Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 100218 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1018 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THU THROUGH FRI. HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SAT. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN MONDAY WITH SOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... 1015 PM UPDATE... BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE ACTIVITY IS STRONGER AND MORE LIKELY TO LAST AS IT MOVES EAST. UPDATED HOURLY POP TO REFLECT CURRENT THINKING. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST. 745 PM UPDATE... SOME OF THE REMNANT SHOWERS HAVE MADE THEIR WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE. HAVE RAISED HOURLY POP NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF PORTLAND FOR THIS. OTHERWISE... STILL SEEING ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST TRYING TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA. STILL EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES. 445PM UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED POP TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS IN CONVECTION. RIDGING ALOFT AND DRYING AT THE SURFACE HAS DECREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS TO THE SOUTHWEST... AND SOME LINGERING STORMS WILL DRIFT INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING. THINK THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LOW... BUT SOME DYING STORMS MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. STORM AT LEBANON JUST CAUSED 35 MPH GUSTS. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ZONES IN AN HOUR OR SO. HAVE INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL FOR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. DON/T EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN A POSSIBLE ISOLATED SEVERE CELL OR TWO IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. SHOWERS AND THUNDER SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND USHER EVEN DRIER AIR. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWER HUMIDITY BUT STILL WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWER 80S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO START THE PERIOD...AND BRING GREAT WEATHER WITH LOW HUMIDITY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFF SHORE AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A RETURN TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY...HOWEVER THAT ALL DEPENDS ON THE SPEED OF A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF CANADA. KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POP IN THERE FOR NOW...WITH THE MOST LIKELY SHOT OF SEEING ANYTHING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. MONDAY AND TUESDAY IS WHEN THAT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AHEAD OF A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA...AND BE THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND PROVIDES ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH OUT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN BEHIND IT. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR WITH ISOLATED MVFR/IFR FOR LEB... HIE... AND CON IN THUNDER. LONG TERM... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WILL MAKE FOR PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR SEAS THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW. OTHERWISE QUIET ON THE WATERS. LONG TERM... SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE

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