Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 130736 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 336 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE REGION EARLY TODAY ALLOWING FOR VERY WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR TO INVADE THE REGION TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE COAST TUESDAY AND STALL RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN THURSDAY AND PUSHES THE FRONT TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE WARM FNT PUSHES TO THE NE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY TOADY. THIS BRINGS IN VERY WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR FOR TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SHRA/TSTMS TO DEVELOP...FIRST OVER THE N/MT/FAR WRN ZONES WHERE INSTABILITY INCREASES FIRST AS INDICATED BY CAPE...LI AND 850 MB THETA-E VALUES...THEN SPREADING TO THE E AND SE LATER TODAY. SOME TSTMS COULD HAVE GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AS INDICATED BY INCREASING AND VEERING WINDS FROM SFC TO 700 MB. WINDS PICK UP TODAY FROM THE S SW WHICH BRINGS IN COOLER AIR OFF THE OCEAN FOR COASTAL ZONES...THEN SPREADS FURTHER INLAND OVER SRN AND CENTRAL MAINE. THIS WILL HOLD BACK TEMPS TODAY. ALSO...THE INCREASING CLOUDS THEN DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL HOLD BACK TEMPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S N/MT AND COASTAL ZONES AND MAINLY 80 TO 85 ELSEWHERE. IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF LONGER ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE THEN INLAND TEMPS COULD RISE A BIT HIGHER. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... SHRA/TSTMS CONT AT LEAST INTO THIS EVE THEN LET UP OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF F LIKELY TO FORM IN THE WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAD RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S. THE VERY WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THRU. THE INSTABILITY COVERS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE FCST AREA AS INDICATED BY FCST CAPE...LI AND 850 MB THETA-E VALUES. THUS EXPECT SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE FCST AREA...AGAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY TSTMS WITH FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AS INDICATED BY FAIRLY STRONG AND VEERING WINDS FROM SFC TO 700 MB. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A BIT UNSETTLED IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. MODELS INDICATING THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT KEEPING THE REGION IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FROM WEDNESDAY AND MOVES NORTHEAST SCRAPING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR BUT THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE SFC LOW. AT ANY RATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WHILE MORE INTERIOR LOCATIONS SEE SOME CLEARING WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...VFR LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING SCT TO MAYBE OCCASIONAL SHRA/TSTMS LATER TODAY AND TNGT AND CONTINUING ON MONDAY. SOME H/F THAT COULD LOWER VSBY AND PERHAPS CIG EARLY THIS MORNING THEN AGAIN LATER TNGT INTO MONDAY. LONG TERM...EXPECT MVFR/IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL BECOME VFR WEDNESDAY WHILE COASTAL LOCATION REMAIN MVFR/IFR. VFR RETURNING THURSDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...WILL CONT THE SCA FOR THIS AFTERNOON THRU TNGT AS S SW WINDS SHOULD INCREASE ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS...FIRST OVER THE OPEN WATERS THEN EXTENDING EVEN INTO THE BAYS. WINDS LET UP FOR MONDAY...WITH SEAS A LITTLE SLOWER TO RESPOND. LONG TERM...SCA MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MEZ023>028. NH...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NHZ014. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$

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