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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 200740
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
340 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY BRINGING CLOUDS
AND A FEW SPRINKLES. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ENTRENCHED OFFSHORE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY
AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS AT THE SURFACE TODAY... A MID AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE RISING MOTION TO THE EAST OF THIS
TROUGH IS WHAT IS BRINGING THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA.

WITHIN THE BROADLY RISING MOTION TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH
AXIS... THERE EXIST SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA WHICH ENHANCE THE
RISING MOTION AND LEAD TO A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE TWO
MOST PROMINENT OF THESE EARLY THIS MORNING WERE OVER CAPE COD AND
OVER THE CATSKILLS IN SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE. THESE WAVES ARE
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MOST MODELS ARE ABLE TO RESOLVE
THESE AS WELL. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AREAS OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH OF THESE VORTICITY MAXIMA. ALTHOUGH RADAR
ECHOES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE... THERE HAVE NOT BEEN VERY
MANY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH THEM... GENERALLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THESE
SHOWERS ARE BEING GENERATED IN THE MID LEVELS... 7000 TO 10000
FEET ABOVE THE GROUND.

ALTHOUGH THE GOING FORECAST HAS BEEN DRY FOR TODAY... IT IS
BECOMING DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN THIS FORECAST CONSIDERING THE
ALREADY EXISTING SHOWERS UPSTREAM OF THE REGION BEING TRACKED ON
RADAR. THE AREA OF SHOWERS OVER CAPE COD WILL MOVE MOSTLY
OFFSHORE... THOUGH THEY MAY SCRAPE THE MIDCOAST REGION THIS
MORNING. THE AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE CATSKILLS AND HUDSON VALLEY
ARE TAKING A MORE DIRECT AIM AT THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...
LIKELY MOVING INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AROUND 8 AM AND INTO WESTERN
MAINE LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS TO WEAKEN A BIT AS IT HEADS THIS WAY... BUT LIKELY STILL
WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AS IT ARRIVES. HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE
SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST FOR A WIDE PORTION OF THE AREA SINCE
MANY AREAS MAY NOT SEE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. ALSO INCLUDED UP
TO A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WHERE SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY TO TRACK.

CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES/RAIN SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL
TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT... WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED AS IT DOES SO. THE CLEARING SKY WILL ALLOW
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT THAN HAVE BEEN SEEN
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS... SO FOG WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD. HAVE
INCLUDED PATCHY FOG BY MORNING OVER ALL LAND AREAS... BUT HAVE
INCLUDED GREATER FOG WORDING (INCLUDING DENSE FOG) IN FAVORED
VALLEY AREAS ESPECIALLY THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY BUT DO EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY GROW TO
FORM SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON... SO HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY STAY
DRY. HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
00Z GFS/EURO NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS TO OUR W
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY... LEAVING BEHIND A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED OMEGA BLOCK
WITH TROUGHING ALOFT JUST TO OUR WEST... AND RIDGE STILL HOLDING
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

INITIALLY THE DEEPENING TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST TO
AMPLIFY AND BRING IN WARM AND HUMID AIR... WITH TUESDAY SEEING MOST
EVERYONE GETTING INTO THE 80S... AND THE HOT SPOTS INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. BY WEDNESDAY... SHOULD SEE A FEW SPOTS IN IN SOUTHERN
NH AND INTERIOR SW ME HIT 90. BOTH DAYS WILL FEATURE SW
FLOW... WHICH WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE
COAST FROM CASCO BAY SOUTH... AND HIGHS WILL BE ONLY 75 TO 80 ON
THE MID COAST. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY... COMBINED
WITH HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB ACROSS THE NORTH TO DEVELOP SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS DURING THE
AFTERNOON... WHICH COULD APPROACH THE COAST BY EVENING.

AS THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY... LOOK
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY... WHICH
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THIS WEEK. SHOWERS COULD LINGER
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT... BUT NW FLOW WILL KICK IN BY FRIDAY WITH
SOME DRIER AIR AND HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS FROM
THE WEST ON SATURDAY FOR A FAIR AND SEASONABLY WARM DAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM...ANY MORNING FOG THIS MORNING DISSIPATE BY 13Z. EVEN
THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AS SHOWERS ARE COMING OUT OF A 7000 TO 10000 FT CLOUD LAYER.
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING WHICH WILL MAKE FOG MORE LIKELY
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT LEB AND HIE.

LONG TERM...COASTAL STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING... WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR INCREASING SW FLOW LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEMPA
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/KIMBLE
MARINE...CEMPA/KIMBLE