Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 251054 AAA AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 654 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND STALL THERE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL MAINE. SOME OF THIS COULD FALL AS SNOW. COOL HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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7 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. HAVE ISSUED A STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER OVER NORTHERN MAINE IN COORDINATION WITH THE FOREST SERVICE DUE TO DRY FUELS AND LOW RH VALUES. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S IN THIS AREA. TO THE SOUTH A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... TODAY WILL BE THE LAST VERY WARM DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AT LEAST UNTIL THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. FOR THE COAST AND INLAND AREAS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN A VERY DRY AIRMASS. NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP COOLER AIR BANKED IN ACROSS THE GREENS AND WHITES WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 40S TODAY. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...AND THESE MARGINAL WINDS COMBINED WITH CRITICAL RH VALUES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ESCALATED FIRE DANGER DAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MARCHES TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE APPROACHING SYSTEM STAYS MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH AND TRAVELS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INITIALLY WE WILL SEE RAIN SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NH LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE IT WILL NOT MAKE MUCH HEADWAY UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. WHEN THE PRECIPITATION DOES ARRIVE IT WILL COME IN AS A WEDGE...KEEPING AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM PITTSBURG NH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO BAR HARBOR ME DRY AND COOLER...WHILE SOUTH OF THIS LINE PRECIPITATION AND WARMER TEMPERATURES (ALTHOUGH NOT TOO WARM) WILL PREVAIL. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WET BULB IN THE DRY AIRMASS...AND IN A CRUEL TURN OF EVENTS ALLOW RAIN TO TURN TO SNOW OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NH AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE. SEVERAL MODELS POINT TO A 2-4" SNOWFALL...WHICH IS NOTABLE ON THE HEELS OF A RED FLAG DAY. THERE WILL BE A FLUFF FACTOR AND HAVE KEPT AN AVERAGE OF 3" IN THE GRIDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S NORTH...WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER AND NO PRECIPITATION... TO THE MID 30S SOUTH UNDER CLOUD COVER. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH TO THE MID 40S NORTH. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO MOSTLY RAIN ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER SPOTS WILL HOLD ONTO SNOW LONGER. AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES INTO THE NORTHEAST THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND END OVER THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW STALLED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP US COOL AND ON THE DRY SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A FEW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...OTHERWISE WE`LL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER LOW AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES THAT WILL BE DEFLECTED TO OUR SOUTH. THE END RESULT WILL BE A SURFACE RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT...BUT MODELS SUGGEST THAT WON`T HAPPEN UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND OPENING THE DOOR FOR THE ARRIVAL OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KTS TODAY AT TIMES. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN VFR DECKS AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOME VFR -RA IS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE 24 HR TAF CYCLE (~3-6Z) FOR KMHT...KLEB...KCON...AND KPSM. LONG TERM... NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL IMPACTS DUE TO WEATHER EXPECTED. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS APPROACH THE 15-20 KT RANGE IN THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL STAY WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA. LONG TERM... WED NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE BAYS. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS ALL OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL EITHER BE TOO COOL OR WINDS TOO LIGHT FOR A RED FLAG TO BE ISSUED FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE AS WELL AS NORTHERN MAINE. HOWEVER HAVE ISSUED A STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER OVER NORTHERN MAINE IN COORDINATION WITH THE FOREST SERVICE. NH SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND BE EVEN COOLER. WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE AND TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60 DEGREES OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF MAINE HAVE CREATED THE NEED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING IN THIS AREA. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND EVEN SNOW IS LIKELY TUESDAY.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ012>014-018>022-025>028. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HANES LONG TERM...SCHWIBS

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