Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 291547 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1147 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary was stalled from central New England through the Gulf of Maine. This front will slowly slip further offshore today as low pressure tracks east along it. A secondary cold front extended from northern Maine through the Saint Lawrence valley. These boundaries will produce a few showers and isolated thunderstorms across the area today. The best chance for a steadier and heavier rain will be across far southern New Hampshire and southwest coastal Maine. Cooler, more seasonable temperatures return for the weekend with dry conditions Saturday and another chance for showers on Sunday into Monday. Mainly dry weather with a gradual warming trend is expected for Tuesday through much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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1140 am update: Main northern edge of precipitation shield now moving offshore with only a few light showers remaining over southern areas as the system to the south continues to move east. Lowered pops over all areas for this afternoon based on these trends. 1005 am update: Northern edge of rain extends into southeast NH at this time with some other localized light showers over south central area. Previous pop forecast looks good but made some minor adjustments lower over northern sections. Also, minor adjustments to some temps based on latest mesonet data. 605 AM...Minor ESTF update to reflect current radar trends and the 10z mesonet in near term grids. Prev Disc... At 06z...a stalled frontal boundary extended from central New England through the Gulf of Maine. A secondary cold front extended from the rooftop of Maine through the Saint Lawrence valley. GOES water vapor imagery showed a shortwave impulse racing east-northeast across the mid atlantic states. For today...a weak wave will ride northeast along the stalled boundary to our south and east. The steadiest showers and embedded thunder with this impulse will brush southern New Hampshire into adjacent southwest Maine this morning. Otherwise...the secondary cold front just north of the International border will gradually drop southeast and provide a focus for scattered convection across the remainder of the area today. Clouds and convection today should limit high temperatures to a few degrees either side of 80F.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... High pressure and drier air will build into the area from the north tonight. The clear skies and light winds should allow areas of stratus and fog to form overnight mainly across the interior valleys. Lows tonight will range from the 50s across the mountains to the lower and mid 60s across southern New Hampshire and the Maine coastal plain. A mostly sunny Saturday as the surface high center builds by to our north. Highs will be mainly in the lower and mid 80s...with a few upper 70s across the mountains. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... An broad-scale upper level trough will gradually move east Sunday through Tuesday. Models differ on the progression of this trough and the associated precipitation with the ECMWF faster than the GFS. As a consequence, Sunday`s forecast is still a bit uncertain with the ECMWF indicating a rainy day and the GFS holding the rain off until Sunday night and Monday. the current forecast is a compromise between these two solutions with precip reaching southwestern areas in the afternoon...then spreading northeastward. High temps Sunday and Monday should be in the 70s...but Sundays temps will depend on amount of sun before any showers reach the area. After the trough shifts east of region late Monday or Tuesday, gradual ridging aloft will provide mainly dry weather across the region with a warming trend through much of next week. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term /through Saturday/...vfr with areas of mvfr in shra/tsra through 23z. Aft 23z...vfr with lcl ifr dvlpg in valley stratus and fog. Aft 12z Sat...vfr throughout. Long Term...MVFR conditions will spread from southwest to northeast Sunday afternoon and Sunday night in clouds and showers and continue during the day Monday. Conditions will improve Tuesday with mainly VFR conditions Tuesday through Friday, except for early morning valley fog. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Saturday/...Conditions to remain below SCA thresholds through the period. Long Term...Winds and seas expected to be below sca criteria. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Marine Short Term...Marine is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.