Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 252050 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 350 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY THEN RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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A COLD FRONT CROSSED THE REGION TODAY BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 BELOW IN THE NORTH HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD DECREASE KEEPING WIND CHILLS ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL VERY BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 20S.
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&& MID RANGE /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/.../WINTER STORM/... A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL ALREADY BE AFFECTING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION SPREADS SNOW NORTHWARD. POTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO 983 MB BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVERHEAD. THE STORM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12 HRS AS THE TROUGH BATTLES WITH DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. THIS STALLING IS KEY TO THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND ULTIMATELY SNOW THAT WILL FALL OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CHARACTER OF THE SNOW WILL BE FLUFFY AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY. WENT WITH A 15:1 SLR ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE GONE HIGHER. THE MESOSCALE BANDING IS HIGHLIGHTED BY PETERSSON FRONTOGENESIS... WHICH SHOWS THE BEST BANDING SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS BEFORE CURVING NE THROUGH SOUTHERN NH NEAR CHICHESTER... AND THEN ENE TOWARDS FRYEBURG AND WATERVILLE MAINE. THIS WILL BE CONSISTENT WITH THE COASTAL/WARM FRONT AS IT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY INLAND. ITS IN THIS BAND WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL FALL... LIKELY AROUND TWO FEET. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS MAY BE FOUND IN SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE WHERE THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING COINCIDES WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. GEFS AND NAM ANOMALIES FOR 925 AND 850 MB U AND EVEN V WIND COMPONENTS OF MORE THAN 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL SHOW THIS STORM WILL PACK VERY STRONG WINDS... LIKELY CAUSING WIND DAMAGE AS THESE WINDS MIX EASILY TO THE SURFACE IN PRECIPITATION LOADING. FOR THIS REASON FELT CONFIDENT GOING WITH BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR THE COAST AND THOSE COUNTIES ALONG THE COAST. ELSEWHERE... WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 10-20" WARRANTS WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS. OVER THE WATERS WE HAVE ISSUED GALES AND STORM FORCE WARNINGS. SHADOWING ON THE WESTWARD SLOPES OF THE WHITES SHOULD GIVE SOMEWHAT LOWER TOTALS TO ADJOINING COUNTIES.. AND FOR THIS REASON HAVE GONE WITH ONLY AN ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN COOS. THE STORM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THURSDAY WILL SEE RAPID CLEARING AS THE NOREASTER TRACKS OUT OF THE AREA. THE HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER WAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM... AND HAVE LEANED ON A WEAKER NORTHERLY TRACK FOR THIS UPDATE. THE STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH CLEARING FOR THE WEEKEND.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. LONG TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS BEGINNING MON NIGHT THRU TUE...AS COASTAL LOW PRES SPREADS SNWFL ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY SNWFL AND WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WIND DOWN TUE EVENING...BUT SN LINGERS INTO WED MORNING WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY SEE NE GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS DURING THE DAY TUE.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE FOR THIS EVENING. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN THE BAYS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURE DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. LONG TERM...STRONG LOW PRES S OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS TO THE OUTER WATERS TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. A GALE WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAYS DURING THIS TIME.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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TIDES ARE RELATIVELY LOW IN THE ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE HOWEVER PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A STORM SURGE OF UP TO 2 FEET. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WAVES OF 15 TO 20 FEET OFF SHORE MAY PRODUCE FLOODING AND SPLASHOVER AT HIGH TIDE. AT PORTLAND HIGH TIDE IS 10.0 FT AT 420AM TUESDAY... 9.1FT AT 453AM TUESDAY AND 9.8FT AT 523AM WEDNESDAY.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012>014. BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018>028. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028. NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-011-012-015. BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ010-013-014. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ014. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153. STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...HANES NEAR TERM...CURTIS SHORT TERM...CURTIS LONG TERM...CURTIS/HANES AVIATION...CURTIS/HANES MARINE...CURTIS/HANES TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CURTIS

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