet weather is expected Tuesday, with gusty southwesterly
return flow.

A good portion of the deterministic and ensemble suite continues
to our best chance of measurable rain during the week, centered
around Wednesday. At this time it looks as through the rain
event will be relatively light, with most locations receiving
less than a half inch. Windy conditions then ensue Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday with gusts at or above 30 MPH.

Thereafter, fair but cool weather returns late week. The next
chance of rainfall appears to be Sunday.

Highs during the period look to be around or slightly below
normal. 70 degree temperatures are not foreseen for quite awhile
given the upper air setup over the northeast and Maritime
Canada. It`s probably be the late 1st week or 2nd week in May
before that happens at the earliest.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions prevail through tomorrow night as
dry air moves into New England. West-northwesterly winds gusts
to around 20kts during the daytime tomorrow.

Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions are expected at most
terminals Tuesday. Restrictions are likely on Wednesday as
showers and lower ceilings return, with MVFR to IFR conditions
likely. Improvement to VFR is likely Wed night through Fri.
Gusty SFC winds likely Tue and again Thurs.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...A weak cold front crosses the waters tonight, with
a period of marginal SCA conditions expected with westerly wind
gusts around 25kts. Winds ease tomorrow as high pressure builds
across the waters.

Long Term...High pressure moves east of the waters by Tuesday
as a cold front approaches from the west. Some borderline SCA
conditions possible Tue and Wed but then likely by Wed night and
Thurs.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 2 PM EDT Monday for ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Cempa/Clair
SHORT TERM...Clair
LONG TERM...Ekster
AVIATION...
MARINE...