Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 030126 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 926 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH BY THIS EVENING. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETURNING AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO SETTLE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FEW DAYS OF COOLER...ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERY WEATHER PERHAPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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920 PM UPDATE: RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS ALL OF NH AND SOUTHWEST ME. STILL SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND COASTAL MIDCOAST AREAS BUT WILL BE ENDING THERE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS FORECAST. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST OBS. 620 PM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST MESONET DATA. THE SLUG OF RAIN NOW OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN MAINE EXITING THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHAT WILL BE LEFT IS AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THE REST OF THE EVENING. NO NEED FOR ANY REAL CHANGES AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR TWEAKING TEMPS BASED ON LATEST HOURLY OBS DATA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A SLUG OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND PERHAPS DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL REMAIN IN ITS WAKE AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST. THAT WILL BE THE STORY FOR TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL MOVE WELL TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS ONE LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH...HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN MAY GRAZE SOUTHERNMOST NH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AFTER ANY LIGHT RAIN MOVES ON OUT OF SOUTHERNMOST NH IN THE MORNING...THE BULK OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY FOR MOST EVERYONE. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK TROFFING LINGERING...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL...HOWEVER A WARMER DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND PERHAPS A FEW LOW 60S READINGS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT SOME FOG AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LATER ON AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST. BY LATE SATURDAY...THIS TROUGH WILL FINALLY EXIT THE COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WHICH QUICKLY TAKES ITS PLACE. THE OVERALL THEME OF THIS PATTERN WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. IN THE DAILIES....ONSHORE FLOW AND A SYSTEM PASSING OFFSHORE CLOUD PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY WHILE WEAK RIDGING FROM THE NORTH MAY PROVIDE A DRY DAY AND A FEW SUNNY BREAKS TO FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE ZONES. CONTINUED UNSETTLED THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF LOWS TRACK NORTH ON A STALLED OFFSHORE BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND THE UPPER TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. PERHAPS A BRIEF BREAK LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY IN WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN THE DEPARTING TROUGH AND THE ARRIVING ONE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL GENERATE A FEW CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ELEVATION DEPENDENT...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT LATE MONDAY WITH RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT OFFERING A WARM DRY DAY FOR A CHANGE ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE/RAIN WILL KEEP CONDITIONS IFR OR WORSE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR TONIGHT AS THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE GOES LIFR IN FOG FOR MANY LOCATIONS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE METMOS IMPROVES THINGS QUITE A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN. THE NARRE-TL IS ON THE SIDE OF THE NAM LATE THIS EVENING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT RATHER THAN SLAMMING EVERYONE DOWN. HAVE SIDED WITH THE LATTER CONSENSUS WITH NO WIDESPREAD 1/2 MILE OR LESS VSBYS. HOWEVER...WITH THAT SAID WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE IT LOCALLY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. LONG TERM... WED - SAT...AREAS OF MVFR IN CEILINGS AND SHOWERS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT... AN INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BEGIN GENERATING WAVES WHICH WILL HEAD WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 FEET SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN SUB-SCA MUCH OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM... WED PM - FRI...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE BAYS IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. && .FIRE WEATHER... WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK WILL BE CONSISTENTLY CLOUDY AND MOIST WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW AND MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... BEGINNING THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE ARE SET FOR A PERIOD OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THE HIGHEST TIDES WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WHEN PORTLAND IS FORECAST TO REACH 11.9 FEET AT 1135 PM AND 1226 AM RESPECTIVELY. COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY. IF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS A LITTLE SOONER OR STRONGER...COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS THE THURSDAY EVENING TIDE. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$

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