Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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322 FXUS61 KGYX 300748 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 348 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A front stalled to our south will return north as a warm front today. This front will be preceded by showers and a few thunderstorms through Monday morning. A warm humid air mass will follow the warm front on Monday afternoon with another round of showers and thunderstorms expected. Tropical moisture from the remnants of Bonnie will be entrained in the frontal system and could produce heavy rainfall and localized drainage flooding on Memorial day. Two cold fronts will cross the area Monday and Tuesday night with high pressure to follow Wednesday and Thursday. An upper level trough could produce some rain towards the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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At 3am... an area of rain was crossing Vermont and Southern New England into southwest New Hampshire. This rain will continue to move northeastwards crossing the southern portion of the forecast area early this morning. The rain is being driven by two factors. To the south, the remnantsof Tropical Depression Bonnie is streaming moist tropical air northward on the west side of a Bermuda high. Satellite shows PWAT values as high as 2in in this air mass with values around 1.5 inches across much of New England. To the west a short wave trough is moving out of the Great Lakes into western New York. These two systems are creating a squeeze pushing the moisture northwards up the coast. While PWAT is high... the area of rain is now mainly stratiform forced by the synoptic squish and thus the concern of heavy rainfall has abated as the rain continues to move. THe early morning timing will also keep any convective threat to a minimum. Today will be a bit of a paradox as rain creates sun which in turn creates rain again. Ahead of the early morning rain the marine layer is well entrenched along the coast with widespread drizzle and fog. The morning rain will serve to move the marine layer out allowing sun to break out from west to east across the region this afternoon. The sun will subsequently destabilize the region...allowing a line of thunderstorms to form along the front which will cross the area late today. The thunderstorms will form around mid afternoon as temperatures rise to near 80 in interior New Hampshire and the CT river valley. CAPE values of up to 1000 J/kg combined with an 80kt jet streak overhead will generate sufficient shear for a few severe thunderstorms to develop with damaging winds and small hail being the main threats.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Overnight skies will clear and showers and thunderstorms will die off as the front moves out of the area. Residual moisture will allow patchy fog to form...especially in favored valley locations. Tuesday will be mostly sunny with just a slight chance of upslope showers in the afternoon in the mountains along the Canadian border. Light northwesterly flow in the wake of the front will be enough to keep the sea breeze at bay allowing temperatures to climb into the 80s for all but the immediate coastline.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Dry weather will continue into the midweek as high pressure gradually builds in behind the departing front. Weak northerly flow will veer to the east by Wednesday afternoon bringing in a sea breeze. Temperatures should reach the 70s however with inland areas a few degrees warmer than the coast. Onshore flow strengthens Thursday with perhaps some drizzle... stratus... and fog allowing readings to only reach the 60s for much of the area. The remnants of the very weak TD Bonnie will move off the Carolinas Thursday night allowing a baroclinic zone to shift towards the eastern seaboard. This will introduce some heavier showers for Friday into the weekend with highs once again in the 60s and 70s. During this time overnight lows will be in the 40s and 50s...or in a word...normal.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Short Term...widespread LIFR conditions will continue for the next several hours. Rain moving in from the Southwest will increase visibilities at MHT CON and PSM by 14Z and at Portland by around 16Z. Conditions will improve to VFR across the area by 18Z. This afternoon scattered thunderstorms and showers may impact HIE LEB and AUG. Monday night expect valley fog for LEB and to a lesser extent HIE CON. All areas will be VFR for Tuesday. Long Term...VFR for Wednesday. Some MVFR along the coast Thursday in drizzle...stratus...and fog. -SHRA Thursday evening into Friday for all terminals bringing ceilings and visibilities down to MVFR and/or IFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term... Rain and fog for this morning. Fog may lift somewhat mid afternoon before returning overnight. Winds and seas will remain below small craft. Long Term...Generally poor boating conditions from Thursday through the weekend in fog and drizzle as well as showers. Winds and seas will remain below small craft criteria.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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Winds will remain light through the next few days with cooler temperatures and precipitation in the forecast the next two days. This will help keep fire danger in check.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Curtis SHORT TERM...Curtis LONG TERM...Hanes

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