Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 151921 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 321 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A warm southwest flow will continue into this evening. Low pressure will track east through southern Canada tonight driving a trailing cold front through the region. Canadian high pressure with cooler and dry weather follows for Monday into Tuesday. A large ridge of high pressure builds across the eastern U.S. allowing a warm dry southwest flow to return for the last half of the week and into the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A warm front pushed northwards through the region today. Strong south to southwesterly flow will continue through evening as southern Maine and New Hampshire remains in the warm sector. Winds are currently gusting to around 20kts. Temperatures have climbed to near 70F and will hold fairly warm ahead of the fropa later tonight. A strong low level jet is present with this line, however the relatively low mixing heights and late timing of the front will prevent the core of the jet from mixing to the surface. The highest wind gusts will be just before sunset as the pressure gradient and low level jet approaches before we begin to see the surface layer stabilize. A few gusts to around 30kts are possible particularly along the eastern portion of the coastline such as the Camden hills and Penobscot bay islands.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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A fine line is easily visible on both radar and satellite demarcating the cold front just entering western New York at 3pm. This line of showers with some embedded thunder will push east at a good clip expected to arrive into the Ct River valley around 9pm. This timing has been well handled by short term models and has been quite consistent all day thus PoPs remain low through sunset. With the strength of the front a rumble of thunder especially along our southwest border as the front moves in can`t be ruled out but the late timing both seasonally and time of day will prevent widespread thunder from being a concern. The front will cross the region over night with scattered showers. Behind it is a shift to west to northwesterly flow. Winds will subside overnight but persistent flow will prevent any fog from forming and keep temperatures into the 50s overnight. Monday will be colder than today as the northwesterly post-frontal flow gradually subsides through the day.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A westerly zonal flow aloft will exist through midweek. By late in the week and into the weekend a high amplitude broad upper long wave ridge axis builds across the eastern US. This all means a dry weather pattern through the outlook period. After a cool day/night Tuesday, the rest of the outlook period looks to return to above normal temperatures. Accepted the superblend guidance for temps and POPs.
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&& .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Short Term...Low ceilings have finally pushed eastwards as south to southwesterly warm advection continues this afternoon. VFR conditions will continue for the next 6 hours with south winds gusting to 25kts as a cold front approaches. The cold front will cross the region this evening resulting in a brief reduction to MVFR ceilings in showers and the front passes. VFR conditions with west becoming northwesterly flow will continue through Monday. Long Term...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term... Strong south to southwesterly flow ahead of a cold front will impact the coastal waters through evening. Forecast soundings show 50kts low level jet around 2000ft parallel to and just ahead of the front this evening. With the waters over the Gulf of Maine still relatively warm /in the upper 50s to 60F/ expect the surface to remain well enough mixed for some of these gusts to reach the ocean. Thus a Gale warning has been issued for the easternmost ocean zones where there is the greatest southwesterly fetch. Elsewhere a Small craft advisory remains in place. Long Term... Wed and Thu...Small craft conditions are possible outside the bays.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for ANZ151-153-154. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ150-152. && $$ .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for ANZ151-153-154. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ150-152. && $$ NEAR TERM...Curtis SHORT TERM...Curtis LONG TERM...Marine

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