Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 261511 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1111 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND BRINGS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY OR TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AGAIN FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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11AM UPDATE... MADE ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS. SKY AND POP FORECAST STILL ON TRACK WITH CUMULUS BUILDING IN THE MOUNTAINS LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. 630AM UPDATE... MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE...LARGE AREA OF DENSE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE AS SW FLOW TAKES OVER ALOFT. HAZE FORECAST IN THE GRIDS LOOKS ON TRACK FOR WHEN IMPROVING VISIBILITY CAN BE EXPECTED. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES 2500 MILES AWAY CONTINUES TO LEAVE MUCH OF THE AREA IN A HAZE THIS MORNING. IN FACT IF YOU GET OUTSIDE BEFORE SUNRISE BEGINS TO MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER...YOU MAY BE ABLE TO SMELL THE SMOKE IN THE AIR. UNTIL THAT TIME WILL KEEP HAZE IN THE GRIDS. AT THE MOMENT PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS ALSO DEVELOPING. THESE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THRU ABOUT 12Z. INCREASING SW FLOW TODAY WILL AID IN CLEARING OUT THE SMOKE...AS WELL AS BUMPING TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES FROM FRIDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT...AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY POOR...SO HAVE NOT ADDED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
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AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THAT AND CONTINUED SW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF OVERNIGHTS. BY SUNDAY FRONT WILL TRY AND CROSS THE AREA. AS IT DOES SO EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. LAPSE RATES DO IMPROVE FOR THE AFTERNOON...SO THUNDER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL BE MUCH FARTHER SW...ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN ZONES AS SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A LONGWAVE TROUGH PRODUCING A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW GETS CARVED OUT AND SHARPENS TO OUR WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND THRU NEXT WEEK. AN INITIAL STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATES THRU THIS TROUGH INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST...THUS NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THAT TIME FRAME. BY MIDWEEK SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE BUT SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW DIURNAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS THE THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST. USED A BLEND OF MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF...FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES IN CANADA CONTINUES TO LEAVE THE AREA IN A HAZE. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISPERSE TODAY...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SW. UNTIL THEN HAZE AND PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE DAY SATURDAY. TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. LONG TERM...UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THRU TUESDAY WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND VFR CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE WATERS AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CURRENTLY EXPECT WINDS TO STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST 5 TO 6 FT SEAS BY SUNDAY...HOWEVER THIS IS TYPICALLY AN OVERESTIMATE IN SW FLOW. A MARGINAL SCA MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY REGARDLESS. LONG TERM...S FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY WARRANT A SCA OVER THE OUTER WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY DUE TO BUILDING SEAS BUT POSSIBLY FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AS WELL. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE WATERS TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE

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