Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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168 FXUS61 KGYX 041708 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1208 PM EST Sun Dec 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure will slowly build into the region today, before moving offshore tonight. A weak weather disturbance will bring some light snow to the region on Monday, especially southern and western sections of the forecast area. High pressure will settle in for Tuesday. Low pressure may affect the region with mixed precipitation Thursday with a cold blast following for Friday and over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1205 PM Update...Little change to the forecast. A pleasant afternoon is taking shape for most locations as high pressure gradually builds in from the west. 930 AM Update...Just a few minor adjustments to the going forecast this morning to take into account latest trends in sky cover, temperatures, and winds. Skies continues to clear out on the coastal plain this morning, and further clearing is expected today as subsidence increases. It will still take much of the day for the mountain zones to clear out though, as upslope conditions still favorable for clouds much of the day. 645 am update: Cyclonic northwest flow continues to spread a solid layer of stratocumulus clouds across the entire forecast area so updated sky grids to reflect the stubborn cloud cover through mid morning. By late morning enough subsidence moves into region with approaching ridge axis to dissipate this shallow layer of cloud cover. Previous Discussion: High pressure builds across the region today with skies becoming mostly sunny over southern and central sections while some clouds linger in the mountains through the afternoon. Temperatures will be colder today as cold air advection continues. Highs will range from the upper 20s in the mountains to upper 30s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... The ridge axis of high pressure crests over the region but by later at night mid/high clouds will begin spilling through the upper ridge axis. During the evening with clear skies/calm winds radiational cooling is expected so temps will drop quickly and lows to fall into the teens to mid 20s. The clouds that move in late may be enough to keep temps from falling further. On Monday a fast moving upper short wave with limited moisture will move through the region bringing snow showers across the area with some very light accumulations possible...especially over the hills of western and southwest NH where 1-2 inches is possible. Less than an inch accumulation expected further east into Maine as most of the moisture dries up as it moves across the mountains. High should be mostly in the upper 20s to lower 30s as per the blended model guidance. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will settle over New England Monday night. With light winds and a snowpack over northern areas, radiational cooling will allow for a chilly night. The cold air will be in place as a weak system passes south of the region late Tuesday night into Wednesday. As this system exits east of the New Jersey coastline a weak trough will cross the region from the west. This will bring a mixture of light rain and snow to the region. Very cold air will move east from the Great Lakes on Thursday. As it does so, cyclogenesis may result along the boundary, bringing low pressure through the Gulf of Maine. 00Z model suite is not totally on board with this solution, however many areas may have a shot of snow during the day as the system intensifies. Behind this area of developing low pressure, cold air will pour into the region on strong westerly winds late in the work week and over the weekend. && .AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term...VFR through tonight except MVFR cigs at KHIE this afternoon. Conditions becoming MVFR in snow showers Monday. Long Term... Areas of MVFR conditions in periods of light rain and snow on Monday and again Wednesday. The precipitation may be heavier by Thursday with areas of IFR conditions. && .MARINE... Short Term... 645 am update: have dropped the SCA for the outer waters as winds have finally dropped below criteria. Winds will continue to slowly diminish throughout the day. Previous Discussion Wind gusts continue to exceed 25 kts but will diminish over the next few hours. Will let the SCA over the outer waters expire at 8am. High pressure crests over the waters later today and tonight with near calm winds. Light winds will continue through Monday. Long Term... Gale force winds are possible behind a departing system on Thursday as winds shift out of the west. Gusty winds will continue right into the weekend. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE...Ekster

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