Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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328 FXUS61 KGYX 110851 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 351 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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CLOUDY WEATHER WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD...COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS...THE WIND CHILLS WILL BECOME DANGEROUS FOR A TIME THIS WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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COLD FNT HAS CROSSED THE AREA THIS MORNING...CLEARING OUT SOME OF THE RELATIVELY MOIST AIR THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE. PATCHY FREEZING FOG...OR DEPOSITION ON THE ROADS OUT THERE MAY LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS THRU MORNING AS A RESULT. A SECONDARY COLD FNT IS ALREADY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE W. AHEAD OF IT SOME SN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND ALONG IT ANY SN SHOWER MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY. LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP DURING THE DAY...AND COULD SUPPORT LOCALIZED AREAS OF STRONG LIFT EVEN IF ONLY IN THE LOWEST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS SRN ZONES FOR THAT...AND THE HIGHEST POP WAS PLACED IN THESE AREAS. IF THE HEAVY SN SHOWERS OR SQUALLS DEVELOP IN THIS MANNER...AN INCREASE IN POP IS LIKELY AND SPECIAL WX STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH VERY WEAK S/WV RIDGING SET TO CROSS THE AREA. THE CAA TODAY WILL HAVE SET THE STAGE FOR SOME CHILLY TEMPS RELATIVE TO THE WINTER SO FAR. READINGS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN THE N...WITH SINGLE DIGITS DOWN TO THE COAST. RECOVERY WILL BE TOUGH GOING FRI...WITH TEENS AND 20S DOING IT FOR HIGH TEMPS. WILL KEEP AN EYE TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY...AS LOBE OF POLAR VORTEX PINWHEELS DOWN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. AHEAD OF IT SN SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS RAPIDLY COOLING AIR ALOFT CREATES AN UNSTABLE COLUMN. THOUGH THE BULK OF THE SNWFL SHOULD BE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MAINE BY SATURDAY MORNING. ARCTIC FRONT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL KICK OFF SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS AS IT SWINGS IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT AN AREA OF STEADIER SNOW TO DEVELOP GENERALLY EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN DOWNEAST AND MIDCOAST AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS BUT MIDCOAST AREAS MAY SEE SEVERAL ICHES BY SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND LOWER TEENS SOUTH. INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER DOWNEAST MAINE ON SATURDAY AND WILL LIKELY BACK SNOWFALL WEST INTO WESTERN MAINE AND POSSIBLY EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY. GFS DEPOSITING AN INCH OR MORE OF QPF OVER DOWNEAST SECTIONS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING BUT MAINLY IN CARIBOU`S AREA. MAY NEED ADVISORIES OR POSSIBLY WARNINGS FOR FAR EASTERN MID COAST ZONES WHERE A GOOD FLUFF FACTOR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO POSSIBLY 6 INCHES. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE WESTERN MAINE WILL ESCAPE THE WORST OF THIS ONE WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONNS DURING THE DAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON PRODUCING A LOT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE LIGHT POWDERY SNOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH. EXPECT SNOW TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS OVER DOWNEAST MAINE...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND MIDCOAST LOCATIONS WHERE SEVERAL MORE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIGHT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT PRODUCING A LOT BLOWING AND DRIFTING AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW NORTH AND 5 TO 10 BELOW SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG DURING THE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT THIS WILL HARDLY BUDGE TEMPS WITH READINGS BARELY CLIMBING ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH AND REMAINING IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT PRODUCING ANOTHER VERY FRIDGED NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO SOUTH TO 10 BELOW NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO GET BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS MODELS STILL CONVERGING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. SEEING THE GFS GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARD THE WARMER ECMWF FORECAST FROM LAST NIGHT...BRINGING LOW PRESSURE FARTHER WEST. THIS WOULD LIKELY START PRECIP AS A MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ON TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MIX POSSIBLY HANGING ON FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT IN FAR WESTERN ZONES. LOW PRESURE FORECAST TO PULL AWAY ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW DELIVERING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONE OVER THE MIDCOAST ASSOCIATED WITH GRADUALLY LIFTING FG/STRATUS...AND ANOTHER IN THE MTNS OF NRN NH. OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. EXCEPTION WILL BE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FNT. SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FNT...WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE FNT VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT HIE...AND GUSTY NWLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...SEAS ARE BUILDING AGAIN AS FIRST COLD FNT IS CROSSING THE WATERS. A STRONGER SECONDARY FNT CROSSES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING GALES TO SRN WATERS...AND STRONG SCA CONDITIONS N OF PORTLAND. AS TEMPS FALL OVERNIGHT AND WINDS/SEAS REMAIN UP...FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE LIKELY AND AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS INTO FRI MORNING. LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>153. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154. GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ154.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...LEGRO SHORT TERM...LEGRO LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH AVIATION...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH MARINE...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH

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