Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 291909 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 309 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. THE CIRCULATION BETWEEN THESE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AT 18Z...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A COOL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT AN EXPANDING AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT...ALONG WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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LINGERING CLOUDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AT TIMES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BY TO OUR NORTH. HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SOME IMPROVEMENT...IT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH CLEARING THERE WILL BE AS SFC FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND...AND 500MB LOW TRACKS OVER NEW ENGLAND. SFC FLOW WILL HOLD NE AND WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ADVECTING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH OVER LABRADOR AND THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE...THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL STILL PRODUCE SOME UPSLOPING OVER THE FOOTHILLS. AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHRA OR SPOTTY DZ...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING AS THE COLD AIR LYR DEEPENS...AND THE MIXING WILL ACTUALLY ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS THAN TUE...MAINLY 60 TO 65 IN MOST SPOTS. THE CT VLY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MOST SUNNY AND THE WARMEST AS THE DOWNSLOPE DRIES THINGS OUT. ON THU...COMPACT AND WEAK 500MB REX BLOCK IS OVER THE REGION. AGAIN WILL LIKE SEE SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT MOST PLACES WILL SEE P/SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS AGAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BY FRIDAY THE BLOCK BREAKS DOWN AND LOW HEAD EAST ALLOWING FOR A MORE S FLOW TO DEVELOP...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS ON THE SUNNIER OTHER...OTHER THAN CIRRUS LATE...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST FRI NIGHT...AS IMPRESSIVE CLOSED 500MB LOW DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST BY SATURDAY AND THEN TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE AND SHIFTS NE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY....WHILE MAIN UPPR LVL HEADS NE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY. THIS SHOULD BRING A DECENT RAFL INTO THE REGION...AT LEAST JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT OR SAT NIGHT. 12Z EURO EVEN MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PRIOR RUNS AND CLEARS THINGS OUT QUICKLY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS PRES IN FORM THE S BY MONDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...A FEW GUSTS FROM THE NE TO NR 25 KT THROUGH 22Z VCNTY OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...THEN DEVELOPING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG TONIGHT WITH IFR AND LCL LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...IMPROVING TO MVFR TUESDAY MORNING. A RETURN OF IFR LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT IN STRATUS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG. LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER IN DZ/FG TUE MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT KLEB/KHIE...AND WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER ON TUE ELSEWHERE. FLIGHT RESTRICITIONS...COULD LINGER IN THESE AREAS WED NIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE VFR RETURN FOR THU/FRI. SHRA AND LOW CIGS WILL LKLY CAUSE RESTRICTIONS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME ON SATURDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE MARKEDLY WITH PASSAGE OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT INTO TONIGHT ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. LONG TERM...GUSTY NE FLOW PERSISTS WED INTO THU...BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA LVLS. SEAS MAY COME UP ABV 5 FT AGAIN ON THU AS SWELL FROM COASTAL LOW WELL TO THE S MOVES IN. WINDS SHIFT TO S-SW FRIDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ SCHWIBS/CEMPA

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