Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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579 FXUS61 KGYX 270236 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 936 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will pass north of the region late tonight and tomorrow. This will allow somewhat warmer temperatures to stream in from the south and west tomorrow before a trailing cold front moves through tomorrow night. High pressure builds over the region for Tuesday before a fast moving system approaches from the west late in the day Tuesday and Tuesday night, bringing a chance for precipitation. An unsettled pattern then sets up for Wednesday and Thursday, with additional chances for precipitation. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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935 PM Update...Clear skies and diminishing winds continue. No changes to the forecast. Continuing to watch for ice jam flooding however. 620 PM Update...Little change to the going forecast. Mostly clear skies and diminishing winds will continue to be the rule this evening. Previously... A weak trough moving through the region that has been generating snow showers over the mountains will move off to the north and east tonight. This should bring an end to any snow shower activity and allow for clearing over the mountains. Cold air advection hasn`t quite bottomed out yet though. Radiational cooling should allow the winds over the land to decouple around sunset, or even slightly before. After that it should be a fairly quiet night.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... With surface high pressure sitting just off the mid Atlantic coast and low pressure passing to the north of Maine tomorrow, we should see warm return flow set up in the lower levels. This will allow surface temperatures to warm into the 40s across most of the region, with some 50s possible over extreme southern portions of New Hampshire and Maine. High pressure then dominates the weather through Monday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Warm front will approach the area from the southwest on Tuesday bringing increasing clouds in the morning and a variety of precipitation for the afternoon. Boundary layer will warm enough in coastal and southern interior sections by the time precipitation arrives to fall as rain. With high pressure offshore well southeast of New England expect little in the way of cold air damming...but will likely see a period of mixed sleet...snow and rain in the foothills and southern mountains and snow in th far north. By days end only looking for light amounts of QPF...generally a tenth of an inch or less. Highs on Tuesday will top out in the lower to mid 40s north and in the upper 40s to mid 50s south. Light over-running precip will continue Tuesday evening before tapering off after midnight. Rain will taper off in southern zones before midnight and mixed precip in the north will gradually change to rain before ending. Lows will range from the lower to mid 30s north and mid to upper 30s south. Low pressure moving northeast through southern Quebec on Wednesday will bring another shot of over-running to the region. Looking for occasional periods of rain through the day but once again QPF will be on the light side with models showing a quarter inch or less. High temperatures will top out well above normal with mid 40s to lower 50s north and mid to upper 50s south. A trailing cold front will push in from the west Wednesday evening bringing another round of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms in southern New Hampshire. Expect the front to quickly move through during the evening with associated shower activity exiting the region before midnight. Brisk northwest flow behind the front will clear skies downwind of the mountains. Lingering low level moisture and good upslope flow will produce occasional snow showers after midnight with some light accumulations possible. Lows by Thursday morning will be in the lower to mid 30s north and upper 30s to mid 40s south. Thursday will be blustery and turning colder as strong northwest winds usher in a fresh batch of arctic air. Looking for a mix of sun and clouds with any lingering flurries in the mountains coming to an end Thursday morning. High temps will likely be reached in the morning with steady or slowly falling readings in the afternoon. High pressure will gradually build in from the west Thursday night and Friday. Winds will diminish through the period as low pressure continues to move away to the northeast. Lows Thursday night will range from 5 to 15 north and 15 to 25 south. Models diverging somewhat on Friday as GFS showing a weak clipper system passing by to the south which could possibly result in a little light snow across southern New Hampshire. ECMWF not depicting anything at this point so will likely lean heavily on SB pops for late in the week. Weekend looking quiet at this point as high pressure shifts in from the west. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term...Expect VFR conditions throughout the period. Gusty northwest winds today should decouple and diminish toward sunset. Westerly flow tomorrow will allow winds to gust to around 20kts at most locations. Long Term... ifr/lifr ceilings/vsby developing Tuesday and persisting through Wednesday. Becoming VFR Wednesday night with areas of MVFR ceilings/vsby in mountains snow showers. VFR Thursday and Friday. && .MARINE... Short Term...Winds have not been quite as strong as originally expected over the outer waters. Will drop the Gale Warning to a Small Craft Advisory. Winds and seas are expected to remain at SCA criteria through tomorrow afternoon. Long Term...SCA`s likely on Wednesday with gales likely Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... A flood watch remains posted for interior portions of Maine where rivers have not crested. In New Hampshire, almost all of the rivers have crested and the flooding potential has diminished. Warmer temperatures arrive again tomorrow, although not as warm as the previous three days. Still, temperatures in the 40s and lower 50s may start ice moving again so we will continue to monitor it closely. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Flood Watch until 7 AM EST Monday for MEZ007>009-012>014-020- 021. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ151- 153. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ150-152-154.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE...Ekster

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