Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 280234 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1034 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
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1030PM UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS. SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN SPILLING INTO THE AREA AND THIS MAY ACT TO PREVENT TOO MUCH MORE COOLING AND ANY FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER... CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY NEAR FORECAST LOWS IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY... SO HAVE UPDATED TO LOWER FORECAST LOWS THERE BY A FEW DEGREES... DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THE SUN SETS. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE STRONGEST GRADIENT PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR... HOWEVER RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE LIMITED BY DEWPOINTS...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING RELATIVELY MILD. TUESDAY WILL SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOP AHEAD OF A CYCLONE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S. BY AFTERNOON THE ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS... WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG AND DRIZZLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE LOWEST LEVELS SLOWLY REACH SATURATION.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MODELS INDICATE AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER COMING UP. FIRST A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND OFF THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ARE ABOUT THE SAME ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. EXPECT A FAIRLY MILD DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 60S IN MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME COLDER AIR WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY A BIT BELOW NORMAL BUT OTHERWISE A NICE DAY THURSDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY A SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND CUTS OFF. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST. GFS HAS A DOUBLE BARRELED SYSTEM WITH THE THE STRONGEST SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR NYC AND MOVES IT DUE EAST. ECMWF DEVELOPS LOW FARTHER EAST. BOTH MODELS BRING PRECIPITATION OVER US. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE CERTAINLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANY SNOW EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES COULD COOL ENOUGH AT NIGHT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A MIX NEAR THE COAST BUT DURING THE DAY IT APPEARS AS THOUGH A COLD RAIN WILL FALL SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. AS ALWAYS THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SURFACE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAIN/SNOW ACTUALLY FALLS.
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&& .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AFTER 21Z TOMORROW LONG TERM...EXPECT VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATER FRIDAY WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR THE BAYS AS WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DROP OFF. WILL KEEP THE SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS TROUGH THIS EVENING AS WITH THE COLD ADVECTION WE ARE STILL SEEING A FEW GUSTS ABOVE CRITERIA. QUIET WATERS FOR TUESDAY. LONG TERM...SSW WINDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY MAY GUST TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA. BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT COLD ADVECTION OCCURS AND MAY ALLOW THE WNW FLOW TO GUST INTO SCA CRITERIA. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH BY THURSDAY MORNING. SCA/GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152- 154. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE

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