Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 240214 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 914 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak upper level trough of low pressure will move across the region tonight bringing some clouds and maybe a few flurries in the mountains. High pressure moves off to the east Friday allowing a warmer southwest flow to develop that will continue into Saturday. Another weak cold front crosses the region late Saturday bringing widely scattered showers. A cold upper trof settles over the region Sunday with possibly some scattered rain or snow showers and colder temperatures. More high pressure builds in for the start of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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915 PM Update...Have updated the forecast...mainly for sky cover based on latest satellite trends. Mid deck has made it to the ME coast and should persist until short wave passage just after midnight. Thereafter, locations downwind from the mountains should clear out. Otherwise, have adjusted temperatures a little bit but forecast remains largely on track. 530 PM Update...Have updated the forecast this evening mainly for cloud cover. An approaching short wave trough has spread an expansive deck of mid and high clouds over much of the CWA this evening. This will make it mostly cloudy for several hours, but a clearing trend is foreseen later on. Otherwise, no significant changes. Previously... Weak 500 mb trough will graze the nrn CWA tonight, and spread some clouds across the entire area through this evening, and perhaps produce some snow showers or flurries in the mountains. Actual best chc of snow in the north will come in the surge of westerly flow behind the trough after midnight, air little dynamic forcing ahead of it. Mins are a bit of challenge, as clouds start the evening, with clearing late. However along with the clearing comes increasing W flow on the boundary lyr, and this may limit rad cooling in all but the most sheltered areas. In the N, clouds will be lingering all night, so limited cooling there. This should bring us lows in the in the 20s, coolest N, and warmest S, although temps may dip this evening and hold steady thru the rest of the night.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Sfc ridge passes to our south, and the west flow gradually shifts to SW during the day, with warner air starting to move in. Some lingering clouds in the mountains should begin to clear briefly in the afternoon, but otherwise mostly sunny with highs ranging from 35-40 in the mountains, to the mid-upper 40s along the cost and in srn NH. Another round of clouds begin to move in Friday night, as WAA starts up again ahead of sfc low which tracks well to our north across Quebec. SW flow increases and with clouds rolling in lows once again should be early in the night, with temps steadying or rising after midnight. those lows will be mild for late November, generally ranging from the mid 20s to mid 30s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The deterministic models are in decent agreement on the long wave pattern through early next week. We begin the period with digging shortwave energy approaching from the Great Lakes. In response...the approaching upper trough eventually goes negative tilt by Sunday. At the surface...low pressure over northern Quebec will drag a trailing cold front accompanied by showers across the area late Saturday preceded by a warm southerly flow. The front will drift only slowly offshore Saturday night and Sunday as it becomes nearly parallel to the upper flow. Low pressure will develop along this boundary on Sunday and rapidly intensify as the upper trough goes negative tilt...but too far offshore for any meaningful impacts to our sensible weather. The upper trough will lift out during Monday with rising heights and resultant ridging downstream of an upper trough over the western CONUS providing the forecast area with several days of mild weather to begin the new work week. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term...VFR and light winds through Friday night. Long Term... Sat PM - Sun AM...Areas of MVFR in -shra and MTN -shra/-shsn. && .MARINE... Short Term...SCA for seas will hold through the night, as 5-6 ft seas should persists until after midnight, especially away from the immediate coast. There should be a short-lived break from SCA on Friday, but increasing SW flow will likely lead to SCA by Friday night. Long Term... Sat...Small craft conditions are likely. Sun - Tue...Small craft conditions are possible outside the bays. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 9 AM EST Friday for ANZ150-152. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE

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