Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 300704 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 304 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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WE`LL SEE WEAK RIDGING TODAY AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CLOUDS WERE SCATTERING OUT OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 06Z WITH APPROACH OF THE RIDGE. WITH OUR NARROW TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD...THAT SHOULD SPELL SOME EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS. EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF...AND WE`LL SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF SUNSHINE BEFORE THE RIDGE EXITS THE COAST AND OPENS THE DOOR FOR CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY GIVE RISE TO A FEW SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDER VICINITY OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY TOWARDS EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY DAY ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. THE WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. FOR NOW I`VE LIMITED ENHANCED WORDING TO GUSTY WINDS GIVEN CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 70S.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT... BRINGING ANY LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO AN END. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS EASTWARD OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S DURING THE DAY AND 50S AT NIGHT... A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFFSHORE OF CAPE COD ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE LOOKS QUITE WEAK AND WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO AVOID SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY SATURDAY. WITH ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP. SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WHILE COASTAL MAINE TOPS OUT IN THE LOW 70S. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY FOR ALL THOSE WHO MAY BE CHOOSING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO CELEBRATE THE 239TH ANNIVERSARY OF UNITED STATES INDEPENDENCE. AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR BUILDING WARMTH OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY... THOUGH AN ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPS COASTAL MAINE COOLER. THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THU/...ISOLATED BRIEF IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE IN FOG THROUGH 11Z OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH 22Z. SCATTERED MVFR AFTER 22Z IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD MVFR EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT NIGHTTIME VALLEY FOG AT WHITEFIELD AND LEBANON.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...QUIET TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE TRAVERSE THE WATERS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD ON SATURDAY BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON GULF OF MAINE WEATHER. FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 3 FEET.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ KIMBLE/SCHWIBS

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