Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 031826 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 226 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AN EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE AREA. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD DOWN THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW THAT DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THIS WILL ENSURE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE MASS BORDER THIS EVENING. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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COOL AND CLOUDY EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. A MAINLY DRY MORNING IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS OR A CHILLY LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A RAINY EVENING IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST MAXIMIZES. THE STEADIER/HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR AROUND DAWN THURSDAY. HOWEVER...DRIZZLE WILL PROBABLY REPLACE THE LARGER RAINDROPS AS THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY INTENSIFIES...PASSING EAST OF NANTUCKET ISLAND ON THURSDAY. CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE UNSETTLED FRIDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THIS WEEKEND...PRODUCING COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONDITIONS. CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO ENTER THE REGION ON INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS. THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE LOCATION OF THIS INTENSIFICATION. THE EURO AND GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE GGEM STRENGTHENS THE SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE. A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER...HOWEVER A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...MVFR TO LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEFORE GOING BACK DOWN TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT. A FEW AREAS OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLY ESPECIALLY ON THE COAST. IMPROVEMENT TO HIGH-END MVFR OR LOW-END VFR IS EXPECTED AGAIN BY LATE WED MORNING BUT WILL TREND DOWN ONCE AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AS RAIN DEVELOPS. IFR OR LOWER IN RAIN WED EVENING AND NIGHT. LONG TERM...AREAS OF LIFR CONDITIONS WITH A RAW NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...DRIER WESTERLY WINDS WILL ENTER THE REGION.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SCA WINDS/SEAS TO BUILD LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE AND A GUSTY NORTHEAST GRADIENT DEVELOPS. EXPECT WAVES IN THE 4-6 FOOT RANGE TO CONTINUE...ABOVE SCA CRITERIA INTO THIS WEEKEND. WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOIST ONSHORE FLOW HELPING TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HIGH AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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BEGINNING THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE ARE SET FOR A PERIOD OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THE HIGHEST TIDES WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WHEN PORTLAND IS FORECAST TO REACH 11.9 FEET AT 1135 PM AND 1226 AM RESPECTIVELY. COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY. IF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS A LITTLE SOONER OR STRONGER...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS THE THURSDAY EVENING TIDE. ANY FLOODING WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF PORTLAND.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...EKSTER SHORT TERM...EKSTER LONG TERM...CANNON

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