Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 160944 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 343 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. GUSTY NW WINDS FOLLOW BEHIND EXITING LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A MOIST LOW LEVEL SSELY FLOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE W SPREADING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. THERE IS THE CHANCE OF A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY AS THE MOIST MARITIME AIR MASS DEEPENS. NEEDLESS TO DAY BUT A CLOUDY DAY EXPECTED. THE STRATUS OVER THE MTNS AND WRN NH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL AND WILL BE JOINED WITH THIS MOISTURE FROM THE E. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE MTNS TO NEAR 40 ALONG THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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TONIGHT A SFC/UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST AND SPAWNING A WEAK SFC LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS PROFILE TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM OVER MOST AREAS EXCEPT IN THE MTNS WHERE A MIXED PTYPE WILL BE EXPECTED. SINCE THERE WILL BE A MIX EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS, VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS. USED THE RFCQPF FOR PCPN AND SUPERBLEND FOR POPS/TEMPS.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... LIKELY POPS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THAT AREA COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PIVOTING OFFSHORE AND DEPENDING ON ITS EXACT LOCATION WILL CHANGE THE PLACEMENT OF THE RAIN SNOW LINE AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST...WITH SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ONGOING IN BETWEEN. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE THURSDAY MORNING WE WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE INTERFACE OF THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH AND THE MILDER AIR OVER THE OCEAN. CURRENT DATA INDICATING QPF AMOUNTS VARYING WIDELY BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WOULD BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPWARDS OF 4-6" OF SNOW COULD FALL OVER PORTIONS OF COOS/OXFORD/FRANKLIN/SOMERSET COUNTIES WHICH WOULD SEE A LONGER DURATION SNOWFALL BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT. USING THE MIXED PRECIPITATION ICE TOOL GIVES LESS ICE THAN TRADITIONAL MEANS... WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS TRULY ACCUMULATING THROUGH THE STORM. BEYOND THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL HAVE GUSTY NW FLOW FRIDAY BEHIND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SATURDAY. LONG TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED TROUGH/ COASTAL STORM FORMING AND CROSSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK MONDAY DECEMBER 23. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM TO WATCH. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN DEVELOPING AREAS OF DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN RAIN TONIGHT INTO WED. LONG TERM...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL CLEAR OUT MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY THURSDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. LINGERING IFR IS EXPECTED IN THE MTNS...WHERE SHSN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...THE DEVELOPING SELY ONSHORE FETCH WILL ALLOW SEAS TO GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA CRITERIA LATER TONIGHT AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THUS A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED. LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE...MAINLY FOR WIND GUSTS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$

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