Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 150039 AAB AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 839 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front crosses the region tonight allowing a warmer and more moist southwest flow to develop over the area. Low pressure will track east through southern Canada on Sunday and drive a trailing cold front through the region Sunday night. Canadian high pressure with cooler and dry weather follows for Monday into Tuesday. A large ridge of high pressure builds across the eastern U.S. allowing a warm dry southwest flow to return for the last half of the week and quite possibly into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Update...Will be monitoring fog trends over the next couple of hours...as hi-res guidance suggests about 03z for the earliest development. Based on latest satellite and model forecasts...I expect fog to form in a convergent band just inland form the coast and expand from there. Models are not too bullish on widespread dense fog yet...so no plans to issue an advisory at this time. The lowest visibility does look like it should focus N of PWM...with SW flow in the boundary layer. Previous discussion...An area of high pres off the coast will allow a southerly flow to develop tonight allowing areas of low clouds to develop...especially along the coast where some fog is also expected later tonight. Over northern and central areas a chance of light showers are possible along the remnants of the weak boundary that turns into a warm front that lifts north. Overnight low temps will be mild with lows in the 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Sunday - A rather strong low level southwest flow will develop as a strong mid level jet moves across the area ahead of the approaching trof and associated cold front from the Great Lakes. The morning low clouds and fog should get mixed out and then burn off so some sun expected by afternoon over most southern areas, along the mid coast area the low clouds may prevail through most of the day. The strong waa pattern will advect h85 temps reaching +15 to +17C, so temps reaching well into the 70s and even lower 80s possible. The only cooler areas that will remain in the 60s will in the midcoast area. During the evening convection will move from west to east across the region along and ahead of the approaching cold front. The front will move rapidly through the area after midnight and be off the coast by early morning with clearing and cooler conditions in its wake. Winds will shift to the west after midnight bringing cooler temps that will reach the mountains and foothills by morning. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A rather fast flow across the northern tier of the country will result in rather fast and weak weather systems moving mainly north of the region. The net result will be abnormally dry weather for the next 7 days along with above normal temperatures on average - to perhaps well above normal temperatures at times. The long term period will start off cooler Monday and Tuesday as cool Canadian high pressure settles in. Other than some upslope rain and snow showers in the higher terrain of the Whites and western ME mountains, it will remain dry. There could be a good amount of strato-cu around on Monday in the breezy northwest flow regime, but it should clear out Monday night into Tuesday. Monday night could see many areas reach the freezing mark if if winds go calm for several hours. A gradual warm-up starts Wednesday and looks to last through Friday if not longer along with mainly dry weather. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term...VFR conditions will deteriorate to MVFR-IFR stratus moving in late this evening and lingering into Sunday morning. Should see improvement to VFR by early Sunday afternoon, although will see SW winds increase with some gusts to 20-25 kt possible. Late Sun afternoon and Sun night MVFR conditions expected in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along and ahead of the passage of the cold front. Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions are expected Monday through Thursday. There could be some MVFR in stratocu on Monday for a time, especially in the mountains. There may also be some valley fog both Monday and Tuesday nights - mainly in the interior. && .MARINE... Short Term...Winds and seas remain below SCA levels into Sunday morning. SCAs have been issued for Sunday afternoon and Sunday night as the southwest flow increases ahead of the cold front, as well as building seas. Early Monday the SCAs will continue due to the gusty west flow behind the frontal passage. Long Term...SCA in effect into Monday morning as gusty westerly winds continue. The SCA may need to be extended through Monday afternoon for the outer waters depending on how slow the winds and seas subside. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 11 AM EDT Monday for ANZ150>154. && $$ NEAR TERM...Legro

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