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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 181934
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
334 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will hold over the region through tonight as Jose
approaches from the south. Jose will move south of Cape Cod
Tuesday and Wednesday and then drift south Thursday. High
pressure builds over the region Thursday and through the
weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Patchy dense fog with become more widespread with time later
this evening as dew points remain in the 60s under light winds.
The most dense fog will likely be along the coast once again.
Temperatures will not move all that much with readings holding
near the dew points.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Jose will continue to move northward on Tuesday. Expect areas of
dense fog and drizzle in the morning to be replaced by periods
of light rain approaching the coastline during the afternoon. A
northeast flow should develop as well. With the precipitation
and gradient developing, some of the fog will lesson and mix
out as visibilities increase.

High surf is expected along the coast with high surf advisories
continuing during the day. These may need to be extended into
Wednesday. Dangerous rip currents are possible.

The rain will spread inland Tuesday night, however drier air
will be entrained into Jose. Some of the outer bands of moisture
may reach south-central areas and dissipate in place due to the
developing dry air in the lower levels.

QPF: Models continue to back off on the rainfall with about a
half inch of rain possible along and near the coast where rain
is needed at this time.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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All indications and models show Jose passing near the 40n70w
benchmark and then east. Southern areas of ME/NH will be on the
northern outer fringe of the system and will receive some much
needed rainfall while over northern areas, they may remain dry.
A very strong blocking high to the north will supply dry air
from the north, this will also help try to suppress the rain
even over southern areas. Winds over land areas may become
breezy over southern areas Wed.

Jose then drifts south Wed night and Thur allowing drier air to
move across the region.

The large blocking high will rebuild over the area Thursday and
thru the weekend so a return to dry and pleasant weather with
mostly suny days and clear nights.

Stayed close to guidance for temps which will average above
normal.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Short Term...IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities tonight in areas
of dense fog. Patchy drizzle over southern sections.

Conditions are slow to improve over the region on Tuesday,
eventually possibly mixing out by late in the day to IFR
conditions. IFR conditions will continue Tuesday night.

Long Term...IFR conditions will persist into early afternoon
Wed. Conditions will become VFR by Wed night and continue VFR
through Saturday.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Short Term...Large, long period swells will enter the Gulf of
Maine tonight. SCAs will remain in effect as winds increase by
Tuesday night as well.

Long Term...Long period swells will continue Wed into Fri as
Jose slowly moves well south of Cape Cod. Northeast winds will
increase Tuesday night into Wednesday as well with northerly SCA
winds expected, some gusts to over 30 kts are possible over the
southernmost outer waters.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Hurricane Jose is forecast to cross the southern New England
waters on Wednesday. This will result in long period swell.
Matrices suggest there will be increased risk for beach erosion
and splash-over during this period. For now, the storm surge
guidance (ESTOFS) is only indicating less than a half foot of
storm surge, so coastal flooding is not expected. However the
large swells may lead to splash-over, mainly along the coast
south of Portland beginning tonight.
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&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for MEZ023>028.
NH...High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for NHZ014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ150>154.
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&&

$$
NEAR TERM...Cannon
SHORT TERM...Cannon
LONG TERM...Marine