Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 241031 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 631 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will gradually sink to the south of New England today allowing for warmer than normal temperatures on a southwesterly wind. The warm weather will continue Thursday into Friday when a cold front moves through. There will be a chance of showers and possible thunderstorms as the front moves through, otherwise, expect drier and slightly cooler conditions for the weekend. Another frontal system may bring showers and thunderstorms early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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630 AM Update...Little change to the going forecast. Patchy valley fog will burn off shortly allowing for a mostly sunny day. Previously... High pressure at the surface this morning will gradually sink to the south of New England today. This will allow a warm return flow to develop and will likely result in highs a good 10 degrees above normal today. Dewpoint values will increase as well but level off only in the upper 50s to lower 60s which should keep it from feeling all too uncomfortable.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... A short wave trough will approach the region late tonight with little fanfare. Deep layer moisture will be lacking and will only be sufficient for a few clouds to move into western zones late tonight or early Thursday morning. As that short wave trough moves across the region on Thursday we expect a period of clouds but little in the way of precipitation, perhaps a few spot showers or thunderstorms late in the day across the mountains. Dewpoint values Thursday should creep up a little bit, making it feel a little more uncomfortable for some folks. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... After the initial shortwave trough moves off to the east Thursday afternoon, another will approach from the west Thursday night. With a little more moisture and lift to work with, this one will have a better chance of producing showers or thunderstorms by Friday morning as a cold front sharpens and gets pushed eastward with the advancing trough. Coverage does not look to be widespread, but scattered showers with a chance of a thunderstorm can be expected along and ahead of the front as it moves through during the day Friday. Wind shear looks pretty good especially in the low levels, so any stronger updrafts that can form could rotate. Instability is the limiting factor with thunderstorms Friday, though as has been proven again recently it does not take a lot of instability to get a rogue spin up. Timing of the frontal passage does not seem to favor a traditional diurnally triggered severe weather event as the front should move into central and eastern Maine by early afternoon. Behind the front expect a brief period of stronger winds as downsloping allows some of the stronger winds aloft to mix down. Decided to go a little above guidance on winds in the afternoon. Although we do have a cold front moving through, temperatures Friday afternoon will be just as warm, if not warmer, than Thursday due to the downsloping winds. Cooler temperatures won`t really be felt until Saturday although forecast highs are still a few degrees above normal. High pressure crosses the area on Sunday, shifting into the western Atlantic. Models are fairly consistent in bringing another shortwave trough and associated frontal system through the area early next week, though there are some timing differences. GFS is a little quicker with the wave while the ECMWF is slower and wetter. Either way it looks like a decent chance of showers or thunderstorms on Monday especially in the north. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term...VFR conditions will prevail thru Thursday. Any river valley fog should burn off early this morning. Winds to turn more southerly during this afternoon and Thursday afternoon at coastal terminals. Long Term...There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms early on Friday as a cold front moves through the area. This could bring MVFR conditions at times, especially in the mountains. VFR conditions dominate through the weekend although this time of year early morning fog is almost always a possibility at Whitefield and Lebanon. && .MARINE... Short Term...Conditions will remain below small craft thresholds today through Thursday morning. However, a small craft advisory may be required Thursday afternoon as southerly winds increase and become gusty. Long Term...Borderline advisory level wind gusts possible through early Friday ahead of the cold front. Once the front moves through there could be a brief period of gusty winds out of the northwest but in general wind speeds should be diminishing. High pressure over the Gulf of Maine brings light winds and calming seas through the weekend. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Ekster SHORT TERM...Ekster LONG TERM...Kimble

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