Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 261035 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 635 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON MONDAY AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 630 AM UPDATE...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLOUDY WITH SOME FOG BUT RAIN-FREE FOR MUCH OF THIS MORNING. PREVIOUSLY... WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THEN BEGIN TO MOVE BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MORNING SHOULD BE OK WEATHERWISE...MOSTLY DRY WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 45-55 RANGE ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING WITH 60 NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION IF THE SUN BREAKS OUT ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO TO EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AND MAY CHANGE THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW BY DARK AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THE COLUMN WILL COOL ENOUGH FOR ANY RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ZONES BY EARLY EVENING. THE CHANGEOVER WILL TAKE LONGER AT LOWER ELEVATIONS UP THERE. WE HAVE A FORECAST OF 3 TO 6 INCHES TONIGHT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER IN NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS HIE AND BML...A COUPLE OF SLUSHY INCHES MAY FALL. FURTHER SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NH...A CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. IF THE COLD AIR COMES IN FAST ENOUGH THESE AREAS COULD GET A SLUSHY COATING. ANY LINGER LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY MORNING. PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN TO AT LEAST NORTHERN ZONES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES DIFFER MARKEDLY AFTER SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER AFTER EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD...AS THE MEAN JET POSITION WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST...AND PROVIDE A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE EXITING THE COAST. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT PROVIDES A QUIET...SUNNY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL DAY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF/CMC- GLOBAL SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD IMPROVE THIS MORNING TO AT LEAST MVFR IF NOT VFR FOR A FEW HOURS. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR RETURNS ON FRIDAY. LONG TERM... SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN MTN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD TO SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND ANOTHER SCA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED. LONG TERM... SAT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE. MON...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. && .HYDROLOGY... WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ153-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ152. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150. && $$ NEAR TERM...EKSTER SHORT TERM...EKSTER LONG TERM...SCHWIBS

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