Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 282030 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 330 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SNOWFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW MIDWEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE MIDCOAST REGION OF MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND A FRESH SNOWPACK WILL LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. JUST ABOUT ALL COMMUNITIES WILL BE AT OR BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHORELINE TOWNS REMAINING ABOVE ZERO FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
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A SHORT WAVE WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA ON THURSDAY. OVERALL...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. THEREAFTER...THE FLOW WILL BECOME NEUTRALLY TILTED BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUAL CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE COOL ON THURSDAY. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE ERN BLOCK...PART OF THE CONTINUAL +PNA PATTER AT 500MB HAS SET UP TO PRODUCE A STEADY WAVE GENERATOR OVER FAR WRN CANADA...WHICH WILL SEND WAVES THRU THE BASE OF THE COLD AND LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM. LOOK FOR A COLD AND SOMEWHAT ACTIVE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...REACHING THE GULF OF ME FRIDAY. LIGHT SNOW BREAKS OUT FROM W TO E THU NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF UPPER LVL ENERGY DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY...500MB LOW TILTS NEGATIVE AND STARTS CLOSING OFF. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC LOW TO INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO ENHANCE SNOW AS MID-LVL DEFORMATION ENHANCES AND BANDING DEVELOPS. LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL BE TOO FAR E FOR THE HEAVIER SNOWS TO PUSH BACK W INTO NH...BUT THEY WILL LKLY MOVE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND MAYBE WRN ME FRI AFT AND EVE. A WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR BANDING IN ME ZONES. SEVERAL HOURS OF HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH 6 TO PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 10 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS. IN NH...WE COULD SEE ADVISORY LEVELS SNOWS LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THE LOW SHIFTS E BY SAT MORNING AND THE MID-UPPER LVL SYSTEM BEGINS TO FILL...SO ALTHOUGH SOME -SN MAY LINGER INTO SAT MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN ERN ZONES...EXPECT NW FLOW TO TAKE OVER AND CAA ADVECTION TO BEGIN IN EARNEST WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. COLD AIR SETTLES BACK IN SAT NIGHT AND SUN...ALTHOUGH WEAK HIGH PRES WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS AND EURO NOW AGREE IN KEEPING SFC LOW WELL OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE THE CMC DEVELOPS FAIRLY POTENT COASTAL LOW. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE SPREADS REMAIN QUITE HIGH WHEN IT COMES TO SFC LOW POSITION...SO HAVE STAYED THE COURSE WITH THE CHC POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME MODERATION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. LONG TERM...IFR CONDS OR LOWER LKLY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AT ALL TERMINALS. SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE AT NH SITES FRI NIGHT...BUT WILL PROB FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LINGER IN ME THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS ON SAT. HOWEVER...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND THE PENOBSCOT BAY TONIGHT...SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR SCAS. SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET AS WELL. LONG TERM...GALES WILL LKLY BE NEEDED IN NW FLOW FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>152- 154.
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