Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 300153 AAC AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 953 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD BE QUITE HOT FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. A COLD FRONT COULD COOL US DOWN BY LATE WEEK. SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS NOT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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.UPDATE... AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS HAS NOT PRODUCED PRECIPITATION SO FAR BUT RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR. WILL BE MONITORING THIS OVERNIGHT... BUT FOR NOW HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NH AND WESTERN MAINE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FORCING PASSES BY ALOFT.
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&& PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WEAK SSW TO NNE FLOW ALOFT IS STEERING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS MAY PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION IN A FEW SPOTS BUT IT SEEMS POSSIBLE WE WILL STILL SEE FOG IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TOWARDS MORNING. HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ONE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDS AND A FEW SPOT SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE 80S. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL COME THROUGH WITH VERY LITTLE FANFARE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL START TO SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER. TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY WILL BE 10F TO 15F DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN VALLEY FOG. LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO PRODUCE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT FAVORED LOCATIONS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 KT GUSTS AND 4 FT SEAS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SWLY LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HANES SHORT TERM...EKSTER LONG TERM...POHL

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