Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KGYX 171641 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1141 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND DRIVE A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION TUESDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1137 AM UPDATE... TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN MOST AREAS. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...TWEAKED WEATHER AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS. 847 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT PTYPE TRENDS. SNOW AND SLEET CONTINUES TO CHANGE TO RAIN OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AS OF 14Z. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN...MAINLY IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...THIS HAS BEEN VERY BRIEF AND THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE HAS BEEN SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN. WINTER WX ADVIS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE COMBO OF SNOW AND ICE. PREV DISC... 555 AM...I ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ONSET BASED ON RADAR TREND AND LATEST METAR REPORTS FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE. PREV DISC... SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER OVERNIGHT THEN EXPECTED BECAUSE OF CLOUD COVER. WHILE WE`LL SEE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING...THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE SHOULD WARM QUICK ENOUGH TO LARGELY MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AS PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS FROM FROZEN TO LIQUID TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ADVISORY AREA REMAINS UNCHANGED WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AND A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN COOS COUNTY NEW HAMPSHIRE REGARDING THE TIMING AND CHANGEOVER OF THE PRECIPITATION. A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CAN`T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT THERE...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIX OF FREEZING AND FROZEN PRECIPITATION MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED THERE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MID 30S IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA TO AROUND 40 ELSEWHERE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE IS OVER QUEBEC THIS EVENING WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERING WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA...OTHERWISE JUST RAIN WILL BE FALLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS...MAINLY EAST OF PORTLAND COULD GUST TO 35 MPH IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH MOUNTAIN SECTIONS WILL LIKELY SEE A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. ON TUESDAY...A BLUSTERY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER CONNECTICUT VALLEY...THE WESTERLY TRAJECTORY OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD BRING LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE PLUME INTO THIS AREA WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS THERE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... TUE NIGHT THE REGION WILL BE UNDER FAST...CONFLUENT FLOW. THIS WILL HELP HEIGHTS TO RISE SLIGHTLY AND ALLOW SOME SFC RIDGING TO MOVE INTO PLACE. HOWEVER GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE CROSS BARRIER FLOW AND THE GREAT LAKES PUMPING MOISTURE INTO THE AIR MASS AT LEAST SCHC POP WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MTNS ACROSS NH. THIS SHOULD RELAX SOMEWHAT BY WED...AS NEXT S/WV TROF DIVES OUT OF CANADA. SFC RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE AREA...AND HEIGHTS RISE THEIR HIGHEST BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR SETTLES IN. WAA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS S/WV SHOULD PRETTY EFFICIENTLY PRODUCE SOME SNWFL LATE WED INTO THU. EVEN WITH MEAGER MOISTURE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO COULD BE ENOUGH TO WHITEN THE GROUND. IN ITS WAKE...COLD HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS QUICKLY RETREATS THOUGH...AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A RETURN TO MORE ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS TIME PERIOD...AS PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AND AS WARMER AIR TRIES TO RETURN THIS COULD LEAD TO A WINTRY EVENT...AT LEAST IN PART. NWP DOES HAVE A SRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING NEWD WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE LATE IN THE PERIOD ATTM. HOWEVER THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION AT THIS TIME RANGE. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH POCKETS OF LIFR IN LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG. MVFR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY IN MTN SNOW SHOWERS. SFC WND GUST TO 25 KT POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...THEN AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON. LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE EXTENDED. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SCT IFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ON THE NW SLOPES OF THE HIGH TERRAIN NEAR KHIE. COLD FNT CROSSES THE AREA THU...WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CONDITIONS WILL AT LEAST BRIEFLY AFFECT ALL TERMINALS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONT WILL GALES LIKELY BY LATER TUESDAY. SCA ISSUED THIS MORNING WITH GALE WATCH FOR LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH EARLY WED. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009. NH...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.