Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 241858 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 258 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will hold off the east coast tonight and Thursday as a cold front approaches from the west. The cold front will slowly cross the region Thursday night and Friday. High pressure will build in from the west Friday night and Saturday. High pressure will shift off to the east on Sunday as a cold front moves in from the west. The front will cross the region sunday night followed by high pressure on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure off the New England coast will gradually shift east overnight. Just looking for variable high clouds overnight as a slow moving cold front approaches from the west. Low temps overnight will range from the mid 50s north to the mid 60s south. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Clouds will thicken over the region on Thursday as a pre-frontal trough approaches from the west. Have gone with low chance pops for northern and western zones Thursday afternoon but any activity will likely be light and spotty. Best instability generally remains west of the forecast area during the day but can`t rule out a stray thunderstorm in far northwest zones by late in the day. Highs on Thursday will range through the 80s. Cold front will push into the region after midnight Thursday night. Expect scattered showers and some isolated thunderstorms overnight. Lows across the region will range from the mid 60s north to the lower 70s south. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The upper level flow will shift from zonal to slight ridging over the weekend. This will bring a weak few short waves through the region, the first of which will drive a cold front through New England. The front should move offshore by early afternoon...and while some thunderstorms are possible...timing of the front and antecedent cloud cover should keep them to a minimum. PW values top out around 2" during this time which is about 200% of normal. The moisture stream will be mostly tropical in nature along with some modified Pacific moisture. The NAM has much higher QPF than either the CMC,GFS or Euro. It does not appear to be having trouble with convective feedback...but amounts over an inch don`t look especially favorable given the forcing. The weekend will be warm and dry. Sunday night into Monday night a frontal system will shift east-southeast as another, deeper trough moves through. This trough will serve to push mid level ridging south back towards Bermuda as a cold front pushes through Monday night. Like the previous frontal passage this will have little impact on temperatures but may bring scattered showers and thunderstorms. Gaston is expected to remain east of Bermuda through early next week. So far models are keeping it wrapped up and tracking along the remnants of the front that will affect our area Monday (see above). The Bermuda high will also arrest its movement. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term...VFR tonight through Thursday. Areas of MVFR/IFR ceilings and vsby developing Thursday night. Long Term...There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms early on Friday as a cold front moves through the area. This could bring MVFR conditions at times, especially in the mountains. VFR conditions dominate through the weekend although this time of year early morning fog is almost always a possibility at Whitefield and Lebanon. Another frontal passage will cross the region on Monday with scattered showers creating periodic MVFR conditions. && .MARINE... Short Term...Winds will approach sca levels on Thursday but will be letting the midnight shift make the final decision on where and when. Long Term...Borderline advisory level wind gusts possible through early Friday ahead of the cold front mainly over the outer waters. Once the front moves through there could be a brief period of gusty winds out of the northwest but in general wind speeds should be diminishing. Waves should remain in the 3-5 ft range. High pressure over the Gulf of Maine brings light winds and calming seas through the weekend. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Sinsabaugh/Hanes

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