Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 270421 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1221 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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1217 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND TO INGEST THE 04Z MESONET INTO NEAR TERM GRIDS. PREV DISC... 945 PM UPDATE...JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER. STRATO-CU IS A LITTLE STUBBORN TO MOVE OUT OF SOUTHERN NH AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE GRIDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE IT MOVES OUT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RADIATE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE WE HAVE A SNOWPACK. SOME REFREEZING OF SNOWMELT MAY CAUSE LOCALLY SLIPPERY TRAVEL. 6 PM UPDATE...HAVE TOUCHED UP THE FORECAST A LITTLE BIT BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM THE NORTH AS WE CONTINUE TO DRY OUT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY GROUND FOG TONIGHT IN AREAS WITH SNOW COVER. PREVIOUSLY... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE FAST MOVING CLIPPER THAT PRODUCED THE WINTRY WEATHER NOW RAPIDLY EXITING TO THE EAST. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE COAST BY NO LATER THAN 21Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODELS. THIS EVENING SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH A COLD NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS DROPPING TO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON A COLD AND DRY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL PERSIST WED AND WED NIGHT DRAWING DOWN MORE COLD CANADIAN AIR. THE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM CANADA ON THURSDAY. THIS WEAK RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BRING A SHOWER OR A FLURRY...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE BY MONDAY...WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS BEING THE FASTEST AND MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH A SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE THE GEFS AND EURO IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM...HANGING LOW PRESSURE WELL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH THE EURO BEING THE SLOWEST. WITH THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH...AND SUCH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER OUR AREA...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR WHERE THE PRECIP SETS UP IN THE NORTHEAST. && .AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE RAPIDLY IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 22Z. BY LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH WED MAINLY VFR CLR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE ON MONDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR FOR A PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SEAS AND WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG TERM...SEAS AND WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY INCREASE BY MONDAY WITH THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE INTO THE SCA RANGE. && .FIRE WEATHER... A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVENT RH VALUES FROM DROPPING TO CRITICAL LEVELS FOR ANY RED FLAG CONDITIONS EVEN THOUGH THE NORTHWEST WINDS MAY REACH THE 10-20 MPH RANGE IN SOME GUSTS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ ES

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