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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 152323
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
723 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOWS PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NE TONIGHT KEEPING GUSTY NW FLOW
OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
730PM UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW IN THAT AREA. STILL EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING.

530PM UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED POP VALUES ACROSS THE AREA AS SHOWERS HAVE BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. EXPECT MUCH OF
THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SUN GOES
DOWN AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCING MUCH OF THE BROADER SCALE
ASCENT MOVES EAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED WELL INTO DOWNEAST MAINE AND OFFSHORE
FOR POINTS SOUTH. OVER NH AND WESTERN MAINE UPSLOPE SHOWERS AND
REMNANT MOISTURE/LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS FROM NY STATE ARE STILL
MOVING THROUGH. MOST OF THESE ARE LIQUID EXCEPT AND HAVE BEEN MOST
OF THE DAY...SQUEEZING OUT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF.

TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO REACH THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO EVEN
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST WITH THE HELP OF WESTERLY WINDS AND
SOME CLEARING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE. WINDS WILL BECOME WNW AS ANOTHER
BOUNDARY...THE TRUE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE NEXT 3-5
HOURS USHERING IN A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS. THIS WILL HELP
DOWNSLOPE PROCESSES AND CLEAR OUT SKIES OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN...HELPING TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT
WITH SINGLE DIGITS NORTH. THE SAVING GRACE WITH BE GUSTY 5-15 MPH
WINDS WHICH WILL BE MIXED DOWN...KEEPING TEMPERATURES HIGHER THAN
THEY WOULD BE OTHERWISE. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH EVERYWHERE BUT
THE HIGHEST PEAKS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND EVEN THERE BY
DAYBREAK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERN TOMORROW WILL BE GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL MAKE IT
SEEM MUCH COLDER THAN IT IS. EXPECT SUSTAINED 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 20-30 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO
LOWER 20S SOUTH...OBVIOUSLY WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID MARCH AND
QUITE A CHANGE FROM TODAY. THIS RESULTS IN NEGATIVE SINGLE WIND
CHILLS DURING THE DAY IN THE MOUNTAINS. EVENING BRINGS NEAR CALM
WINDS BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. THANKFULLY THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS BUT CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LATE WEDNESDAY
A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL TREK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND TO
ITS EAST WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT THAT WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. BY LATE THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.

GENERALLY STAYED VERY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ONLY CONCERN IS GUSTY WEST WINDS WHICH WILL COMMENCE
AROUND 16/12Z AT 12G20KT AND INCREASE TO 16G26KT BY 15Z. THESE
WINDS WILL DECREASE BY 17/00Z.

LONG TERM...
MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA AND ISSUED A GALE WARNING IN
ITS PLACE AS WE WILL REACH GALE CRITERIA BY LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE OVER THE WATERS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
SHORT TERM... HANES
LONG TERM... MARINE.