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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 060136 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
836 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR REGION
TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
.UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS A BIT AS SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF ACROSS SOUTHERN NH
AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT EXCEPT FOR LOW
STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS. CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF QUICKLY AND HAVE LOWERED A FEW SITES THAT
ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR OVERNIGHT LOWS. STILL LOOKING LIKE
NEGATIVE 20S IN THE NORTH TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE
FORM OF A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTHEAST OF OUR
REGION AS WELL. HOWEVER...FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THIS TROUGH
WILL LIKELY DELIVER SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW EMBEDDED
SQUALLS...ESPECIALLY OVER NH AND ADJACENT WESTERN MAINE. A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY PICK A QUICK INCH OR TWO...POSSIBLY UP TO 3 IN THE
WHITES.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP QUITE READILY. DID NOT GO WITH THE COLDEST GFS MOS GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME AS IT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN AND STIR SOME WIND FROM TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN. WHATEVER THE CASE MAY BE...A VERY COLD NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR MARCH.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT.
SHOULD BE A NICE DAY DESPITE THE COLD TEMPERATURES. WE THINK
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THURSDAY NIGHT COULD ACTUALLY BE COLDER
THAN TONIGHT AT MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE HIGH
OVERHEAD. MOS IS WARMER... BUT PATTERN RECOGNITION SAYS IT SHOULD
BE A FANTASTIC RADIATING NIGHT... EVEN ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PUSHES EAST ON FRIDAY... THOUGH THE RIDGE
AXIS PERSISTS WESTWARD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA... PERHAPS ALLOWING
COASTAL AREAS TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 10
DAYS.

LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON FRIDAY BUT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO FULLY INTERACT WITH AN
APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT UNTIL BOTH
ARE WELL OUT TO SEA. AS A RESULT... THIS LOW WILL PASS HARMLESSLY
TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER... THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING A RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER.
HOWEVER... BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM UP EVEN MORE THAN ON FRIDAY. DOWNSLOPING WINDS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT MAY ALLOW THE COASTAL PLAIN TO HIT 40 DEGREES
BEFORE COLD ADVECTION TAKES HOLD. THE FRONT WILL BE MOSTLY A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH VERY LITTLE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

AFTER THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
CONSIST OF NORTHWEST FLOW OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. THE RESULT WILL
BE MINOR WAVES MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE FLOW BRINGING
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR EVERY DAY OR TWO WITH LOW CHANCES
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. COLD AIR IS NOT QUITE AS INTENSE AS THE PAST FEW
WEEKS... SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 30S MOST
DAYS AND FALLING INTO THE TEENS MOST NIGHTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GFS AND ECMWF VARY ON HOW EACH MODEL HANDLES A PROGRESSING TROUGH
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF ALLOWS THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM JETS TO PHASE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY...
DEVELOPING A LARGE STORM SYSTEM TRACKING TOWARD THE EAST COAST
LATER IN THE WEEK. WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM LOWS MOSTLY SEPARATE... TRACKING THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. WAY TOO EARLY TO PICK A
WINNER ON THIS SORT OF THING... BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE A POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...OCCASIONAL MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NO MAJOR
WEATHER SYSTEMS TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ON THE HIGHER PLATFORMS. HOWEVER... PREVAILING
CONDITIONS WILL BE SUB-SCA... RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER... DUE TO THE COLD AIRMASS COMING OVER THE WATERS...
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY. THEREFORE A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH NOON ON THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...SEVERAL COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EACH
FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND SPEEDS BEHIND IT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES