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211
FXUS61 KGYX 061820
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
220 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Heat and humidity persist into Monday with shower and
thunderstorm chances mainly confined to the mountains. A cold
front gradually moves through northern New England Monday night
and Tuesday with showers and storms. The front then stalls near
New England for much of the week, keeping the chance for
showers and storms each day. High pressure then builds in from
the north next weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Isolated to scattered showers will continue to develop across
the mountains and foothills this afternoon. Showers across NY/VT
should move into northern NH over the next few hours. With
building instability, would expect thunder to accompany these as
the afternoon progresses. Lesser coverage is forecast into the
interior and perhaps the coast later this afternoon. With ample
flow aloft, stronger cells will be capable of gusty winds in
addition to brief downpours and lightning.

Rain chances retreat north with the loss of daytime heating this
evening and overnight. Have kept mention of showers/thunder in
along the CAN/US border. Otherwise, tonight will be mild with
lows only falling to the lower 70s and upper 60s. Would expect
some valley fog to develop after midnight, but quickly dissipate
come Monday morning.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Stalled frontal boundary remains NW of the forecast area Monday
with warm air still entrenched. Hot and humid condition are
forecast to continue, and have left the Heat Advisory unchanged.
However, there will be additional cloud cover for the day that
could slow temp rises through the morning and temper MaxTs. Heat
index values will still (un)comfortably make it into the mid 90s
after a mild night.

Shower and thunderstorm coverage has decreased through early
afternoon, but expect PoPs to increase come mid to late
afternoon. The stagnant front will begin to push east and
moisture will be arriving from the south from tropical remnants.
With afternoon instability, can`t rule out a rumble of thunder
across southern NH before the evening progresses and this lift
is lost.

Went below NBM PoPs for Monday night across southern NH and far
southern ME. There will be a window before deeper moisture moves
into this region, either through the incoming front or tropical
remnants. Expect this to encompass much of Monday night, before
chances again increase Tues AM.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Overview...

A slow moving front presses through the forecast area on
Tuesday, and remains stalled south of New England through the
end of the week. A weak wave of low pressure rides along the
front Friday and Saturday, with High pressure then building
southward on Sunday.

Details...

The  slow moving frontal boundary is expected to make gradual
southward progress during the day on Tuesday, like starting from the
mountains and foothills in the morning. Remnant showers and an
isolated thunderstorm from the previous day`s convection are likely
to accompany the front during the morning, with more convection
developing along the front by the late morning and early afternoon
as the front sags south. Temperatures warm into the 80s ahead of the
front during the day, with upper 80s likely across southern NH, and
70s north of the front.

Some moisture from the remnants of Chantal likely becomes
entrained in the front on Tuesday, especially across southern
and coastal areas. Combined with the warmer temperatures, some
stronger storms with gusty winds and heavy downpours will be
possible Tuesday afternoon across southern areas.

By Wednesday and Thursday, the front is expected to stall south
of New England. Behind the front, relatively cooler and drier
conditions follow, but the airmass remains moist enough for
scattered afternoon convection each day, especially across the
higher terrain. Mainly 70s to low 80s are likely on Wednesday,
with some mid 80s possible through the Connecticut River Valley.


Temps cool further on Thursday, with mainly 70s expected.
Showers likely also become more widespread on Thursday as a weak
wave of low pressure moves along the front to the south. A
steadier period of rain is possible Thursday night and Friday as
the low makes it`s closest pass, but there is still a question
as to how far north this area of rain will progress. For now,
scattered showers look most likely, but we`ll continue to
monitor how organized this system can become over the next few
days. By next weekend, the system likely moves away with high
pressure returning at the surface. A trailing upper level low
behind the system keeps the chance for diurnal showers and
storms each day.

At a glance the forecast would look quite dreary for much of
the week, but most of the time conditions will be dry. Daily
showers and storms are likely, especially across the higher
terrain, but would be mostly brief and progressive. We will have
to monitor areas that see repeated rounds of convection through
the week for any flood risk concerns, but that looks to be a
localized threat evolving with time.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Short Term...VFR this afternoon and evening. Brief SHRA or TS
could bring tempo MVFR vis in downpours. These may also bring
locally gusty winds. Showers dissipate this evening, with some
valley fog developing after midnight. MVFR to IFR conditions
develop along the coast and US/CAN border as well as southern NH
Monday night.

Long Term...VFR conditions prevail during the daytime most of
the week, but brief restrictions with afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day at all
terminals, through more likely at interior terminals. Nighttime
valley fog will also be possible each night.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Short Term...SCA continues through midnight tonight. There will
be a lull Monday morning before conditions may again approach
SCA Monday evening and overnight. Surface temperature inversion
may well minimize gusts, keeping these below SCA. This could
also lessen wave height potential. As a result, chose not to
extend the SCA at this time. Stalled front along the US/CAN
border will near the waters Tuesday morning.

Long Term...A cold front crosses the waters on Tuesday, and
then stalls south of the waters through the remainder of the
week. A weak low pressure center likely moves along this front
late in the week and into next weekend. Conditions look to
remain below SCA level from Tuesday through at least the end of
the week.
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&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for MEZ012-018>020-023-024-
     033.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ027-
     028.
NH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for NHZ006>015.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ150-152-154.
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&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Cornwell
SHORT TERM...Cornwell
LONG TERM...Clair