Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 270210 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1010 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... 1010 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED POPS AND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NRN NH MAY PERSIST OCCASIONALLY FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS WEAK FORCING TRAVERSES THE AREA. 740 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. SHOWERS REMAIN VERY ISOLATED. A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP TONIGHT WITH WEAK WAA IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT THAT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. 520 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED POPS AND TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST NH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. PREVIOUSLY... CEILINGS GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BREAKING ACROSS WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH HEATING IN WESTERN ZONES TO PRODUCE MODEST CAPES AND SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THE WINDOW TO BE BRIEF. FARTHER EAST...LITTLE CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SUN DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST MAINE. STRATUS WILL HANG IN ACROSS MOST OF MAINE OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG. FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BLANKET MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... FOG AND STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF ON MONDAY GIVING WAY TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. SOME MARGINAL CAPES DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT NOT LOOKING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD. HIGH TEMPS IN INLAND LOCATION WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. COASTAL AREAS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 70S. WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN MAINE MONDAY NIGHT MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN ZONES BUT FORCING RATHER LIMITED SO NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING WIDESPEAD. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SOME FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD REGARDING TIMING OF CONVECTION AND HOW HOT IT WILL GET IN SOME PLACES. HOWEVER...ON THE LARGER SCALE...MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT MODERATELY AMPLIFIED 500MB RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TUE-THU...AND 90+ READINGS ARE EXPECTED WED AND THU...AT LEAST IN PARTS OF SRN NH AND INTERIOR SW ME. SHEARING 500 MB TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH AROUND THU NIGHT...WHICH WILL COOL THINGS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE COMPACT 500 MB WAVE THAT DIGS ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUE INTO WED AND WHETHER ITS STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO ME LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT. IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST FROM REACHING 90 THIS WEEK...AS COASTAL AREAS WERE UNLIKELY TO HIT 90...GIVEN SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER...THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS DOES CROSS JUST TO THE N OF THE CWA...AND MODELS SUGGESTING THAT...GIVEN DECENT SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING TO HELP GET CONVECTION GOING. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE CONVECTION MIGHT NEED A TRIGGER AND OTHER THAN SOME SCT STORMS IN THE TERRAIN...THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO ACTIVATE THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. ALSO...GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND THE DYNAMICS...THERE COULD BE SOME THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TUE AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY BY SUNSET AS TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OUT AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN. WED SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMT OF SUN AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S INLAND...AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ON THE COAST. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT WE COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION POP UP ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AGAIN /OR IN THE TERRAIN/ BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER THAN TUE...IF ANYTHING FIRES AT ALL. WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S...MAINLY IN URBAN SRN NH. COLD FRONT APPROACHES THU...AND SUPPORTING 500MB WAVE DOES BEGIN TO SHEAR AND LIFT POLEWARD...SO BETTER CHC FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE NRN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO BETTER DYNAMICS. IT WILL GET HOT ONCE AGAIN...AND DEPENDING ON TIMING OF CLOUDS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT...COULD BE EVEN WARMER THAN WED. COASTAL AREAS MAY GET THRU THE DAY WITH NO PRECIP...WHICH MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING OR JUST DIMINISH INLAND. T/TD FALLS BACK ON FRI AND SAT...BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL. A WEAK WAVE COULD SET OFF SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA IN THE MTNS ON SAT. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY OVERNIGHT. BECOMING VFR ON MONDAY. AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY IN AREA OF FOG MONDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR TUE THRU FRI. SCT TSRA POSSIBLE TUE AND THU AFTERNOON. VLY FOG EXPECTED AT KHIE/KLEB TUE AND WED NIGHT. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS. LONG TERM...SEAS/WINDS REMAIN COMFORTABLY BLO SCA LVLS THRU FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW IN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TUE/WED/THU AFTERNOON. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE...

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