Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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441 FXUS61 KGYX 261031 AAA AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 631 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through northern New England this morning. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected along the front, with winds shifting to the northwest in the afternoon as the front moves offshore. It will be hot with temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s. High pressure builds in out of Canada on Saturday with another warm day in the 80s. High pressure moves east on Sunday as another front approaches from the west. This front will cross the area Sunday night into Monday with another round of showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... 630AM UPDATE... Have decided to increase precipitation chances again across the center of the forecast area where current area of rain is expected to move. Still occasional embedded lightning strikes noted with this activity just now arriving in New Hampshire. Much of this should be offshore by early afternoon. 5AM UPDATE... We are beginning to see the whites of its eyes on regional radar as showers are expanding in coverage over upstate New York and into Vermont. Have decided to increase precipitation chances based on increased confidence in a more widespread rain event. Also seeing occasional lightning strikes embedded in there, so a mention of thunder as this moves through remains warranted. Otherwise no significant changes needed. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... Cold front to our west has already begun producing showers over upstate New York. These will spread into New Hampshire before 8AM and into Maine through the morning. Cannot rule out a stray thunderstorm as well. After the front moves through today expect winds to shift to the northwest eventually bringing in drier air. The shift to northwest winds will cause downslope warming and temperatures should warm into the upper 80s to low 90s later in the afternoon after the rain moves away. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/... Drier air moving in from the north will allow temperatures to fall into the 50s for most of the area tonight. Saturday will not be quite as warm without the downsloping winds but it should still be above normal with widespread 80+ temperatures. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The extended generally looks fairly quiet. The broad picture initially favors troffing in the Wrn CONUS and conversely ridging E. That supports a warmer than normal pattern for the first part of the forecast period. Both the 26.00z GFS and ECMWF trend towards the opposite pattern by the latter halves of their respective runs. Lower heights across the Northeast would likely spell cooler than normal...cloudy...and a chance of showers each day. I am not ready to bite on that solution quiet yet...as model guidance can tend to drill heights down in that region too much...to fast. In addition there is model interaction with Invest 99 moving thru the Turks and Caicos that is influencing downstream output. In the medium range...a front is set to cross the area Sun night. The parent s/wv trof shears off into Canada...and leaves forcing rather meager across Nrn New England. There will be scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm...though CAPE is limited and mostly elevated...but overall QPF looks better to our W where daytime heating will assist in sustaining convection. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term...Early morning fog at Lebanon and Whitefield should dissipate as showers move in and the front passes by. Showers and brief MVFR conditions possible at all sites, but most likely in the western and southern areas through this morning. Should clear to VFR areawide later this morning with a northwest flow developing. Long Term...VFR conditions are expected to prevail for much of the extended. A front crossing the area Sun night will bring scattered MVFR in SHRA and maybe a TSRA. Any heavier convection could bring local IFR or lower conditions. Otherwise high pressure is in control thru midweek...with patchy valley fog a possibility at night. && .MARINE... Short Term...Southwest winds should remain below advisory levels today with wave heights generally less than 5 FT. Cold front moves offshore early this afternoon with a shift to northwest winds behind it. Long Term...Winds and seas look to remain below SCA thresholds thru the weekend. Frontal passage on Monday and off shore winds may allow seas outside of the bays to build to near 5 ft. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Kimble SHORT TERM...Kimble LONG TERM...Legro

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