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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 271627
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1227 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move well offshore this afternoon taking any
lingering showers with it. Conditions should dry out behind the
front with temperatures a few degrees warmer than Monday. Low
pressure developing along the offshore front will create a
northeasterly wind over Maine and New Hampshire Tuesday night,
bringing clouds back into the area. Several waves of low pressure
will track northeast along the front through the western Atlantic,
with an occasional chance of showers especially near the coast
throughout the week. The best chance of rain will be this weekend
when the large upper level low pressure system over the Great
Lakes lifts to the north, spreading rain into New England.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --
1225 PM...minor ESTF update to reflect current clearing trend and
to ingest the 16z mesonet into near term grids.

Prev Disc...
1022 AM...for this ESTF update I slowed the clearing
and made adjustments to near term grids to reflect satellite
trends as well as the 14z mesonet.

Prev Disc...
615 AM Update...Rain shield is moving through the area quickly and
should be offshore by 9 am if not sooner. Some models including
the HRRR have been too slow with this system. Have adjusted PoPs
as well as temperatures and dew points. So far, storm total
precipitation where it has rained has ranged from one tenth of an
inch to around a half inch in very localized spots.

Previous discussion...
Variable cloudiness across the region with warm overnight
temperatures in the 50s areawide and even 60 degrees this hour in
Nashua. Rain showers are just moving into NH and will eventually
reach Maine in the next 2-3 hours before exiting the coast by mid
morning. Most areas will see less than two-tenths of an inch out
of this particular system. Temperatures will rebound into the 60s
and 70s as skies clear from west to east.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds in quickly behind the front bringing cooler
and drier air into northern New England. Wednesday`s highs will be
cooler as a result around the upper 50s to the mid 60s. We will
still have a fair amount of cloud cover with the upper low
remaining nearby. Even as high pressure wedges against the higher
terrain, showers will continue to be possible along the coast with
a mid Atlantic low moving northeast along the coast. Will likely
see drizzle as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A very large upper low that will be centered over the Ohio valley
throughout the latter part of the week will drift slowly
northeast over the weekend. This will produce a moist unstable air
mass well to its east. Unsettled weather with several periods of
rain or showers can be expected late in the week and into the
weekend. This will be accompanied by a damp onshore flow as a
broad persistent northeast maritime flow develops. With this
northeast flow cool temperatures are expected and not much of a
variation in diurnal temps expected. Models differ some on
features and timing of some of the periods of precipitation so
staying with a blend of models appeared best. Although a prolonged
period of unsettled weather is expected, qpf amounts from the slow
moving system will likely remain light overall as most models
generally keep the heavier areas of rainfall south and east of
the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...Conditions have deteriorated this morning in showers
which will end by mid morning. We will see MVFR conditions with
IFR possible in heavy rain showers. Lower ceilings are more likely
along the coast. Tonight into Wednesday morning drizzle and
stratus will be possible. This could bring IFR conditions after
00Z Wednesday, with the western New Hampshire terminals HIE and
LEB least likely to be impacted.

Long Term...MVFR conditions move in Wednesday night through the
remainder of the period with some IFR conditions likely in any
fog/stratus that settles over the region at times due to the
persistent onshore maritime flow.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...A front crosses the region this morning. Winds will
be variable before becoming easterly tonight. Winds and seas will
flirt with SCA criteria beginning late tonight. Will let the day
shift take a look at the possibility of issuing a SCA.

Long Term...Winds and seas will remain at SCA levels through the
outlook period over the outer waters and possibly in the bays due
to a persistent northeast flow.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
ES