National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 071915
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
215 PM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A FEW CLOUD STREAMERS OFF THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND THE MOUNTAINS INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE INTO THE
MARITIMES EARLY MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AT 18Z...A 1045 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS. COLD WESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE HIGH WAS PRODUCING
SOME CLOUD STREAMERS TO THE LEE OF THE GREAT LAKES THAT EXTENDED
INTO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON GOES IMAGERY...ALONG WITH
SOME DIMINISHING LIGHT RETURN ON NWS 88D DOPPLER RADAR. TREND WILL
BE DIMINISHING CLOUD WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING EAST TONIGHT. A MET/MAV BLEND YIELDS LOWS IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS AND TEENS ACROSS THE AREA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
ON SUNDAY...MODELS HINT THAT A FEW STREAMERS OFF THE GREAT LAKES
MAY RESULT IN A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH A STRAY FLURRY. OTHERWISE A PARTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 20F IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND
32F ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE HIGH CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA BY AFTERNOON.

THE HIGH WILL RETREAT OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MARITIMES
OPENING THE DOOR FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE. INITIALLY...ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SNOW
AS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECAST REMAINS COMPLICATED FOR MON THRU THE EVENING...AS WARM
FNT/OCCLUSION PUSHES THRU THE CWFA. FOR STARTERS...STRONG HIGH
PRES ANCHORED TO OUR NE WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING TOO MUCH AS
AGEOSTROPHIC NE FLOW KEEPS THE INTERIOR LOCKED AOB FREEZING. WAA
ALOFT WILL BRING MID LVL TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS SRN NH AND
COASTAL WRN ME. EXPECT THE COLUMN IN THE MTNS TO REMAIN MOSTLY
BELOW FREEZING. FOR THE TEMP PROFILE USED MAINLY NAM FOR THE 2M
TEMPS...WITH A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS FOR TEMPS ALOFT.

NEXT ISSUE IS QPF. NWP HAS BACKED OFF ON THE FORECAST...WITH ECMWF
REMAINING THE MOST BULLISH ON AMOUNTS. S/WV TROF SHEARING OUT WITH
TIME DOES NOT LEND ITSELF TO A LARGE QPF PRODUCER. IN
ADDITION...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ARGUES FOR LOWER NUMBERS AS WELL.
FINALLY...PRECIP GENERATION APPEARS IN QUESTION WHEN LOOKING AT
THE RH PROFILE THRU THE COLUMN. THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE REMAINS
LARGELY UNSATURATED ON MON. THE RESULT PTYPE COULD FAVOR LONG
PERIODS OF FZDZ OR BOUTS OF FZRA/PL INSTEAD OF SNFL. HAVE UNDERCUT
MODEL QPF AMOUNTS...STAYING CLOSER TO HPC GUIDANCE. LATER MON HAVE
ALSO CONTINUED TO MENTION AREAS OF FZDZ...WITH LESS THAN A TENTH
OF A INCH ICING.

BOTTOM LINE IS DESPITE A PALTRY SYSTEM...IT IS LOOKING LIKE A
MESSY DAY MON...ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR. COULD SEE THE NEED
FOR AN ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY FOR COMBINATION OF PYTPES...BUT AT
THIS TIME WILL DEFER TO LATER SHIFTS AS NWP CONTINUES TO TREND
AWAY FROM MUCH QPF.

COLD AIR ARRIVES IN EARNEST BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY AS
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR FOLLOWS A S/WV TIMED FOR MIDWEEK.
WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF SCT SHSN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THAT
WAVE...FOLLOWED BY H8 TEMPS FALLING SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. EXPECT THAT TEMPS WILL FAIL TO GET ABOVE FREEZING FROM
MIDWEEK ON THRU THE WEEKEND. 07/12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF THE
TRULY BITTER COLD IN THE EXTENDED...NO LONGER SHOWING -30 C AIR
MOVING INTO PARTS OF NRN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS NEAR
-20...SIMILAR TO THE GFS...SO WILL CONTINUE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE IN
THE LONGER RANGE. PERIODS OF UPSLOPE SHSN WILL RULE THE
EXTENDED...WITH DRY CONDITIONS DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 11Z MON/...VFR. MVFR DEVELOPING ACROSS NH AND
WESTERN ME AFT 05Z MON WITH AREAS OF IFR IN SNOW.

LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS CONTINUE MON IN FG...LOW
CIGS...DZ...AND SN. THERE COULD BE SOME FZRA OR FZDZ FOR A
TIME...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS MON AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE COAST. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN LATE MON INTO TUE...THOUGH GUSTY NW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK. UPSLOPE SHSN WILL ALSO KEEP KHIE MVFR OR
LOWER THRU MIDWEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...

-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...THERE WILL BE A SURGE IN THE
NW WINDS EARLY TONIGHT AND WE SHOULD TOUCH SCA IN GUSTS OUTSIDE
THE BAYS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. I EXPANDED THE SCA FOR ALL THE WATERS
OUTSIDE THE BAYS FOR TONIGHT. SEAS AND WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD BY SUNDAY MORNING UNDER THE BUILDING HIGH.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS RETURN MON IN NE FLOW OVER THE WATERS.
EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS WITH SEAS BUILDING ABOVE 5 FT. A
BRIEF BREAK IS FORECAST MON NIGHT BEFORE CAA OVER THE WATERS
BRINGS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY NW FLOW AND SEAS ABOVE 5 FT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/LEGRO