Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 201621 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1221 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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1215 PM...FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I ADJUSTED HOURLY AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN MANY AREAS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. PREV DISC... 1010 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT SATELLITE TRENDS AND CURRENT MESONET IN 1ST PERIOD GRIDS. PREV DISC... 0550 AM... JUST ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY STILL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN MIDCOAST BUT THAT SHOULD CLEAR NEXT HOUR OR SO AS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS IN MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS MORNING WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH IN MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50 MTNS AND NORTH AND THE 60S ELSEWHERE. SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR TOWARD EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH SUBSIDING WINDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... WITH CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEW POINTS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. MORNING TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THOSE AREAS AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. PLAN TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH WITH THE PACKAGE THIS MORNING FOR THOSE AREAS. TEMPS SHOULD RISE QUICKLY THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS MORNING REGARDING THE FORECAST THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. S/WV TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION AND DRIVE A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD THRU THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE FROPA FRI...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY POOR...SO WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. UPPER LOW CROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...SO SHOWER THREAT WON/T END UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON WHEN HEIGHTS RISE ALONG WITH S/WV RIDGING ALOFT. ANOTHER NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL SEND A WEAKER COLD FRONT OUR WAY SUN. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS TO BE ON THE MOISTURE STARVED SIDE OF THINGS...SO HAVE KEPT THINGS AT LOW CHANCE POP OR LOWER. AT THIS POINT THE FORECAST BEGINS TO DIVERGE. 20.00Z GFS PREFERS TO STALL THE FRONT OVER THE SRN FORECAST AREA...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR MOISTURE RETURNING NWD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF WRN ATLANTIC HIGH PRES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 20.00Z ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...WITH SUPPORT FROM THE CMC...WASHES THE COLD FRONT OUT MORE AND INSTEAD FOCUSES ON A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE PCPN BE MORE SHOWERY AND DIURNAL IN NATURE. GIVEN THAT THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS ROUGHLY A 2:1 BLEND OF DRIER AND WARMER TO THE ALTERNATIVE GFS...THIS SEEMS LIKE A FAIR STARTING POINT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...GUSTY WEST WINDS TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXCEPT SOME IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING IN FOG/STRATUS MIDCOAST REGION. LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AT THIS TIME AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ENOUGH IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTS TO PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD MARINE FOG. BEST CHANCE FOR CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS FRI. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THERE IS A WINDOW FRI AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH 25 KTS AND 5 FT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. && .FIRE WEATHER... WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WITH RH 25 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN NH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THAT AREA. WILL LET DAY SHIFT COORDINATE WITH NH OFFICIALS ON FUEL MOISTURE AND ANY NEED FOR A WARNING IN THOSE AREAS. IN OTHER AREAS, RH IS A BIT HIGHER SO DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WARNING IS NEEDED, BUT WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY LEADING TO SOMEWHAT DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014. NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NHZ001>007. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ ES

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