Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 260730 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 330 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WARM FRONT EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THRU. SFC FRONT AT 07Z LOOKS LIKE ITS RUNS NW-SE FROM KHIE-KPSM AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NEWD THIS MORNING. FAIRLY ST6ABLE WITH LITTLE FORCING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...AND ANY SHRA SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE N AND E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA 09-12Z....FROM SW- NE. TDS ALREADY RISING S OF THE WARM FRONT AND THEY WILL CREEP UP INTO THE LOW 60S TODAY IN SOME AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT BREEZY SW WINDS COULD KEEP THEM A LITTLE LOWER TODAY IN THE DOWNSLOPE. ENOUGH FLOW TO PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING...SO COASTAL AREAS FROM CASCO BAY S WILL WARM INTO HE 80S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MID COAST THE COOLEST...GENERALLY STUCK IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. AFTER A CLOUDY START SHOULD SEE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
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IN GENERAL TONIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY...AS FAR AS RAIN GOES...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS WANT TO POPS A FEW SHRA OVER THE TERRAIN OF NH OVERNIGHT. GIVEN SOME INSTABILITY AND TERRAIN CANNOT REALLY ARGUE WITH IT...BUT THERE IS REALLY A LACK OF FORCING ABV THE BOUNDARY LYR. IT WILL BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. COULD SEE SOME COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOP AS WELL. ANY MORNING CLOUDS /FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY...GIVEN PERSISTENT SW FLOW AND EXPECTING THE DAY TO START WITH SOME SUN...AND SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. PERHAPS A BIT WARMER IN THE MTNS,...AND JUST A BIT COOLERAT THE COAST AS THE FLOW DOES WEAKEN A BIT...AND THERE WILL BETTER TURNING ONSHORE. THE DAY GETS MORE INTERESTING AS A FLATTENING 500MB WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE BEST DYNAMICS SHOULD LIFT N OF THE CWA...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND ENOUGH INCREASE IN MID LVL WINDS FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH CAPES IN THE VICINITY OF 1000-1500 J/KG. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THESE STORMS WHICH HAVE THE BEST CHC OF FORMING OVER THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS AND CT VLY. ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINERS...AS PWATS CLIMB TO WELL ABV NORMAL AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT TURNS JUST ENOUGH FOR BACK-BUILDING POTENTIAL.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFFSHORE...THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...THAT WILL WASHOUT AS IT SLIDES OFFSHORE AND ENCOUNTERS THE UPPER RIDGE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY RETREAT FURTHER OFFSHORE...OPENING THE DOOR FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD BY TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. SOME COASTAL FOG/STRATUS MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT KRKD...AND WILL LKLY SEE SOME VLY FOG AT KLEB/KHIE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. LONG TERM... THU...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SAT...AREAS OF MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT...BUT SUB-SCA...SW FLOW IS HELPING BUILD SWELLTO AROUND 5 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS SHOULD HOLD BLO SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO HOLD TO 5FT OR LESS INTO WED...BUT COULD INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY. LONG TERM... THU AND SAT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY. GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE ARE PSBL OUTSIDE THE BAYS.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK...AND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CEMPA SHORT TERM...CEMPA LONG TERM...SCHWIBS

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