Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 280151 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 951 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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950 PM...ONLY CHANGES THIS UPDATE WERE TO T/TD MAINLY FOR ADJUSTMENTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON CURRENT OBS. 6 PM...MADE SOME TWEAKS TO T/TD BASED ON CURRENT OBS...SET SKIES TO ZERO THROUGH TONIGHT...AND ADJUSTED GRID WINDS DOWN TO MAKE THEM MORE CONSISTENT WITH FORECAST THINKING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT RAD COOLING...BUT WITH 850MB TEMPS 15-18C AND A SFC STARTING POINT ABV 80F...IT WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. SOME OF THE HILLTOPS WILL BE THE WARMEST SPOTS...WHERE SOME MIXING WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A TEMP FALL. PREVIOUSLY...CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPS IN COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. ELSEWHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... CLEAR AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO TOP OUT WITH A FEW DEGREES OF 80. COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. ASIDE FROM INCREASING CLOUDS IN NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD BE A DRY NIGHT AS SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS NORTH OF THE BORDER. LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND AN WEST-EAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK...THE CANADIAN-NH AND GFS REPLACE THE TROUGH WITH RIDGING...WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER WITH LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT SITUATED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. I`M BEEN A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC THEN THE ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND CANADIAN STILL PAINT A PICTURE OF PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTH. SO...I`M INCLINED TO BRINGS CLOUDS AND CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS BY FRIDAY. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE MODELS COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT. VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM... MON NIGHT - TUE...SCT MVFR IN SHOWERS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS. LONG TERM... MON PM - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...CEMPA SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE...

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