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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 151356
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
956 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY TODAY INTO SUNDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --
950 UPDATE...
TEMPS RISING QUICKLY THIS MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UNEVENTFUL DAY IN STORE FOR THE NORTHEAST TODAY WEATHER-WISE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. WNW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE CUSP OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING
HIGH PRESSURE. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS
MIXING ENSUES. RH VALUES DO DROP TO 25-30% ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
BUT RECENT RAINFALL AND WINDS LESS THAN 25 MPH SHOULD PRECLUDE
DANGEROUS FIRE ACTIVITY. THE WINDS WILL ALSO HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE NIGHT WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR PART OF THE NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST. LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL
CROSS WEST TO EAST BEGINNING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
LOOKS ALMOST NON EXISTENT THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. QPF SHOULD AVERAGE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH COUNTIES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER FARTHER
IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND CLEARING OUT ON MONDAY. DETAILS REGARDING TIMING ARE
STILL SKETCHY AT THIS POINT AS MODELS ARE HANDLING SURFACE
FEATURES AND AREAS OF PRECIPITATION DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS PROVIDES
A QUICKER SOLUTION WITH A SHARPER CLEARING BEHIND A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SURFACE LOW EARLY MONDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR
80 DEGREES. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

BEYOND TUESDAY... GFS MODEL BECOMES A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER. CMC AND
ECMWF PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. GFS DEVELOPS A SHARP TROUGH AND STRONG
SURFACE LOW WHICH TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND NEAR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT... SPREADING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS SOLUTION IS RADICALLY
DIFFERENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE OTHER AVAILABLE
MODELS. TRACING BACK THE ORIGINS OF THIS ABNORMALITY IT CAN BE
SEEN DEVELOPING AS A RESULT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY. IT SUBSEQUENTLY MORPHS INTO A FULL FLEDGED
CYCLONE TRACKING ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. DUE TO
ITS ORIGINATION IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY... IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS
FEATURE IS AN ARTIFACT CREATED IN THE MODEL STEMMING FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGH PLAINS AND NOT A LEGITIMATE SOLUTION. AS
A RESULT... DID NOT INCLUDE THE GFS WHEN PREPARING THE FORECAST
BEYOND TUESDAY. RELIED MORE HEAVILY ON THE ECMWF AND HPC GUIDANCE
FOR ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.

EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE AND QUIET CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
A FEW HOURS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING ONCE THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE MINIMIZED.

LONG TERM...PERIODS OF MVFR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
EXPECT CLEARING TUESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE IN THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.

LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL INCREASE ON
SUNDAY BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. GFS WINDS WERE A
LITTLE TOO STRONG DUE TO ITS STRONGER SURFACE LOW AND AS A RESULT
WNA WAVE HEIGHTS SEEMED A BIT OVER DONE AS WELL. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS THEREAFTER.
GFS MODEL WAS NOT USED FOR THE FORECAST DUE TO ITS DEVELOPMENT OF
A STRONG SURFACE LOW TRACKING NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT... WNA WAVE HEIGHTS OF UP TO 10 FEET HAD
TO BE THROWN OUT TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH THE LIGHT NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE FORECAST. OVERALL... ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
BUT NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...