Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 311945 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 345 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER RAIN TO THE AREA. A FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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FIRST ROUND OF HEAVIER RNFL MOVING THRU THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. HI-RES AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE E...AND LEAVE THE AREA MORE OR LESS SHOWERY THIS EVENING. RNFL WILL BE MOST LIKELY NEAR THE MID LEVEL COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY OVERHEAD. SO LIKELY POP WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL TREND BACK FROM THE CATEGORICAL. NEXT...CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED...WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BACK ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND MOVE EWD OVERNIGHT. BASED POP ON THE TIMING FROM THE 4KM NAM AND ARW/NMM WRF BLENDED WITH GFS/ECMWF. THIS BRINGS NEXT ROUND OF HEAVIER RA IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND FOCUSED PRIMARILY THRU THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA. EXPECTING ANOTHER 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN FORECAST AREA...WITH THE LIGHTEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WRN ME MTNS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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THERE WILL BE NOTHING SUMMERY ABOUT THE FIRST DAY OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SEASON. INSTEAD TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY HOLD STEADY ACROSS THE AREA NEAR 50. THESE READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY...OF 48 AT KPWM SET BACK IN 1946. A STIFF...BITING NE WIND WILL ALSO KEEP CONDITIONS DREARY EVEN IF STEADY RNFL IS NOT OCCURRING AT A GIVEN LOCATION. BEST CHANCE FOR A SALVAGEABLE DAY IS NEAR JACKMAN...ME...WHERE FRONT MAY SAG FAR ENOUGH S TO ALLOW SOME PEEKS OF SUN AND TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. OTHERWISE...THE SECOND WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY MON. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT PRECIP CLEAR OUT A BIT AND FOCUSES ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AGAIN TRENDED POP DOWN TO CHANCE/LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON MON...FROM CATEGORICAL EARLY. MON NIGHT THE FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ONE LOOKS TO BE A TAD FARTHER S...SO HAVE KEPT CATEGORICAL POP TO THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ROUND LOOKS TO BRING ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RNFL TO THE REGION S OF THE MTNS FROM MON MORNING THRU TUE MORNING. DESPITE A GENERAL 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE SHORT TERM...TIMING IS SPACED OUT ENOUGH AND NON-CONVECTIVE IN NATURE SO THAT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE. ANY FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE OF THE POOR DRAINAGE OR URBAN VARIETY AND CAN BE HANDLED WITHOUT A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEKEND. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. THIS IMPULSE WILL FINALLY DRIVE THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT SWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR EXPECTED ACROSS NH AND WRN ME. WIDESPREAD MVFR WILL CONTINUE THRU MON NIGHT...AS WAVES OF LOW PRES BRING BOUTS OF HEAVIER RA TO THE REGION. LOCAL IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY SEE OCCASIONAL NE GUSTS TO 25 KTS MON. LONG TERM... TUE...MVFR WITH LCL IFR CONDS IN RAIN AND FOG. FRI...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA AND TSTMS.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...SCA REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU AT LEAST MON AFTERNOON. DEVELOPING NELY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS...IN ADDITION TO GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. THE BAYS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. LONG TERM... TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE. FRI...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN WHEN PRECIPITATION FINALLY WINDS DOWN LATE TUESDAY.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM...LEGRO SHORT TERM...LEGRO LONG TERM...SCHWIBS AVIATION...LEGRO/SCHWIBS MARINE...LEGRO/SCHWIBS FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO

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