Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KGYX 050725 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE VALLEY FOG WILL LIFT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE SUNRISE...LEAVING US WITH MORE SUN THAN NOT TODAY. A WEAK TROF WILL SWING THRU EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY BRUSHING NRN AND ERN ZONES. THE POCKET OF COLDER TEMPS THAT COMES WITH IT ALOFT WILL HELP INCREASE CLOUD COVER WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ACROSS INTERIOR WRN ME...EXPECT THAT EVENTUALLY THIS RESULTS IN ISOLD TO SCATTERED TSTMS. IT APPEARS THOUGH ENOUGH ICE WILL EXIST IN THE CLOUDS THAT STRAIGHT THUNDER MENTION SEEMED APPROPRIATE FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. FLOW IS FAIRLY WEAK...SO SHEAR IS RATHER MODEST AS WELL. DO NOT FORESEE MUCH ORGANIZATION TO THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THOUGH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BRING ABOUT SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW FROM ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP. CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ALSO SHOW A FAIRLY SMALL WINDOW FOR TSTMS...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON INITIATION AND CLEARING THE COAST BEFORE EVENING.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DOMINATED BY RIDGING ALOFT. DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK UP IN RETURNING FLOW SHOULD KEEP THINGS MILDER THAN TONIGHT. WITH RIDGE AXIS ALIGNED SURFACE AND ALOFT MON...WEAK FLOW WILL PREVAIL. THIS SHOULD BE IDEAL FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND DICTATE AFTERNOON TEMPS FOR THOSE AREAS. INLAND IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY WARM DAY...WITH H8 TEMPS CLIMBING TO NEAR 15C. MIXING THAT DOWN...WHICH LOOKS ACHIEVABLE...YIELDS MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE FAVORED WARM SPOTS OF SRN NH INTO THE SFM AREA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THROUGH LATE IN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY BECOMES DIFFICULT AFTER DAY FIVE IN THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE THAT QUICKLY EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPSTREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE COAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MODELS DIFFER ON EXACTLY HOW FAST AND FAR THE FRONT SINKS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY BEFORE STALLING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD IN ON THURSDAY THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION SHOULD ARRIVE IN TIME FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM...PATCHY IFR OR LOWER VSBYS IN VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNRISE. CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE DAY. ISOLD TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS FOR AUG AND RKD AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MON. LONG TERM... TUE PM - THU AM...SCT MVFR IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. A BRISK SW WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY MAY HELP INCREASE SEAS TO 3 OR 4 FT NEAR MATINICUS THIS AFTERNOON. LONG TERM... TUE - WED...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...LEGRO SHORT TERM...LEGRO LONG TERM...SCHWIBS AVIATION...LEGRO/SCHWIBS MARINE...LEGRO/SCHWIBS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.