Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 011403 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1003 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OUT TO SEA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SHIFTING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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950 AM...CURRENTLY A BRIEF LULL IN THE HEAVIER AND STEADIER PRECIPITATION...AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. PRECIPITATION WILL PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN WITH ITS APPROACH. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE...I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS AND TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET. PREV DISC... LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY PRODUCING RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. RAIN HAS OVER-SPREAD MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHWEST MAINE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK. SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM WEST WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL WILL REMAIN GENERALLY STEADY THROUGH THE DAY ONLY CHANGING BY A FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. STILL LOOKING FOR BEST QPF IN SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES WHERE STORM TOTALS MAY APPROACH 3 INCHES OR BETTER BY TUESDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING ISSUES BECAUSE OF LONG DURATION AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS OF LATE....BUT SOME POORLY DRAINED AREAS MAY SEE SOME BRIEF MINOR FLOODING IN OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL ONLY DROP BACK INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO WIND DOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. EXPECT RAIN TO TAPER TO SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING BUT LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MID-LONG RANGE MODEL TRENDS ARE TO STRENGTHEN RIDGING OVER SRN NOAM...IN TYPICAL WARM SEASON PATTERN. THIS WILL ALSO TEND TO SHIFT THE COLDEST AIR POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. SENSIBLY...THIS MEANS THAT ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE SHALLOWER 500 MB WAVES BRING SOME COLD FRONTS THRU...IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD BEHIND THEM. IT ALSO MEANS AFTER OUR EARLY WEEK WET PATTERN...WE GO BACK TO DRIER PATTERN THRU NEXT WEEKEND. 500 MB TROUGH PASSES TO OUR N TUE NIGHT AND THIS WILL SHIFT THE FLOW TO NW AND DRY THINGS OUT...WITH SOME CLEARING AND LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S. WED WILL SEE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN BENEATH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...WHICH IS BE ROUGHLY 5-8 F BLO NORMAL. THE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT HOLDS INTO THU AS LOW-MID LVL FLOW BACKS SW AND PULLS SOME WARMER AIR IN WITH HIGHS PUSHING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPR 70S INLAND AND TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST. A WEAK 500MB WAVE PASSES TO OUR N ON THU NIGHT AND FRI AND PULLS A COLD FRONT THRU BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF SHOT OF CHILLY AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...THAT WILL MAINLY BE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS FLOW SHIFTS QUICKLY BACK TO SW AND TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL ON SAT UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH FAIR WX AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR VSBY WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LONG TERM...ANY LINGERING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY AT KHIE OR KAUG...WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TUE EVENING. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THRU FRI...ALTHOUGH VLY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KLEB/KHIE A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE WED/THU NIGHT. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BELOW 5 FT TUE NIGHT AND CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SAFELY BLO SCA CRITERIA WED THRU FRI. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO FIRE ISSUES THROUGH TUESDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
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&& $$ ES

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