Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 172143 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 443 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front lifts into the northeast tonight followed by a cold front on Saturday afternoon. A secondary cold front will slowly approach from the north Sunday and will drop south through the region Sunday night. High pressure will build in from the west on Monday and will crest over the area on Tuesday. High pressure will shift offshore Tuesday night as a warm front pushes in from the west. The warm front will push east of the region on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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445PM UPDATE... Afternoon dewpoints have dropped considerably with good mixing conditions. Have updated the forecast primarily to adjust these values based on current observed trends. Have also made a few minor tweaks to overnight lows as high pressure moves overhead tonight providing good radiational cooling conditions. Could see some cloud cover moving in late which could limit overall cooling potential, though. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... It`s been quite a while since much of the region has seen the sun but at 3pm skies were clear across northern New England. The departing low pressure provides for a gusty northwesterly wind with gusts to 20-25mph. High pressure will build in from the west this evening and winds will decrease soon after sunset. With the clear skies some colder pockets will develop. A very weak disturbance passing through late in the overnight into tomorrow morning will increase clouds for the mountains and keep temperatures from dropping below zero.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will remain in control for Saturday keeping skies mostly clear. Only exception will be the northern mountains where continued upslope flow may managed to eek out a few flurries. Warm air aloft will allow temperatures to climb into the mid 40s south to upper 30s north. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... This coming week looks like a welcome period of rest from snowfall for New England outside of a few scattered orographic showers. Temperatures will also be above normal most days with readings in the 40s forecast for highs several times this week. A cold front will be pushing south through the region on Sunday before moving offshore and becoming less defined. Upslope snow showers will bring some light accumulations to NH and the western ME mountains during this time with some areas changing over to rain during the day. Temperatures ahead of the front will surge into the 40s for much of the area on westerly winds. Gusty NW flow follows for Monday with high pressure centered well to the north influencing the weather. Moisture is scarce Monday and early Tuesday and morning lows will reflect colder temperatures with single digits north to teens south Tuesday morning. High pressure moves into the Gulf of Maine and dives south as a weak disturbance aloft attempts to drag a cold front east. Depending on the timing we may see a mix of rain and snow with this system Wednesday and Thursday...but QPF amounts will be light in any case. High pressure returns for Friday. Isentropic lift and moisture increase Friday night into Saturday with a more significant precipitation event which again looks like a mix of rain and snow given the warm temperatures that will be in place. && .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Short Term...VFR conditions are expected through Saturday. Wind gusts will rapidly diminishing this evening. Long Term...VFR Sunday with areas of MVFR ceilings in the mountains in the afternoon in -SHSN. VFR Monday and Tuesday.
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&& .MARINE... Short Term...SCA`s remain up on the ocean waters however have dropped the bays with this update. Expect winds to diminish overnight and expect below SCA by midnight. SCA conditions may once again develop later Saturday afternoon. Long Term...Sunday night into Monday night winds will increase in response to a cold frontal passage to near 25 kts and may require a SCA for the waters. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for ANZ150- 152-154.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE...Kimble SHORT TERM...Curtis LONG TERM...Hanes

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