Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 280702 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 302 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AND WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST TODAY WITH THE WARM WEATHER CONTINUING. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REACH 80 AGAIN TODAY AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. HOWEVER... WITH AN INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW... A WEAK LEE TROUGH WILL FORM NEAR THE MAINE/NEW HAMPSHIRE BORDER. WINDS TO THE EAST OF THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE MUCH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT... BRINGING COOLER AIR FROM OFF THE WATER INTO THE LAND AREAS PRIMARILY FROM PORTLAND EASTWARD. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW A SEABREEZE TO ADVANCE INLAND EARLIER IN THE DAY TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. RECORD HIGH AT PORTLAND IS 82 DEGREES (1948). WITH CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES THIS RECORD IS IN DANGER OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN. RECORD HIGH AT CONCORD IS 90 (1873) AND THIS SHOULD BE SAFE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
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ONE MORE WARM NIGHT EXPECTED. COULD SEE FOG AGAIN PRIMARILY IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT... SO EASTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE EARLIER. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST... TEMPERATURES MAY WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AGAIN BEFORE COOLING OFF LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WARMEST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL BLOCK THE ADVANCING MARITIME AIR MASS. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CLOUDS ARRIVE WITH THE FRONT OR JUST BEHIND IT. FOG AND DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS A COOL AND MOIST AIR MASS MOVES IN.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A NORTHEASTERLY WIND IN PLACE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME DRIZZLE SHOULD BE THE RULE. KEPT CLOSE TO THE NAM 2M TEMPERATURES FOR MAXES TUESDAY AS THE PRESENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND A NORTHEAST WIND SHOULD KEEP HIGHS ON THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. NOT A VERY NICE DAY AS COMPARED TO WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY...COOL TEMPERATURES AND SOME CLOUDINESS SHOULD PERSIST. THE SURFACE RIDGING FINALLY LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL MEAN HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS. COULD SEE SOME FOG AGAIN TONIGHT AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY... EXPECT MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AND DRIZZLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LONG TERM...IFR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH FOG/DRIZZLE/STRATUS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS FORESEEN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE WATERS TODAY BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 KT. AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY... NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT AND WILL REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. LONG TERM...PROBABLY SCA CONDITIONS IN STIFF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. GUSTS AROUND 30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BUILDING SEAS.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...KIMBLE SHORT TERM...KIMBLE LONG TERM...EKSTER

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